Advanced Marksmanship expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

S

silvery37

Private
Minuteman
Apr 20, 2006
23
0
Austin, TX
#1
At what range are military snipers or even a good shooter expected to be able to make a first round ccbs on a human sized target under field conditions?

As I have become interested and more experienced in long range shooting I have gained an appreciation for how difficult it really is. I have learned that all my life Hollywood has lied to me and snipers don’t always hit with their first shot. From what I have read the distance for a first round hit seems to be around 600 yards but I am interested to hear what those with experience have to say.
 
#2
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

I've personally witnessed a member of this site shoot a CCB shot during a competition at 600 yards that was 3/4 of an inch from dead center of the X on the target. I've also seen the same member shoot a brick with his CCB shot at ~750yds. Just all depends.
 
#3
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

i saw reg. at QSC shoot the 1k yard line with his 7WSM, switching to a different than the load he used from the 900 yd. line. Cut the "X" into quarters... it was truly hard to beleive when i saw his spotter, but looking at the target, im a baleiver! lol.
 
#4
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

I know there are guys that can make some amazing shots at long distance. I am looking for what a well trained person with a rifle is expected to be able to do.
 
#5
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

1st round hits in a combat situation arent really always expected, they are hoped for but not always acheived... my guess would be around 700-800yds. 1k is possible with enough knowlege of the rifle, drop dope, and environmental conditions.
 
#6
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

As I sit here polishin my trophy a though occurs to me-

It might be best to let those who have trained n qualified as a military sniper respond rather than...

"once, while at band camp, I saw a guy..."

Justa thought...

 
#8
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

mike, he's not referring to the Federales . . . to the U.S. military.
wink.gif
 
#10
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

Critter-
Si, I know its de 'Merjican Army. I was ennn the 'Merijican Army, not de federales.

Kevin-
Is the knight product a sniper rifle or a marksman rifle? Interstin report, wonder how other systems shake out?
 
#11
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

kmussack that seems a little more realistic. About 50% percent hits at 500 yards for a military sniper. I would wager that most military snipers get much less practice and experience than they would like.
 
#13
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

In certain military cells of professional snipers, where all they do is practice the art and science of sniping, the first round hit is not as important as a shooter, as being able to make an immediate second round hit in under 5 seconds.

they give much more weight to the skill of being able to correct your own shot and follow it up with a hit... again, in under 5 seconds from the first shot.
 
#14
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

The article misses two big factors. The first is follow up shots. Although their math may be technically correct for a first shot a follow up shot can eliminate many errors that occurred on the first shot. For example the barometric pressure and temp may have changed. This could cause the first shot to drop a couple feet low. A good spotter will make the call and all subsequent shots should have the correct elevation because those environmental factors will not change between shots. From then on the biggest factor will be the wind. The second problem is that it appears they assume ballistic calculators are 100% correct. They do not show any error when the correct environmental conditions are entered. As I have painfully found out computer generated ballistic calculations are really only approximations.

It still has some good information and it is neat to see actual numbers put on the different types of error that happen while shooting.
 
#15
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

One shot and one kill from 900 on in are not only achieved they are expected. If you are not able to make the shot many times you will not get the second chance. So to answer your question it is yes and I have seen it done over and over and over again.

Wwe are not talking about some target practice either, I am talking about day, dawn, night, cold, warm, hot some wind or no wind.
 
#16
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

Is it just me, or does this seem to be some real crappy #'s..................
And I bet these are not battle field figures.

I would expect it to be far better, if it's just a range test.
Then again a Knights, likely is a moa at best w/ M118LR.( or any other quality round).

Also surprising they used a semi??.
Sounds like a DMR stick.


Likely it's the Knight rifles, even a PSS in ,308 is capapble of making smiley face head shots at will from 500yds, easily in decent conditions.

Dial 11-12 moa Up, and proceed.
 
#17
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

I've discussed this before with military snipers and sniper instructors. The rule of thumb or standard is that a trained military sniper should be able to make a first round hit at 600 meters on the first shot.

This is day in and day out in "NORMAL" field conditions not counting a strong wind or a poor shooting position. Anything past 600m the first round hit starts to drop greatly. This is pretty much the general consinces of the guys I shot with and talked to. Hope this helps!!

SFOD18fox,
Not to start an argument but I don't know where your getting your facts but first round hits @ 900m or yards is "NOT" expected nor does it happen on a regular basis.

Not saying you can't do it or it hasn't been done but it is not a "Standard" to be expected nor achieved by everyone.

Its like these guys bragging about shooting prairie dogs at 1000yds. They won't tell you it was luck or that they shot out a barrel trying to make a hit on one. But then when they say I shot one at a 1000yds it sounds good then becomes fact. Just my thoughts on it anyway.
 
