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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
Multi unit housing, industrial/commercial RE and emerging markets, from what I’ve seen.
Until the gub'mint says you dont have to pay youre rent because __________________. (fill in the blank).
I was considering buying some rental property but realized that is some sack of shit said Im not gonna pay, I'D end up in jail.
Im going with a liquor/cannabis store and a string of hookers.
People will spend money on booze and dope to kill the pain of starving to death.
Housing market not a bubble, Realtors, bankers say
Jan. 30—In recent months, CNN, the Washington Post and several other national media outlets have asked if America is heading into another housing bubble, like the one that crashed the economy in 2007-09 and led to the Great Recession. The general conclusion has been that economists say we're...
I don’t really see a major housing crash. Even if mass defaults were to happen among homeowners, I believe enough real estate has been bought by companies that it won’t be anywhere near as bad as the housing crash that came with the Great Recession. Plus, there is a big inventory shortage as it currently stands.
Even if housing prices dropped 50% tomorrow, that would put me at break even to where the value was in 2019. Prices have gone up that much.
At this point, I don’t even know if a full blown recession is even possible. I believe our nobles up in D.C. would do anything to prevent that because I think that will be the straw that kicks off what nobody wants to happen.
The great reset is happening right now. The government has printed too much money. Crypto is under attack by the government. A United States “digital dollar” will be created. Cash will be outlawed.
The World Economic Forum and the International Monetary Fund are working on a global financial system takeover. The slogan “Build Back Better” isn’t just a Biden catchphrase.
The World Economic Forum and the International Monetary Fund are working on a global financial system takeover. The slogan “Build Back Better” isn’t just a Biden catchphrase.
I think hyper inflation is more likely. They'll print money even faster than they are now.
Debt on a fixed rate is a good thing right now
Cash is very bad.
The Market. Wall Street has taken a huge dump in January - worst January (almost) ever for the Stock Market which means tons of Mutual Funds are cheap, cheap, cheap. I pulled 120K out of Mama's stash and bought a bunch of the stuff that got it's ass kicked in January (Vanguard VTSAX and others) and made over 4% in 2 days this week. $5K+. But I'm sure to lose it all when all these companies go under in the next couple years....say goodbye to Tesla and Amazon and MacDonald's, Apple, Microsoft, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., NVIDIA Corp.....all gonna go away and I'll lose everything.
The fabulously rich have been buying their own stock. Which is funny because that's exactly what I have been doing - buying their Stock. In this entire world of uncertainty and dread one thing I know will happen: The Richest of The Rich will continue to rake in all the cash and tokens in the Big Monopoly Game that is the World/US Economy. Literally I have been acting like a millionaire the last 6 years and it's working.
Until it all falls apart. In the mean time I'm pretty happy.
VooDoo
TINA- There is no alternative. Everyone wants yield, and stonks and physical real estate are the places to get it.
Oof . PayPal and Facefail down 25% on earnings. Margin calls are are going to hurt some people.
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It may fall apart quicker than you think: China's gold-backed petroyuanThe Market. Wall Street has taken a huge dump in January - worst January (almost) ever for the Stock Market which means tons of Mutual Funds are cheap, cheap, cheap. I pulled 120K out of Mama's stash and bought a bunch of the stuff that got it's ass kicked in January (Vanguard VTSAX and others) and made over 4% in 2 days this week. $5K+. But I'm sure to lose it all when all these companies go under in the next couple years....say goodbye to Tesla and Amazon and MacDonald's, Apple, Microsoft, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., NVIDIA Corp.....all gonna go away and I'll lose everything.
The fabulously rich have been buying their own stock. Which is funny because that's exactly what I have been doing - buying their Stock. In this entire world of uncertainty and dread one thing I know will happen: The Richest of The Rich will continue to rake in all the cash and tokens in the Big Monopoly Game that is the World/US Economy. Literally I have been acting like a millionaire the last 6 years and it's working.
Until it all falls apart. In the mean time I'm pretty happy.
VooDoo
China Just Launched this Attack on the USD
And the weird thing is, it has created an intriguing opportunity...
freekit.birchgold.com
Politicians use Keynesian economics as a hall pass to dump money into transfer payments and stimulus plans. Mainly for the purpose of getting re-elected because the money doesn’t go where it needed to go. Who doesn’t like to spend someone else’s money.
