For those worried about inflation...

E

EventHorizon

Sergeant
Full Member
Minuteman
Oct 31, 2009
425
10
NC
#1
don't be!

it costs you money to give the bank money....!

As I've been saying, we're on the verge of a major stock market crash (heading for 6K on the DOW I reckon) and with that comes deflation. Rising dollar, no credit, layoffs, belt tightening - think 2008.

Gold might be a good play but I'd get the ETF, not the stocks. Bullion is for the paranoid (EOTWAWKI) or the mega rich (contacts to sell it at good prices and storage costs). The retard on main street will not give you a good price and nor will Glenn Beck help you out.

Cash is king guys, make no mistake. Protect yourselves, get rid of debt because the cost of that debt will rise as the value of the dollar rises with it.

Good luck to all.
 
#2
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">don't be!

it costs you money to give the bank money....!

As I've been saying, we're on the verge of a major stock market crash (heading for 6K on the DOW I reckon) and with that comes deflation. Rising dollar, no credit, layoffs, belt tightening - think 2008.

Gold might be a good play but I'd get the ETF, not the stocks. Bullion is for the paranoid (EOTWAWKI) or the mega rich (contacts to sell it at good prices and storage costs). The retard on main street will not give you a good price and nor will Glenn Beck help you out.

Cash is king guys, make no mistake. Protect yourselves, get rid of debt because the cost of that debt will rise as the value of the dollar rises with it.

Good luck to all. </div></div>

Unfortunately I think your right....its not a matter of IF just a question of WHEN. Sooner or later the market will have to adjust to its REAL value which is a lot less then whats its been artificially proped up to be by massive influx if freshly printed cash. But as I heard on a broadcast last night, the Government doesnt have any arrows left in the quiver.

Thats why the wealthy are buying expensive, cars, art etc.....tangible goods that will have value after the "deflation".

Look at whats going on in Europe....massive protests, with Greece and Ireland in the toilet, Spain and Italy not far from it. The only really stable spot there is Germany, and they cant float the whole continent. It may well get REALLY ugly here for a while...re: the stock crash of the 20's-30's.

It has happened, can happen again, and barring a miracle, probrably will. Not much anyone can do but hold on and ride it out. Id hate to be living in a major city now.

Parking all my millions in a HUGE mason jar.
whistle.gif
 
#3
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> get rid of debt because the cost of that debt will rise as the value of the dollar rises with it.
</div></div>

Not sure about that part... Inflation via QE1,2,3,etc. de-values the dollar via the dumping of so far ~$1.5 trillion in new cash on to the open market (the U.S. had $800billion in cash in circulation in 2008 so now we have a total of well over 2 trillion at the end of QE2), hence it's easier to pay off your debt because your $50,000 car pre-QEx era loan is now equivalent to the $50,000 apple at the store. It's freakishly similar to what happened in Zimbabwe in ~2007.
 
#4
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

Cash is king guys, make no mistake.

</div></div>

Not necessarily advising it but as a general FYI - in Greece there are already soft runs on the banks - people see the end game (study Argentina if you haven't already) and they are withdrawing ALL of their cash from the banks in fear of a 'Banking Holiday'.



Good luck
 
#5
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: High Binder</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> get rid of debt because the cost of that debt will rise as the value of the dollar rises with it.
</div></div>

Not sure about that part... Inflation via QE1,2,3,etc. de-values the dollar via the dumping of so far ~$1.5 trillion in new cash on to the open market (the U.S. had $800billion in cash in circulation in 2008 so now we have a total of well over 2 trillion at the end of QE2), hence it's easier to pay off your debt because your $50,000 car pre-QEx era loan is now equivalent to the $50,000 apple at the store. It's freakishly similar to what happened in Zimbabwe in ~2007. </div></div>

Don't confuse economic theory with economic fact. Very little, if any, of the QE money or bailout money has made it into the broader money supply via extension of credit. Its the credit levels that truly determine inflation and there's not too much of that being thrown around to the common man or small business. You need only look to the financial instruments to see this in effect. The stock market, gold and oil have been going through the roof but the economy, jobs, demand have barely a pulse. The banks are awash with money that they are playing with and that money finds itself in the asset market.