#18
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> One shot and one kill from 900 on in are not only achieved they are expected. If you are not able to make the shot many times you will not get the second chance. So to answer your question it is yes and I have seen it done over and over and over again.
</div></div>


Riiiighht! I would love to see you do that in different AOs - over and over and over again.
grin.gif



Unless, maybe, you're always shooting at the same shooting range, the wind and temperature is always the same, etc...

Oh wait...you actually said:

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Wwe are not talking about some target practice either, I am talking about day, dawn, night, cold, warm, hot some wind or no wind. </div></div>

That's quite funny
smile.gif


Me think...NOT!

With 10 posts, a hobby of "leader sniper special ops" and such fantastic claims, with all due respect, I'm already in serious troll alert mode...


 
#19
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

Raptor, if SFOD18F is what he claims, he is getting his facts from personal experiences. However, I don't know if he is legit or what his level of SOTIC training is.
As you probably know, DF, standards on teams vary for what a sniper needs to be able to do. No one I know has ever been required to make a 900m (not yd) cold bore shot, but I can't say other teams don't have that standard.
Justin
 
#20
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

Justin, this is not directed to you but...

Personal experience...Dream on... seriously. It's not a standard, it's more like a "wish".

Seriously, show me a team that can hit a 900 meters cold bore all the time in any condition. The top competitors in the tactical precision field can't even achieve that. At TacPro 2-3 years ago, if I recall only 3 people were able to have a one shot - one hit at 900 yards out of 45 and I was out of them. I can assure you, I can't do that all the time.

Look at KMussack posting above, it's more reflective to the truth - even in competition.

But hey, I'm game - would love to see that team in action in a match so I can have some personal experience too
smile.gif
- not about to happen soon though.

So based on experience - I still think...NOT!


 
#21
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

Desert Frog, I agree with you. I throw BS flag on that one. I have a bit of experience at this and know what a sniper can do and what he can not.

SFOD18F - What team are you on? I would love to drop by and observe training. Or you can drop by range 37 and show me.

KMussack, what have you been up to lately?
smile.gif
 
#22
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

Hola Rick!

Nice to see some authoritative answer here
smile.gif


What do you think about the percentages in the post K.Mussack posted? Perhaps we should make a difference like "ideal-medium-bad conditions"?

100 yards = 1.00
200 yards = 1.00
300 yards = 0.93
400 yards = 0.69
500 yards = 0.46
600 yards = 0.27
700 yards = 0.15
800 yards = 0.08
900 yards = 0.05

TIA

Ruben
 
#23
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

I believe they were based on what is considered the "expected accuracy" of the SR25. This is for planning purposes and does not necessarily relect what can be done by an individual sniper with his SR that may be more accurate then the "average SR".

We gave a list to the Army on what we would expect as a first round hit probablity based on ranges, M24, and 7 - 10 mph winds. They were a bit better then what Kevin has, but they are from the same place.

 
#24
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

From military sniper school/battle field gathered information I've seen in the past after 600 meters, the expected first round hit percentage goes down dramatically. On an E silhouette target I saw these precentages of first round expected hits in battle field conditions/different country sniper schools:

100 meters through 600 meters - 90%
700 meters - 80%
800 meters - 70%
900 meters - 60%
 
#25
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

I would expect those under ideal conditions. Once winds become varible the bullet gets pushed around alot. Another factor would be round fired. The .338 Lapua will give a better first round hit probablity then the 7.62 M118LR. The LR will move about 11 inches for 1 mph wind at 900 meters. The .300 Win Mag, 190 gr A191, will move about 8 - 9 inches and the .338, 250 gr will move about 6 inches. That is a tough wind call.
grin.gif
 
#26
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

I think there can be a general, statistically based answer to this question, but I also believe such data breaks down when extended to the individual case.

The criteria determine the outcomes. One can stack a survey to render any desired outcome.

Personally, I put equal faith in both Kevin's and LowLight's viewpoints.

I hope this topic rebounds from its current direction, as such contention and conjecture are hardly helpful.

Greg
 
#27
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

Greg - sorry if I offended. I just hate to see someone put out some forms of info. Especially when he is representing himself as an expert. I shall refrain from further comment.

Kevin - Yes, saw the accident on TV, but only the final moments, did not see which maneuver he was attempting. Catch you later, maybe we can link up again for some good conversation.
smile.gif
 
#28
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

Rick, Please continue to comment, don't refrain.

There is an ongoing study on some things related to hits and the methodology is going to be as follows:

a. Highest speed low drag outfit puts forth X number of shooters and the results average will be taken. This eliminates the gun specific guy who does it all on his own and is way better than the rest.

b. The next high speed unit puts forth X number of shooters and the results average will be taken.

c. The third tier will put forth X number of shooters and the results average will be taken.

d. Standard line units will put forth X number of shooters an the results average will be taken.

e. Cooks, Bakers, and Support units will put forth X number of shooters and the results average will be taken.

