5.56 becoming obsolete

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aslrookie

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Mar 19, 2017
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#1
We’ve seen other calibers come to market and be short lived or just used for specific purposes. 300blk is probably the only AR15 caliber that’s actually stuck around and widely used. 6.8, 6.5, 224V, 22 nosler and etc just never really took off.

Now we’re seeing calibers in military contracts other than 5.56 and 7.62. With the advances in body armor, I feel like 5.56 is starting to trend downward and people are wanting more energy on target for both hunting and defense.

There’s a USMC article that says they anticipate 5.56 to be obsolete in the next few years due to the technology advancements in body armor. Maybe it’s time to invest in bulk quantities of harder hitting ammo?
 
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#5
TxWelder35 said:
On the military side he is correct. None of the new weapon systems being developed are in 5.56 and specifically ask for something different than that
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Which makes me wonder if they will just hit the easy button and go 6.8spc or 300blk to keep magazine capacity up or if something different is in the works. I can’t imagine they would prefer a 6.5g reducing mag capacity and not having the energy 7.62 or 6.5cm could produce with the same magazine limits.
 
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#7
aslrookie said:
Which makes me wonder if they will just hit the easy button and go 6.8spc or 300blk to keep magazine capacity up or if something different is in the works. I can’t imagine they would prefer a 6.5g reducing mag capacity and not having the energy 7.62 or 6.5cm could produce with the same magazine limits.
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What they want has been clearly stated in each of the NGWS contracts.
 
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#8
Seeing as how our military has been wearing armor that defeats a 5.56 level threat for over twenty years, I'm going to have to say "Duh, no shit"
However, you're not going to get a cartridge/bullet combo that defeats the current body armor that can be carried by the regular infantry, with enough ammunition for a typical loadout.
 
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#9
TxWelder35 said:
On the military side he is correct. None of the new weapon systems being developed are in 5.56 and specifically ask for something different than that
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True, but the announcement of the winner for the NGSW is not till the end of the year. The logistics and money needed to migrate all of big Army from 556 to 6.8 is daunting. If I was a betting man I would think the NGSW will end up like the SCAR program or any combat of the future BS. Clearly it's not as easy as moving some 762 sniper rifles over to 6.5.

I could be wrong though, congress likes to bitch about rifles and battlefield lethality. Maybe they will give them the money to make the change. If it did happen there would be a lot of surplus 556 around.
 
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#10
TxWelder35 said:
On the military side he is correct. None of the new weapon systems being developed are in 5.56 and specifically ask for something different than that
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The Corp stayed with 5.56 in the M27. I don’t believe it will be a quick change like OP states as far as a few years. The .mil machine has never been that fast to adopt new tech. Having Lake City revamp itself to keep up with the needed new inventory, while still providing sufficient inventory for current calibers will be tricky. They could just build a new plant or addition to existing plant to cover transition. Either way, the current suppliers can’t afford to lapse in providing enough ammunition on hand to support a major war if it should break out. More importantly, .mil can’t afford to not have enough stockpiles to fight if needed. Just my .02 cents.

I’m usually wrong though
 
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#11
IMHO, Much like the B-52... 5.56 will be around for a long time.

The 5.56 "beat" other recent calibers ( 6.8SPC comes to mind , great round IMHO ) mostly because of .224 bullet design advancements... and battle field tactics constantly changing... and the budget limits.

The 5.56 rd has become "B-52"entrenched by its own merits... it is expensive to "reinvent" the wheel and then equip everyone. ... and convince NATO and other allies to follow suit.

I would love to see a improved round over the 5.56.. I just can't imagine what it would be at this point in time.

Even the 6.8x51 Hybrid , with its 80,000 psi operating pressure is a little unhinged to me.... then add a suppressor and is back pressure... I would love to see the operational mechanic's of the various NGSW rifles. And how it will handle all that PSI and back pressure, in a variety of climates.

Even if they use a "plastic" case... all the traditional heat soak from a brass case to the chamber, is now going down the only other outlet, the barrels bore.... at 80K psi... seems like a barrel burner. Unless there is some radical advancements in barrel bore tech, readily being used.