Hence, when the asset markets are showing signs of collapse, every banker is pushing money into 'cash' reserves and the demand for cash is driving up the cost of money - deflation.
 
#6
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mo_Zam_Beek</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

Cash is king guys, make no mistake.

</div></div>

Not necessarily advising it but as a general FYI - in Greece there are already soft runs on the banks - people see the end game (study Argentina if you haven't already) and they are withdrawing ALL of their cash from the banks in fear of a 'Banking Holiday'.

Good luck </div></div>

Argentina and Greece share very little comparison. Greece is in a shared currency. The Euro is on shakey ground. People are taking their money out because they simply don't know what's going to happen. It's uncertainty. Besides, if there's a run on banks then that means people want what they have hold in their hands - cash. There's no hyperinflation in Greece, there's shortage, total lack of productivity and an evaporation of domestic demand. It's not a runaway currency deval.
 
#7
Re: For those worried about inflation...

I understand that. I am merely saying that banking holidays occurred in Argentina as part of a government means of preventing an implosion, and people in Greece are currently moving cash out of the banks.


Good luck
 
#8
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mo_Zam_Beek</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I understand that. I am merely saying that banking holidays occurred in Argentina as part of a government means of preventing an implosion, and people in Greece are currently moving cash out of the banks.


Good luck </div></div>

Diversifcation.
 
#9
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: High Binder</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> get rid of debt because the cost of that debt will rise as the value of the dollar rises with it.
</div></div>

Not sure about that part... Inflation via QE1,2,3,etc. de-values the dollar via the dumping of so far ~$1.5 trillion in new cash on to the open market (the U.S. had $800billion in cash in circulation in 2008 so now we have a total of well over 2 trillion at the end of QE2), hence it's easier to pay off your debt because your $50,000 car pre-QEx era loan is now equivalent to the $50,000 apple at the store. It's freakishly similar to what happened in Zimbabwe in ~2007. </div></div>

Don't confuse economic theory with economic fact. Very little, if any, of the QE money or bailout money has made it into the broader money supply via extension of credit. Its the credit levels that truly determine inflation and there's not too much of that being thrown around to the common man or small business. You need only look to the financial instruments to see this in effect. The stock market, gold and oil have been going through the roof but the economy, jobs, demand have barely a pulse. The banks are awash with money that they are playing with and that money finds itself in the asset market.

Hence, when the asset markets are showing signs of collapse, every banker is pushing money into 'cash' reserves and the demand for cash is driving up the cost of money - deflation. </div></div>

I get what you're saying but I think some of the QE money is actually making it into the general circulation which is why we're seeing the increase in gold/oil prices i.e. the price of gold/oil is going up but not because it's worth more, rather because it takes more dollars to buy the same amount because tha value of the dollar has decreased from all QEx. Now we all know that the banks were given a ton of TARP/QEx cash in order to loan it out and they're still sitting on it but I don't think they're absolutely hording 100% it and are leaking it out thus causing inflation.

Interestingly, I heard that if we were to use the same algorithm that we used in the 70s-80s to calculate inflation rates that we would be around 10% today.. Scary how we let our leaders lie to us..
 
#10
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Goldie</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

diversification. </div></div>

However, diversification only works in your favor when everything in-general trends upwards like buying a SPDR. In a downward trending market you trend down right along with the market. Diversification works great if your a hands-off investor but if you can actively participate in whatever market your invested in than I think you're better off shying away from a simple diversification strategy and hopefully even shorting the market as it falls...
 
#11
Re: For those worried about inflation...

Cash is king guys, make no mistake. Protect yourselves, get rid of debt because the cost of that debt will rise as the value of the dollar rises with it.
smile.gif
O boy thats funny.
 
#12
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mo_Zam_Beek</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I understand that. I am merely saying that banking holidays occurred in Argentina as part of a government means of preventing an implosion, and people in Greece are currently moving cash out of the banks.

Good luck </div></div>

I got you. I agree also.
 
#13
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: jheat308</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Cash is king guys, make no mistake. Protect yourselves, get rid of debt because the cost of that debt will rise as the value of the dollar rises with it.
smile.gif
O boy thats funny. </div></div>

You got anything to say to back that up?
 
#15
Re: For those worried about inflation...

