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Carrington 2.0?
- Thread starter XP1K
- Start date
I watch this guy's stuff quite a bit. He's usually short and to the point. BP tends to get a little excited, this guy is more level headed.
I dont think we'll see anything major myself. It'll be interesting to see what all happens with earthquakes and volcanic activity though. I've only been paying attention to space weather for a couple years but there is always a correlation to things that happen on earth and what's happening with the sun.
Not if… when. And if we get an 1840’s level hit, we go back to the 14th century and could lose 6 billion people…
Sirhr
Sirhr
This is a subject w/in the Ham ranks, as the AFD/CBT starts at 0000 zulu (UTC) today. What is predicted is more Geomagnetic. Course it would be a great time for an agenda to rear its head. Nothing from Uncle or ARMY MARS about caging up anything as of yet. Course if an agenda comes calling those who don't cage as a norm, will be w/o their backup comms until they get them repaired or replaced.
www.swpc.noaa.gov
Homepage | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
This time yes.
But we missed one in, IIRC, 2012 that would have put us back 800 years.
I’m not joking when I say 6 billion dead. It will take 2-4 years. But if electricity collapses everything comes apart. And a CME the scale of Carrington will wipe out the earth’s grid.
For starters, there are 1 million people in airliners/planes in the air at any one time worldwide. They die either instantly when planes shut down or within hours when they can’t land because nav systems fail, airports go dark and fuel runs out.
Today will be a Nothingburger.
But we are 50+ years over due for a once-in a century event. And u like 1840’s where electricity was a novelty, next time it will take out the very basic foundation that lets the planet currently support its massive urban (and advanced) population. And there is no way to “bring the power back” if a strong-scale CME or Emp event hits us.
Moreover, we lose the knowledge of “how” to bring it back. All those great digital archives are electricity dependent and we won’t have tools to read them. And anyone think someone is going to “dust off”’paper blueprints and build power grid with hammers and files? Because there won’t be any lathes working either.
We have been in a several-hundred-year Goldilocks zone as a species. And while Al the paid-off greenie science-Druid idiots are braying on about CO2, the thing that is going to get us is not plant food!
Whatever it will be will be unexpected, unstoppable and they only way to “survive” it in any numbers is to have enough hardened infrastructure and enough stored knowledge in an accessible form… that the survivors can rebuild in “some” way shape or form.
Sirhr
From Spaceweather.com -
SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM
WATCH: Giant sunspot AR3664 has now hurled at least four CMEs directly toward Earth. Their combined arrival this weekend could spark severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storms with mid- to low-latitude auroras. Although this is a potentially significant space weather event, it is not going to be the next Carrington Event. If the coming storm were a hurricane, it would be ranked category 4, not category 5.
*****
From the Ham radio perspective, there has been no noticeable effect on propagation as of this hour.
SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM
WATCH: Giant sunspot AR3664 has now hurled at least four CMEs directly toward Earth. Their combined arrival this weekend could spark severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storms with mid- to low-latitude auroras. Although this is a potentially significant space weather event, it is not going to be the next Carrington Event. If the coming storm were a hurricane, it would be ranked category 4, not category 5.
*****
From the Ham radio perspective, there has been no noticeable effect on propagation as of this hour.
Yep, not the doom and gloom, but....
...we MAY get aurora in lower lattitudes this weekend!
Apparently the plasma from these things (CMEs) tend to wreck havoc on satellites and can degrade their orbits.
Wonder if a Carrington level event would cause it to rain down more space junk.
Wonder if a Carrington level event would cause it to rain down more space junk.
Call your representatives. We need to ban AR3664s. There is no reason why these things are in our Sun during peacetime.
Probably not all at once.
If things were fried up there and couldn't be controlled, their orbits would slowly degrade and eventually come into the atmosphere where they would either completely or partially or not very much burn up depending.
The issue is then the crash spot for the debris would be a bit more random and whenever, so it might come down over where someone lives, or it might just land in the sea.
A carrington level event will rain debris but it will take time for orbits to decay.
Again… this ain’t it.
But it is inevitable that one will hit us. Next week? 200 years? No one can say. In theory we are currently (based on previous CME’s) in a 10% chance a year probability. That’s huge numbers.
