Gun Purchase Decline?

[lariat]

Maybe that helps with range time and new gun purchase costs? I'm not going to hold my breath that some of the newer offerings are going to come off in price too much.

American Gun Demand Hits Five-Year Low As Covid Mania Cools | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Blue Sky Country]

Gun sales are usually determined by social/political trends and threat level that they pose.

2020-2021 saw an all time high in new gun purchases in not just the US, but everywhere else in the world where guns are available for purchase, due to obvious reasons.

The thing which makes firearms stand out from many other things are their resale value. Firearms last and are meant to last. Unless a gun has been horrifically Bubba'd to the point of resembling a wasp's nest rather than a practical firearm, or severely beaten up due to lack of care and maintenance, the resale value of guns do not drop much at all. A lot of lightly used or new in box guns are now innundating private merchant networks like Gunbroker, due to people selling off excess inventory that they had acquired before and see no need to have so much now. New sales may be dropping but people who are still in the market for guns and have the time to browse for deals are probably buying them from private sellers right now.

 

[MadDuner]

If they are attempting to gauge the number of firearm purchases by using NICS checks data - that's the same as gauging new car sales by the number of new driver's licenses issued.

 

[babyguppy]

Did a 3 letter agency find a new way to send guns to Mexican cartels? Maybe this is why there's a decline.

 

[MadDuner]

Did a 3 letter agency find a new way to send guns to Mexican cartels? Maybe this is why there's a decline.

Wide open borders allow traffic both directions.

 

[Fx51LP308]

I am curious, though. Is there also a corresponding decline in the sale of Ammo? Not that I can see from my ammoseek tracking.

 

[MadDuner]

Of course there's the other possibility - that the inflation squeeze is removing some of the discretionary spending dollars that traditionally get used for purchases of everyone's umpteenth handgun or rifle they can't live without.

 

[babyguppy]

sportman warehouse has NEW gen 5 G20's (10mm) on sale for 650

 

[HPIguy]

sportman warehouse has NEW gen 5 G20's (10mm) on sale for 650

1. Not a great deal
2. What's that got to do with this thread?

 

[doubloon]

I am curious, though. Is there also a corresponding decline in the sale of Ammo? Not that I can see from my ammoseek tracking.

Decline in civilian sales due to decline in availability mostly is what I *think*. Government demand for ammo/munitions seems high which probably puts a kink in civilian supply as plants shift to meet the demands of their biggest buyer. A lot of plants don't make every kind of ammo 24/7/365 ... .380 *I think* only gets produced "seasonally" then sales for the rest of the year limp along on what was made.

Then there's the plant ka-booms. IIRC a couple three plants eXpLOdeD ... I don't know if they've recovered yet or not.

Black powder completely vanished from civilian shelves for a while maybe due to a combination of government demands and plant ka-booms. I haven't looked in a while so I don't know what black powder availability looks like these days.

Same for Trailboss ... not a single ounce on shelves for months and Hodgdon at one time said they had no plans to make any more of it for a year or more while they shifted production to something else.

All just guesses based on observations which may not be entirely accurate.

 

[db2000]

Not sure if it’s related or not but my background checks on 2 recent occasions were approved in 30 minutes or so. I’m always on a delay but usually 2-3 hours avg.

 

[Blue Sky Country]

Decline in civilian sales due to decline in availability mostly is what I *think*. Government demand for ammo/munitions seems high which probably puts a kink in civilian supply as plants shift to meet the demands of their biggest buyer. A lot of plants don't make every kind of ammo 24/7/365 ... .380 *I think* only gets produced "seasonally" then sales for the rest of the year limp along on what was made.

Then there's the plant ka-booms. IIRC a couple three plants eXpLOdeD ... I don't know if they've recovered yet or not.

Black powder completely vanished from civilian shelves for a while maybe due to a combination of government demands and plant ka-booms. I haven't looked in a while so I don't know what black powder availability looks like these days.

Same for Trailboss ... not a single ounce on shelves for months and Hodgdon at one time said they had no plans to make any more of it for a year or more while they shifted production to something else.

All just guesses based on observations which may not be entirely accurate.

I believe all modern artillery rounds as well as the solid propellant charges in Javelins, Starstreaks, and other man portable and vehicle mounted antitank/antiaircraft missiles use cakes of black powder as a primer to distribute even ignition to the smokeless powder and solid rocket motors that provide the heavy duty lifting. We have been sending an awful amount of artillery and rocket munitions to Ukraine and they need to be replenished. That can account for the sudden strain on the already small black powder market that we have here.