Much like the 9MM , I think the 5.56 will be around for a long time.
 
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#12
the monk said:
True, but the announcement of the winner for the NGSW is not till the end of the year. The logistics and money needed to migrate all of big Army from 556 to 6.8 is daunting. If I was a betting man I would think the NGSW will end up like the SCAR program or any combat of the future BS. Clearly it's not as easy as moving some 762 sniper rifles over to 6.5.

I could be wrong though, congress likes to bitch about rifles and battlefield lethality. Maybe they will give them the money to make the change. If it did happen there would be a lot of surplus 556 around.
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From my understanding they have not announced the rifle platform but they have settled on the 6.8x51 as the caliber they will roll out. It was also explained to me by a rep from sig that the initial roll out or implementation of that rifle with that caliber will be for “front line troops” only and not army wide. It sounds like the plan is to phase out the 5.56 in a number of years not with one stroke.
 
#14
Hmm, maybe for PRS but not hunting :unsure:

JOHN E. PHILLIPS AND J. WAYNE FEARS Nov 12, 2021

Forty or 50 years ago, the .30-30 was one of the most-popular deer rifles.

Now, with newer calibers providing better ammunition, the world of deer rifles has changed.

The most popular deer calibers today include the:

• 6.5 Creedmoor – This cartridge has received more press than other deer rifle cartridges, since hunters are enjoying taking deer at ranges of 400-500 yards. But honestly, the 6.5 Creedmoor isn’t that much of an improvement over the 7mm-08.

• 7mm-08 – The 7mm-08 is a .308 necked down to 7mm. From a ballistics table, you’ll see that the 7mm-08 is very close in ballistics to the 6.5 Creedmoor.

• .308 Winchester – The most-popular deer caliber today still may very well be the .308 Winchester. This old military cartridge is a .30-caliber cartridge – not quite as popular as the .30-06 – but very reliable out to about 300 yards.

• .30-06 – This older, long-range caliber that’s easy to find will put down the biggest buck you’ve ever seen at 400 yards. It has a long history as one of the top calibers for hunting both whitetails and mule deer.

• .243 – Due to its low recoil, this cartridge is a great choice for young shooters, small-frame shooters, older shooters and first-time shooters. The .243 is a flat-shooting bullet for out to 200+ yards.

• 30-30 – Many still hunt with the .30-30 caliber with the two most-popular rifles being the Winchester lever-action .30-30 and the Marlin lever-action .30-30. These two rifles have held their popularity because bullet manufacturers, like Hornady, have come up with a soft-tip pointed-nose .30-30 bullet with a larger amount of powder than before that can be loaded into a tubular magazine. With newer bullets, this same rifle is extremely accurate and has the knockdown power to take any deer out to about 300 yards.

The caliber of rifle you shoot is as personal as the size, color, shape and style of shoe you wear. Sometimes I think calibers may be overrated. Regardless of the caliber of deer rifle you choose, the one that you have the most confidence in and can shoot most accurately will be what you need to use. In my opinion, accuracy and shot placement are the most important features to look for to determine the best deer rifle and caliber for you.

Update:
i-75QTNgc-M.jpg
 
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#16
Badfinger said:
Hmm, maybe for PRS but not hunting :unsure:

JOHN E. PHILLIPS AND J. WAYNE FEARS Nov 12, 2021

Forty or 50 years ago, the .30-30 was one of the most-popular deer rifles.

Now, with newer calibers providing better ammunition, the world of deer rifles has changed.

The most popular deer calibers today include the:

• 6.5 Creedmoor – This cartridge has received more press than other deer rifle cartridges, since hunters are enjoying taking deer at ranges of 400-500 yards. But honestly, the 6.5 Creedmoor isn’t that much of an improvement over the 7mm-08.

• 7mm-08 – The 7mm-08 is a .308 necked down to 7mm. From a ballistics table, you’ll see that the 7mm-08 is very close in ballistics to the 6.5 Creedmoor.

