Ko2M Rankings

[Sandow the Heretic]

I have put together a ranking system using all the match data I have available. This ranking will determine acceptance to Ko2M for future events. Please actually read the explanation before firing questions at me.

I'll be maintaining it here:

Ko2M ELR Rankings - ELR World

-Alex

 

[Geno C.]

As I read it, Spearpoint won’t qualify next year since he doesn’t currently have a camera system? Also, since the targets aren’t moved the score is reduced by 1/3?

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

As I read it, Spearpoint won’t qualify next year since he doesn’t currently have a camera system? Also, since the targets aren’t moved the score is reduced by 1/3?

Steve is in the midst of getting cameras. He was actually going to use mine for the finals but I had some technical issues at Ringneck that I needed to deal with. The correction on points has a pretty minor effect in the end since the range you have hit to consecutively matters far more. You can look at the distribution and see that SPR scores range across the brackets from top to bottom even after the 1/3 reduction. It really is just a correction to even things out. I don't know of another match that has static targets that can be practiced on as well as competed on. It is its own thing and that is fine but the scores need to be leveled somehow to be fair.

-Alex

 

[Geno C.]

Do this years scores already have the 1/3 reduction?

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

yes

 

[TripleBull]

Don't worry, Geno, you'll be even better next year.

 

[Geno C.]

Don't worry, Geno, you'll be even better next year.

I’m not worried. Hopefully, next year will return to normal and I will only be able to shoot a match or 2
And that will be that. I could care less we’re I place. It’s nice for other guys to be able to compare themselves on a level measuring stick though. 11th on my first full year ahead of guys that I know shoot better than me doesn’t change the way I see things.

 

[Esoteric Junkie]

A lot of effort put into a ranking system that means absolutely nothing.
EJ

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

A lot of effort put into a ranking system that means absolutely nothing.
EJ

No ranking systems mean anything to people that don't care. If you don't care about olympic curling (and who does outside of Canada) then a gold medal winner means nothing to you either.

If you simply dislike my system then by all means, lets hear your approach for a better one.

-Alex

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Updates for the September matches are up.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Updated to include thunder valley.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Updated to include Ko2M Canada, Arena Fall 2020 and Ko1M Caylus.

 

[b2lee]

Atleast I'm on the list now....way down the list...but on the list none the less.

 

[oneshot.onehit]

Cool stuff, congrats to you and Geno C. A lot of folks will look at the list and look forward to the day that they can accomplish the level of expertise and dedication that you have accomplished. Cheers

Oneshot.onehit

 

[Geno C.]

Thanks Jeff, but you and I both know this is only looking at things from one specific angle.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Updated to include Spear Point for march and April and Unholy Alliance in April.

Added about 50 new shooters to the list in the past month!

-Alex

 

[ELR researcher]

Updated to include Spear Point for march and April and Unholy Alliance in April.

Added about 50 new shooters to the list in the past month!

-Alex

Alex - is there a link to the current shooters list? If so, please share. Thanks

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Its in my first post. I maintain it offsite to force people to at least see the explanation of how it all works.

-Alex

 

[Geno C.]

Its in my first post. I maintain it offsite to force people to at least see the explanation of how it all works.

-Alex

Crazy to see how low Ryan’s score was even though he has the farthest impact in a match. Just interesting to see.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Crazy to see how low Ryan’s score was even though he has the farthest impact in a match. Just interesting to see.

Ended up having to disregard the scores from target 1 and 5 because of lack of camera coverage so the scores ended up lower than usual.

-Alex

 

[Geno C.]

If youre not going to count those points, how are you going to determine that he hit all the targets consecutively? If you don’t trust the scoring, he shouldn’t make the list, right? I suppose, according the Ko2m rules, that whole match is out then since there wasn’t cameras on all of the targets?

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

If youre not going to count those points, how are you going to determine that he hit all the targets consecutively? If you don’t trust the scoring, he shouldn’t make the list, right? I suppose, according the Ko2m rules, that whole match is out then since there wasn’t cameras on all of the targets?

We said we would require cameras or a forward observer in order to accept scores starting this year and this is that policy being enforced. We don't trust hit indicators as a scoring tool and have never been subtle about that position. There is no reason to toss out the entire match because a few targets were not compliant though.

Also, Cheney had long since climbed into the top 100.

-Alex

 

[Geno C.]

So it’s ok to not have cameras on some targets and not others?

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

So it’s ok to not have cameras on some targets and not others?

I'm not sure what is so hard to understand about this. If a target doesn't have a camera on it and doesn't have a forward observer scoring it, we won't accept the scores from that target.

