A friend works for an electric service provider. The shortage of transformers has been well known and only gotten worse. Here’s the latest. Plan accordingly…
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Another indicator of collapse…
- Thread starter Killswitch Engage
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Time to go shopping when I get out of work. Anyone know the weight of these boxes? Info on how to cut the power to one would be beneficial as well.
Ive got a couple propane tanks and a Mr. Buddy. And lots of gallons of water.
Thats exaggerated, I work with a bunch of utility companies, they are about 20% higher and 1 yr lead time.
there's been electric parts supply shortages for a couple of years now. if you live in a hurricane prone area, and it take a out a large part of the grid, theres no telling when resupply of parts might happen.
usually a back hoe
Then you act like you didn't know it was there...All the time ignoring the, "underground lines buried here" Warnings LOLyou better be fast, AZ SRP shows up in 10 mins or less... time is $$$$$$$$$
This is correct. Prices are higher...lead times are longer. As with most things in our world these days.
I posted this up in another thread, but will do it again as it fits. First off the cause, is it a dumb ass that does not know rule #1, know your target and what is behind it, or was it someone a long way off doing this to cause the damage, but not so bad a damage that it would really hurt, don't know. But because of the latter and the very nature of this board figured it would be a good idea to bring it up.
What is interesting during the video he says, there is no way to tell how long the power would be down if other equipment got hit. The replacement parts just don't exist.....anywhere.
Now they are talking of "hardening" some of these type places, what will that do to your electric rates.
What is interesting during the video he says, there is no way to tell how long the power would be down if other equipment got hit. The replacement parts just don't exist.....anywhere.
Now they are talking of "hardening" some of these type places, what will that do to your electric rates.
Most everyone knows we're fuk'd if there's an EMP attack. 1 high altitude detonation and 80% of USA's grid goes down.
Without electricity, Choas ensuses. 80% of Pop dies in 6 months. hell 3/4 of America is on some type of medicine. Figure 99% of those medicines are NOT made in the USA anymore (covid exposed this).
It would be ugly for sure.
I think most politicians would rather hide it out in a shelter and pop their head out in a year or two.
I don't believe they want to spend the $$ on hardening the electrical grid; too much $$ to be made in Ukraine.
I have one in front of my house. It's 20yrs old and 900ft off the road and under tree cover. I always wondered the life expectancy and who covered the cost should it need replacing. I'm honestly surprised the power company never gave me grief due to the location.
I'm an Electrical Engineer for a MEP consulting firm, and we're seeing the same thing, about a year lead time. Not just transformers, but all major electrical equipment, switchgear, generators, etc.
20 years old for a transformer is not old at all. They should last almost forever as long as it's not damaged in some way.
Everything upstream of the meter belongs to the power company. If you have a concern, three are people at the power company that you can contact and let them know what the problem may be, but ultimately, it's up to them to decide if it needs replacing.
this was as of today and this is first hand from my very close friend. he doesn't exaggerate anything. if anything he sometimes doesn't convey the seriousness of things. maybe the utlitiy companies youre working with are much larger and getting a better price break and or first crack at supply. if he said this to me it is simply fact.
Retired Electrical Lineman here. I don't remember what a 50KVA pad mount transformer weighs but one of them will squat a 1/2 ton pickup. You won't be picking it up by hand!
Whats inside of one? About 2/3rds of it is a sealed area full of the windings and oil. You mostly will have a feeder cable that enters and leaves going to another transformer, or switch. In and out if you will. Then you will usually have several services or secondary cables that serve the customer/customers. You can see whats inside from the video.
They have no moving parts and will last just about forever. Lightning will burn one up. And we would loose one every once in a while due to automobile wrecks or damage from heavy equipment. And sometimes the bushing seals will develop an oil leak. This involved a hazmat team for the oil clean-up.
Voltage varies from one utility to another but our primary voltage was the nominal 7620 regulated up to 8000. 13,200 is common to some other utilities and you will also see some 19,900/34,500 some time.
Cost? I don't know the cost. I do know they are not as expensive as one would guess, but still not cheap. The biggest cost is often in the labor required to change one out and from the lost revenue from the down time. And any required hazmat clean-up. Most utilities keep a pretty good stock of residential and light commercial transformers. Substation transformers cost too much to keep very many spares although most larger companies have a few. Look at the yard the next time you drive by a service center. The utility usually foots the cost for replacement although they usually try to recoup the cost if its damaged by the customer or the public. (car weeks, ect)
The company that I worked for was governed by the State Public Service Commission. If we wanted/needed a rate increase we had to present the facts/evidence to justify the increase. I never knew of a case where we got what we ask for, just a portion. Our company operated on a max profit of about 10%. This wasn't 10% that was guaranteed, it was the max that we were allowed to make. This depended on watching cost, have mild weather events, ect. We did have a formula for fuel cost adjustment. I do remember getting a few temporary increases to cover severe storms like Katrina, Rita, ect.
