Expectations As An ELR Marksman

[nick338]

As ELR marksman what is your caliber of choice and TRUE hit percentages on a 1 MOA target at the distances you shoot at? Trying to put together some useful information in a thread that can correlate specific cartridges and projectiles to distances and hits on target and how this applies to expectations.

I have come across some threads recently with people posting their ranges being stretched from 3-5k yards and everything in between. I'm happy at 1 mile. I would be ecstatic at 2100-2200 yards. I'm shooting a 300 Norma and I feel it's sweet spot is between 1-2K for an average hit percentage of 50% on a 1 MOA target. Obviously atmospherics and reloading practices play a major role in this.

The jury is still out on exactly what reloading practices have a quantifiable effect on hits and misses at ELR and atmospherics and shooter ability at these distances may have more of an impact then some of the steps we lose sleep on such as loading to the kernel, measuring primer seating depth, etc.

I am seeing what I believe to be a 15-20% hit percentage on average with some of the big 300's and 338's at distances around 3k, and worse farther out. Does it get better with 375's and larger? I'm sure spotting misses is easier but not that's not what I'm after.

What I really think is useful is finding out where a 50% hit ratio falls off, and what combination of cartridge, projectile and distance have the most effect on how far it can be extended.

 

[Steel head]

It also depends on what your dealing with as well.
Funky winds
Mirage

I find it a lot easier to get a decent hit percentage in flatter eastern Oregon and Washington than the mountain valleys in western Oregon and Washington I normally shoot.

 

[nick338]

It also depends on what your dealing with as well.
Funky winds
Mirage

I find it a lot easier to get a decent hit percentage in flatter eastern Oregon and Washington than the mountain valleys in western Oregon and Washington I normally shoot.

Understood and I'm sure we have all shot on shitty days and also on favorable days. But taking the mean data and finding out at what point certain combinations are more or less just lobbing bullets and getting lucky vs repeatable performance.

I would not expect to see the same performance from a 300 Win Mag at 2500 yards as a 375 CT, yet the best shooters may take that 300 and outshoot an inexperienced shooter with a 375.

There's a point where performance is overshadowed by distance and I'm curious where that starts with certain cartridges.

 

[Steel head]

Well with speed and BC you certainly gain an advantage with wind call and and the further you go the more advantage you get.

I’m pretty happy with my 338 performance with solids.
(.95ish G1 at 3030FPS)
I’m mainly building a 375 for the spotting advantage.

Obviously a 308 at 2miles is pissing in the wind as far as I’m concerned.
My 7mm did remarkably well at two miles when we could spot for it in decent conditions.
My 338 is noticeably easier at two miles.
I’d say 2/10-3/10 is a decent day but my targets are only 24X24” at two miles and beyond.
5/10 is a special day.
These are in places I had a lot of experience in and data on

 

[MadDuner]

I can hit a 24" target at 100 yds most days....
If the sun's not in my eyes!

 

[ma smith]

Applied ballistics models 338lm @ 1500m first shot hit prob @ ~ 50% vs std IPSC (loosely 1moa/ 1in per 100 yd) in below white paper.

Perhaps 2000 yd is plausibly the limit?

Source link:

https://appliedballisticsllc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Weapon-Employment-Zone-Analysis-of-the-Optimized-300-Winchester-Magnum-vs-338-Lapua-Magnum-With-Various-Ammunition-Types.pdf

 

[Matches Malone]

I’m kind of curious if there is a thread on here regarding hit probability.

 

[nick338]

Applied ballistics models 338lm @ 1500m first shot hit prob @ ~ 50% vs std IPSC (loosely 1moa/ 1in per 100 yd) in below white paper.

Perhaps 2000 yd is plausibly the limit?

Source link:

https://appliedballisticsllc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Weapon-Employment-Zone-Analysis-of-the-Optimized-300-Winchester-Magnum-vs-338-Lapua-Magnum-With-Various-Ammunition-Types.pdf

I have seen that link previously and it's one of the reasons I thought launching a 250 gr class bullet out of the Norma (higher bc and less recoil than the Lapua) would be a good place to start.