EventHorizon, Im not poking at you I just disagree and the way you put it made me smile. Have you seen what central banks are doing all over the world the last 5 years? Buying large stacks of Gold. Value is given to hard work and total production of products not running a printing press. The US GDP is overshot by a long run and still is over 100% debt to it. I could go on but im going to stop myself. In a couple years we will see how it breaks, Good luck.
 
#16
Re: For those worried about inflation...

Some interesting content...

view on impact of downgrade... not a lot...

And the TED Spread. When this spread spikes and looks to hit triple figures - watch out down below!

The TED Spread is your friend

Key points - recession ahead (high prob, not certain though), no inflation, high cost of credit and debt financing.

Some might say the US $ is heading down, this might be true, but others will fall before it does (Euro) and so I still maintian, cash is king or commodity ETFs (I'd be wary of oil though).

For those who play ETFs, SDD has been a good one for me both on the downside and the upside.

Have fun!
 
#17
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">.... Bullion is for the paranoid (EOTWAWKI) or the mega rich (contacts to sell it at good prices and storage costs). The retard on main street will not give you a good price and nor will Glenn Beck help you out.
. </div></div>

If you really think it's for the paranoid, you might want to read up on US History.

089c35e5.jpg


History tends to repeat itself. QEx is just our country repeating the history of many other countries while hoping for a different outcome.
 
#18
Re: For those worried about inflation...

China demands U.S. 'live within its means'
The largest foreign holder of U.S. treasuries responds to the S&P downgrading by calling for decreases in U.S. military outlays and social spending.

By David Pierson
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
1:52 AM PDT, August 6, 2011

China called on the United States to "cure its addiction to debts" and "learn to live within its means" in a searing commentary published Saturday by the official New China News Agency in response to Standard & Poor's historic downgrading of the U.S. government's credit rating a day earlier.

China, the largest foreign holder of U.S. federal debt, blamed "short-sighted political wrangling in Washington" for creating the current financial morass that now threatens to undermine the global economy.

"China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets," the commentary said.

"If no substantial cuts were made to the U.S. gigantic military expenditure and bloated social welfare costs, the downgrade would prove to be only a prelude to more devastating credit rating cuts, which will further roil the global financial markets all along the way," it continued.

China has regularly voiced concern about its dollar investments, most recently Wednesday when the governor of the country's central bank urged the U.S. to avoid a default and cut its deficit.

In addition to holding about $1.2 trillion in treasuries, an estimated two-thirds of China's $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves is estimated to be in dollars.

Standard & Poor's downgrading was the first in U.S. history and echoed downgrades issued by a little-known Chinese credit rating agency that has been dismissed by some China watchers as politically motivated.

The Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. twice lowered its rating for the U.S., most recently Wednesday when it said defects in the U.S. political structure stood in the way of solving the country's debt problems.

"Dagong Global, a fledgling Chinese rating agency, degraded the U.S. treasury bonds late last year, yet its move was met then with a sense of arrogance and cynicism from some Western commentators" the New China News Agency's Saturday editorial said. "Now S&P has proved what its Chinese counterpart has done is nothing but telling the global investors the ugly truth."

Jin Canrong, dean of international relations at China's Renmin University, said Beijing is especially fearful of another global recession because leaders have exhausted stimulus measures to blunt the effects of the 2008 financial crisis.

"A second recession would be a nightmare for China," Jin said.

Massive credit expansion since 2008 has led to the country's highest rate of inflation in three years -- fueling a national property bubble and potentially sowing the seeds of social instability.

China's heavy reliance on U.S. debt and the dollar is largely self-induced because of its decision to shun market forces and control the value of its currency to keep Chinese exports competitively cheap.

China's central bank must jettison trillions of incoming foreign exchange to ensure the yuan remains low. For the most part, U.S. treasuries represent the only destination large enough to accommodate China's holdings. Officials have periodically pledged to diversify China's reserves, but few alternatives exist.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fiw-china-response-20110807,0,3901161.story
 
#19
Re: For those worried about inflation...

Is it really that hard to cut spending? If we are talking about the possibility of another Great Depression, then it should be a no brainer. Bite the bullet now rather then in 3 years and "talk about what we should have done." I fully understand that my narrow view is just that, but I feel these politicians are playing a high stakes game and are not truly commited to righting the ship so to speak.

