401K down 15%, Advice?

#51
My 401k is also in the tank. I always tell myself not to look at it, then look. Then I get pissed. Then I get over it.

I have always been a "ride it out" type guy. This year, I just have a very uneasy feeling. I have been in the construction industry my entire professional life, and admittedly, much of my take on our economy is based on the ins and outs of that industry. I am old enough to have been in this profession in 08/09 when shit got "weird". From what I am seeing right now, we are in a completely different universe. I have seen the large, commercial projects I have been involved in go from $200-250 a sq ft to 500-600 in less than 2 years. It's fucking nuts and honestly has me pretty freaked out.

The volatility has me on high alert for sure.
 
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#52
Ride it out. Don't panic and sell. If you sell now you have locked your loss in. Right now its just numbers on a paper. (or a computer screen)

I'm not an expert, but I've been through these for 40+ years. They have always come back. It wouldn't be a bad strategy to increase you contribution. Maybe not all at once but a little at a time.
 
#54
Yes, ride it out. Buy more if you can. Invest in solid companies. They want you to sell because they, being the rich, will come buy your shares up cheap and ride it up again. If the solid companies go under then we have much larger problems and your 401k won’t matter anyways. I was down by half of what I was last year around this time, a couple days go by and now I’m only down about 21%. My point is, hold. I don’t think we have seen bottom yet either. So if you got money on the sidelines, keep it that way, until the next drop. I don’t think we will hit bottom until likely between now and November. Feds gonna raise rates again next week 1/2 to 3/4%. They gonna over correct and when they do it will likely be time to buy.

Alternatively you could daily cost avg and move on and stop worrying or trying to time anything. Nobody can time the market but you can try and get close.
 
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#55
My opinion is keep trucking along and buy when you can.

You have to remember that the politicians can't let the market tank forever because everyone's retirement is tied up in it.

If they do let it tank that bad and permanently then skills, guns, ammo, and tools are worth more than your retirement anyway. At that point no one will be worried about the market with everything else going on.
 
#58
If you honestly think that the market will continue to go down, then make a move to cash and try to time the bottom. Doing so in '08-'09 or the March-April '20 blip would have been lucrative. Mistiming the market can be extremely costly as well.

If you don't have the confidence to time these entry and exit points, then let it ride.
 
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#60
E. Bryant said:
If you honestly think that the market will continue to go down, then make a move to cash and try to time the bottom. Doing so in '08-'09 or the March-April '20 blip would have been lucrative. Mistiming the market can be extremely costly as well.

If you don't have the confidence to time these entry and exit points, then let it ride.
Click to expand...

Its to late to get out. Sometime in late April was when a death cross formed in the S&P 500(50 DMA > 2% under the 200 DMA)... Thats the time to get out... yea you lost some money from the highs, but from April 20th(4459) to yesterday(3889) you would have lost ~10% from that day. Prior to that the indicators didnt point to getting out. Some people will trade at 1% spread from the 50-200, but most long term traders will wait until at least a 2% spread which is a confirmation, but obviously takes longer to develop.
Screen Shot 2022-07-22 at 9.10.35 AM.png


The 50 DMA in the past week has started to level off. This could indicate its going to turn up. Its currently ~10% under the 200DMA which a lot of people see as floors to corrections, outside factors like Covid not withstanding.

So looking at the long-ish term chart of the S&P it actually could be time to double down as the market could turn bearish at least in the short term. If it throws a leg back over the 200DMA good things are on the horizon.
 
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#61
I personally think we are pretty close to the bottom but I'm not in a hurry or trying to time anything. I'm just sitting here watching the whole thing like a Hot Mess and looking for a change. This has generally been the Market for the last few years - it jumps around for no apparent reason like a 16 YO ADHD patient on Prom Night. Everything is volatile and lots of folks are buying/selling on hunches or out of terror and forgetting that the best Way is to stay invested for the long haul. Buy low - sell high. It's low now - Buy like a Mother Fucker if you have the money. That's what me and Mama are gonna do with her $120K Nest Egg. And she's a Farmers Daughter and allergic to risk where money is concerned and she's been following my investing for about 10 years and she's thinking this whole thing might be a Correction that has been predicted for the last few years. Well...here it is.

VooDoo
 
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#62
sirhrmechanic said:
If you are coming to The Bear Pit for financial advice.... I'm surprised your 401K is not down 60 percent!

Have you seen what these guys post?

Cheers, Sirhr

PS.... ride it out. The pendulum swings. Don't sweat it. Buy low....
Click to expand...


Where does one get a pile of sand big enough to bury one's head under and not to see what's going on?