 

[Steel head]

I have seen that link previously and it's one of the reasons I thought launching a 250 gr class bullet out of the Norma (higher bc and less recoil than the Lapua) would be a good place to start.

That’s one of the reasons I went with 7 saum
Excellent BC
Decent speed
Mild recoil
It and 300NM are a nice combination hence why they are popular in the moderate range ELR competition.
Litz won NF ELR with Berger 245 LRHT at 2850ish in 300NM

My 338 is more of an unruly animal but is surpassing the above ballistics

 

[spamassassin]

My standard is for a first round, cold bore hit. How far that ends up being depends on conditions. 1k is about where it gets such that the best shooters can easily miss if wind is being gusty. 1500ish seems to be the next big line where you can miss on very small errors in your wind speed call. 2k-ish seems to be about where otherwise very small velocity variations that you might otherwise ignore are enough for a vertical miss. 2500m and beyond, without fantastic record keeping and lots of practice you're pretty much rolling dice. People shooting 3km-5km with shoulder fired rifles are, to my mind, just doing a thing to say they did it. It serves no real purpose and gains nobody any portable, reusable knowledge.

 

[BCX]

Correct if I’m wrong but it seems like all the cold bore records are held by 338 cal? KO2M won’t allow sub 338 cal cartridges.

 

[MACHTECH]

I'll throw my 2 cents in...... 33xc

 

[nick338]

Correct if I’m wrong but it seems like all the cold bore records are held by 338 cal? KO2M won’t allow sub 338 cal cartridges.

So let's dive right in. What are the hit percentages during these matches? Surely there must be plenty of data out there.

 

[BCX]

I don’t have the data. I’m sure someone here shoots those matches or hold a record…

 

[JB.IC]

Correct if I’m wrong but it seems like all the cold bore records are held by 338 cal? KO2M won’t allow sub 338 cal cartridges.

Hail to the New QUEEN of 2 Miles — Lindsey Paul « Daily Bulletin

This lady can shoot! Lindsey Paul is now officially the top ELR ace on the planet. The talented Texan beat a large field of competitors, including many past KO2M Champions, all guys. We congratulate Lindsey on her outstanding performance, including 3 hits in 5 shots at the max distance, 2.0...

bulletin.accurateshooter.com

Lindsey set the FCSA Cold Bore World Record in August 2021 at 2464yds with a 375CT. And then she won KO2M 2021.




Part of the fun in ELR is knowing you have a high chance of missing the target and yet getting impacts. 100% probability of impact is only interesting in the military and law enforcement. Outside of that, the interesting story is “you’re likely to miss but it’s far more interesting when you don’t.”

There’s the practical side and then there’s the “how far can we push it.” The latter is what ELR means to me.

Take PRS for example. Before that it was interesting to shoot a short action cartridge to 1000yds. Then it became uninteresting. Now we shoot standing off a barricade at 1000yds because it’s more fun. The limits keep getting pushed. The only interesting story to me is pushing the limits to make the once thought impossible, possible.

 

[BCX]

View all the past KO2M records. Has the caliber, yardage and hit ratio per shooter.

 

[Steel head]

Part of the fun in ELR is knowing you have a high chance of missing the target and yet getting impacts. 100% probability of impact is only interesting in the military and law enforcement. Outside of that, the interesting story is “you’re likely to miss but it’s far more interesting when you don’t.”

There’s the practical side and then there’s the “how far can we push it.” The latter is what ELR means to me.

This!

 

[nick338]

Hail to the New QUEEN of 2 Miles — Lindsey Paul « Daily Bulletin

This lady can shoot! Lindsey Paul is now officially the top ELR ace on the planet. The talented Texan beat a large field of competitors, including many past KO2M Champions, all guys. We congratulate Lindsey on her outstanding performance, including 3 hits in 5 shots at the max distance, 2.0...

bulletin.accurateshooter.com

Lindsey set the FCSA Cold Bore World Record in August 2021 at 2464yds with a 375CT. And then she won KO2M 2021.