Whats inside of one? About 2/3rds of it is a sealed area full of the windings and oil. You mostly will have a feeder cable that enters and leaves going to another transformer, or switch. In and out if you will. Then you will usually have several services or secondary cables that serve the customer/customers. You can see whats inside from the video.
They have no moving parts and will last just about forever. Lightning will burn one up. And we would loose one every once in a while due to automobile wrecks or damage from heavy equipment. And sometimes the bushing seals will develop an oil leak. This involved a hazmat team for the oil clean-up.
Voltage varies from one utility to another but our primary voltage was the nominal 7620 regulated up to 8000. 13,200 is common to some other utilities and you will also see some 19,900/34,500 some time.
Cost? I don't know the cost. I do know they are not as expensive as one would guess, but still not cheap. The biggest cost is often in the labor required to change one out and from the lost revenue from the down time. And any required hazmat clean-up. Most utilities keep a pretty good stock of residential and light commercial transformers. Substation transformers cost too much to keep very many spares although most larger companies have a few. Look at the yard the next time you drive by a service center. The utility usually foots the cost for replacement although they usually try to recoup the cost if its damaged by the customer or the public. (car weeks, ect)
The company that I worked for was governed by the State Public Service Commission. If we wanted/needed a rate increase we had to present the facts/evidence to justify the increase. I never knew of a case where we got what we ask for, just a portion. Our company operated on a max profit of about 10%. This wasn't 10% that was guaranteed, it was the max that we were allowed to make. This depended on watching cost, have mild weather events, ect. We did have a formula for fuel cost adjustment. I do remember getting a few temporary increases to cover severe storms like Katrina, Rita, ect.
In precon for a new medical facility and doing early procurement for switchgear and transformers due lead times which is about 12 months. Driving the critical path since we can't do any interior finishes until we can condition the building.
its really not rocket science. there arent stockpiles of jack shit anymore and that is in every industry that works within the just in time circle which is almost all. i work in the heavy fleet world and i can tell you 20% increase is the absolute bottom of what ive seen in the last year let alone 3yrs. that goes for parts, supplies, fluids, components, and vehicles/equipment itself.
i surmise the electrical supply and component industry is in much the same boat and talking to folks i know that appears to be the case.
i surmise the electrical supply and component industry is in much the same boat and talking to folks i know that appears to be the case.
They tell you it's a year lead time, but for a substantial extortion fee, you can get it 3-6 months earlier.
the greatest sales pitch ever why you should buy an electric car , so you can't charge it
Just an interesting FYI that oil in those transformers is very light in fact it’s light enough to burn in your diesel pick up truck perferbly mixed with some actual diesel………don’t ask me how I know.
what about the PCBs?Just an interesting FYI that oil in those transformers is very light in fact it’s light enough to burn in your diesel pick up truck perferbly mixed with some actual diesel………don’t ask me how I know.
I was driving home from work one rainy day, stopped at a traffic light when lightning hit one of those big transformers. It was impressive. Sounded like a stick of dynamite then a huge blue white arc engulfed the whole thing. It pulsed for about 10 seconds then went out. Reminded me of something out of Stargate, one of those things you remember.
How would you ever know that?Just an interesting FYI that oil in those transformers is very light in fact it’s light enough to burn in your diesel pick up truck perferbly mixed with some actual diesel………don’t ask me how I know.
PCBs were eliminated in 1979, so it would have to be a pretty old unit. That said, I'm sure there are a few still around.
Yeah, its mineral oil and is probably about 10 weight. We used to have a trucker that delivered transformers that always ask about us transformer oil. He would put 25 to 50 gallons in each sale tank.Just an interesting FYI that oil in those transformers is very light in fact it’s light enough to burn in your diesel pick up truck perferbly mixed with some actual diesel………don’t ask me how I know.
The raw materials scarcity is probably linked in some capacity to EU/nato buying up all of the available supply, trying to prop up the Ukranians.
Maybe so, but this started the day FJB took office, not the day FJB had Ukraine declare war on Russia.