As for Putin and China and the rest of the world for that matter, I like to reflect on a question I posed to my 6th grade teacher when i was a kid. (early 80's when Cold War was still in gear.)
I asked why does the US send food to Russia, If they are our enemies? His reply was "Tis better to keep their bellies full and happy then starving and desparate."
At he time I took the comment as weakness on our part. I equated our "feeding the enemy" to that of the Romans pacifying the barbarians. I understand now what he meant was that if the Ruskies were going to die then everyone else was going to die with them. I like to think that is kinda what is going on here. If we "die' then the whole shithouse goes up as well. my thoughts
 
#20
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Goldie</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">don't be!

it costs you money to give the bank money....!

As I've been saying, we're on the verge of a major stock market crash (heading for 6K on the DOW I reckon) and with that comes deflation. Rising dollar, no credit, layoffs, belt tightening - think 2008.

Gold might be a good play but I'd get the ETF, not the stocks. Bullion is for the paranoid (EOTWAWKI) or the mega rich (contacts to sell it at good prices and storage costs). The retard on main street will not give you a good price and nor will Glenn Beck help you out.

Cash is king guys, make no mistake. Protect yourselves, get rid of debt because the cost of that debt will rise as the value of the dollar rises with it.

Good luck to all. </div></div>

Unfortunately I think your right....its not a matter of IF just a question of WHEN. Sooner or later the market will have to adjust to its REAL value which is a lot less then whats its been artificially propped up to be by massive influx if freshly printed cash. But as I heard on a broadcast last night, the Government doesn't have any arrows left in the quiver.

That's why the wealthy are buying expensive, cars, art etc.....tangible goods that will have value after the "deflation".

Look at whats going on in Europe....massive protests, with Greece and Ireland in the toilet, Spain and Italy not far from it. The only really stable spot there is Germany, and they cant float the whole continent. It may well get REALLY ugly here for a while...re: the stock crash of the 20's-30's.

It has happened, can happen again, and barring a miracle, probrably will. Not much anyone can do but hold on and ride it out. Id hate to be living in a major city now.

Parking all my millions in a HUGE mason jar.
whistle.gif
</div></div>


I've been saying the EXACT same things since Summer of 2010. It is not a matter of 'IF' but a matter of 'WHEN'. It's coming, and much sooner than many fail to believe or realize. In fact, I believe it will be <span style="font-style: italic">worse</span> than what was seen in the late '20's and early '30's. Although it's not something I talk about unless others bring it up, people around me have called me a doomsayer and I'm amazed by how many people just cannot see what this country is headed for. I'm not talking about a scene from <span style="font-style: italic">Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome</span> or <span style="font-style: italic">The Road</span> but a time when money loses its value and food becomes scarce, <span style="font-style: italic"><span style="text-decoration: underline">very scarce.</span></span> Failure to make preparations <span style="font-style: italic">now</span>, while there's still time, will only put your family in harms way unnecessarily.
 
#21
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<object width="425" height="350"> <param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/2JBsGn6XtaM"></param> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param> <embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/2JBsGn6XtaM" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"> </embed></object>

This one is the most troubling...

<object width="425" height="350"> <param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/K2IYIJc1f00&feature=fvwrel"></param> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param> <embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/K2IYIJc1f00&feature=fvwrel" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"> </embed></object>
 
#22
Re: For those worried about inflation...

MadMax will be seen as comedy compared to %$"#" that is coming our way. People hate the truth and are quick to attach labels "doomsayer" "conspiracy nut" "panicker" etc.. however when reality bites it BITES and for some it will be EPIC.

Cut spending? Austerity? Getting out of debt? Thats a science fiction. You are presuming that people in power are sane and rational persons who are either naive and incompetent but you fail to understand that most of them are sick little puppies and there is no way in hell they'd release the stranglehold on nations or their power... So reality (by my account) is that kicking the can will continue until hell breaks loose and people either rebel or they get their fascist/totalitarian/orwellian heaven.
 
#23
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Sharac</div><div class="ubbcode-body">As i all ready posted in similar thread i suggest you read upon this "little" article it might just save you lots of wealth...

