My hope is when 2023 rolls in all of you guy's can say - Look, Hobo was wrong.
Let's watch it unfold.
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Let's watch it unfold.
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View thread Contact supportWhat ever you are smokin', sniffin' or drinkin'...... Please share it with the rest of us.Wtf are you talking about? The economy is booming
Easy to have that kind of expansion when the year before they had gdp shutdown to almost 0. It’s just like Biden creating all those jobs. I’m no, what happened is people went back to work. Amazing.GDP expanded 5.7% last year - fastest pace since 1984. Not disagreeing we are gonna have a Recession but right this very minute, aside from The Market checking/correcting itself pretty well in January shit looks good for me. Concerned about inflation *but* I think that might just be a sign of all the bullshit we have been thru the last 18 months.
We'll see.
VooDoo
100% will be in recession.Just some things I ran across this morning 2/1/2022
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Jobs Openings Are Rising While U.S. Workers Continue to Quit in Droves
Gold prices climb back above $1,800, on track for second straight session gain
U.S. factories grow at slowest pace in 14 months amid omicron wave, ISM finds
FedEx suspends domestic express freight services as omicron hits staffing
Soros pours $125M into super PAC ahead of midterms
Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11.0 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 23.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7.2 percent.
Justice Stephen Breyer’s impending retirement gives President Joe Biden his first chance to fill a seat on the Supreme Court.
Employment costs increased 4% from a year ago, the fastest in the 20-year data history,
Refinance applications fell 13% for the week and were 53% lower year over year.
GDP expanded 5.7% last year
They are estimating 7 rate hikes this year. I think they r doneDepends how much more helicopter money the Fed can dole out.
I heard it was 200 rate hikes. Wish they would just nuke it and raise that shit to 20%They are estimating 7 rate hikes this year. I think they r done
You are absolutely insane.Wtf are you talking about? The economy is booming
I was discussing one aspect of this with a friend... rates have been in the tank for quite a long time. In a related note, for years 2020 and 2021 there have been around $1.4 TRILLION dollars in share buybacks. Those corporations can borrow money at extremely low rates and buy back shares....which is one of the primary reasons we've seen the stock market doing what it's been doing. Just in 2021 alone there were around $850 billion in buybacks.Depends how much more helicopter money the Fed can dole out.
Durable items.!What's a better hedge? Silver, Gold or Primers?
Beans, boolits, and band-aidsWhat's a better hedge? Silver, Gold or Primers?
I term that "digging the hole deeper"..... I have children who are raising my grand children. For their sake I hope I am proven wrong about a recession. They are better off than most but are working lot's of OT to keep their kids in good schools. I have been there and done that. The shirt below is 36 years old. Older than many SH members. Bought when the oil industry crashed in Louisiana. It seems to have come out and be worn during every recession. When we worked under an extended contract with no retro active clause, worked 3 - 4 days a week so the entire crew could be retained, had equipment owners bringing cash to pay us on the jobs because his bank accounts were froze and he took a second on his house to pay us, medical coverage ran out and we could not afford the COBRA, guy's were hiding their vehicles in the friends garage so the repo man could not snag them.....Depends how much more helicopter money the Fed can dole out.
The best hedge is to take any spare cash and pay off credit card debt... Take care of your credit rating.... If this goes on for long people will be using credit cards to buy groceries. Seen it 3 - 4 times in my life. And they are not doing it to build points... Credit card companies will stealthfully remove those perks. They are already now offering BNPL... They are ahead of the curve on debt to come.What's a better hedge? Silver, Gold or Primers?
I'm with Hobo on this.My hope is when 2023 rolls in all of you guy's can say - Look, Hobo was wrong.
Let's watch it unfold.
I'm in agreement with you... We may squabble over some of the minor propaganda, but that's life.But that's Capitalism, right? The next crash it *always* there - it is inevitable. So long as there is money and Capitalism there will be ups/downs, crashes/boom times. If you love Capitalism (and I do!) we'll have to deal with the Shenanigans and bullshit. I'm more pissed about the fact that our "Representation" uses all this information they get before anyone else does to trade stocks and manipulate the market to huge advantage than I am about inflation.