I think the dangers of another CA megaquake is something like 1 percent a year.
Whatever… we live in a cosmic shooting gallery.
BTW I am up on all this because I proposed a talk on exactly this event for an Information Warfare conference this fall. Submitted it 6 weeks ago. Topic is about “recovery” and how to preserve information in non electronic form.
Funny, the organizers just left me a voice mail…. I wonder what they are asking?
Sirhr
If the zap arrives before you check it, you may never know. Should have written you a letter.
Your responses are compelling, and you sound like you’ve got subject matter expertise.
Do continue to enlighten us.
I know one of the podcasts I listen to really harps on building libraries with critical info on hard copies, not digital.
like the ending of the book of Eli. The movie.
The reason I keep a complete set of encyclopedia printed in 1962 & year books to 1999.
I'd could get use to doing things mid 1960's again.
That's pretty. I'd like to see them sometime. Probably don't want to see them on the gulf coast though.
Yeah but if we got carringtoned, it'd probably be more like 1760's again.
But I hear you. For as far as we've come technologically, we've degraded as a society. In my view anyway. I have a bad habit of seeing the glass half empty.
well put and accurate. 6 bil out of the 8 here now is prob conservative. the entire 1st world will likely lose 90%+ of it's pop. at the other end even up the amazon primatives are now mol dependent on modern metal,meds and some tech. africa is. US and west civ will be biggest losers. 2nd world like saudi,latin america,se asia etc will not escape. elites will tank. they have no skills or toughness and no way to "pay" or force others to work for them. correct in saying that lack of "hard copy" plans or instructions matters. the total dependence that the species has allowed on digital products and tools has made itself to vulnerable on every issue at every level. there will be enough metal,plastic,tools and textiles sitting around for some to make use of. the initial massive violence will be self limiting as the winning savages won't be able to feed themselves. as in times past food will be the big one. life expectancy will drop into the 30yr range at best. modern medicine,knowledge and tech will only be available a little for a year or so. knowledge of it's production and use will be wiped out when the cities go. mad max won't happen like the movies. no fuel will be available for more than a month. after about 2 years,the 12th century level is the best it will be. lastly,nobody will know it has happened. no modern comm you won't have any knowledge past a few blocks away if urban or a few miles if rural. hardening infrastructure is a must. not happening as worry about species survival in this setting makes one a panic monger or a non truster in "god". at least horses will become very important again if any survive the short term want for meat. hard times coming and we have done it to ourselves as a species.
right about that. cannibalism could become popular? survival of anyone > 50,even 40 is unlikely. am prepping and planning for 1 year survival,which i consider unlikely at my age. i doubt any rebuilding will be possible for years after a full on event. there will likely be no central authority or planning. gov will go in the shitter and have no real tools of universal control i think. might not be worth the trouble but in FL hurricanes can drop everything for months,so modest prepping.10k r of 5.56 and a 338 lapua might keep one alive during a violent societal event. but not gonna last real long on those. need a reliable group that can and will use knowledge and violence. talking real long term gonna be much luck needed.
Well, everyone is freaking out about plant food in the atmosphere.
That's not even close on the 'threat' level for humanity. Nor is AI. Or even nuclear exchange these days.
Carrington is number one. Major volcano is 2 (Think Campei Flagre or Yellowstone).. Number three is meteor/astroid strike.
You know that in the last 30 years, more money has been spent on "asteroids hitting the world" movies than has been spent on "stopping astroid hitting the world" defenses or hardening?
Nothing has been done for EMP/CME.
And volcano's... well can't do a damn thing about a major eruption. Honestly, I'd be more worried about Campo Flegre, or Son of Krakatoa... than Yellowstone. But all three are potential slate-wipers. So there ya go!
The trick is not going to be surviving them. But bouncing back. If all our knowledge of society is erased... the process becomes really tough. Sort of like losing the library at Alexandria.
There is an old saw among historians (and the math does not work... but it's still good...) "If the library at Alexandria had not been burned, the Centurions would have radio'd the news of Jesus' Crucifiction to Rome." Technically not correct on the historical timeline. But the theme resonates.