-Alex

 

[b2lee]

I've seen several shots skip off the ground and hit a target. When you are 2,000+ yards away and the ground in front isn't dusty, how can you tell that hit indicator is a true hit or a skip?

But Geno, I understand your line of questioning.

 

[Geno C.]

I'm not sure what is so hard to understand about this. If a target doesn't have a camera on it and doesn't have a forward observer scoring it, we won't accept the scores from that target.

-Alex

It’s not that complicated. You’re scoring requires not missing a target. If you’re not counting a score on a target, why are you counting it as a target that’s hit?

 

[Geno C.]

I've seen several shots skip off the ground and hit a target. When you are 2,000+ yards away and the ground in front isn't dusty, how can you tell that hit indicator is a true hit or a skip?

But Geno, I understand your line of questioning.

There was a skip that hit the 2 mile target last month. They counted it as a possible hit and let the shooter shoot at the 4153 target. They later found that it was a skipped bullet and didn’t count.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

There was a skip that hit the 2 mile target last month. They counted it as a possible hit and let the shooter shoot at the 4153 target. They later found that it was a skipped bullet and didn’t count.

Cameras don't result in perfect scoring in of themselves. Whoever is watching them can still mess up and it is pretty hard to concentrate on it after a few hours. The difference is that you can go back and review the footage to verify a call or to resolve a protest with cameras. It is a hell of a lot more reliable than say, having a shooter self report hits/misses from flashers...

-Alex

 

[Geno C.]

Agreed. But they couldn’t verify at that match.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

It’s not that complicated. You’re scoring requires not missing a target. If you’re not counting a score on a target, why are you counting it as a target that’s hit?

We are disregarding the target entirely. Essentially treating it like it was never shot at all. Several matches I've helped with have had a target fail for one reason or another and if it isn't practical to fix it, a fairly common approach is to simply drop it from the match and keep going. I'm doing much the same thing.

-Alex

 

[Geno C.]

That’s fine. But the fact that only one impact was called when it happened at 2 miles and the fact that there is one impact unaccounted for should bring into question the validity of those 2 targets. I spotted every shot that was taken on those 2 targets. People from
The outside looking in don’t see the credibility of ko2m when they see stuff like that included in the scoring.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

That’s fine. But the fact that only one impact was called when it happened at 2 miles and the fact that there is one impact unaccounted for should bring into question the validity of those 2 targets. I spotted every shot that was taken on those 2 targets. People from
The outside looking in don’t see the credibility of ko2m when they see stuff like that included in the scoring.

I agree, the two mile target calls were handled badly and there were pictures of people pointing to impacts that looked rather improbable for the calibers they were shooting. I held off updating the results mostly because of the two mile target's issues. I've included them for now on good faith and because most of the people I've spoken with agree on the calls being mostly correct. I've asked Steve for the footage but I'm not sure he knows how to export the footage from the DVRs. I'll probably swing by the ranch at some point when I'm out there next week and try to get it sorted and help configure their system for a bit more resilience.

Ultimately I don't like having to invalidate scores because it is effectively punishing shooters for something that isn't their fault so I will do whatever possible to include what I can.

-Alex

 

[Geno C.]

Steve has the system squared away now. It ran flawlessly last weekend. There was only one contested shot and it was played back and confirmed that the spotters in the both were correct. The audio, and camera on the shooters synced to the target cams was exactly what was needed. As long as they don’t have cameras or antennas fail, I see that match running very smooth for the rest of the season

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Steve has the system squared away now. It ran flawlessly last weekend. There was only one contested shot and it was played back and confirmed that the spotters in the both were correct. The audio, and camera on the shooters synced to the target cams was exactly what was needed. As long as they don’t have cameras or antennas fail, I see that match running very smooth for the rest of the season

Yeah, I heard it went well. Cameras take some getting used to just like any new system. They had audio last time but I understand that they had turned it off cause they didn't want to listen to the wind (which is annoying) and eliminated some pretty good feedback. On really shot up targets, the clang and looking for the splatter line across the ground is usually far more reliable than trying to see a new impact but that puff alone can be subtle sometimes. Target hits also sound obviously different than leg hits and ricochets.

I also understand that at the first match they had been watching the feed pretty much all day and I can tell you that after about three hours I either need to start chugging caffeine or take a solid break because watching a display for something to move a few times an hour is boring as fuck.

He asked about configuring it to have back ups so if something shits the bed or gets shot they can just swap it out and keep going. At matches with easy target access, I try to have two spare cameras than I can move down if something gets hit. At King we run two different systems side by side because we simply can't get to the targets in a reasonable timeframe to fix something.

-Alex

 

[Geno C.]

