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What’s up with Silver?
- Thread starter 300zx_tt
- Start date
I’ve been buying silver for months now… shockingly cheap right now.
Likely not for long though
Likely not for long though
Short version as the fed increases rates it usually causes precious metal prices to drop. Second silver is a industrial metal and demand has been low due to electronics manufacturers making less units. Unless phone and other electronic production increases silver could continue to drop, and the fed is threatening multiple rate increases in the near future. Silver historically doesn’t do nearly as well as Gold when the stock market drops, It has never gone up as much as gold during bad economic times and has often seen large loses during in stock crashes.
Premium are too high for silver. Eagles are $35-36 with spot at $22. Eff that. Getting gold for 5% instead of silver at almost 100% premiums.
JM did put random year eagles on sale for around $32 for Memorial Day so I might have snagged a tube. SD still has them for about that.
JM did put random year eagles on sale for around $32 for Memorial Day so I might have snagged a tube. SD still has them for about that.
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It handles inflation very well, just not recession. Buying precious metals isn’t a short play, depending where you buy it and how much you pay the dealer to buy or sell you’ve lost a decent percentage on the first day. The investment value comes from holding it, there are more than a few kids and grandkids that have opened granddads drawer after he’s gone and were very happy he bought precious metals years ago. Normally precious metals will weather inflation much better than currency, as a matter of fact almost always. But as the fed raises rates money will be sucked back into bonds, which as we saw when the fed raised its rate shortly ago causing precious metals to decline. There is only a finite amount of investment funds and as it flows from one place to another where it leaves drops and where it goes increases. Silver’s value has allot to do with industrial uses, you will normally see the greatest gains in silver when it’s being used in large amounts in producing products, and the biggest drops when production demands slow down, where gold sees its biggest gains when people flee the stock and bond market.
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When you start seeing commercials for it you don’t want it.
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I don’t buy eagles are US bullion at all, my gold is Maple leafs, pandas, or Krugerrands.
My grandmother told me stories of the government recalling all “their” gold……
My grandmother told me stories of the government recalling all “their” gold……
The short version is the middle man and minting costs. The mint won’t sell to the public so they are distributed to dealers, charging them the gold price plus a premium for minting the coin, the dealer then adds a premium and resells it, and the dealers premium can fluctuate depending on demand.
I’ve always wanted a silver bullet for the hell of it, I keep meaning to cast one and load it. Btw I love your car, my favorite car ever built.
It wouldn’t have been legal to keep any of those either in 1933. They confiscated all gold. They fixed the price around $20 an ounce, “bought” it back, then raised the price to $35/oz immediately devaluing the dollars they just paid for the gold at gun point.
Only about 1/4 of the gold coins in circulation were melted down. People just hid it.
Leafs and Krugerrands will get you a 1099 of you sell 25 ounces or more at a time. But we all pay our capital gains taxes anyway so a non-issue.
Silver isn't a "precious" metal, it's really not rare at all. Instead, it's much more of a primarly industrial-use metal. So, the valuation dynamics for silver are completely different as compared to gold, as you have noticed.
Industrial use of silver consumes more than twice the amount of silver bought up for "investment:" Here's an article that sort of explains:
www.marketwatch.com
If the economy goes down, industrial demand lags, and silver price will decline. World trouble usually makes gold $ go up; not necessarily true of silver. Actually, you could argue the silver/gold price trend relationship is almost an inverse relationship.
A lot of silver is used in solar, and Biden jut took the tariffs off solar panels, so maybe that will help silver's price over the next year or so. But that's iffy if the economy goes down as it is predicted to do.
Therefore, since silver is primarily an industrial commodity, buying it for "investment" is very speculative and the considerations for silver appraication are much different from those that might apply to buying an actual "precious" metal like gold for "investment." IMHO.
Industrial use of silver consumes more than twice the amount of silver bought up for "investment:" Here's an article that sort of explains:
Global industrial demand for silver hits record in 2021, and is set to extend gains this year
Silver’s use in industrial applications rose 9% to an all-time high of 508.2 million ounces in 2021, getting a lift from the start of an economic recovery...
www.marketwatch.com
If the economy goes down, industrial demand lags, and silver price will decline. World trouble usually makes gold $ go up; not necessarily true of silver. Actually, you could argue the silver/gold price trend relationship is almost an inverse relationship.
A lot of silver is used in solar, and Biden jut took the tariffs off solar panels, so maybe that will help silver's price over the next year or so. But that's iffy if the economy goes down as it is predicted to do.
Therefore, since silver is primarily an industrial commodity, buying it for "investment" is very speculative and the considerations for silver appraication are much different from those that might apply to buying an actual "precious" metal like gold for "investment." IMHO.
I get that silver is more of an industrial metal vs a precious metal, but so is copper. Copper is at a 50 year high. All the wire at my local HD is behind bars so the poors can’t run up and grab $7k worth of it and sprint out of the store. Is the price increase in copper related to the housing boom and nothing else? Or does inflation affect it in a similar way to gold?