 
#63
BAMAboy18 said:
I'm obviously not a financial wiz (or I'd be rich) Spent my 401K on commercial property about 20 years ago that disappeared in my divorce, along with so much more.
I'm 58 and WAY behind now. Probably have to work until I take my dirt nap.
Employer only matches 3%,
I contribute 10%. It's very unsettling to watch it dwindling down, and my instinct says "DO SOMETHING, SAVE ME!!" But I've read that is not the thing to do, as most people miss the rebound. I don't see a rebound happening. My plan is in Vanguard growth. I've looked at the other options available to me, but they all seem to be dropping pretty much the same rate. At a 3% match I feel like it's all for not.
Any advice, suggestions?
I'm pretty sure I could do better (and have) investing in guns & ammo.
Click to expand...
If you try to time the market you will in all probability fail and have worse performance over time.

If you sell now, you just bought the loss.

Hang on to you ass and do nothing except diversify your investments. Being in one growth fund is a recipe for disaster.
 
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#67
So it's been 8 months since I asked about this. And it's disturbing to me still, as for everything I contribute, it only raises my balance 50% of said contribution. Wasn't sure when I first noticed that 2 months ago, so I started screenshots, and sure enough! Where is my other 50% going?! I turn 59 in May, I don't want to have to work until I die. Back in my 30s my plan was to retire at 55 and I could have except I divorced my ex at 48 and started all over. I don't have any substantial debt; $7k balance on a truck and a 3 store credit accounts, only 1 with a balance that will be paid off before the interest free period ends, I only have these to work my credit score up. Everything else is paid for. Since 2018 I've vested a little over $20k in my 401. It's just that missing 50% disturbing me...
 
#69
BAMAboy18 said:
So it's been 8 months since I asked about this. And it's disturbing to me still, as for everything I contribute, it only raises my balance 50% of said contribution. Wasn't sure when I first noticed that 2 months ago, so I started screenshots, and sure enough! Where is my other 50% going?! I turn 59 in May, I don't want to have to work until I die. Back in my 30s my plan was to retire at 55 and I could have except I divorced my ex at 48 and started all over. I don't have any substantial debt; $7k balance on a truck and a 3 store credit accounts, only 1 with a balance that will be paid off before the interest free period ends, I only have these to work my credit score up. Everything else is paid for. Since 2018 I've vested a little over $20k in my 401. It's just that missing 50% disturbing me...
Click to expand...
Are you 100% vested?
 
#75
BAMAboy18 said:
It's more like $220 every two weeks and shows my vested balance increasing a little over a $100
Click to expand...
Sounds like you have a tiered vested balance then. Most places you have to work a certain amount of time before you are completely vested. Your money is always yours to take but it usually goes something like this. 1-3 years and you 20%, 5-7 and 60% and then 10 or over you are at 100% or something like that. Every company is different. I’d be contacting my HR department and asking them what’s up.
 
#77
Best not to look at it too often in a bear market. In the end you will come out ahead.

FWIW, I'm down more than 125K from my peak, and recently have taken steps to max out the 401K and Roth IRA per year.
 
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#80
In the last 5 years, the S&P 500 is up 50%. In the last 10 years, the S&P500 is up 150%. In the last 20 years, the S&P500 is up 325%. If you believe in the next 10 years McDonalds will still be flipping burgers, Exxon will still be pumping gas, and Apple will still be selling iPhones, and NAPA will still be selling oil filters, and Merck will still be selling pills, then stay in the market. The market is ultimately driven by earnings over the long term. The short term is nothing but noise intended to confuse you. If you really believe the 500 largest companies in the US will be much worse off in 10 years, then buy land and gold. Hint: You can buy both in stock market in very liquid forms. Forget trying to time the market. No one has ever done it consistently. I have lost much, much more money not being in the market than being in the market.

You need to spend $500 on the advice of a financial planner. Your retirement date combined with the performance of the market over the next 5 years following retirement will have a profound impact on your financial security. This is why you need a planner to help you plan your retirement income. The fact that you came here for advice indicates you really need a professional. Find one that doesn't sell anything but advice. Otherwise, your planner will be working in his best interests, not yours. Since you are playing catchup, you will likely need to work longer than you'd like, but with a good supplemental income from your investments, you may be able to pick the jobs you like doing and/or work part time.

I've been retired for 5 years now. I retired when my investment income started exceeding my working wages by 125%. I live off my investments and haven't tapped social security yet. My 'plan' is to invest about 80% of my investments in dividend paying stocks that kick off about 3% in annual dividends with the dividends growing at about 6% each year to cover inflation. I'm losing on dividend growth vs. inflation part over the last 2 years, but I still live comfortably on the dividends and I think inflation will be tamed by the rise in interest rates. The other 20% is invested in growth stocks because they typically increase in value much faster than dividend paying stocks.