The results are predictable in that Unit A will have the highest hit probability due to their mission specific training and dedication (and resources allocated) to training. Then Unit B, then Unit C, etc, until we get to the support units.

The individual figures for each group will provide training needs for each group to meet a set criteria.

The average of Units A, B, and C, being who they are will be further averaged to give a cross the board average of special units that give higher priority to training and mission specific results, and the figures will be correspondingly appropriate.

Unit D, all regular units with similar mission specific requirements will have lower results and hit probability based on unit training allowances balanced against other unit duty requirements that require daily attention.

Unit E is being done simply because they have to meet specific requirements to function in combat and have any probability of survivable.

This methodology has been proven in military testing and the results parrallel after action reports with an amazing correlation of correctness. This methodology provides the solid data and mathematics to give a reasonable picture of what is going to happen, given attainable training requirements.

FWIW, the hit results quoted with the KAC rifle were obtained using the above methodolgy and are accurate.
Using proven Sniper weapons systems, the hit results go up, some, but not to the degree many would think.

Any of you guys who want to make the mistake of questioning Longrange1947 are so far out in left field that you would be much better off keeping your mouth shut and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove any doubt the rest of the world had about your being a fool.

If that statement offends any of you, TS, because you obviously don't know who he is, what background he has, or know that he is one of the longest running people involved with this type of stuff related to Sniping, and recognized as such in the professional Sniper community.
 
#29
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

Please don't worry about offending me. This is the Internet, and I can't imagine me taking anything said here seriously enough (on a personal level) to take any serious offense. Been there done that, and it doesn't work. Besides; we can handle it, so keep posting.

This subject has a credibility factor, and anecdotal info and statistical info just don't seem to agree. So what the big deal? There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. We all have our own cherished opinions. Don't think anything said here is going to be universally convincing. Maybe the question is the problem, it has all kinds of issues associated. Like discussions about 'the best' anything, this one probably has no real answer.

Greg
 
#30
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">This subject has a credibility factor, and anecdotal info and statistical info just don't seem to agree. So what the big deal? There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. </div></div>

Statistics are what they are...average.

Well trained individuals can raise above the statistics. If you were to take the top 10 match competitors (Army, Civilian and LEs), you probably would get some different results.

Personally, I like to keep those statistics in mind. It forces me to see a shot at 600 yards and above for what it is: a very challenging shot! And thus I try to pay more attention to the details (wind orientation, etc...).

Last local match at APS (A place to shot)we had to shoot 4 rounds at a 770 yards target. Out of around 12 competitors (and some were experienced), none hit the 770 yard target with the first round. One shooter did 3/4, another 2/4 and the rest was 1/4 or 0. The main reason was a little wind coming up from between hills starting at 500 yards and no flag/mirage to detect it.

Again, I can see how some individuals can really shine and raise way above the statistics. It's not all lies.

But if you make some extraordinary claims on this site, you probably should have the extraordinary proofs in hand (Match results, witnessed scores, etc...).
 
#31
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

If I remember right when I went to the Benning School for Boys sniper school (USAMU-'78) we were expected to do cbs from 300-900 meters (I think we were using meters) with a M21. I believe a 1.5 average was required to graduate, (don't quote me, that was nearky 30 years ago). Anyway that was in a controled, training enviorment and after a period of time you learned the range. I dont believe its realistic to expect consistant CB hits at 900 meters. In police work, a cb head shot up to 300 yards was necessary, and I believe more realistic. If we couldnt do that we had no business carrying a rifle.
 
#32
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

Well finally someone who knows what an M21 is.

One thing to consider is that I can only remember a single instance where one of my snipers got a shot a at stationary target. By stationary, I mean still for more than 5 seconds. On that one occaison the range was about 550 yards and the target was a lump in the bushes which we believed to be part of a man's shoulder and back. After impact, the lump dropped out of sight so I credited my man with a KIA. For all I ever knew he might have shot a dog or even missed but being as we were outnumbered by five to one, we didn't ever go down to find out. Every other shot ever taken while I was present was on a walking or running target. Some people can hit circles on paper pretty regularly but very, very few can make consistent hits on moving targets.

Of course another thing to remember is that I am so senile I can't remember anything anyway.

 
#33
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

M21, a scoped M14 with a snazzy adjustable stock. I had the stock and I had the scope mount, so technically my M1A was a semihemidemi M21. ...or not...

Shot just as good as my M1A, but the stock wasn't any good for use with the irons. I sold it.

Greg
 
#34
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

RickB,
Long time no hear!!! Good to see your still kicking!!Hope all is well with you and yours.