</div></div>

That boy has a hard time time coming to a point. For those that aren't interested in suffering through it (I wouldn't again), here is the gem out the whole thing:

<span style="font-style: italic">This whole IMF dollar system has always been based on an expanding fiat theory that swells [nominal] GDP over time. Investors that bet on deflation coming along, after each of our bouts of inflation, were badly burned as deflation was overcome. Economic function returned, essentially because price inflation could not rout the overall market for long credit.

The flaw in all of this was in the reserve structure of our Dollar IMF money system. The fact that the world had to walk, lock step, with our money policy meant that their goods production would almost always be cheaper than ours; keeping local US price inflation under control. In other words; local US-based price inflation could not get out of hand as long as the rest of the world was willing to use their economic production to control it by selling [products cheaper than we could produce them] into our expanding fiat system.

In this, the dollar [and its securities, and their derivatives] could be inflated without end while our credit markets functioned in a non-inflationary environment.

But there is an end.

A money system like this has a definite timeline and that point is reached when the world can move away from keeping price inflation low in the US. That point is reached when Another money system comes along to challenge the dollar and, in the process, offer these other goods-producing countries a chance to buy some "lifestyle" for themselves. </span>

Now a couple of things - 1) Moodys and Fitch have not downgraded the US. Remember that all of the rating companies were complicit in the last bubble - read they are all full of shit and crooks to boot. So for one of the three to position themselves this way? Maybe....maybe not. 2) What I have read is that we are potentially talking about 70 basis points to the Fed Fund Rate - not exactly earth shaking.

The issue is that at the end of the day, our currency is about confidence. We have, and have had a bunch of clowns at the wheel. The 'fix' is dumping the Fed in favor of a new central bank. Given the level of confidence in the world over fiat money in general, it isn't likely that it will be a single nation. Enter carbon taxation and some form of a world bank.


Good luck


ETA - Mad Max? Really? Really? Let me turn that frown upside down for you. If you were one that benefited from the scheme, and understood the scheme to get it to this point - A) you probably don't want to be one of the few 'haves' in a Mad Max style world B) you probably have a plan to advance the ball down the field. Central banks beget bigger central banks with better guarantees of revenue streams - that's the basic rule of that portion of the game.
 
#24
Re: For those worried about inflation...

Yeah those posts are a struggle
smile.gif
but mind you the essence of those posts comes from two persons from USgold forums back in 90s Another and Friend of Another who predicted and explained in "hardcore" economic terms what is happening and what is in store for the future. Identity of those boys was never revealed but from the information and language used there are speculations that they were either national bank (probably somewhere in Europe) insiders (pretty high up) or from BIS. They stopped posting somewhere around 2000.

I don't know and i can only speculate and give my opinion and from my standpoint i think the plan is something along the lines of Orwells 1984 or Matrix where "drones" will work their lives off for the elite. Since most people won't buy this (my optimistic view) there will be a struggle which will lead to chaos and destruction (as elites to be are overconfident and insane i.e. drunk with power - again my optimistic view) and this will be nothing this world has ever seen (carnage and destruction)...
Things can go sour in a blink of an eye (imagine shortage of food/water/medicine in some metropolis...) or they can creep along for a few more years or even a decade. Fact is easy life is over and happy times far far away...
 
#25
Re: For those worried about inflation...

It's all about emotions.

There will be a huge sell off on Monday and then the market will start to recover, slowly.

Even I'm tempted to pull my stocks I have, wait a day or two and buy back in...
 
#26
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Sharac</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Yeah those posts are a struggle
smile.gif
but mind you the essence of those posts comes from two persons from USgold forums back in 90s Another and Friend of Another who predicted and explained in "hardcore" economic terms what is happening and what is in store for the future. Identity of those boys was never revealed but from the information and language used there are speculations that they were either national bank (probably somewhere in Europe) insiders (pretty high up) or from BIS. They stopped posting somewhere around 2000.