Inflation has been many times what they have been reporting it at for decades...don't believe it? Look at the price of cars, refrigerators, homes, and even food....my Wife and I put every receipt, everything we buy, in a spreadsheet and she makes charts of it. Inflation has *not* been nominal over the last 30 years. I'm surprised (and concerned) that it's being made a big deal of now by The Media. Why now? Why not 10 years ago?
As always, we are being played, lied to, and manipulated and the only real fact is that the Uber Rich will continue to get filthy. So put yer money where the Big Money is.
VooDoo
Meh, looks like a good time to invest on some solid companies to me.
I started talking’s about this in 2020. Big funds are buying physical real estate this time around.I'm in agreement with you... We may squabble over some of the minor propaganda, but that's life.
When the Saving's and Loan's crashed and the government ended up with thousands of houses, they created the Resolution Trust Corporation to 'bundle" defaulted properties and sold then to the Big Banks. Even the Big Banks did not want the Albatross. The Government sent money to the Big Banks so they would buy the properties.
Fast forward to 2022.... Blackstone is salivating and waiting for the next mass housing default. Blackstone will keep the US Government (FHA< VA< Etc) from getting another black eye.
Yes, it is capitalism.
Maybe. But I look at it like this, if America falls, the world falls. Period. End of story. If it’s gets that bad, none of the stuff we are talking about above is going to matter. It will simply be survival. Those in control of the game, have a vested interest, their own, to keep things going.There is the old saying..."the market can stay irrational a whole lot longer than you can stay solvent"
There is no telling when or even if things will correct back to reality. That said if or when it does NOTHING will be off limits.
I remember some of your comments... Wasn't sure you wanted to make it public.I started talking’s about this in 2020. Big funds are buying physical real estate this time around.
Rental income in perpetuity, and asset appreciation. Yield.
I don't know man... look at the eviction moratoriums last year. The government rewards the irresponsible and the responsible are left holding the bag. If we're expecting things to go south, I don't know that I want to depend on people paying their rent.I remember some of your comments... Wasn't sure you wanted to make it public.
I would enjoy picking up a property or two, locally... Soon it will be time to watch the "Preliminary Notice of Default's"....
In the 80's, While working out of Los Angeles, I became acquainted with a hard working young man who had purchased one of the programs on buying foreclosure properties (Yes, the one's with 8 cassette recordings). He started in the poor Latino communities since he was bi-lingual. Families he had known for many years with aging parents who were in foreclosure. He explained he would buy their house and they could just pay him the same amount for rent that they were paying the bank. He pyramided them over. We joked with him about becoming a slum lord. In 5 years he built himself a mansion in LaHabra, CA. He was a hard worker, sharp, a good learner... He caught the wave.
At the bottom of this recession, there will be yet another wave.
What about the Russian oligarchs? They made out like bandits when the USSR imploded.Maybe. But I look at it like this, if America falls, the world falls. Period. End of story. If it’s gets that bad, none of the stuff we are talking about above is going to matter. It will simply be survival. Those in control of the game, have a vested interest, their own, to keep things going.
I have not read through this. I would imagine Blackstone has any eviction moratorium's covered in their lease agreement. After all, they have a lot of attorney's on retainer.I don't know man... look at the eviction moratoriums last year. The government rewards the irresponsible and the responsible are left holding the bag. If we're expecting things to go south, I don't know that I want to depend on people paying their rent.
What about the Russian oligarchs? They made out like bandits when the USSR imploded.
1. Elites shore up their wealth in relatively stable assets the average Joe knows nothing about.
2. Shit hits the fan and big gov bails out the overleveraged through a subsidized mortgage buyout program.
3. Big gov liquidates those mortgages to the elites for pennies on the dollar.
4. The left celebrates their crisis aversion, the elites own everything and taxpayers foot the bill over the next 50 years.
