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Florence Looms
- Thread starter Tucker301
- Start date
I have been waiting on somebody to say "I would hit that"!
We may be in a spot of trouble. Our river is already headed towards flood stage. These are remnants of the last storm.
Florence will ad a great deal to this.
Will be kayaking up in the trees.
Gage height, feet
Most recent instantaneous value: 9.12 09-10-2018 17:45 EST
Florence will ad a great deal to this.
Will be kayaking up in the trees.
Gage height, feet
Most recent instantaneous value: 9.12 09-10-2018 17:45 EST
^^^ Well, you could try plowing it out of the way?
Cheers,
Sirhr
Cheers,
Sirhr
Stay safe my east carolinas and va friends... I remember Hugo. My first hurricane. Thought it would be all hurricane parties and fun and stuff. It was not. I took them really seriously after that.
Be prepared... Hope You all come through it with your selves and homes intact!
Sirhr
Be prepared... Hope You all come through it with your selves and homes intact!
Sirhr
Too funny. I was at sea, coming back from Rosy Roads, PR (Blue/green workups) when Hugo was gearing up (we left early because of Hugo actually). Hugo absolutely pounded Charleston and tore up quite a bit of Topsail beach (which I think isn't there anymore after the last big hurricane that hit "the 'ville".
Stay safe folks.
Welp, @Tucker301 started the thread with "will she or won't she?" I'd say that question has been answered, now it's just a matter of who is taking it on the chin and which surrounding area is getting bitch slapped.
This thing is no fucking joke, and I haven't heard of any existing conditions like upper level winds or unfavorable pressure or whatnot that is keeping it from strengthening further. She has a lot of time and open water to max out. In fact, the high pressure to the north that's been steering it is expected to dissipate as Flo reaches land, allowing her to stall on the coast. A report I watched this morning said 40 inches of rain was possible if it hangs up during the landfall transition.
A LOT of the East Coast could end up in a jam on this one, whether they get the initial effects of the storm or not.
This thing is no fucking joke, and I haven't heard of any existing conditions like upper level winds or unfavorable pressure or whatnot that is keeping it from strengthening further. She has a lot of time and open water to max out. In fact, the high pressure to the north that's been steering it is expected to dissipate as Flo reaches land, allowing her to stall on the coast. A report I watched this morning said 40 inches of rain was possible if it hangs up during the landfall transition.
A LOT of the East Coast could end up in a jam on this one, whether they get the initial effects of the storm or not.
Got a buddy coming in from Camp Lejeune tonight. USMC didn't let them evac until this morning. He's going to be stuck in traffic with three large dogs and two small kids for a long time today until he gets here, I'm afraid.
I live in central NC, but right up against the SC line. Between my Dad and I we have 8 chicken barns. Basically 20+ acres of suspended sheet metal held up by 4x4 posts. If this thing is gonna sit and swirl over top of us like it's showing now, I'm out of a job Monday, except for picking up 40,000 half rotten chickens. Damn...
Gotta deep fryer? People going to need to eat after this thing moves out...might as well do something with all the dead birds...
Sometimes he refers to it as Pumphandle, and sometimes Hooterville. I've never been there, but I get the idea that it's one of those "Twin Cities" metropolitan areas: You know, "Pumphandle/Hooterville, IA", like "Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN.
Yeah. It's pretty much going to wring itself out over NC and VA. Still looking at 10 inches or more of rain at my place.
Sometimes he refers to it as Pumphandle, and sometimes Hooterville. I've never been there, but I get the idea that it's one of those "Twin Cities" metropolitan areas: You know, "Pumphandle/Hooterville, IA", like "Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN.
Pumphandle is a quiet suburb of Hooterville
.You fellas hang tough out east. Sounds like hell is comin' to breakfast.
Certainly not our place, the garden isn't weedy enough.
Pond is gonna be full.
I hope so. It's been a while.
I'm beginning to think I have a leak somewhere. Going to check it closer this winter when I can survey behind the dam without fear of being stung, bitten, or attacked by whatever is living in that jungle.
A new Hide Member who is overseas and can't post online from his current location sent me this and asked me to post it on his behalf.
His handle is MK20 and here is what he asked me to post for him:
"I used to do weather forcasting in my previous job, and we would forecast internally for hurricanes a lot since we did a bunch of training in Florida.