The Fed really wants to keep asset prices up and get that extra tax money off inflation. All while telling you they want to bring inflation down. Since, this administration took on more national debt, raising the FFR is going to increase interest payment on national debt.
If recession comes, they’ll go back to expansionary fiscal policies. They’ll cut taxes and increase transfer payments again like the did durning covid. And so the cycle continues.
But hey the government knows what they’re doing. For every dollar they use, there’s about a -60% return on it if we use the Great Recession as the most recent example of expansionary policies.
Meanwhile everyone is trying to YOLO stocks and crypto which is also contributing to inflation. To the moon mfers has really dumped unnecessary volatility. Algorithm trading probably isn’t helping either.
The Fed really wants to keep asset prices up and get that extra tax money off inflation. All while telling you they want to bring inflation down. Since, this administration took on more national debt, raising the FFR is going to increase interest payment on national debt.
If recession comes, they’ll go back to expansionary fiscal policies. They’ll cut taxes and increase transfer payments again like the did durning covid. And so the cycle continues.
But hey the government knows what they’re doing. For every dollar they use, there’s about a -60% return on it if we use the Great Recession as the most recent example of expansionary policies.
Meanwhile everyone is trying to YOLO stocks and crypto which is also contributing to inflation. To the moon mfers has really dumped unnecessary volatility. Algorithm trading probably isn’t helping either.
Agreed, yeah probably right. Inflation is killing personal spending. Shortages in raw materials is stifling tech and manufacturing. Not saying your are 100% but I suspect a Stag-Flation type scenario is already playing out.
I do hope you're wrong
Watch what the world powers are doing, prior to the recession.
Greece plans to repay last IMF bailout loans early – sources
By Lefteris Papadimas ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece plans to repay more than 7 billion euros in loans from the International Monetary Fund and eurozone partners in the next two months, paying down the
www.oann.com
Move fast and break things
Mmm, starting to pick up those delicious March 2000 and October 2007 vibes. You know - when everyone goes from saying "there's no way the market could crash right now" to "well of course the ride was going to end" in timeframes ranging from milliseconds to years depending how hard they'd bought into the prevailing narrative.
Or maybe it's just a headfake, and the hesitant will leave a ton of money on the table for the aggressive to pick up. Kinda hard to tell.
Like we have all heard when these economic signs start to appear....Move fast and break things
Mmm, starting to pick up those delicious March 2000 and October 2007 vibes. You know - when everyone goes from saying "there's no way the market could crash right now" to "well of course the ride was going to end" in timeframes ranging from milliseconds to years depending how hard they'd bought into the prevailing narrative.
Or maybe it's just a headfake, and the hesitant will leave a ton of money on the table for the aggressive to pick up. Kinda hard to tell.
It's not the fall that will get you....... It's the landing.
The Fed has not started using the catch phrase "Soft Landing"....
I’m hoping to pick up some PayPal between $80-$100. I have buys staggered there.
Not interested in FB/Meta. I think they know their platform is going the way of MySpace.
Not interested in FB/Meta. I think they know their platform is going the way of MySpace.
Yep. Wait for the drop, buy low, ride it up, sell rinse and repeat or hang on to it. None of those companies going anywhere. If I had bought $1000 worth of nVidia in 99 and hung onto it, I’d be retired right now with multi millions off of that one investment.The Market. Wall Street has taken a huge dump in January - worst January (almost) ever for the Stock Market which means tons of Mutual Funds are cheap, cheap, cheap. I pulled 120K out of Mama's stash and bought a bunch of the stuff that got it's ass kicked in January (Vanguard VTSAX and others) and made over 4% in 2 days this week. $5K+. But I'm sure to lose it all when all these companies go under in the next couple years....say goodbye to Tesla and Amazon and MacDonald's, Apple, Microsoft, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., NVIDIA Corp.....all gonna go away and I'll lose everything.