Since I can live on the 3% dividend, I don't care if these stocks go down. I don't intend or need to sell them, ever. If they go up, then I get the best of both worlds. A 15% drop is immaterial. So is a 40%-50% drop as long as my companies don't cut their dividend. These large downward swings just allow me to place any extra cash in bargain basement priced high quality companies.
 
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#81
Missalot said:
In the last 5 years, the S&P 500 is up 50%. In the last 10 years, the S&P500 is up 150%. In the last 20 years, the S&P500 is up 325%. If you believe in the next 10 years McDonalds will still be flipping burgers, Exxon will still be pumping gas, and Apple will still be selling iPhones, and NAPA will still be selling oil filters, and Merck will still be selling pills, then stay in the market. The market is ultimately driven by earnings over the long term. The short term is nothing but noise intended to confuse you. If you really believe the 500 largest companies in the US will be much worse off in 10 years, then buy land and gold. Hint: You can buy both in stock market in very liquid forms. Forget trying to time the market. No one has ever done it consistently. I have lost much, much more money not being in the market than being in the market.

You need to spend $500 on the advice of a financial planner. Your retirement date combined with the performance of the market over the next 5 years following retirement will have a profound impact on your financial security. This is why you need a planner to help you plan your retirement income. The fact that you came here for advice indicates you really need a professional. Find one that doesn't sell anything but advice. Otherwise, your planner will be working in his best interests, not yours. Since you are playing catchup, you will likely need to work longer than you'd like, but with a good supplemental income from your investments, you may be able to pick the jobs you like doing and/or work part time.

I've been retired for 5 years now. I retired when my investment income started exceeding my working wages by 125%. I live off my investments and haven't tapped social security yet. My 'plan' is to invest about 80% of my investments in dividend paying stocks that kick off about 3% in annual dividends with the dividends growing at about 6% each year to cover inflation. I'm losing on dividend growth vs. inflation part over the last 2 years, but I still live comfortably on the dividends and I think inflation will be tamed by the rise in interest rates. The other 20% is invested in growth stocks because they typically increase in value much faster than dividend paying stocks.

Since I can live on the 3% dividend, I don't care if these stocks go down. I don't intend or need to sell them, ever. If they go up, then I get the best of both worlds. A 15% drop is immaterial. So is a 40%-50% drop as long as my companies don't cut their dividend. These large downward swings just allow me to place any extra cash in bargain basement priced high quality companies.
Click to expand...
Your timing was excellent to build your nest egg.
The financial world has changed. The business world has changed. Nothing will ever go back the way it was "pre-pandemic".
If you started today, making the exact same moves you made historically things would not work out near as well.
The FED Reserve / Jerome Powell were thinking "pre-pandemic" with a frame work from 30 years ago. They were caught sitting on their hands.
All they are doing is changing the meaning of financial terms.... Rolling recession, Transitory, etc.
The worst is yet to come. Inventories are being used up and nothing is getting restocked.
Congratulations on your nest egg.
 
#82
Hobo Hilton said:
Your timing was excellent to build your nest egg.
The financial world has changed. The business world has changed. Nothing will ever go back the way it was "pre-pandemic".
If you started today, making the exact same moves you made historically things would not work out near as well.
The FED Reserve / Jerome Powell were thinking "pre-pandemic" with a frame work from 30 years ago. They were caught sitting on their hands.
All they are doing is changing the meaning of financial terms.... Rolling recession, Transitory, etc.
The worst is yet to come. Inventories are being used up and nothing is getting restocked.
Congratulations on your nest egg.
Click to expand...
Yeah. I’m down 57% from where I was two years ago, across the board. It sucks and if I was 62 or 65 I’m not sure what the heck I would do. Luckily I got 23 years or so before I can remotely consider retirement. I also have a brand new Honda that I’ve been waiting on a damn key fob for for well over 7 months now and I keep getting told that it’s ordered but they have no idea when it will be in. In fact I have orders at over 10 dealerships for a damn spare. Basically I’m told getting parts for anything is a real pain in the ass right now and they don’t know when it will get better, if ever.
 
#83
Missalot said:
In the last 5 years, the S&P 500 is up 50%. In the last 10 years, the S&P500 is up 150%. In the last 20 years, the S&P500 is up 325%. If you believe in the next 10 years McDonalds will still be flipping burgers, Exxon will still be pumping gas, and Apple will still be selling iPhones, and NAPA will still be selling oil filters, and Merck will still be selling pills, then stay in the market. The market is ultimately driven by earnings over the long term. The short term is nothing but noise intended to confuse you. If you really believe the 500 largest companies in the US will be much worse off in 10 years, then buy land and gold. Hint: You can buy both in stock market in very liquid forms. Forget trying to time the market. No one has ever done it consistently. I have lost much, much more money not being in the market than being in the market.