The best website hurricane wise is tropicaltidbits.com. This guy will give you a much more nuanced and specific forecast than the news will. When planning your moves you need the best info possible and this website is what we used to use for real world forecasting stateside. He also has all of the models used by the National Hurricane Center if you care to really nerd out.
The general rules for hurricane forecasting that we used to play by were as follows:
1 day out: 90-100% accurate forecast for hurricane movement
2 days out: 75% accurate forecast for hurricane movement
3 days out: 30-40% accurate forecast for hurricane movement
>3 days out: SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess)
We used these rules as a GENERAL Guideline for how much to trust the forecasts we would see on the news. What these rules boil down to in real life is that you don't know where the storm will actually hit until it is too late to do something about it. This is why early preparation (and if necessary, evacuation) is key even if you THINK you won't need it.
What kills most people is not winds but the storm surge and flooding. The worst storm surge, flooding, and weather will normally be located in the right front quadrant of the hurricane when viewed in relation to its line of movement. With Florence this means that the northwest quarter of the storm in relation to the eye is most likely to be the worst. This can change if the storm direction changes. NOTE that the "worst" effects are usually in the right front quadrant, but "normal" effects can still ruin your day. Plan accordingly.
If you pray, pray that the storm hits cool water and encounters wind shear (different wind directions narrowly stacked vertically) as these things will kill the storm quickly.
At this point I would prepare for the worst just to be safe. (And no, AJ, buying more ammo won't help. Well, it is a good excuse to use on the wife, so...)
I hope you fellow hide members will use the above to better inform your own personal decision making.
Disclaimer: I am not "Authorized" to forecast for hurricanes. Only the National Hurricane Center is and you should follow all their directions. This info is posted for your Situational Awareness only.
MK 20
His handle is MK20 and here is what he asked me to post for him:
"I used to do weather forcasting in my previous job, and we would forecast internally for hurricanes a lot since we did a bunch of training in Florida.
The best website hurricane wise is tropicaltidbits.com. This guy will give you a much more nuanced and specific forecast than the news will. When planning your moves you need the best info possible and this website is what we used to use for real world forecasting stateside. He also has all of the models used by the National Hurricane Center if you care to really nerd out.
The general rules for hurricane forecasting that we used to play by were as follows:
1 day out: 90-100% accurate forecast for hurricane movement
2 days out: 75% accurate forecast for hurricane movement
3 days out: 30-40% accurate forecast for hurricane movement
>3 days out: SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess)
We used these rules as a GENERAL Guideline for how much to trust the forecasts we would see on the news. What these rules boil down to in real life is that you don't know where the storm will actually hit until it is too late to do something about it. This is why early preparation (and if necessary, evacuation) is key even if you THINK you won't need it.
What kills most people is not winds but the storm surge and flooding. The worst storm surge, flooding, and weather will normally be located in the right front quadrant of the hurricane when viewed in relation to its line of movement. With Florence this means that the northwest quarter of the storm in relation to the eye is most likely to be the worst. This can change if the storm direction changes. NOTE that the "worst" effects are usually in the right front quadrant, but "normal" effects can still ruin your day. Plan accordingly.
If you pray, pray that the storm hits cool water and encounters wind shear (different wind directions narrowly stacked vertically) as these things will kill the storm quickly.
At this point I would prepare for the worst just to be safe. (And no, AJ, buying more ammo won't help. Well, it is a good excuse to use on the wife, so...)
I hope you fellow hide members will use the above to better inform your own personal decision making.
Disclaimer: I am not "Authorized" to forecast for hurricanes. Only the National Hurricane Center is and you should follow all their directions. This info is posted for your Situational Awareness only.
MK 20
You get 12” of rain from this storm, you probably won’t need to guess where the leak is
Thanks MK 20 and Sirh for posting. By the 2 forecasts shown on Tropical Tidbits it looks like we here in Va might get a break. Sure hope so. The ground is already saturated. 15" more will be a massive fuck up.
My pond is down 18" this year. No leak. Just a super hot summer here.. and no rain. The spring that feeds it dried up. And the surface evaporation is about an inch a week during hot summer. Any normal summer, the spring and the rainfall keep it in stasis. This year... it's appalling!
But I suspect that if this storm comes North... we'll see a full pond here at Schloss Nitrocellulose soon.
The bright side is that the grapes loved it! Nothing like a dry summer!
Cheers,
Sirhr
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