The fabulously rich have been buying their own stock. Which is funny because that's exactly what I have been doing - buying their Stock. In this entire world of uncertainty and dread one thing I know will happen: The Richest of The Rich will continue to rake in all the cash and tokens in the Big Monopoly Game that is the World/US Economy. Literally I have been acting like a millionaire the last 6 years and it's working.
Until it all falls apart. In the mean time I'm pretty happy.
VooDoo
Whores wear out, and their cooches get blown out. Plus they have annoying habits most of the time.
Do they really wear out? They can pass babies through there with decent elasticity
I remember somebody telling you guys, while you were having fantasies about hyperinflation, that the issue was that there were high, but balanced, risks on both sides for the economy to deal with, and not just one risk. Seems prescient now, n'est-ce pas?
I just knew this shit was coming......... Had that feeling about the Biden administration... Making slaves work for less is part of their plan.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/PYFGVV22JFKU3AIDPXU2FMECUE.jpg)
Biden to sign executive order boosting rights of 200,000 construction workers
U.S. President Joe Biden will sign an executive order on Friday requiring "project labor agreements" in federal construction projects over $35 million, a potential boost to workers and unions that negotiate these deals, and a shift the administration says will speed up building times.
www.reuters.com
But...but...a Crash/Correction is *always* on the horizon. The folks that predict it's all gonna come apart soon are always 100% correct - it's Capitalism. It's gonna correct, crash, burn and fail. And then it'll pick it's ass up and go higher/better and the folks who sell their holdings in the top of the line, time tested Corporations will take the loss up the ass. And I'll buy their loss and have everything I lost back in 2 years and a nice profit.
Or I could just keep it in the Bank where it's nice and safe and watch inflation eat it all up. Most of these companies are exploding - The Economy exploded the last few months....GDP growth is stunning. Inflation? Yup maybe. But I'm not betting the Farm that we are done and it's all gonna crash and burn in 2022. And if it does? I'll have worse problems than no money.
VooDoo
Or I could just keep it in the Bank where it's nice and safe and watch inflation eat it all up. Most of these companies are exploding - The Economy exploded the last few months....GDP growth is stunning. Inflation? Yup maybe. But I'm not betting the Farm that we are done and it's all gonna crash and burn in 2022. And if it does? I'll have worse problems than no money.
VooDoo
You have just completed a very old psychological mental exercise.... Congrats.
Calm your mind.
Visualize the very best a situation could turn out.
Next
Visualize the very worst that situation could turn out.
The reality is the situation is going to turn out somewhere between the best and worst.
Mentally, you have "written a file" for the future.
Sometimes it is fun to jot down a short note and hide it away in a book or other place where you will run across it at a later date. Checks and balances.
I'm interested in hearing the story behind, or the magic tool for, sucking 5% out of inflation while not affecting asset values and employment levels, the latter of which is already below baseline. It doesn't matter how things "feel" right now, the issue is that, while I haven't been in grad school since the early 90s, there isn't a particularly well known silver bullet for such a situation.
Obviously, I have been saying this since day one in the inflation thread, that the issue is competing risks and competing tools, but I didn't convince anybody there, and probably won't here either.
Obviously, I have been saying this since day one in the inflation thread, that the issue is competing risks and competing tools, but I didn't convince anybody there, and probably won't here either.
I agree... Many of the older CEO's and Money Manager's have weathered about 3 recessions. Those are the companies and funds that bought back their own stocks, ignored all of the fake news and politics. Their philosophy is "It's just Business".
This is such fucking meaningless twaddle that it's embarrassing. Money managers and funds don't buy back their own shares, and there is very little correlation between experience and returns. In fact, what you see more likely is managers constantly fighting the last war, the last recession, believing that things repeat themselves. Like there is some inexorable law.
Oh, and I am just shy of 50, have been managing money professionally since 1996, have seen three recessions, and none looked like the one before it. In fact, each looked exactly unlike the one before it. Have you ever even spoken with an actual professional money manager? Not some stockbroker from eTrade or the desk boy at your local Raymond James? Because what you are saying is complete bullshit.
It reads like somebody watched Billions last night and now has an opinion.
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That’s a rather impolite way of saying you disagree.