If you get to see the film from the 2 mile target, I’ll be interested to see what you find. There were 2 shooters in our squad alone that we lost bullets on that could have possibly been that unaccounted for impart. A 375 and 2, 460s. We also lists a less impact/miss from a 338.

 

[Ravenworks]

Can anyone PROVE Ryan even hit the target @ 2 miles and not another shooter?

 

[Geno C.]

Can anyone PROVE Ryan even hit the target @ 2 miles and not another shooter?

If they can’t prove who was the other solid impact, I’m going to go out on a limb and say, no. The only impact that they called when it happened out loud was Randy O

 

[Ravenworks]

If they can’t prove who was the other solid impact, I’m going to go out on a limb and say, no. The only impact that they called when it happened out loud was Randy O

That is what I was trying to understand.

 

[Geno C.]

That is what I was trying to understand.

They actually had a bunch of people shoot the 4153 target, just in case they impacted because they weren’t sure about the 2 mile target.

 

[ELR researcher]

Its in my first post. I maintain it offsite to force people to at least see the explanation of how it all works.

-Alex

Alex - thanks for the referral to your site. I'm wondering about the "300 yard brackets" to then set overall placement. I find no "logic" in your write up to help folks understand why overall position is set using such apparently arbitrary "brackets". Why not straight score? Distance is interesting but shooters don't win on distance alone. Please share the logic. Thanks.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Alex - thanks for the referral to your site. I'm wondering about the "300 yard brackets" to then set overall placement. I find no "logic" in your write up to help folks understand why overall position is set using such apparently arbitrary "brackets". Why not straight score? Distance is interesting but shooters don't win on distance alone. Please share the logic. Thanks.

I'm surprised given the nature of your competitions that you don't see the value in the brackets but I'm happy to explain it. Score alone resulted in some distributions that were obviously wrong. There were matches like Arena that had piles of close range targets and resulted in high scores while never getting much past 2400 yards. Since the point of the ranking is to be predictive of who will do well in Ko2M I did regression and the lack of fit was pretty bad. When I moved on to the bracketed model the lack of fit improved considerably.

Keep in mind that I essentially used this model for two years of match acceptance before publicly releasing it. It actually led to the one and only invitation we have ever given to Jaclyn Bryan who then made the finals in Ko2M. I only made it public because I felt it was mostly correct and I thought that it would help drive attendance up at other ELR matches.

The reality is that demonstrating the ability to hit at long ranges sequentially is an easy gauge on where a shooter is in their progression. If a shooter is tagging 3000 yard targets then they practice with their spotter, have a gun and ammo that are squared away and can operate well under the pressure of competition.

I went through a lot of statistical approaches before I had one that was good enough to make public. It isn't done being refined by any means since there are shooters like Mitch that should be higher and shooters that I won't name that I feel should be lower.

I'm always happy to discuss different possible permutations for the stats and would like to refine it further. So far Wink is the only person willing to dive into it and actually crunch numbers with me though.

-Alex

 

[ELR researcher]

I'm surprised given the nature of your competitions that you don't see the value in the brackets but I'm happy to explain it. Score alone resulted in some distributions that were obviously wrong. There were matches like Arena that had piles of close range targets and resulted in high scores while never getting much past 2400 yards. Since the point of the ranking is to be predictive of who will do well in Ko2M I did regression and the lack of fit was pretty bad. When I moved on to the bracketed model the lack of fit improved considerably.

Keep in mind that I essentially used this model for two years of match acceptance before publicly releasing it. It actually led to the one and only invitation we have ever given to Jaclyn Bryan who then made the finals in Ko2M. I only made it public because I felt it was mostly correct and I thought that it would help drive attendance up at other ELR matches.

The reality is that demonstrating the ability to hit at long ranges sequentially is an easy gauge on where a shooter is in their progression. If a shooter is tagging 3000 yard targets then they practice with their spotter, have a gun and ammo that are squared away and can operate well under the pressure of competition.

I went through a lot of statistical approaches before I had one that was good enough to make public. It isn't done being refined by any means since there are shooters like Mitch that should be higher and shooters that I won't name that I feel should be lower.

I'm always happy to discuss different possible permutations for the stats and would like to refine it further. So far Wink is the only person willing to dive into it and actually crunch numbers with me though.

-Alex

Alex:

Thanks for your reply.

Still not following the end ranking but I have zero interest in doing any calc - long, long ago classwork and that was all formulas, zero "word problems". Have you considered "normalizing" the event results in some manner or fashion that would utilize a "venue" and/or "event" factor (an event/venue difficulty factor), such that the resulting "normalized" point count would be the overall position on your chart? IMHO, I think most forks would understand that , i.e., 12000 is higher than 11999 , etc. Then possibly a separate column (unsorted, just right next to the score column) for say, max distance where the shooter got at least one hit. Anyway, no interest in pursuing this discussion (especially here). Thanks again.