I don't know and i can only speculate and give my opinion and from my standpoint i think the plan is something along the lines of Orwells 1984 or Matrix where "drones" will work their lives off for the elite. Since most people won't buy this (my optimistic view) there will be a struggle which will lead to chaos and destruction (as <span style="color: #FF0000">elites to be are overconfident and insane i.e. drunk with power </span> - again my optimistic view) and this will be nothing this world has ever seen (carnage and destruction)...
Things can go sour in a blink of an eye (imagine shortage of food/water/medicine in some metropolis...) or they can creep along for a few more years or even a decade. Fact is easy life is over and happy times far far away... </div></div>

"The people have no bread? Let them eat cake".....Marie Antoinette. We know what happened to her....The sound of a bleade being sharpened.
 
#27
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ArcticLight</div><div class="ubbcode-body">It's all about emotions.

There will be a huge sell off on Monday and then the market will start to recover, slowly.

Even I'm tempted to pull my stocks I have, wait a day or two and buy back in... </div></div>

I was all in cash a week or so ago, just before the big drop, pure luck in regards to timing as I was getting ready to buy a dip on some options elsewhere. I don't think there's going to be a massive sell off tomorrow. The news over the weekend has been largely "meh" as S&P were dumb in their pre-debt ceiling deal posturing a Moody's & Fitch played their hands nicely.

I still maintain the iceberg is Europe with China a close second. If Spain/Italy go tits up then watch out! Euro - kaput! You will see the dollar hit the moon and beyond. It will be a GREAT time to buy some awesome Margaux...

My view:

1. no job creation this year or early next.
2. rise in the dollar over the next few months as tension over Europe mounts
3. China property bubble to burst - loudly and their exchange to tank
4. MOney will flood out of stocks towards the end of the year.
5. more lay offs at that time.
6. we will see a DOW around 7k or maybe even a little less.
7. house prices will decline a further 10-15%
8. banks will release a flood of foreclosures they already have on their books in anticipation of new ones coming on.
9. rents of residences will start to really rise as the 'dream' of owning is realized to be an actual, and real, nightmare.
10. Unemployment will become seriously entrenched. The fall of house prices will mean a further encumbrance to the mobility of labour and so those out of work will not be able to travel easily to find work where there are jobs.
11. Unions, public pensions and other products of collective action blackmail will FINALLY go bankrupt. YAY! Cities, municipalities and states will be able to re-budget, re-allocate and hopefully tell unions to go spit!
12. wait a little bit, look at the technicals - then it would be a GREAT time to start getting back in the market for a good long, steady bull.

Cash is king. However bad it is here, it's worse elsewhere, the realist looks at all the evidence, not just that within his own borders and sees what is instead of looking for what supports his assumptions and second-hand views.

Be careful out there. There is money to be made, and the chance to protect your hard earned savings and wealth, but you got to do your own homework with an open mind.

Good luck all.
 
#28
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ArcticLight</div><div class="ubbcode-body">It's all about emotions.

There will be a huge sell off on Monday and then the market will start to recover, slowly.

Even I'm tempted to pull my stocks I have, wait a day or two and buy back in... </div></div>

I was all in cash a week or so ago, just before the big drop, pure luck in regards to timing as I was getting ready to buy a dip on some options elsewhere. I don't think there's going to be a massive sell off tomorrow. The news over the weekend has been largely "meh" as S&P were dumb in their pre-debt ceiling deal posturing a Moody's & Fitch played their hands nicely.

I still maintain the iceberg is Europe with China a close second. If Spain/Italy go tits up then watch out! Euro - kaput! You will see the dollar hit the moon and beyond. It will be a GREAT time to buy some awesome Margaux...

My view:

1. no job creation this year or early next.
2. rise in the dollar over the next few months as tension over Europe mounts
3. China property bubble to burst - loudly and their exchange to tank

<span style="color: #FF6666">One policy has been the rapid expansion of China’s money supply. The broad money measure known as M2 has soared in China by 64.3 percent since the start of 2009 — far outpacing the 10.4 percent of M2 in the United States in that period.