 

[MadDuner]

There was a shortage of subsonic 300BO for awhile, and SG said that it was because of a powder shortage in manufacturing.

I've stocked up pretty well - in anticipation of the situation repeating.

 

[babyguppy]

1. Not a great deal
2. What's that got to do with this thread?

Read post 2 and 7; you figure it out.
Then bounce over to the inflation thread, and then put 2+2 together
and read the topic one more time

 

[gunsnjeeps]

It's because everyone bought guns. Now they're buying ammo.

 

[HPIguy]

Read post 2 and 7; you figure it out.
Then bounce over to the inflation thread, and then put 2+2 together
and read the topic one more time

Eh, they were posted for $459 the other day NIB. Plus whatever your FFL charges for the transfer of course.

 

[RUTGERS95]

good bring down ammo costs

 

[Maggot]

Of course there's the other possibility - that the inflation squeeze is removing some of the discretionary spending dollars that traditionally get used for purchases of everyone's umpteenth handgun or rifle they can't live without.

I think its this and that everyone is pretty well bought up by now. That can only mean one thing.

Time for another crisis to get them afraid again.

 

[sirhrmechanic]

Of course there's the other possibility - that the inflation squeeze is removing some of the discretionary spending dollars that traditionally get used for purchases of everyone's umpteenth handgun or rifle they can't live without.

^^^ This.

Sirhr

 

[lash]

Look at prices and availability of low end firearms and range ammo. Down as low as I’ve seen them and tons in stock. Under $400 ARs, 9mm range fodder for $10/50 or less, .223 range stuff $6-7/20. Saw a place offering off brand cases of .223 shoot-em-up stuff for $239 shipped.

Supply and demand. Demand goes up once people are scared or worried. Price and availability follow.

Notable exceptions are match ammo and reloading supplies that are still in high demand and LRP which are being depleted elsewhere in the world right now.

 

[Ronws]

Did a 3 letter agency find a new way to send guns to Mexican cartels? Maybe this is why there's a decline.

Where is Atty Gen Eric Holder when you need him?

 

[Lapuapalooza]

Look at prices and availability of low end firearms and range ammo. Down as low as I’ve seen them and tons in stock. Under $400 ARs, 9mm range fodder for $10/50 or less, .223 range stuff $6-7/20. Saw a place offering off brand cases of .223 shoot-em-up stuff for $239 shipped.

Supply and demand. Demand goes up once people are scared or worried. Price and availability follow.

Notable exceptions are match ammo and reloading supplies that are still in high demand and LRP which are being depleted elsewhere in the world right now.

I just want my 3.2 cent primers and H1000 back.

 

[chevy_man]

I just want my 3.2 cent primers and H1000 back.

I replaced my 243ai with a 25 creed just because I can easily find 6.5 sta-bal or h4350. I was lucky I bought enough h1000 to burn the barrel out 3 years ago.

 

[lash]

I just want my 3.2 cent primers and H1000 back.

I completely agree.

 

[gunsnjeeps]

I just want my 3.2 cent primers and H1000 back.

My last bulk primer purchase was $99.00 for 5k, I don't remember if it was free shipping or not.

 

[Hippy_Steve]

Gun sales are usually determined by social/political trends and threat level that they pose.

2020-2021 saw an all time high in new gun purchases in not just the US, but everywhere else in the world where guns are available for purchase, due to obvious reasons.

The thing which makes firearms stand out from many other things are their resale value. Firearms last and are meant to last. Unless a gun has been horrifically Bubba'd to the point of resembling a wasp's nest rather than a practical firearm, or severely beaten up due to lack of care and maintenance, the resale value of guns do not drop much at all. A lot of lightly used or new in box guns are now innundating private merchant networks like Gunbroker, due to people selling off excess inventory that they had acquired before and see no need to have so much now. New sales may be dropping but people who are still in the market for guns and have the time to browse for deals are probably buying them from private sellers right now.