Part of the fun in ELR is knowing you have a high chance of missing the target and yet getting impacts. 100% probability of impact is only interesting in the military and law enforcement. Outside of that, the interesting story is “you’re likely to miss but it’s far more interesting when you don’t.”

There’s the practical side and then there’s the “how far can we push it.” The latter is what ELR means to me.

Take PRS for example. Before that it was interesting to shoot a short action cartridge to 1000yds. Then it became uninteresting. Now we shoot standing off a barricade at 1000yds because it’s more fun. The limits keep getting pushed. The only interesting story to me is pushing the limits to make the once thought impossible, possible.

Not suggesting limits shouldn't be pushed and people can't have fun but I come from a military background and finding out how many shots it takes to hit my target doesn't really interest me. I would rather understand the limits of what I'm using, become proficient at it and hit my target as much as possible. Everyone has their own set of expectations.

 

[JB.IC]

Not suggesting limits shouldn't be pushed and people can't have fun but I come from a military background and finding out how many shots it takes to hit my target doesn't really interest me. I would rather understand the limits of what I'm using, become proficient at it and hit my target as much as possible. Everyone has their own set of expectations.

Yes as a Mission Commander, I understand this. You’re not telling me something I don’t already know.

I’ll say it again, 100% probability of impact is only interesting in the military and law enforcement.

The amount of caveats you have to use on the internet is exhausting

 

[Matches Malone]

Yes as a Mission Commander, I understand this. You’re not telling me something I don’t already know.

I’ll say it again, 100% probability of impact is only interesting in the military and law enforcement.

The amount of caveats you have to use on the internet is exhausting

Wtf is a mission commander? Were you a naval commander at the Army’s mission command? (Weirder things have happened.)

 

[JB.IC]

Wtf is a mission commander? Where you a naval commander at the Army’s mission command? (Weirder things have happened.)

I’m the guy that gets yelled at when someone fucks up on the op. Yes it’s inner service stuff but I’m not getting into that. I’m closing that door because of a knee injury.

 

[HousePlant]

The answer is 308 Winchester. #becooluse308

/thread

 

[Steel head]

Wtf is a mission commander? Were you a naval commander at the Army’s mission command? (Weirder things have happened.)

Mom upstairs when she tells me to shut up because I’m making too much noise
Means I need to go stealth mode.

 

[JB.IC]

Mom upstairs when she tells me to shut up because I’m making too much noise
Means I need to go stealth mode.

y’all hear him in the radio? Calling for a casevac? STFU and write down the 9L

 

[GIXXER2000]

For me if you can't hit the target once in five shots in good conditions then you maybe over shooting your gun or ability. If it windy then all bets are off. I don't think lobing 50 rounds at a 6x5 sheet of steel 5000 yards and getting 1 hit proves anything. Law of averages says put enough rounds down range and eventually you're going to get a hit. Just my 2 cents worth.

 

[BCX]

The answer is 308 Winchester. #becooluse308

/thread

I think this members account has been hacked? As much as I miss shooting the good old 308 it doesn’t belong in a ELR conversation.

 

[JB.IC]

For MIL/LE:
The easy button is to use Applied Ballistics WEZ with the cartridge’s inputs. Then input the parameters such as target size, distance, wind reading abilities, etc. in the WEZ tab. Then change the distance until you get 100% hit percentage.

 

[secondofangle2]

Applied ballistics models 338lm @ 1500m first shot hit prob @ ~ 50% vs std IPSC (loosely 1moa/ 1in per 100 yd) in below white paper.

Perhaps 2000 yd is plausibly the limit?