I do a lot of underground distribution work. There is a shortage of underground x-formers in Ga. I know of utilities with 4 year lead times on x-formers. 40 week lead times on secondary pedestals. Hardware from re-conducts that’s normally scrapped is being reused. Single and 3ph equipment serving vacant properties on existing loops is being removed. They aren’t even setting terminating cabinets to take their place, just digging pits and making splices. They’re turning down new business. In new underground subdivisions that have been paid for, poles are being set, building primary risers to feed oh x-formers, then secondary risers to feed pedestals. In some of them, the wire is just stubbed up, pads set, and left until equipment becomes available. Lol, it’s crazy. Talking to some friends on the gulf coast, they have tons of xformers but short on wire.
I still don’t buy into the EMP hype. The voltage spike will damage “delicate” circuitry but it’s only gonna blow fuses and arrestors and maybe trip breakers on the grid. Aluminum and copper conductors aren’t going to become insulators and xformers will still step voltage up or down.
I still don’t buy into the EMP hype. The voltage spike will damage “delicate” circuitry but it’s only gonna blow fuses and arrestors and maybe trip breakers on the grid. Aluminum and copper conductors aren’t going to become insulators and xformers will still step voltage up or down.
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We still have xformers manufactured in the 1920’s on poles. Idk if the oil was changed. I don’t know when they stopped, but I’m pretty sure Allis Chalmers hasn’t produced xformers for a while.
Here's some reading for you.
Chinese Balloon
Now, this is more like it...... https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonexaminer.com%2Fnews%2Fwashington-secrets%2Fballoons-called-top-delivery-platform-for-nuclear-emp-attack
www.snipershide.com
". All non-hardened critical infrastructure elementsincluding those required to sustain thepopulace (power, food, water, sanitation etc.)would be incapacitated.
7
Electronic and solid-state devices (i.e. computers, SCADAS[Supervisory Control and Data AcquisitionSystems], power transformers, etc.) would be disabled within a millisecond. Additionally, research by the American Leadership & Policy Foundation revealsnuclear power station cooling will be adversely impacted, and, in some cases, fail after a prolonged loss of grid power (StationBlackout).
8"
people will have more energy and become industrious again. Instead of jacking off they'll be chopping firewood, tending gardens, raising chickens, and fighting small scale wars with neighboring towns.
Smaller service providers usually have the longest wait times. Not everyone is waiting 4 years.
Here's some reading for you.
Chinese Balloon
Now, this is more like it...... https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonexaminer.com%2Fnews%2Fwashington-secrets%2Fballoons-called-top-delivery-platform-for-nuclear-emp-attack
". All non-hardened critical infrastructure elementsincluding those required to sustain thepopulace (power, food, water, sanitation etc.)would be incapacitated.7Electronic and solid-state devices (i.e. computers, SCADAS[Supervisory Control and Data AcquisitionSystems], power transformers, etc.) would be disabled within a millisecond. Additionally, research by the American Leadership & Policy Foundation revealsnuclear power station cooling will be adversely impacted, and, in some cases, fail after a prolonged loss of grid power (StationBlackout).8"
I mean no disrespect by asking, but do you have any first hand knowledge of power generation, transmission, or distribution?
Arrestors are designed to bleed excessive voltage to ground which protects transformers. We put 25kv arrestors in the 14.4kv underground circuits we build. When the voltage exceeds 25kv, it bleeds off the excessive voltage. Guess what, the transformers still work. Lightning strikes and solar storms happen. We haven’t fell back to the Stone Age yet.
The grid isn’t fully integrated. It’s not under federal control. Yet.. You could lose the NW region of the country and the south east would still function.
There is also an order of restoration after a disaster. Government, hospitals, communication facilities, etc are first on the priority list. We all have that bug out plan, but that’s gonna put you into the areas where services will be restored last.
I could be wrong in underestimating the damage an EMP could cause. I hope I’m never proven wrong. In my non-electrical engineer, non-government funded opinion, cyber attacks on generation facilities and material damage from focused attacks on key components will be what causes massive outages.
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I've also seen a pole mounted, oil filled, transformer get hit by lightning.
What I saw was a fireball, about 50 foot in diameter from the burning and expanding oil.....went up about 100 foot or so.
Impressive display, lots of smoke and burning wires.
So...is this the perfect song or what ?
What I saw was a fireball, about 50 foot in diameter from the burning and expanding oil.....went up about 100 foot or so.
Impressive display, lots of smoke and burning wires.
So...is this the perfect song or what ?
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