We are who we are because we stand on the shoulders of giants and can access their knowledge through writing and archives. The modern equivalent of burning the Library at Alexandria is the loss of power to digital archives. Or losing the computers needed to read them. We need a global initiative to get 'digital' content translated into a format that can be read with a simple solar-lit microscope -- aka 1920's technology. Think all the world's digital knowledge put on microdots and stored so it could be read with magnifying glasses/19th century microscopes.
Because otherwise it will be gone. Zorched out. Eliminated. And need to be rebuilt. Which will take, what, 500 years?
Just 'sayin.
Sirhr
Sirhr
For most yes, but not all. The sad part is the amount of killing that will have to be done, to maintain a viable life style for you & yours.
But it would not be what we, today, consider a "viable" lifestyle.
It would be a subsistence and survival lifestyle. Think Plymouth Colony or maybe Fort Pitt in 18th Century.
Viable lifestyle 'thought' to day might be thinking 1950's.
Try thinking best case as 1600's Europe.
Worst case is 1100's England.... and that might be a picnic compared to the rest of the planet.
We are in a Goldilocks zone. It either keeps getting better until we are all dead of old age... which is sort of an historical anomoly. Or it gets so far worse that we end up back in the dark ages for 1000 years... until we come out of it.
Either way, 90 - 99 percent of us are dead along with our heirs and progeny.
So we have that to look forward to. The only thing that makes the bounce-back slightly-less-painful is the preservation of knowledge so that the remaining humanoids can stand on the shoulders of previous generations. And not have to reinvent everything from scratch.
Regardless, we'll all (every one of us) be dead during the recovery. So best we can do is be there to accelerate the bounceback... or preserve knowledge and train the surviving generations. Yeah... 100 percent. I'm not wrong here. We have no 8-year-olds posting that I a aware of.
Sirhr
just to be argumentative,will say carrington would be rather down the list. definitely end civilization for 2k years. something like the permian event or cretaceous hit would take out most multicellular life. happened before. wonder about a super size volcano bigger x a bunch than krakatoa would do. species likely survive? civ likely not. a very good point about the loss of alexandria. i would say that the loss of baghdad library was almost as bad. don't think europeans knew much about greece or rome before translations of muslim works. OT but i think islam would maybe have developed more rationally if mongols hadn't almost wiped it out. just a guess. maybe wrong.
Of all the knowledge obtained and archived in some form or another in the last 100 years, how much of it would really be useful for rebuilding civilization after a massive catastrophic event like Carrington, or a Volcano, meteor, whatever. Is information pertaining to the dietary preferences of mice necessary? The migratory paths of butterflies? What about the gene sequencing information for human and animal DNA? There's a shitload of information in digital form, i'd wager that a very small, minute fraction of it really has any value to us, and even then, much of the stuff that's valuable still resides in someones brain.
Branden
Branden
Disagree. There is a large segment of the US population that has been prepping for this very thing for over 40-50 years. The biggest issue will be where to stack all the body's of those who die off because of many factors, & those who are trying to take.
40 60 & 80 are quite here.
At 0000 UTC I'll be starting the AFD/CBT on 20 meters to the USS Midway (CV-41) on the left coast so we'll see how that goes.
Whether she cums or not strikes me as an Ann Margaret problem and not anything the Hide needs to be concerned about. Either way she's apparently 83 now so throw her a Werther's Original and call it a day.
-LD
On one hand... yes.
On another what is 'expected/hoped-for' and what will happen could be very different.
I'd like to think you are right. Burt Gummer will thrive.
But things are never as good as one creates in a scenario.
Cheers,
Sirhr
Ya, but when your scenarios are based upon known ability's, it tends to play out as predicted.
good point but real books would be needed,assuming literacy remains. the people with knowledge in their brains aren't going to survive any more than any one else. staying alive will be time consuming and leave little time for educating the future. won't even be likely or possible for generations. books should still matter. we now know that "screen" education is grossly inferior to the socratic method,even lecture formats with interaction between educator and student. a shame that all this is destruction has been made possible and likely. a butlerian jihad would be a huge plus if offing computers and digital dependence didn't destroy civ. yes,i know we are now here using computers but IMHO net result for our species is a big negative.