Ha. If I wanted to disagree, I would. The problem is that what he is saying is a bunch of performative nonsense based in unreality. It is one thing to have an opinion on the economy with which I can disagree. It is another thing to make up fantasies about how a business I've worked in for nearly three decades operates. It would be like me coming in and telling people how things actually go in basic training. Hell, I wouldn't even begin to tell you how people "really" invest in residential properties, even though it is a much more related field.
Normally I don't care, but when people are giving advice to people about their life savings, something I am careful not to do though I am paid to do so, it makes me bristle when it is a truckload of bullshit.
ETA: From the point of view of actual prediction, I made clear in the inflation thread that I thought the chances of hyperinflation were about nil, mainly because the Fed has all the tools available to fight it. At the same time I said I thought there was real risk in the face of any softness that the Fed has no tools. Inflation has been high, but certainly not hyperinflation by any means, but now we are at the point where everybody knows they have to raise rates rather quickly, or lose all credibility. Nobody can put forth a scenario in which that is possible without creating significant weakness in asset values and employment, so that is what I continue to see.
That isn't investment advice. Investment gains come from your being able to be more right than the general assumption, so you need to know the general assumption as well.
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This is where I think I'm finding some disagreement with your assessment of the Fed facing "balanced risks". Either the Fed allows inflation to rip, or it crashes equity values, tanks the labor market, and creates deflation which then leads to debt defaults. To me, that's not "balanced".
A hypothetical situation where the Fed was able to fulfill Kurtz's dream of a snail on a straight razor would represent "balanced" risks, but I don't think that's possible and I don't know anyone else who does. Even stripping away ego and politics and every other human shortcoming, it's a control system with large latency and low gain - a classic recipe for overshoot.
In the sense that these risks and tools do at least offset each other, yes, I agree with you 100%. So at least we maybe aren't as fucked as if we had already shoved QE and ZIRP to the firewall and were still heading into a recession.
I see what you are getting at, but it is a technical term the fed uses to say that inflation and recession are equally likely. Don't fault me on that. What I mean, and meant, by balanced and high is that not only is the wire they are walking exceedingly thin, but the stakes on each side are higher than normal because of prior actions. I also mentioned that the fed currently has more tools to fight inflation than to fight softness, and people like to use the tools they have. Finally, it is generally believed that a central bank needs to be seen as vigilant and capable w/r/t to inflation, or else confidence fails, while they can suck a bit on employment without too much recrimination.
But as to terminology, as I am sure you know, the longer you are in an industry, the more you are used to talking to people with like backgrounds and vocabularies. Perhaps it isn't a great term in a normal space.
Understood, and thanks for the clarification
Given that last quarter's GDP increase was largely driven by inventory build (over 3/4 of the total growth), I am curious to see how much the Fed will actually need to do. I don't have a good feel for household finances so it's hard to wager a guess what demand will do, but if the floodgates are getting ready to creek open every so slowly on the supply side, it strikes me that we might be yet again heading into the beginning of the end of expansion at the same time the Fed is getting ready to increase rates because it feels necessary to retain credibility or because they're looking at six-month-old data or whatever. Could be fun.
Depends. You can see inventory increases leading into and expansion, because investment had been cut at the bottom and things are improving, or you can see them right before things soften. Things are so inorganic right now due to fiscal and monetary policy, and stop and start reopenings in various sectors and geographic areas, that reading economic tea leaves is hard.
My guess is that credibility is the most important thing to the Fed right now, so they will act more forcefully than not. The ramifications of a modest attempt to bring down inflation, and only going from 8 to 7, or worse seeing something like the release of the SPR where gas prices are now higher, brings in risks we have not seen in our lifetimes. A distinct move away from focusing on that credibility would be a sea change in economic policy. I don't see our current Fed chair as a radical in that way, and in the end, it's his call.
The political liability, of course, is that people feel inflation for months and years after it abates, and they feel unemployment and asset value loss immediately, so in that way it is a bit of a double whammy.
My guess is that credibility is the most important thing to the Fed right now, so they will act more forcefully than not. The ramifications of a modest attempt to bring down inflation, and only going from 8 to 7, or worse seeing something like the release of the SPR where gas prices are now higher, brings in risks we have not seen in our lifetimes. A distinct move away from focusing on that credibility would be a sea change in economic policy. I don't see our current Fed chair as a radical in that way, and in the end, it's his call.