Source link:

https://appliedballisticsllc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Weapon-Employment-Zone-Analysis-of-the-Optimized-300-Winchester-Magnum-vs-338-Lapua-Magnum-With-Various-Ammunition-Types.pdf

Yes, but that cherry-picks the "high confidence" environment and the crux of that is that your wind deflection, over the entire bullet flight has to be +/- 1% - that is entirely unrealistic unless the wind is non-existent or doesn't vary from moment to moment; and for first shot hits does not vary along the bullet path in ways you cannot possibly predict. If you use the medium confidence estimate which still assumes a +/- 2.5 MPH wind call, the hit percentage drops to 15-17%. That is more representative of my experience where I shoot, where I either suck at the wind calls, or the wind is highly variable, or both.

OP, don't ask guys what they think their hit percentages are. Go out and video yourself or them. Otherwise you're going to get rampant cherry-picking and selective memories and flat out fantasies. Go and look at the results of KO2M - teams with dedicated rifles, best equipment - what are their hit percentages recorded on match day at 2500 yards and beyond? That is the data you seek - unbiased, non-cherry-picked data - and it's right there for you.

 

[ma smith]

Yes, but that cherry-picks the "high confidence" environment and the crux of that is that your wind deflection, over the entire bullet flight has to be +/- 1% - that is entirely unrealistic unless the wind is non-existent or doesn't vary from moment to moment; and for first shot hits does not vary along the bullet path in ways you cannot possibly predict. If you use the medium confidence estimate which still assumes a +/- 2.5 MPH wind call, the hit percentage drops to 15-17%. That is more representative of my experience where I shoot, where I either suck at the wind calls, or the wind is highly variable, or both.

OP, don't ask guys what they think their hit percentages are. Go out and video yourself or them. Otherwise you're going to get rampant cherry-picking and selective memories and flat out fantasies. Go and look at the results of KO2M - teams with dedicated rifles, best equipment - what are their hit percentages recorded on match day at 2500 yards and beyond? That is the data you seek - unbiased, non-cherry-picked data - and it's right there for you.

The AB analysis is inclusive of ther assumtions, but of course if you read it....the 1500m is upper limit.

The lower grade AB assumptions show a limit @ 1100m for 50% first round hit probsbility

The point of mentioning 1.5 - 2k as a 'theoretical' ceiling is of course in case of specialist gear and the most benign conditions, spotters, sighters, and luck...you might possibly have a day that good, so some data might possibly might not be BS.

But a single datapoint wouldn't be a reliable estimator. Especially of "first round" hit probability.

 

[bbhank]

So let's dive right in. What are the hit percentages during these matches? Surely there must be plenty of data out there.

All of the scores are online for KO2M. I think Lindsay Paul, 2021 winner, hit 14 of 28 shots at ranges between 1572 and 3520

 

[secondofangle2]

All of the scores are online for KO2M. I think Lindsay Paul, 2021 winner, hit 14 of 28 shots at ranges between 1572 and 3520

But that's unrealistic. Not only is it cherry-picking the winner for consideration, and excluding all those losers below her (joking), but I doubt she will win year after year. There will be what's called in statistics "regression to the mean".

Guys if you want a realistic sample, you need a sample, not something cherry-picked after the results are in. Using the whole lot of shooters with all their shots at KO2M is a realistic sample of what can be done by top shooters/teams with top equipment on that particular day in that particular location.

 

[bbhank]

But that's unrealistic. Not only is it cherry-picking the winner for consideration, and excluding all those losers below her (joking), but I doubt she will win year after year. There will be what's called in statistics "regression to the mean".

Guys if you want a realistic sample, you need a sample, not something cherry-picked after the results are in. Using the whole lot of shooters with all their shots at KO2M is a realistic sample of what can be done by top shooters/teams with top equipment on that particular day in that particular location.

I agree.

