Some background speculation to the spectacularly fast fall of the Assad regime
I believe that the key reason for the collapse of the Syrian army after the conflict was frozen due to Assad's failed reforms. In the face of economic problems following US occupation of oil and wheat fields combined with CESAR act sanctions, traditional sources of income got supplemented by mass production of synthetic drug Captagon, turning state business into pseudo drug cartel , low on funds Assad got a bright idea to "optimize" size of the millitary, while also cutting their salaries. He replaced almost the entire army command staff with "his" people , who thus received carte blanche for any corruption, extortion and theft of soldiers' salaries. There were reports that the salaries of Syrian soldiers were reduced to $30, and some began to receive it in the form of groceries and other products. Many veterans left the army, unable to feed their families. What was left, folks who were unable or unwilling to find a better job.
This is a fatal mistake, mercenary armies run on $$ . The Syrian army was made up mostly of Sunni Arabs from various tribes, for whom the rule of the Alawite Assad was tolerated only for good money, and the interests of the Syrian nation always came second to interests of the tribe .
Popular and capable commanders like Suheil al-Hassan , were seen as a threat and marginalized post 'victory' , assigned to command small units that couldn't threaten a Coup.
Iranian and Russian support ,was rather hands off ,never took the form in which they would actually puppeteer Assad , also aside from military backing neither Iran nor Russia invested much into keeping Syria economically afloat. Aside from some oil and wheat, there were no bags of cash being flown in to pay the salaries.
Israel kneecaped Hezbollah quite effectively, taking it off the board as a fighting force in Syria as well as grinding down both Iranian and Syrian militias with years of Airstrikes , Russian military presence in Syria is at minimal levels ,given pressing needs on a home front. Iran has it own issues and US control over border crossings prevents move of large numbers of men and equipment across borders . So the IRGC expeditionary corps for Syria is a limited officer cadre commanding some Afghans (Iranians have an outsized Afghan refugee population, that is the main source of cannon fodder for Syria,IRGC own personel footprint is extremely small ),Iranian backed Iraqi PMUs that could muster men and firepower, are held from intervening by US forces holding the border crossings.
End of the day we will see if Syria falls completely or fractures along tribal lines, in couple of days when euphoria cools of Jihadis will face pressure to pay salaries of all the turncoats that are now welcoming them, so now the question is just is Biden going to start flying pallets of cash to finance this or will they ask GCC arabs to do that , as otherwise, DEI jihadis might soon find out that without a massive infusion of $$$ DEI will end up at gunpoint, every one for himself and his tribe Mad Max style
Israel is already eying annexing south of Syria.
As for Assad and Loyalists i imagine they moved to Latakia and Tartus leaving Damascus. Where their Tribes are dominant.
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