I think the current market is being driven by the panic minimum you’re describing, leading many into a sense of complacency, seeing the their collection as a source of liquidity to make ends meet. People are financially broke, and aren’t really buying anything new right now. On top of the lack of demand, these same broke buyers would rather have the cash over a 5th PSA parts gun AR. I think this flood of second hand mostly NIB firearms is saturating the supply of the firearms market, forcing dealers to sell at cost just to compete with Bubba Fudd who is motivated to sell at a loss to make rent and his truck payment.

 

[Jsp556]

I think the current market is being driven by the panic minimum you’re describing, leading many into a sense of complacency, seeing the their collection as a source of liquidity to make ends meet. People are financially broke, and aren’t really buying anything new right now. On top of the lack of demand, these same broke buyers would rather have the cash over a 5th PSA parts gun AR. I think this flood of second hand mostly NIB firearms is saturating the supply of the firearms market, forcing dealers to sell at cost just to compete with Bubba Fudd who is motivated to sell at a loss to make rent and his truck payment.

Problem is that they’re asking msrp or above for used rifles. I’m still waiting for the panic selling. Lol

 

[Downtown]

Don't worry, it's likely that the big sell-off will come. The Recession of 2001 saw the market flooded with Y2K purchases, lots of ARs, AKs, cases of ammo. Great times for cash buyers.

 

[Ronws]

Problem is that they’re asking msrp or above for used rifles. I’m still waiting for the panic selling. Lol

Yeah, I see that too. And if I have to pay MSRP, why bother with used?

 

[Jsp556]

Yeah, I see that too. And if I have to pay MSRP, why bother with used?

No 4473 bro. Feds aren’t watching the trading sites. Lol

RARE…. Only made for one year. Like new. They don’t make them like this anymore.

Ask @Burdy. He sees the retarded shit posted on his site

 

[Sniperwannabee]

Well due to inflation and high interest rates people can’t afford them

 

[supercorndogs]

So after setting sales records for like 10 straight years....

All the illegals here can't go to the gun shop, so they are making "straw" purchases of firearms. Or just bringing machine guns from Mexico, courtesy of Obama and Eric Holder....

 

[acudaowner]

while I refuse to spend money on an item I can't get mags for I do keep my eyes open for those I might want in the future . but a 10 round mag is beneath me and until I can get 20 rounds + I will not be happy spending money on it .

 

[cas6969]

Maybe it's because every month they're spending an extra $200 on gas, an extra $700 on groceries, an extra.....

 

[MadDuner]

Don't worry, it's likely that the big sell-off will come. The Recession of 2001 saw the market flooded with Y2K purchases, lots of ARs, AKs, cases of ammo. Great times for cash buyers.

Probably contributed more to the demise of Backpage than anything else….

 

[E. Bryant]

Look at prices and availability of low end firearms and range ammo. Down as low as I’ve seen them and tons in stock. Under $400 ARs, 9mm range fodder for $10/50 or less, .223 range stuff $6-7/20. Saw a place offering off brand cases of .223 shoot-em-up stuff for $239 shipped.

Supply and demand. Demand goes up once people are scared or worried. Price and availability follow.

Notable exceptions are match ammo and reloading supplies that are still in high demand and LRP which are being depleted elsewhere in the world right now.

Looking at things from the dealer perspective, it would appear that wholesalers and distributors are stuffed full of the low-end stuff. There are daily sales on bread-and-butter models like Ruger Americans, almost any polymer pistol, etc. Ammo sales and incentives are also widespread, at least among plinking-grade fodder.

Then there are very few models that are in high demand with apparent insufficient supply; two recent examples that come to mind are the Ruger-Marlin lever actions and Staccato., but really just about any "Gucci gun" can be difficult to acquire at times.

It definitely seems that demand has fallen - at least by the normies - and it also appears that the industry is struggling to balance its output to match current demand. Unless there's another big spike like 2013 or 2020, it might get kinda messy.

 

[RUTGERS95]

until I see 5.56 for 300/case, 9mm at 170/case, 308 at sub 45cents/rd for DAG then the answer is no

 

[lash]

until I see 5.56 for 300/case, 9mm at 170/case, 308 at sub 45cents/rd for DAG then the answer is no

If you are waiting for the return of pre-2020 prices, you are going to be waiting a long time. The cost of all raw materials has increased, not the least of which is primers. Inflation waits for no man.

 

[RUTGERS95]

If you are waiting for the return of pre-2020 prices, you are going to be waiting a long time. The cost of all raw materials has increased, not the least of which is primers. Inflation waits for no man.

yes I know, hence my post