 

[secondofangle2]

If you go to the 2018 KO2M and look only at the top 16 competitors (cherry-picked) https://bulletin.accurateshooter.com/tag/paul-phillips/

Only 2 of those 16 got a cold bore shot at 1572 and that's on a 24x37" rectangle which is a 1.5x2.3 MOA target, not 1 MOA.

At 1692 yards, these 16 top competitors (ignoring all the rest) had a hit percentage of 63% on a target sized 24x37. 1 MOA at that distance is just shy of 18" so that target is 1.33x2.05 MOA not 1 MOA.

At 2097 yards, the hit percentage of the top 16 competitors was 67% at a target that is 30x37". at that distance, 1 MOA is 22" so that target is 1.36x 1.68 MOA.

My interpretation, like ma smith's, is that 2000 yards is about the reasonable maximum with a 1 MOA target, since a cherry-picked selection of only the top placers at KO2M 2018 has a hit rate in the 65% range on a target significantly larger than 1MOA. Furthermore, their cold bore hit percentage is in the toilet at even 1572.

If somebody sends me an xls file of the results, I'll tabulate hit percentages and target sizes for the whole pool of competitors.

 

[nick338]

If you go to the 2018 KO2M and look only at the top 16 competitors (cherry-picked) https://bulletin.accurateshooter.com/tag/paul-phillips/

Only 2 of those 16 got a cold bore shot at 1572 and that's on a 24x37" rectangle which is a 1.5x2.3 MOA target, not 1 MOA.

At 1692 yards, these 16 top competitors (ignoring all the rest) had a hit percentage of 63% on a target sized 24x37. 1 MOA at that distance is just shy of 18" so that target is 1.33x2.05 MOA not 1 MOA.

At 2097 yards, the hit percentage of the top 16 competitors was 67% at a target that is 30x37". at that distance, 1 MOA is 22" so that target is 1.36x 1.68 MOA.

My interpretation, like ma smith's, is that 2000 yards is about the reasonable maximum with a 1 MOA target, since a cherry-picked selection of only the top placers at KO2M 2018 has a hit rate in the 65% range on a target significantly larger than 1MOA. Furthermore, their cold bore hit percentage is in the toilet at even 1572.

If somebody sends me an xls file of the results, I'll tabulate hit percentages and target sizes for the whole pool of competitors.

And it appears that these matches are shot with 375 CT and larger on 30-40lb rifles which furthers my belief that the train starts to come off the rails for us little guys with 300 Norma's, Lapua's, etc around 1500 yards, taking into consideration less than perfect conditions.

 

[canezach]

I can hit a 24" target at 100 yds most days....
If the sun's not in my eyes!

*IF you do your part*

 

[MadDuner]

*IF you do your part*

Always a big IF!

 

[wildcats]

I can hit a 24" target at 100 yds most days....
If the sun's not in my eyes!

Myself included,but then again that's with bad eye sight and a SKS with open sights.

 

[BCX]

And it appears that these matches are shot with 375 CT and larger on 30-40lb rifles which furthers my belief that the train starts to come off the rails for us little guys with 300 Norma's, Lapua's, etc around 1500 yards, taking into consideration less than perfect conditions.

I believe the winners have been w the 375 CT and larger w heavy builds. I remember seeing a 338 cal ( 338 LM AI or 338 XC) make it to the top 6 w a sub 26lb rifle.

 

[Steel head]

If you go to the 2018 KO2M and look only at the top 16 competitors (cherry-picked) https://bulletin.accurateshooter.com/tag/paul-phillips/

Only 2 of those 16 got a cold bore shot at 1572 and that's on a 24x37" rectangle which is a 1.5x2.3 MOA target, not 1 MOA.

At 1692 yards, these 16 top competitors (ignoring all the rest) had a hit percentage of 63% on a target sized 24x37. 1 MOA at that distance is just shy of 18" so that target is 1.33x2.05 MOA not 1 MOA.

At 2097 yards, the hit percentage of the top 16 competitors was 67% at a target that is 30x37". at that distance, 1 MOA is 22" so that target is 1.36x 1.68 MOA.