You need to spend $500 on the advice of a financial planner. Your retirement date combined with the performance of the market over the next 5 years following retirement will have a profound impact on your financial security. This is why you need a planner to help you plan your retirement income. The fact that you came here for advice indicates you really need a professional. Find one that doesn't sell anything but advice. Otherwise, your planner will be working in his best interests, not yours. Since you are playing catchup, you will likely need to work longer than you'd like, but with a good supplemental income from your investments, you may be able to pick the jobs you like doing and/or work part time.

I've been retired for 5 years now. I retired when my investment income started exceeding my working wages by 125%. I live off my investments and haven't tapped social security yet. My 'plan' is to invest about 80% of my investments in dividend paying stocks that kick off about 3% in annual dividends with the dividends growing at about 6% each year to cover inflation. I'm losing on dividend growth vs. inflation part over the last 2 years, but I still live comfortably on the dividends and I think inflation will be tamed by the rise in interest rates. The other 20% is invested in growth stocks because they typically increase in value much faster than dividend paying stocks.

Since I can live on the 3% dividend, I don't care if these stocks go down. I don't intend or need to sell them, ever. If they go up, then I get the best of both worlds. A 15% drop is immaterial. So is a 40%-50% drop as long as my companies don't cut their dividend. These large downward swings just allow me to place any extra cash in bargain basement priced high quality companies.
Click to expand...
Outstanding love to read this nice work. Right now is a perfect example of why relying on being able to sell assets for cap gains in retirement is an incredibly difficult task. While looking at unrealized gains and a daily liquidation value of one's portfolio can be fun it doesn't generate income until sold. Further it can lead to tragic decision making in highly volatile times. When I fired my (unnamed broker in case someone on SH works for them)FA in 2009 I switched from their manic insanity of in/out high bash balances to managing my own dividend income streams. Guys were flipping insane I honestly would not let them manage my money today if they called me and said 'well pay you 3% to manage your portfolio'.

Enjoy your retirement and 'missalot' maybe goes to 'missinless'?
 
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#84
SilentStalkr said:
Yeah. I’m down 57% from where I was two years ago, across the board. It sucks and if I was 62 or 65 I’m not sure what the heck I would do. Luckily I got 23 years or so before I can remotely consider retirement. I also have a brand new Honda that I’ve been waiting on a damn key fob for for well over 7 months now and I keep getting told that it’s ordered but they have no idea when it will be in. In fact I have orders at over 10 dealerships for a damn spare. Basically I’m told getting parts for anything is a real pain in the ass right now and they don’t know when it will get better, if ever.
Click to expand...
As the recession takes hold, businesses will reduce inventory. Having a shelf full of key fobs just sitting there ties up their money. Commodities are the same. Copper and lithium, both valuable, are not being stockpiled. That, in itself, will add to the duration of this recession. I call this phenomenon a "sweep the floor" situation. Commodities, parts, natural resources are being swept up in a final pile to be used to produce a product. We saw it with computer chips. The old supply chain phrase "just in time" is not working out in 2023. Big business is doing a "stock buy back" rather than building a new plant and producing a product. Similar to a "Going out of Business Sale"... It has taken a few years to dig this hole, it will take a "few years +" to climb out of the hole. With the US Government continuing to print USD's they are continuing to dig us deeper.
 
#85
Not to mention our senile Chief Imbecile Cuck with both hands on American energy squeezing with all his might. Cheap energy would shorten this recession, but driving prices through the roof prolongs it, probably till the usurper is gone.
 
#87
Srgt. Hulka said:
I’ve lost about $220,000 in my retirement since FJB became President. I’m due to retire in about two years. My financial guy says stay the course and don’t panic. How the fuck can I not panic when I’ve watches $220,000 evaporate, with no light at the end of this very dark tunnel?
Click to expand...

Id totally rethink everything. With a banking collapse and a highly possible dollar devaluation coming. I’d be stacking silver and gold coins. Along with garden seeds. Hyperinflation is going to kill everyone’s 401ks. It’s all part of there Plan to go to the CBDC.

Remember what Q said Trust The Plan. YEA Right. I’d say we have a few weeks till thing really show there ugly head.
 
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#88
Srgt. Hulka said:
I’ve lost about $220,000 in my retirement since FJB became President. I’m due to retire in about two years. My financial guy says stay the course and don’t panic. How the fuck can I not panic when I’ve watches $220,000 evaporate, with no light at the end of this very dark tunnel?
Click to expand...
The silver lining = Your financial guy is doing well, financially.
 
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