On your copper question, I had an interesting conversation with some construction gurus last week talking about how lumber delivery contracts are priced for large commercial or residential projects, and what they said would also apply to copper product delivery contract for new constructions. In the S.W., investors are currently building tens upon 10s of thousands of apartment units, with large projects having hundreds or more units in a single projects. Blocks and blocks long. Just these apt projects have a lead time of maybe 3 to 4 years after they get funded with a loan. The cost of the ongoing financing loan is brutal, and everybody must stay on schedule or the project won't generate the promised profits. The big boys that do these have to have contracts for delivery of the components, incluing the lumber and the copper, some or most of those set up years in advance. So the big boys are the ones with the large lumber delivery contracts, and everyone else only get to bid on what's left, so there is a constricted supply. And the problem on price occurs because the cost of financing far outweighs the cost of whatever amounts the big boys have to pay for individual building components, so they really don't care what they pay for the components like copper materials or sticks, as long as the components show up on time, and the cost of their overall project financing and construction schedule stays on track. So the reason that, when you wander into Hone Depot and you have to pay $20 for a 2x4, the market price is getting set be big contruction operators with the long term huge coinracts for the wood copper and other construction components, who really could not care less what they pay since the component costs are just a smallish part of the overall cost, and they are just passing the cost onto the consumer future renters. So I suppose that's both construction demand and inflation.
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You just need to establish a "Benchmark".
Go down to your local pawn shop and buy 10 Mercury Dimes (junk silver). Get back to us and let us know just how much a 10 cent silver coin is worth today.
Go down to your local pawn shop and buy 10 Mercury Dimes (junk silver). Get back to us and let us know just how much a 10 cent silver coin is worth today.
Sorry, Hobo, I usually agree with you, but I'm on board with navynambu- especially on silver. I bought a bunch beginning in 2005-6. By 2010, I'm pretty sure I was paying 20-22 oz for generic rounds and 9-10x face for junk. At street price it feels like it has barely, barely kept up with inflation. The 40lbs or so of nickle nickles are still worth face value- which is less....Ok, things could be worse, like the value of the cash I keep on hand, or slightly better with the small amount of gold i have. But none of the four are big enough changes to really matter. If a worse case scenario unfolds, I'm not really convinced that these assets will matter much then either.
I understand... I also am holding some very expensive silver from 2010.... I say that I was "Late to the party" and should have hung on to more of those silver coins from when I was a kid. My silver is just an alternative source of something to barter with... Not hedging with it.
I appreciate all of the comments from the members... Helps me stay balanced.
Junk silver is like 20-22x face value right now. Silver and gold is fun to hold and look at. My daughter likes to look at them and cash doesn’t interest her at all. I don’t really look at either as an investment but it beats holding cash long term and it’s fun. If you’re buying silver at 75% premium it’s going to have to go up a lot to even get your cash back out. Right now you can sell eagles for around $7 over and buy them for $10-15 over so you’re only in the hole $3-8 but if you paid $12 and it goes back to $2 when you want to sell you lost a lot of value just on premiums and you’d need the price to go up substantially to beat holding cash instead of silver.
Gold at 5% premium is a much better buy today than silver at 50-75%. Silver doesn’t pencil out unless you’re hoping for the moonshot. It’s like buying 1/10 oz coins. You really need to buy 1/4s or whole ounces of you can. Whole ounces are really what’s going to get you to reasonable premiums.
Gold at 5% premium is a much better buy today than silver at 50-75%. Silver doesn’t pencil out unless you’re hoping for the moonshot. It’s like buying 1/10 oz coins. You really need to buy 1/4s or whole ounces of you can. Whole ounces are really what’s going to get you to reasonable premiums.
Silver & Gold both down in recent day's, any predictions or speculation on how low they may go before leveling off? With digital currency emerging will precious metals become the currency for local trade-barter?
Welcome to the party.
For the past 3,000 years silver has been the currency for commerce. "Junk Silver" will be used here in America when the USD collapses.
As for gold... Take your lead from the Chinese.
Why Is China Buying So Much Gold?
The People’s Bank of China (PBC) increased its gold holdings for the second consecutive month.
www.usgoldbureau.com
I think silver is going to briefly flirt with the high 19's this week. As soon as it does, i'm buying fast and a lot. I've already noticed that inventory across the board of low premium rounds and bars are drying up quickly. I may be too late if i'm waiting for 19's.
Branden
Those are gold....5.5% over spot isn't that great, that's still $100/oz over spot. Valcambi 1oz bars are half that over spot for the same amount of gold. I gotta go through my history to find the site again, but they have walking liberty's for $8.30 over spot....which is the best deal i've seen considering most places are $13 over spot.
Branden
This thread has talked about both silver and gold…
5.5% for buffalos is about as cheap as it gets anymore. Buffalos also retain some numismatic value compared to bars so they aren’t really comparable.