• .308 Winchester – The most-popular deer caliber today still may very well be the .308 Winchester. This old military cartridge is a .30-caliber cartridge – not quite as popular as the .30-06 – but very reliable out to about 300 yards.

• .30-06 – This older, long-range caliber that’s easy to find will put down the biggest buck you’ve ever seen at 400 yards. It has a long history as one of the top calibers for hunting both whitetails and mule deer.

• .243 – Due to its low recoil, this cartridge is a great choice for young shooters, small-frame shooters, older shooters and first-time shooters. The .243 is a flat-shooting bullet for out to 200+ yards.

• 30-30 – Many still hunt with the .30-30 caliber with the two most-popular rifles being the Winchester lever-action .30-30 and the Marlin lever-action .30-30. These two rifles have held their popularity because bullet manufacturers, like Hornady, have come up with a soft-tip pointed-nose .30-30 bullet with a larger amount of powder than before that can be loaded into a tubular magazine. With newer bullets, this same rifle is extremely accurate and has the knockdown power to take any deer out to about 300 yards.

The caliber of rifle you shoot is as personal as the size, color, shape and style of shoe you wear. Sometimes I think calibers may be overrated. Regardless of the caliber of deer rifle you choose, the one that you have the most confidence in and can shoot most accurately will be what you need to use. In my opinion, accuracy and shot placement are the most important features to look for to determine the best deer rifle and caliber for you.
Click to expand...
By countering my post, you have made my point. Thank you...
 
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#19
And, the 243 Winchester is a great first cartridge for young shooters, in the same way that the .410 bore shotgun is a great first gun for new shotgunners. There is a reason the 243 has earned the epithet of 243 deerwounder...
 
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#20
5.56 is not going away anytime soon. Lethality was greatly increased with the introduction of the M855A1(yes it has some shortcomings).

The Army does not even plan to pure fleet the 6.8 NGSW to all troops. Rear echelon Soldiers don't generally have a requirement to defeat Level IV armor. I would not be surprised if the Army either continues to make the M4A1 better or seeks a COTS/GOTS solution to replace the it.

It's not going to be any different than in WWII with the M1 Carbine and M1 Garand
 
#22
fdkay said:
Seeing as how our military has been wearing armor that defeats a 5.56 level threat for over twenty years, I'm going to have to say "Duh, no shit"
However, you're not going to get a cartridge/bullet combo that defeats the current body armor that can be carried by the regular infantry, with enough ammunition for a typical loadout.
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Lol. There’s some pretty cool payloads out there in the 6.5 and 6.8 realms, not a lot of trouble defeating level 4 stuff.
 
#23
The 5.56 for our military at some point in time it might become obsolete per say but with other countries it will be around in use for a long time.

Also as has been mentioned...tell the 80 million gun owners that have a 5.56 AR platform rifle or bolt gun etc...

Either way...it's going to be around for quite a while!

Remember when the 9mm was adopted by our military (Beretta M9 pistol) everyone said the 45acp was going to be dead also. Not hardly!

Later, Frank
Bartlein Barrels
 
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#25
For 5.56 or 7.62N to die…NATO would have to abandon them which isn’t happening.

Yes the new platforms are new calibers…but I highly doubt we will see a change. Once the bean counters at the DoD start crunching numbers…it won’t happen. Just like how we continued to keep the M4A1 after the expensive and extensive SCAR program.

Now USSOCOM usually adopts these “exotic” offerings but not your standing army.

NGSW is a solicitation not a contract…there is nothing approved there…yes Winchester will do the ammo IF the NSGW solicitation gets adopted…but again knowing DoD’s history…it won’t be widely adopted.

Congress would have to really increase the budget to make those firearms the go-to rifle for infantry…

There is probably a reason why both Sig and Beretta have announced that they will offer their NSGW program guns to civilians ahead of the NSGW program concluding…
 
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#26
hlee said:
The 45ACP may not be dead, but it sure does complain about joint pain and changing weather a lot...
Click to expand...
Yet pretty much EVERY gun manufacturer offers pistols in it and still introduce new models.