Another thing you guys need to remember when talking first round hits (IF on a human target) the human body is usually in some type of constant motion. Its not what you would call a stationary target. So you need to take that into consideration too.
 
#36
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: SFOD18fox</div><div class="ubbcode-body">One shot and one kill from 900 on in are not only achieved they are expected. If you are not able to make the shot many times you will not get the second chance. So to answer your question it is yes and I have seen it done over and over and over again.

Wwe are not talking about some target practice either, I am talking about day, dawn, night, cold, warm, hot some wind or no wind. </div></div>

What part of the southeast US are you in?
 
#37
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: caver101</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

What part of the southeast US are you in? </div></div>

Seems both Ozark Hunter and SFOD18fox were posting from the same computer in Missouri.

One claims to be a retired Lt Col, the other, the son, claims, according to dad, to be a Delta Operator, however they both used the same email and computer. SFOD, a 24 yr old Army Msgt.

Oh, and Message1 was the same guy as well....
 
#38
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Buffalobob</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Well finally someone who knows what an M21 is.
</div></div>


Damn I am old, the newest stuff we had were XM21's
 
#39
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round h

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Lowlight</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: caver101</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

What part of the southeast US are you in? </div></div>

Seems both Ozark Hunter and SFOD18fox were posting from the same computer in Missouri.

One claims to be a retired Lt Col, the other, the son, claims, according to dad, to be a Delta Operator, however they both used the same email and computer. SFOD, a 24 yr old Army Msgt.

Oh, and Message1 was the same guy as well.... </div></div>

And this is the same dickhead who said his son was stationed at Camp Robinson and they had no Sniper School there for the National Guard. And who THEN said his son taught there and he didnt know it.
So now we have a SFOD-D, 24 year old Army Master Sergeant who was stationed at a National Guard base and who didn't know there was a Sniper School there, but who taught at it. SFOD-D in the guard?
 
#41
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

Well, this subject started out interesting. I have often wondered how good professional shooters and their rifles can shoot. I shoot a KMW built 308 so surely my rifle is at least comparable, but I have had no training whatsoever. With my rifle I'm pretty sure I can make a hit on a torso target at 900 yds 75% of the time, with practice shots and conditions staying the same. The problem is that a professional has his rifle zeroed at x degrees F., x% humidity, at x bar. pressure and your shooting at 2500ft above sealevel. Now you deploy and everything has changed dramatically, now what do you do? In order to answer some of my own issues I bought a Kestrel weather unit. It explained some of my issues such as why my rifle zeroed one week is 2" off the next week at same distance. I think pressure and humidity factor as much as temp. Now you factor I reload to basically benchrest standards some of my rds are too tight for a true tactical situation but my targets never shoot back. Someday I will go shoot with someone who can explain why bullets do certain things one day and different the next. I have wondered a lot about how a sniper or operator can take a rifle out of a case that might have traveled half way around the world and make the shot when it counts. just my ramblings krw
 
#42
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

The smart operator takes his rifle out of the case and checks his zero, regardless if he travels around the world or across the state. however if you don't have the ability to check your zero, you should at least know the basic effects of how and why your rifle will change so you can adjust for this. the best shooters work on shaving as many errors as the shooter can control. this means understanding temp, barometric pressure, altitude, all these things. another comment on the above statement, conditions are never the same, unless you shoot in a vacuum. wind is the great equalizer, which is why the number of first round hits tend to drop over distance. if we all shot in that vacuum, with modern weapons, there is very little reason why 100% hits can't be trained in at 1000 yards, unfortunately we don't have 1000 yard vacuums.
 
#44
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

Lowlight,
Nice catch!! On those kind of posts you want to come right out an say, "Son, your full of S*^# to make a statement like that!!" But then I like your sight and don't want to get tossed off of it for starting a pie fight.(HA)
 
#45
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

I would think that the basic baseline deriviatives could be weighted by a factor like or similar to relative drift (and drop). Maybe something proportional to Time of Flight and invesersely proportional to BC.
 
#46
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

Kevin,

I will download the report and read it tonight, looks to be very interesting.

I am by no means an expert, only a hobbyist of the craft. I have yet to have a cold first round hit at 1k. Starting closer then extending the distance farther out and finally tagging the target on your first shot at 1k is not a first round hit. Sorry, but that is just the way it is.

The numbers you posted from the report seem very reasonable. If most of us honestly rate our skills, we would find the numbers hold close for us also.

You going to be at the Bash, hope to visit again soon.

Roy
 
#48
Re: expectations of military snipers(first round hits)

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: kmussack</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Greg,
Download and read the report.
You'd enjoy it. </div></div>

I would be interested in reading the report but can't figure out what to click to down load it.

HELP
 
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