The expanding money supply has produced rapid inflation in housing prices, and is starting to affect consumer goods and services. Prices in June were up 6.4 percent from a year earlier, and economists will closely examine the consumer price index figures for July when they are released Tuesday morning in Beijing. </span>
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/09/busine...ref=global-home
4. MOney will flood out of stocks towards the end of the year.
5. more lay offs at that time.
6. we will see a DOW around 7k or maybe even a little less.
7. house prices will decline a further 10-15%
8. banks will release a flood of foreclosures they already have on their books in anticipation of new ones coming on.
9. rents of residences will start to really rise as the 'dream' of owning is realized to be an actual, and real, nightmare.
10. Unemployment will become seriously entrenched. The fall of house prices will mean a further encumbrance to the mobility of labour and so those out of work will not be able to travel easily to find work where there are jobs.
11. Unions, public pensions and other products of collective action blackmail will FINALLY go bankrupt. YAY! Cities, municipalities and states will be able to re-budget, re-allocate and hopefully tell unions to go spit!
12. wait a little bit, look at the technicals - then it would be a GREAT time to start getting back in the market for a good long, steady bull.

Cash is king. However bad it is here, it's worse elsewhere, the realist looks at all the evidence, not just that within his own borders and sees what is instead of looking for what supports his assumptions and second-hand views.

Be careful out there. There is money to be made, and the chance to protect your hard earned savings and wealth, but you got to do your own homework with an open mind.

Good luck all. </div></div>

See story re China M2 money supply growth on your 3'rd point.

You could be right about everything except #11 The difficulty of driving any nails in the coffin of large unions or protected public and private pension plans is huge. It almost always requires near bankruptcy of the company, city or corporation.
 
#29
Re: For those worried about inflation...

Phil1 - the cities and states are already on the verge. The recent debt deal all buy assured it. Soon over time I believe you will see a MASSIVE stampede away from Muni-bonds. I've taken a short position with some tight stops on muni's. I reckon they and corporate bonds are going to be the new 'sub-prime'.

The unions have boxed themselves in with their greed and self-interest. The union leaders are no better than the self-interested slime that pose as servants of the public. Unions are the worst derivative of socialism and they've outstayed their welcome.
 
#30
Re: For those worried about inflation...

Municipalities / Unions (IMHO):

The basic play is merely re-amortize and re-capitalize based on the 'current' tax revenue stream in order to service the debt. Coupled with the dollar volume - while staggering to all of us, isn't to the fools driving the bus (every debt obligation of every struggling municipality does not need to be re-am'd and re-cap'd all at once). Leads me to say - we will not see substantial change to the way public employee union contracts are negotiated nor the wages and benefits the members receive. At best, you may see a change in the way 'future hires' are compensated. However,if history is an indicator - this deal will not last for long.

The FED is still the lender of last resort, and will be used as such to the benefit of the SEIU. We will not see real change until the situation for the US as a whole is substantially worse.

If these defaults manifested themselves as isolated events, then the municipalities would have the ability to negotiate real change to these contracts. However, since this has the potential of impacting ALL SEIU members (even at the Federal Level) I would expect we will reach a tipping point (a politically sensitive number of defaults impacting a threshold number of Union members) and then you will then see a master plan rolled out by Barry and Deaftones. I also bet that any previously negotiated deal between SEIU locals and an individual municipality gets rolled into the master deal by way of legal challenges after the fact - with the challenge ultimately paid for by the taxpayer.

Just my thoughts from the vantage point of the cheap seats.


Good luck
 
#31
Re: For those worried about inflation...

Mo,

I think the ability, and appetite for that kind of accounting is all but dried up. I don't believe cities would declare bankrupt if it could be avoided - not for any reason other than politics - but I don't think it can be for much longer. The key is the muni bonds. There were, for the longest time, the enabler to this union disease. The city leaders could continue caving in so long as there was a revenue base that was growing (taxes) and debt-finance - munis. I think both sources are about to dry up and the union leaders FINALLY are going to be seen for what they have been for over a generation - thieves.
 
#32
Re: For those worried about inflation...

All I know about fucking economics is this:

EVERYTHING I need to purchase now is three to five times the cost it was 15 years ago. In that span of time my wife's and mine income has remained exactly the same, combined, despite several job shifts, a college degree, and a run at a second career; as a result she is currently making slightly more than me, where 15 years ago that was severely lopsided the other way around.

The ONLY thing that's kept us afloat, other than a steady diet of belt tightening, is the fact that three of our six kids have left home, married, and on their own.

That's real world economics for way too many people in this country......the ones lucky enough to have jobs.
 
#33
Re: For those worried about inflation...

