Look, we all have our life experiences to draw upon in analyzing data and making predictions. The best we can do is use the tools we have and apply them without bias or favor. Nothing wrong in simply stating why you think what you think, whether it is by explanation or displaying creds.
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Election predictions
- Thread starter Aries256
- Start date
Perhaps, but remember if it goes to the house it does not go to the current house but the incoming house. I hope we get the incoming house back.
I hate to break it to everyone, Trump aint getting no landslide victory. Not saying he won't win, but the left aint letting a landslide happen. Idc if he wins by 12 votes, he needs to win because our Republics future is literally on the line. This race isn't Trump v Biden. We all know Kamala is the only one on this ticket. She would be living in the West Wing in 6 months.
Simple.
Leave.
Unlike a lot of bitches here, I have a thick skin. And I'll be here for a long time. Hopefully, I'll even be able to keep this name. lol
Let's just go ahead and get it right out in the open which of you fucks I'm not going to get along with and which fucks I will.
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Na, they’re going to start reporting you to the mods as a “troll”, to get you banned. I’ve learned their playbook already
...The silence grows as Bancat takes a sniff...
Nah, false alarm. the only victim is the complainer.
Nah, false alarm. the only victim is the complainer.
WTH? Unidentified Civilian is Filmed Taking Official Ballot Box Away from Philly Polling Place - Stuffing it in his Car | The Gateway Pundit | by Jim Hoft
Via Mike Coudrey — Elections workers are now claiming voter machines are down in Scranton, Pennsylvania.
www.thegatewaypundit.com
Listen, I moderated a board for 10 years. You can go down that path if you want to. I hope it's based on the rules here that somehow I've already violated so that at least the Forum demonstrates that is accountable to its own rules. I took my cues from the language being used in this forum though. And, if I've done something wrong, I am happy to reform my behavior.. However, regardless of what happens, I'm not going anywhere. I know about IP bans too.
First of all, don’t try to dick measure on here unless you have a really big dick, and you don’t.
Nobody gives a rat's ass that you went to ranger school. Unless you are wearing a tan beret (which you aren't) GTFO and be average somewhere else.
Whoa, 27 months in theater, wow. 27 months nugging it out on a FOB is so damn hard. And you were in a SOTF? Holy shit!
Seriously, stop trying to pull this "I was kinda like a SOF guy except I got none of the training nor did I have the balls to go through the training pipeline to be one, but when I am on the internet I will play like I am the same thing as an operator to impress the chicks.) You have no idea how many guys we see do this and it is so fucking unoriginal that it should be illegal merely because it bores folks.
"But I have the Bronze Star" No one gives a fuck unless it has that little V on it, but you probably wouldn't know what that means anyway. You can get a BSM for being in a senior enlisted billet overseas and sitting on your fat ass eating pringles in the STOC all day.
You spent time in Germany? I'm sure that was so hard. In fact, it probably means you were one of the worst rear echelon support guys ever. I was supported by some guys in Germany who couldn't be bothered to leave their apartments, BMWs and the bars to make sure that my team was even being sent food where we were deployed.
Highest Pistol marksmanship? Based on what I have seen of line infantry guys who don't shoot their pistols much even if they are lucky enough to get them issued, it means that you are just barely able to not shoot your dick off. Although, considering how small yours is it is unlikely you could hit it anyway.
Your formal cert for range construction merely confirms that you were one of those worthless REMF NCOs who no one wanted on a line unit, let alone your vaunted Special Ops task force, so they stuck you on the largest base they could find and told you to shut up and build ranges for the guys who actually go out and do things.
Shut the fuck up, get a little humble, stop trying to "big dick" everyone here when you are new, and we might let you stay.
After all, we can always use a support guy to build ranges for those of us who actually shoot our guns.
Do as you please. Most here don't really care nearly as much about you and your agenda as you apparently do.
Methinks, you'll generally be met with a lot of apathy as opposed to camaraderie. But, play it as you see fit.
My guess ? Based on history of similar types of people that have come before you, hang time is between 2 and 4 weeks. Enjoy your last week here.
What data was presented?
For a data analyst, your posts sure lack data...
But if you have data, lets see it and discuss.
It's big enough to be here, which is what deersniper, who obviously has no dick, challenged over. And, you're about the 10th person in here that's misrepresented my statements, because the best anyone here can do is resort to attacking fiction they create, just like the rest of your post. No, I was not a nug, fobbit, rear-d, or support. I didn't misrepresent myself, and I know a lot of people pretend.
BTW, it seems to me you don't know much if you think I'm an NCO. Look at my name and the positions I held. I know that's going to give you even more shit to try and hold against me, but at least get your shit straight before you come at me.
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i think trump gets 58% of the popular votes and the ec in a landslide.
Having one person misrepresent your statement is their fault. When you get to 10 people, maybe it's you.
I'm just saying.....
Or, maybe it's the 10 -- that's what mobs do -- each of which I've dismantled when they tried. The nice thing about the internet is that you can address all comers 1 by 1.
That's why I'm catching all the flack in this thread. That's what you're trying to say, right? I'm right on target. lol
Lmaoooooo! Did you just pull your dick out and wave it around the room? Bold move. Let’s see how this plays out......
You're late to the party. You were paged, where you been ?........
That's at least twice today that he's done that.......I encouraged him to enjoy his last week here
“Not going anywhere, regardless of what happens”... I wouldn’t challenge the staff like that, not here... this place isn’t like other places.
just keep waving that dick bruh.
Say, do you bow hunt by chance or have sniper hat pin?