From some conversations I had with HQMC folks I got the impression we were on the cusp of a caliber change (one that just needed barrel/bolt swap and used 5.56 format mags) when the unlimited funding for the Wars was scaled back.

This was from the same folks who wink-wink-nudge-nudge'ed me that the SAW wasn't actually being replaced by the M27 and that it was just a way for the Corps to get back into the FA business. And we see how that turned out to be correct.
 
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#28
sea2summit said:
Lol. There’s some pretty cool payloads out there in the 6.5 and 6.8 realms, not a lot of trouble defeating level 4 stuff.
Click to expand...
Not that are practical for military use that doesn't torch the barrels quickly.
Seeing as level 4 will typically defeat 30'06 AP, you've got to really ramp up the velocities, which is unkind to barrels.
Burning out your barrel in one firefight is not a recipe for success.
 
#31
aslrookie said:
We’ve seen other calibers come to market and be short lived or just used for specific purposes. 300blk is probably the only AR15 caliber that’s actually stuck around and widely used. 6.8, 6.5, 224V, 22 nosler and etc just never really took off.

Now we’re seeing calibers in military contracts other than 5.56 and 7.62. With the advances in body armor, I feel like 5.56 is starting to trend downward and people are wanting more energy on target for both hunting and defense.

There’s a USMC article that says they anticipate 5.56 to be obsolete in the next few years due to the technology advancements in body armor. Maybe it’s time to invest in bulk quantities of harder hitting ammo?
Click to expand...
For purely military needs they probably will use some higher energy stuff simply because of what they do. Our military doesn't use muskets or 30-06 for any wide array of useage anymore. To say that it will stay the same is not smart. That said I don't think it will go completely away (ever). At least not until they develop lazer beam guns with 200 shot capacity.

That said for any civilian use I don't see it changing anytime soon. The sheer numbers of people using it for one is completely off the table to change it up now. And furthermore 99.9% of civilians are not running around with the latest forms of body armor.

If you had the most up to date military units going head to head against other up to date military units in open battle that might be different. If you on the other hand are dealing with looters the odds that they are going to have a sophisticated coordinated attack to rob a Wal Greens using the latest body armor is typically not going to happen.

It's the same thing as night vision. I've never been in the military (ever) but I know that other guys have night vision too, so if you go running around illuminating everything they can see you too. But if you are talking about pure civilian use, a pig won't know if you are using Gen 2 or Gen 3 whatever. And again, the vast majority of people are completely unfamiliar with the technology at all.

If I was out in some sandbox country and my job was to eliminate jihadists that are so doped up that they wouldn't feel a thing no matter what, yes I would want more energy on target. Aside from that scenario it's simply not needed. Having better tactics and training in my opinion will win almost every time vs just having a bigger gun.
 
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#32
I’m just excited for something new that will be main stream, The round will have a lot of uses for a civilian other than for defense. I love 5.56 but other than coyotes and for defense its a gun that doesn’t have a ton of uses. I live in a place where you can easily shoot at stuff past 500 yards all the time.
 
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#36
alamo5000 said:
If you had the most up to date military units going head to head against other up to date military units in open battle that might be different
Click to expand...
And there lies the problem. The US military hasn’t had the true threat of a near peer mil in a long time. When that status quo changes, we will see a serious small arms development team assembled back at Ft. Benning, GA to close the gap again. Back around 05-10 ish, the small arms development team down there had some neat projects on the table. Most of them got mothballed it seems.
 
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#38
hlee said:
Does anyone actually think the 6.8x51 is competing with the 5.56 NATO? Please tell me, how many AR-15 sized rifles will chamber this beast? Does anyone really think that the army is going to scrap their M4s and M16s to go to an ar10 size platform?
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You know thats how the 5.56 came to be right? 7.62 NATO was rolled out in The M14 and the FAL and when the US saw a need for a different doctrine in small arms they made the switch and so did NATO. Changes happen, its happened 3 times in the last century and who’s to say it can’t happen now. For the first time in 30 years the US and NATO face a elevated chance of a near pear threat, tag on what was learned in Afghanistan and I think there is a potential change. 5.56 will still be around for a while and have its uses but the info I have been given is that they want to arm front line infantry units with a heavy hitting cartridge capable of lethality beyond the 556 and capable of piercing modern body armor and have a very similar battery of arms to an M4.