People are blind as a bat. Not long ago women were able to be at home and take care of home, kids etc... Now they HAVE to work and it was sold to them as something good... As you've seen quality of whats important has gone down, cheap food is basically a killer, drinks are all with 10% sugar (or more), people are more dumb more fat more lazy than ever. Progress i tell you....

But hey all is well people are partying all over town (London&Co)...
 
#34
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
and nor will Glenn Beck help you out.
</div></div>
damn... i knew i shouldn't of had Glenn help me out back when he was "ranting" about buying gold back in 05 when it was still under 500 an ounce... now its what... almost 1800... thanks alot Glenn for nothin.
 
#36
Re: For those worried about inflation...

Gold still has a long way to go. But my suggestion is buy the ETF - GLD, not the bullion (as per Beck). For those who buy gold bullion for SHTF - that was my comment regarding Beck not helping you out. Context makes a difference...
 
#37
Re: For those worried about inflation...

You think Gold still has a long way to go in the somewhat near future? I can't see it going up too much higher until TSHTF- well... we could be pretty close to TSHTF the way things are looking
 
#38
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: rmyers2213</div><div class="ubbcode-body">You think Gold still has a long way to go in the somewhat near future? I can't see it going up too much higher until TSHTF- well... we could be pretty close to TSHTF the way things are looking </div></div>
when it hits the fan, or when you think its about to...start buyin puts.
 
#42
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Sharac</div><div class="ubbcode-body">People are blind as a bat. Not long ago women were able to be at home and take care of home, kids etc... Now they HAVE to work and it was sold to them as something good... As you've seen quality of whats important has gone down, cheap food is basically a killer, drinks are all with 10% sugar (or more), people are more dumb more fat more lazy than ever. Progress i tell you....

</div></div>

Since you responded to me, yeah, 15 years ago....as in our case.

Not blind as a bat here....stuff is pretty damn fucking clear as a bell.

And, if you're lumping me in with the fat, lazy, and dumb then, well, you best hope we don't ever meet face to face.......
 
#43
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">you contrarian you... </div></div>
LMAO.
 
#44
Re: For those worried about inflation...

Actually i was agreeing with you no need to be that defensive dude...

My point was people are generally worse off than xy years ago. If you measure progress with Iphones than yes we are on top of the world but if you measure progress with quality of life itself we're at the bottom...
 
#46
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: rmyers2213</div><div class="ubbcode-body">when it is just about to hit the fan, I think I will unload on more food storage and ammo</div></div>

My thoughts as well. Gold, in my opinion, will be pretty much worthless in a SHTF scenario. Why? You can't eat gold. You can't drink gold. You can't survive on gold. You can't use gold to protect your family. In fact, gold will be useless for purchasing ANYTHING from others because...what the hell are THEY going to do with some pretty metal when it's food, water, ammo, or other things they need in order to survive until order has been restored? Besides, it only takes a single bullet to take all the gold you have.

Those are my thoughts on the matter. Laugh or agree, it makes no difference to me.
wink.gif
 
#47
Re: For those worried about inflation...

Why do people consistently equate the collapse of a econ / fiat monetary system with long term Armageddon and lawlessness due to the absence of authority?




Good luck
 
#48
Re: For those worried about inflation...

it's some kind of conventional 'wisdom' that's taken root, like an urban myth. I have to admit I bought into it at first and got all interested in reading about heirloom seeds and what not, but to be honest, given the grief my wife would give me every time i screwed up a harvest I'm not sure I'd want to be around... j/k....
 
#50
Re: For those worried about inflation...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Sharac</div><div class="ubbcode-body">My point was people are generally worse off than xy years ago. If you measure progress with Iphones than yes we are on top of the world but if you measure progress with quality of life itself we're at the bottom...
</div></div>
Agree with this 100%
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Maggot
Interesting article on gold
Replies
2
Views
839
Cegorach
C
McCrazy
Gun Safes: how to select and why.
Replies
23
Views
3K
Easy_E
E
P
Gold, God and Guns! ???
Replies
26
Views
2K
DaveV
D
C
No mor middle class America
Replies
11
Views
1K
teknikallysekure
teknikallysekure
Lazlo
Gen Kelly Remarks to Semper Fi Society
Replies
10
Views
2K
Handloader
H
Top Bottom
Back
Home
Forums
Merch
Alerts