That I did, primarily slapping it in deersniper's face. It was great fun, and I think he liked it too ;-). BTW, focused back on the original point of this thread, the election is a coin flip now, according to 538, after selecting states for him he seems likely to win:
I'm sure that a shift in my position will be to the delight of those who rightfully distrusted the data. I just go where the data takes me, and I'm delighted at the shift, too.
I'm sure that a shift in my position will be to the delight of those who rightfully distrusted the data. I just go where the data takes me, and I'm delighted at the shift, too.
You're late to the party. You were paged, where you been ?........
That's at least twice today that he's done that.......I encouraged him to enjoy his last week here
I actually work sometimes and have a hot wife I spend time with.... I also bought a set of 22” tires for my wife’s coke wagon. I love buying tires!
I don't, but I'm buying an SR25 and have my eye on a 338 lapua bolt rifle. So, maybe I can figure out how to shoot like one.
..Good morning, fucks... er folks. Any predictions now?
To me it looks like he's got Pennsylvania. I've done some beer math on the counties that remained to report and if they continue to report at the same rates, the state will not turn towards Biden.
Georgia and NC are scary because it's only the Democrat bastions that haven't fully reported and the vote is so close. That will come down to a Razor's Edge, but again the beer math slightly sides with Trump.
Finally, I thought the same of Wisconsin and Michigan when I went to bed last night, that it would be extremely thin but Trump's edge would hold, but at this point it looks like they didn't hold. Their Electoral College votes, along with Nevada's, we'll put Biden over the top.
So it seems, at this moment, like Biden is still going to squeak it out. It's not over, but that's the way it looks. See anything different?
To me it looks like he's got Pennsylvania. I've done some beer math on the counties that remained to report and if they continue to report at the same rates, the state will not turn towards Biden.
Georgia and NC are scary because it's only the Democrat bastions that haven't fully reported and the vote is so close. That will come down to a Razor's Edge, but again the beer math slightly sides with Trump.
Finally, I thought the same of Wisconsin and Michigan when I went to bed last night, that it would be extremely thin but Trump's edge would hold, but at this point it looks like they didn't hold. Their Electoral College votes, along with Nevada's, we'll put Biden over the top.
So it seems, at this moment, like Biden is still going to squeak it out. It's not over, but that's the way it looks. See anything different?
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Not quite sure what "beer math" is but the overall hatred that is out there and directed towards the President is beyond belief. Fucking aliens from space could have landed here and started wiping out humanity and the battle cry would have been "Orange Man Bad!" Never mind we're getting massacred. Coupled with the fact that the goon squad was caught off guard in 2016 and has had 4 years to figure it out, put plans into place and make absolutely sure they get their new clowns in there by hook or crook. I'm not surprised to be honest. I recall somebody saying that we are simply outnumbered. Maybe not by much, but just enough. My own city voted 3 new tax levies into place. Who the fuck votes to impose a tax on themselves?
Reminds me of a question a moron coworker asked me one time. We recruit veterans heavily. He asked if I was a veteran. I told him no. I so much wanted to tell him I survived 8 years of the Obama administration so that has to count for something....we survived that. We'll survive this as well.
Coupled with the fact that the goon squad was caught off guard in 2016 and has had 4 years to figure it out, put plans into place and make absolutely sure they get their new clowns in there by hook or crook. I'm not surprised to be honest. I recall somebody saying that we are simply outnumbered. Maybe not by much, but just enough. My own city voted 3 new tax levies into place. Who the fuck votes to impose a tax on themselves? Reminds me of a question a moron coworker asked me one time. We recruit veterans heavily. He asked if I was a veteran. I told him no. I so much wanted to tell him I survived 8 years of the Obama administration so that has to count for something....we survived that. We'll survive this as well.
The answer to your question about voting to tax themselves more is folks that don't pay taxes.Not quite sure what "beer math" is but the overall hatred that is out there and directed towards the President is beyond belief. Fucking aliens from space could have landed here and started wiping out humanity and the battle cry would have been "Orange Man Bad!" Never mind we're getting massacred.
Reminds me of a question a moron coworker asked me one time. We recruit veterans heavily. He asked if I was a veteran. I told him no. I so much wanted to tell him I survived 8 years of the Obama administration so that has to count for something....we survived that. We'll survive this as well.
R
And here is you...
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My friend just said that there's talk that Arizona is about to flip back to Trump. I'm not sure of his source. So, I ran some numbers. I used election data from https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map and went county by county. Here are the results if the remainder of the expected votes match the current county rates:
The data does not suggest a flip for either state back to Trump.
The data does not suggest a flip for either state back to Trump.
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So, this comment, as non-controversial as it is, was in reference to work like this:
In this graph, we can see an adjustment from the polls to account for the national margin of error from 2016 in each state. Note how well that adjustment worked out. Only states that are so razor thin (PA undecided, & AZ) that they are being called late is there any deviation of outcome from the winning prediction in column 3. This is the type of extrapolation I was referring to, and even in this corrected poll, Biden still had the advantage.
Although, I did expect Biden to win, I was far less confident in that prediction this time around than I was last election against Hillary. It's the analysis like this that gave me the confidence to state, even in a forum as hateful of that opinion as this one turned out to be, that Biden had the advantage.
I'm not declaring a Biden victory. There's some small possibility that my analysis of Nevada is off and it will swingly strongly enough in favor of Trump. There's also an aberration in the data from Wisconsin I want to see addressed. How it jumped ~140k votes in a few minutes is concerning and needs to be investigated/explained more clearly.
Before going to bed at around 3am EST, I hadn't formally declared either state to the family that got its updates for me, but I had told them that a Trump victory in Wisconsin was likely. I did not anticipate the reversal, because I couldn't predict such a vast departure from the rates that we had seen throughout the election reporting to that point. That jump swayed the entire national election. It deserves to be investigated, but there are possible explanations aside from fraud.
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