Just a thought.
I can't think of any situation where a contract supercedes law.I have not read through this. I would imagine Blackstone has any eviction moratorium's covered in their lease agreement. After all, they have a lot of attorney's on retainer.
https://blackstoneam.com/lease/
PLAI can't think of any situation where a contract supercedes law.
They could "forgive the debt" to themselves.... And then take on some of the other $23.5 trillion debt. That would leave the Nation $17 trillion in debt... MagicThe Alarm has been sounding for quite some time.
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'Sound the alarm': National debt hits $30 trillion as economists warn of impact for Americans
Economists say U.S. is on unsustainable fiscal path that can push up interest rates and mean less money is available to care for the poor and elderly.www.usatoday.com
You lost me there.
Until the Joe’s say enough is enough. Nobody is untouchable. Period. Americans are slow to anger but when they lash out, it’s bloody. History proves it. Something to also ponder. It’s not a game I would want to play. The fact that anyone thinks they can control this is crazy and that will likely be what destroys everything. But like I said, you at least won’t be alone.I don't know man... look at the eviction moratoriums last year. The government rewards the irresponsible and the responsible are left holding the bag. If we're expecting things to go south, I don't know that I want to depend on people paying their rent.
What about the Russian oligarchs? They made out like bandits when the USSR imploded.
1. Elites shore up their wealth in relatively stable assets the average Joe knows nothing about.
2. Shit hits the fan and big gov bails out the overleveraged through a subsidized mortgage buyout program.
3. Big gov liquidates those mortgages to the elites for pennies on the dollar.
4. The left celebrates their crisis aversion, the elites own everything and taxpayers foot the bill over the next 50 years.
Just a thought.
Unfortunately your not wrong it will be worse. We are heading to hyperinflation depression and a currency collapse. It my not be in 2022 but it's comingMy hope is when 2023 rolls in all of you guy's can say - Look, Hobo was wrong.
Let's watch it unfold.
But is the general public smart enough to realize what's going on?Until the Joe’s say enough is enough. Nobody is untouchable. Period. Americans are slow to anger but when they lash out, it’s bloody. History proves it. Something to also ponder. It’s not a game I would want to play. The fact that anyone thinks they can control this is crazy and that will likely be what destroys everything. But like I said, you at least won’t be alone.
Understood. I am going to give an over simplified example.You lost me there.
How does a PLA supercede subsequent laws?
Wtf are you talking about? The economy is booming
I don't know man... look at the eviction moratoriums last year. The government rewards the irresponsible and the responsible are left holding the bag. If we're expecting things to go south, I don't know that I want to depend on people paying their rent.
People are not the same as before. So I’m not so sure! If all this shit and bills they pass and try to pass happened in 1940, we would already have new leadership!Until the Joe’s say enough is enough. Nobody is untouchable. Period. Americans are slow to anger but when they lash out, it’s bloody. History proves it. Something to also ponder. It’s not a game I would want to play. The fact that anyone thinks they can control this is crazy and that will likely be what destroys everything. But like I said, you at least won’t be alone.
Aren't PLAs based on prevailing wage rates set by the comptroller though? In other words, the rates aren't based on law?Understood. I am going to give an over simplified example.
Let's say that the minimum wage on a construction project in their State is $10 / hour. The contractor can negotiate a PLA that says he will pay $9 / hour. After a few months the workers decide they want to make $10 / hour (minimum wage) and go to the Labor Board. The Labor Board will tell them they agreed to work for less than minimum wage and they do on have a case.
During recessions I worked PLA jobs. We gave up break time, OT on weekends, safety requirements. We had to leave the tool boxes open and put our tools away after the whistle blew, on our own time.
The flip side to this is "Prevailing Wages" where local craftsmen make $10 / hour and if they work a prevailing wage job they would make $12 / hour.
Roughly how a PLA works.
I vote primers!What's a better hedge? Silver, Gold or Primers?