As much as I know it’s not popular , I’m waiting to hear from
@Choid . He does see to have some insight on these things. That or he’s a Theis of finances.
Lol, well I have never asked anybody here for any money, so not Theis.
This really isn't my part of finance. I've always invested money for people, never worked as a banker, but my guess is that the board right now is doing everything it can to make sure big institutions don't want to take the tender. A huge percentage of Twitter stock is owned by institutions, not individuals, so there isn't really any convincing of the public that matters. One big investor, the Saudi Prince, has already rejected the offer, which isn't a great sign.
My guess is that if it looks like institutions want to take it, Twitter will then look for an alternate buyer to try to drive up the price. The problem is that Twitter is a pretty shitty company, by all rights. I think Goldman has a sell price on it of $30 or so. On the other hand, the stock has been higher than his offer, and they will try to make that argument as well. It really just comes down to how many of the big holders are willing to sell out their stakes at the offered price. They are all responsible to their investors and shareholders as well, and this is high profile, so they don't really want to hear about it when they said no and Twitter hits $20.
The culture war part of it is a total wildcard. I personally detest the level of asymmetric moderation Twitter employs, but I am not in charge. That said, I also do not think they, or anybody else, is responsible for providing a completely free speech platform, and know that there are massive reputational risks for businesses that allow some kinds of garbage content, particularly ugly race stuff, to show up on their site. I know I wouldn't allow it, but neither would I do what Twitter does. There seems to be a real culture of censorship in the Valley these days, unlike when I grew up there, and there may be people willing to pay to keep Twitter garbage. But it is a LOT of money, and not many people have that kind of money.
So I guess the finance stuff is easier than the culture war stuff, which is really tough to know.