The political liability, of course, is that people feel inflation for months and years after it abates, and they feel unemployment and asset value loss immediately, so in that way it is a bit of a double whammy.
Looking at this through the very narrow lens of my industry, I'm fascinated by the prospects of the auto industry trying to ramp up production into a period of declining organic demand + substantial interest rate hike. I don't think every industry is facing that same risk, and I don't know that tight Fed policy will fix anything with energy, food, or housing costs, so from a political standpoint we could indeed be looking at a situation where people are losing jobs while their grocery and fuel bills keep climbing.
All is this is a very long-winded way to suggest not getting locked into last year's narrative.
All is this is a very long-winded way to suggest not getting locked into last year's narrative.
Last sentence is the key. People like to go on and on about how history repeats, but in these ways it does not. We continually fortify ourselves against the last catastrophe and in doing so leave new weak spots. That is what irked me so about the above silliness. If you learn anything from the last several recessions and financial 'crises' it is that they can come about in many ways, and that, in general, the same people do not do well in each one.
Dudes. It's all over - Capitalism has *failed* and recent stock market declines along with rampant and uncontrollable inflation spell the absolute *end* of not only our Republic but Capitalism itself. Save yerself and if you have any stock or holdings sell them all now and buy bullets and rice...maybe some medical supplies like Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine sulfate, vitamin D, and maybe some antibiotics, sterile compresses and pain meds.
Sell *all* your holdings and investments tomorrow and go hide in the basement and comfort yourself that everyone who has not followed suit will soon be broke, dead, starved and desperate. Oh. My. God. Inflation. Like we have never seen that before and *Holy Fuck* it has been foisted upon US by Brandon and Crew. Trust me...sell all yer investments tomorrow and buckle up for The End.
I'm buying more stock tomorrow and need ya'll to sell at a loss so please get after it.
VooDoo
Sell *all* your holdings and investments tomorrow and go hide in the basement and comfort yourself that everyone who has not followed suit will soon be broke, dead, starved and desperate. Oh. My. God. Inflation. Like we have never seen that before and *Holy Fuck* it has been foisted upon US by Brandon and Crew. Trust me...sell all yer investments tomorrow and buckle up for The End.
I'm buying more stock tomorrow and need ya'll to sell at a loss so please get after it.
VooDoo
I wouldn't say it's a characteristic of capitalism, per se, but rather, the debt based economy in the US. Our cash is literally borrowed from the Federal Reserve, which is where the "national debt" comes from (among other sources). Printed money comes with an interest rate.
Digging the hole deeper:
The U.S. trade deficit increased in December as imports surged amid the restocking of shelves by businesses, culminating in the largest shortfall on record in 2021.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that the trade deficit rose 1.8% to $80.7 billion in December. Data for November was revised lower to show a $79.3 billion gap instead of the previously reported $80.2 billion. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a $83.0 billion deficit.
The deficit jumped 27.0% to $859.1 billion in 2021. That was the highest on record and followed a $676.7 billion shortfall in 2020.
The U.S. trade deficit increased in December as imports surged amid the restocking of shelves by businesses, culminating in the largest shortfall on record in 2021.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that the trade deficit rose 1.8% to $80.7 billion in December. Data for November was revised lower to show a $79.3 billion gap instead of the previously reported $80.2 billion. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a $83.0 billion deficit.
The deficit jumped 27.0% to $859.1 billion in 2021. That was the highest on record and followed a $676.7 billion shortfall in 2020.
This is not capitalism, this is the government and the federal reserve bank manipulating our economy deciding who is "to big to fail" (meaning has a shitload of loans the tax payers need to back or investors will loose money) and convincing us all this is capitalism.
ain't seen nothing yet hell is sure to be comming with 3 more years of joe and the dimacrat cronies . Wait till they steal all the elections and pack the courts .
From what I've been told we here in America we're supposed to have lead the charge some time around November. One person showed up. I never even heard of it untill last week. We are either in the dark as to the planning of such events, or comfortable with our slavery wanting other people to do the work for us.
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