Believe the bullet
visually speaking you cannot see the "downdraft" unless there is something in the air like snow.
You have to build your position in a way to correct for the conditions on the first shot. As noted many times, the best snipers in the world don't consider the person who gets a first-round hit every time to be good, but rather the guy who can correct off the first shot and get that second round impact within 3 to 5 seconds.
It's more mindset than actually being able to dope those conditions ahead of time. You cannot see that stuff downrange, wind is invisible we can only see how it affects the objects around us, and not every situation has those indicators.
if you look at our range, there are no indicators out there, you just have to dope the shot based on the conditions at the shooter and then correct for the unseen conditions which may exist.
There is absolutely no way to calculate everything, instead, it's how we correct based off the first shot and how we react to those weird issues. Years ago I was with Clint Smith helping him set up his HART Class. it was cold and snowing out with some crazy winds. We were shooting his shorty 308 with 168s at 1100 yards and the wind was going UP the side of the hill. We can see it thanks to the snow. But no two rounds hit the same way in the same place, because the gusts varied so much. Still, they all hit high above the target, At that point, you can say, what can I do to hit the target better and my answer would be, get closer.