One thing also to consider is that in the event of a near pear conflict air superiority may not be what it was in Iraq and Afghanistan putting more pressure on boots on the ground. Its hard to shoot down and hack a human to this point.

I don’t think that 5.56 is obsolete, they military will still use it has a great track record, they will just have 6.8 to. I think 6.8x51 is happening and for us in the civilian world it will be great to have a round like this available in bulk.
 
#39
My guess (and only a guess): the Army will buy and issue the 6.8 and issue to the infantry, cav, and sappers, as planned.

The force will say lieutenants, radio operators, drivers, and crew-served weapons guys don't need to carry rifles bigger, bulkier, and heavier than M1s. They might retain M4A1s.

We never fight a peer competitor in hard body armor and aramid helmets. Infantry, cav, and sappers ask for the M4A1 back.
 
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#41
There's more to ammunition than lethality. Ideally, a cartridge will be lethal in all scenarios but that clearly isn't possible.

The 5.56 has proven reliable both on the trigger end and on the production line. Tooling and existing hardware is still a huge factor to obsolescence. Hypothetically, even if there was a magic cartridge that shoots better, cost the same to produce (after initial tooling costs) and comes recommended by every badge wearing uniform, it may still be a whole generation of servicemen before they retire a system.

The only scenario I can foresee any developed country ditching tried and true overnight (ie. within the "a few years") if there was a significant shootout that went unfavourably one sided purely attributable to bullets bouncing off body armour. To bridge the gap of obsolescence, we will just have to shoot more, shoot faster.
 
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#43
forthehunt said:
if there was a significant shootout that went unfavourably one sided purely
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So let’s dig deeper into this comment and ask again why .mil hasn’t changed calibers yet.

Flashback to Operation Gothic Serpent. Granted it wasn’t an armor issues, but the 556 seemed less than effective, and some of that is probably due to the ballistics of the 556, and a skinny ass skinny being shot. Not enough meat on the bone to initiate terminal ballistics? Seems there have been a few TICs that would push the caliber change issue, BUT here we are 50 plus years into the 556 worm hole.
 
#46
roostercogburn98 said:
So let’s dig deeper into this comment and ask again why .mil hasn’t changed calibers yet.

Flashback to Operation Gothic Serpent. Granted it wasn’t an armor issues, but the 556 seemed less than effective, and some of that is probably due to the ballistics of the 556, and a skinny ass skinny being shot. Not enough meat on the bone to initiate terminal ballistics? Seems there have been a few TICs that would push the caliber change issue, BUT here we are 50 plus years into the 556 worm hole.
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There is a large distinction between single cause of failure and a contributor to failure. Essentially, big and fast changes require media coverage you cannot ignore. One can ignore or spin a multifactorial failure with ease.

Changing calibres isn't just an operational exercise, it is also an industrial one so you have to view it from both lenses and it will require unanimous opinion of both.
 
#49
@roostercogburn98 I hear what you're saying and I do not disagree with the operational assessment.

I'm not a military man but I am a business owner, a manufacturer and at one point attempting to invent. I am not well versed in strategy and only started being serious in firearms in recent years so consider my opinion from a financial and business perspective.
 
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#50
forthehunt said:
@roostercogburn98 I hear what you're saying and I do not disagree with the operational assessment.

I'm not a military man but I am a business owner, a manufacturer and at one point attempting to invent. I am not well versed in strategy and only started being serious in firearms in recent years so consider my opinion from a financial and business perspective.
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Ultimately, it all boils down to a financial perspective, so you are not far from what is going on with that mindset. There is so much invested in what is currently in the hands of GIs, it will be a financial and logistical nightmare to change without a very solid reason as you have mentioned.

I just don’t think the winner has been chosen, and it will be a fight all the way to the finish line. Not to mention what/who is involved and what kind of financial change impacts them. Money makes the world go round.
 
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