I guess most of you guys are too young to remember the 3 Texan brothers that tried to corner the silver market back in the ...70s or 80s ?
I don't recall their name right now,but whatever.
Silver has never really been worth a shit and I would recommend NOT buying it.
It was about 50$ at the highest, ever, and that was with the market being manipulated.
The price of silver has been stable at about the same for the last 50 years or so.....so if you want to invest in stability, go for it.
Don't expect any profit though...
Here's the story about the brothers.
en.wikipedia.org
I don't recall their name right now,but whatever.
Silver has never really been worth a shit and I would recommend NOT buying it.
It was about 50$ at the highest, ever, and that was with the market being manipulated.
The price of silver has been stable at about the same for the last 50 years or so.....so if you want to invest in stability, go for it.
Don't expect any profit though...
Here's the story about the brothers.
Silver Thursday - Wikipedia
I bought silver Saturday and today and as long as it continues to go down, I will be buying it. I only wish gold would start dropping again.
Hunt brothersI guess most of you guys are too young to remember the 3 Texan brothers that tried to corner the silver market back in the ...70s or 80s ?
I don't recall their name right now,but whatever.
Silver has never really been worth a shit and I would recommend NOT buying it.
It was about 50$ at the highest, ever, and that was with the market being manipulated.
The price of silver has been stable at about the same for the last 50 years or so.....so if you want to invest in stability, go for it.
Don't expect any profit though...
Here's the story about the brothers.
Silver Thursday - Wikipedia
Most folks that I know of that are buying physical gold and silver are doing so as a hedge against inflation. It's not so much about turning a profit because you don't really truly turn a profit on the sale of something when the dollar had gone down in value roughly the same amount between when you bought, and sold, the metals. I bought silver in 2015 at $17, and earlier this year it was $22, an increase of 28%. The dollar decreased in value 20% during that same time period. If you had a pile of cash of any given denomination, it's still worth that much in 8 years, but you can't buy as much with it. If you put it in physical metals, it will increase in value in comparison to the worthless money it's being converted into. Now sure, you can put that cash into the stock market, buy shares of a company, but it's quite possible that those stocks can go to zero in a flash. Now unless a meteor gently lands on the earth that made entirely of gold and silver, enough to meet all the demands of the globe, gold and silver will never go to zero. I'm hearing about barter markets popping up around the country that are accepting silver as a form of currency. Missouri has recently passed a bill that would allow residents to pay their taxes in gold and silver (if I remember it correctly).I guess most of you guys are too young to remember the 3 Texan brothers that tried to corner the silver market back in the ...70s or 80s ?
I don't recall their name right now,but whatever.
Silver has never really been worth a shit and I would recommend NOT buying it.
It was about 50$ at the highest, ever, and that was with the market being manipulated.
The price of silver has been stable at about the same for the last 50 years or so.....so if you want to invest in stability, go for it.
Don't expect any profit though...
Here's the story about the brothers.
Silver Thursday - Wikipedia
Physical metals are not something you invest your whole savings into, but if you have some long term cash that you're holding out of the bank for any number of reasons, if you're going to keep it for years and years, you'd be better served to put it into physical metals, so it's not losing buying power over the course of time.
this is just my viewpoint, and what I believe is correct with the time i've spent looking into it. Not saying that i'm an expert at all.
Branden
Long ago Utah passed legislation allowing taxes (and other things) to be paid in gold. Other states have followed.
Gold as a hedge is one thing.
Gold for a form of barter when the USD collapses is a different thing.
One theory is for anyone that thinks they can survive and come out on "the other side".... Gold is great.
Gold will not be so great while trying to get to the other side.
I’ll risk it……….its seemed to have worked for a thousand years….
Reasons to buy
WWIII
Death of the petro-dollar
Death of the dollar
Hyper inflation
Sustained High inflation
Pedo Peter poops his pants again
Hide money from the government
Hide money from the wife
WWIII
Death of the petro-dollar
Death of the dollar
Hyper inflation
Sustained High inflation
Pedo Peter poops his pants again
Hide money from the government
Hide money from the wife
Silver has gone up the last week, but I just checked and silver has dropped almost a full dollar today alone. It's down to a little over $20 per ounce. I guess I'll buy another tube of ASEs.
I'd still like to see it in the teens, but $20 isn't too bad. Now if we could get gold to drop a $100, I'd be jumping all over that.
I'd still like to see it in the teens, but $20 isn't too bad. Now if we could get gold to drop a $100, I'd be jumping all over that.
It dipped to $19.97 for a little while in after hours trading. Starting a slow climb now. I bought a bunch for spot price 2 weeks ago. I think it's going to stay low for a little while, plenty of time to buy a bunch. Buy gold today, for spot price a couple days ago. It's an opportunity, because this economy they're trying to sell us on, is not the shining light they're claiming it is, and they can hide the real numbers for only so long.
Branden