My interpretation, like ma smith's, is that 2000 yards is about the reasonable maximum with a 1 MOA target, since a cherry-picked selection of only the top placers at KO2M 2018 has a hit rate in the 65% range on a target significantly larger than 1MOA. Furthermore, their cold bore hit percentage is in the toilet at even 1572.

If somebody sends me an xls file of the results, I'll tabulate hit percentages and target sizes for the whole pool of competitors.

I agree

 

[BCX]

Litz took 2nd place in 2017 shooting a 338 Edge w 300 Berger. Or was it Steel head w his 338 Edge?

 

[Steel head]

Litz took 2nd place in 2017 shooting a 338 Edge w 300 Berger. Or was it Steel head w his 338 Edge?

So probably 2850-2920 with the 300, hardly impressive ballistics compared to solids bigger 375, and bigger.

 

[secondofangle2]

There seems to be this sense that it insults a caliber to say that it is not ELR capable. It need not be seen that way. It is that some calibers are far better suited than others and if you want a reasonable hit percentage you should be shooting them not smaller calibers that occasionally connect. Some call that “proof of concept” I call it “luck and a waste of ammo”

On another thread a little ways down there’s a guy hitting at 1 mile w 300 AAC BLK. That doesn’t make 300 BLK an ELR cartridge. Litz’s 2017 feat is more realistic but OTOH it’s more or less an isolated circumstance

 

[Steel head]

There seems to be this sense that it insults a caliber to say that it is not ELR capable. It need not be seen that way. It is that some calibers are far better suited than others and if you want a reasonable hit percentage you should be shooting them not smaller calibers that occasionally connect. Some call that “proof of concept” I call it “luck and a waste of ammo”

On another thread a little ways down there’s a guy hitting at 1 mile w 300 AAC BLK. That doesn’t make 300 BLK an ELR cartridge. Litz’s 2017 feat is more realistic but OTOH it’s more or less an isolated circumstance

As long as you’re having fun and/or learning who cares what your shooting or how far.

 

[nick338]

As long as you’re having fun and/or learning who cares what your shooting or how far.

I think the point he is trying to make is more or less when taking the fun out of it, there are people that get snobbish because they made hits at a mile with their 6.5 Creedmoor or 6 XC and often categorize it as a 1 mile cartridge.

 

[Steel head]

I think the point he is trying to make is more or less when taking the fun out of it, there are people that get snobbish because they made hits at a mile with their 6.5 Creedmoor or 6 XC and often categorize it as a 1 mile cartridge.

I get that
I wouldn’t call it snobbish, more like delusional.
Snobbish is more the other spectrum saying don’t bother unless your shooting a 375 or bigger.

6.5CM and 6XC
Mile cartridge? No
Fun at a mile? Yes

 

[secondofangle2]

My 223 is a lot of fun with a 75 ELD at 1100 2 MOA plate. As long as there isn't any variability to the wind.

 

[Baron23]

100% probability of impact is only interesting in the military and law enforcement.

Ah....don't hunt much?

 

[JB.IC]

Ah....don't hunt much?

The depression of waiting 7 years to get an elk tag and missing the elk can unalive a man. I should have included every possible situation in that post.


Also, I’d like to apologize to OP for coming off like a dick head in my earlier post. I swear I thought he was someone else and then I re-read his username after the fact and realized it was the wrong guy. My bad.

 

[Baron23]

The depression of waiting 7 years to get an elk tag and missing the elk can unalive a man.

hahaha...I imagine so! LOL

 

[nick338]

The depression of waiting 7 years to get an elk tag and missing the elk can unalive a man. I should have included every possible situation in that post.


Also, I’d like to apologize to OP for coming off like a dick head in my earlier post. I swear I thought he was someone else and then I re-read his username after the fact and realized it was the wrong guy. My bad.

Shit happens. I like to pick my battles. I just wish I was better at picking them