In re URSA using "brackets", I'm assuming you mean our achievement levels - which are pretty gross steps. There is no "ranking" system within a level and none overall. Shop-level concept - machinist, journeyman machinist, master machinist. In any case, the raw data are there for anyone who is interested in parsing further.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Alex:

Thanks for your reply.

Still not following the end ranking but I have zero interest in doing any calc - long, long ago classwork and that was all formulas, zero "word problems". Have you considered "normalizing" the event results in some manner or fashion that would utilize a "venue" and/or "event" factor (an event/venue difficulty factor), such that the resulting "normalized" point count would be the overall position on your chart? IMHO, I think most forks would understand that , i.e., 12000 is higher than 11999 , etc. Then possibly a separate column (unsorted, just right next to the score column) for say, max distance where the shooter got at least one hit. Anyway, no interest in pursuing this discussion (especially here). Thanks again.

In re URSA using "brackets", I'm assuming you mean our achievement levels - which are pretty gross steps. There is no "ranking" system within a level and none overall. Shop-level concept - machinist, journeyman machinist, master machinist. In any case, the raw data are there for anyone who is interested in parsing further.

I'll keep it short but I'm sure others wonder as well. I have tried normalizing the scores but the result is garbage. Every match location is different and has its own challenges. Add to that the different skill levels of shooters in different regions of the country and the matches are incomparable.

-Alex

 

[Geno C.]

I'll keep it short but I'm sure others wonder as well. I have tried normalizing the scores but the result is garbage. Every match location is different and has its own challenges. Add to that the different skill levels of shooters in different regions of the country and the matches are incomparable.

-Alex

The matches not being the same, like distances and target sizes really makes comparing scores virtually impossible. I know shooters way behind me that are better shooters. Also, old scores from 2+ years ago don’t show a shooters current skill level, both good and bad.

 

[oneshot.onehit]

Cameras have their bad days to, last year a round was sent and the camera went dead at the same time on a 3200 yard target with no way of knowing for sure if it was a impact or a miss. So it scored a zero, so sometimes its just bad timing and it is what it is but in all honesty thats a bunch of points if it was a impact the shooter could of had.

oneshot.onehit

 

[phlegethon]

I am seeing a lot of complaints and not a lot of solutions. There is going to be a lot of luck involved in ELR on many levels. Seems like the current system is a pretty good effort to be fair.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

The matches not being the same, like distances and target sizes really makes comparing scores virtually impossible. I know shooters way behind me that are better shooters. Also, old scores from 2+ years ago don’t show a shooters current skill level, both good and bad.

Not a perfect system, just the best predictive model I could come up with. Scores that are 2 years old and are still there are from shooters that have never done better then they did back then. If they aren't getting ranked higher they are either not shooting matches or not getting better.

Cameras have their bad days to, last year a round was sent and the camera went dead at the same time on a 3200 yard target with no way of knowing for sure if it was a impact or a miss. So it scored a zero, so sometimes its just bad timing and it is what it is but in all honesty thats a bunch of points if it was a impact the shooter could of had.

oneshot.onehit

So that really shouldn't matter. The cameras may hitch is there is an interference issue or something like that (had a bird land on and antenna once and screw up the link for a bit. I only figure it out when I saw the crap on the antenna...) but they buffer it out with recordings stored on the camera so once they link up the recording is rectified. Even if the cameras being used can't do that, you can compare the video before and after to check for new impacts. Bullet hits a camera and all bets are off but It probably can't hit the camera and the target at least...

-Alex

 

[oneshot.onehit]

If I remember right a relay fried in the camera, makes things tuff at times but a good effort on the equipment is the best a person can do. Not sure if anyone checked before and after the hour delay as far as impacts on the target I think everyone was focused on getting the event back up running with the shooters waiting to get back on the line. But you made a good point Alex a request should of been made to check the before and after of the target to see if the impacts did increase.


oneshot.onehit

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Updates to the rankings are posted here:

Ko2M ELR Rankings - ELR World

I was hoping to include results from Georgia but still haven't seen them. If anyone has them (even a picture of the results), please send them my way.

To address questions from weeks ago, I did have time to view the footage from the 2 mile target at spear point. The short of it is, the called it correctly. That camera must have had a stuck iris or something cause it was way darker than the 4k target camera. They had a hard time seeing it in the failing light and evidently did what they thought was best without realizing what a clusterfuck delayed feedback could be. The extra impact appears to have been there significantly before it was shot at for record.

-Alex

 

[Geno C.]

So you assert that someone shot at that target directly that day before it was setup with the camera?