I'm running some numbers through this Berger stability calculator:
https://bergerbullets.com/twist-rate-calculator/
For 175 gr bullets with a 16.5" barrel generating MV of 2345fps or so, the 1:12 Twist is producing marginally stable SG values from 1.2-1.5 at sea level from 0 Deg F to 100 Deg F.
The same round at 2000 feet is producing SG factors that are marginally stable from 1.3-1.6 from 0 deg F to 100 deg F
At 4000 ft it is basically stable I think with SG factors from 1.4-1.7 for temps 0-100deg F.
For a 168 going 2450fps out of such a 16" barrel, at 0ft sea level, from temps 0-100deg F, I'm getting SG of 1.36-1.65
At 2000ft above sea level, from temps 0-100deg F, I'm getting SG of 1.46-1.78
4000ft above sea level, 0-100deg F, SG: 1.57-1.92
Bit more tabulated and easy to read:
175 gr, 16.5" barrel, MV of 2345fps or so:
0ft Elevation, 0-100deg F, SG: 1.2-1.5, marginal
2000ft Elev, 0-100deg F, SG: 1.3-1.6, marginal/stable
4000ft Elev, 0-100deg F, SG: 1.4-1.7, stable
168gr, 2450fps out of 16" barrel:
0ft sea level, 0-100deg F, SG: 1.36-1.65, marginal/stable
2000ft, 0-100deg F, SG: 1.46-1.78, stable
4000ft, 0-100deg F, SG: 1.57-1.92, stable
So overall it seems like perhaps if I don't go to 15" but rather keep it around 16-16.5", the 1:12 twist should work so long as I'm not shooting in the freezing cold at sea level, at least not with these 168-175 grain bullets?