Demand is soft absent checks, which is why retail sales cratered. Who knows what will happen with more bribes, I mean checks, or more people reentering the work force.
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Inflation.......... ?
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
Its a big sector, but it isn't the entire economy. From today's report, and this is m/m data.
So some of the softness is attributable to inventory shortfalls, which is an odd phenomenon pointing at the possibility that retailers feel they have less pricing power than we might think, or have tapped out the pricing power they had, but there is also just general softness in retail, including online. Part of that could be a repurposing of money toward entertainment as it opens up, but the fact remains that there are significant countervailing forces working on the economy right now.
Again, I am not saying that inflation isn't a concern, I am saying it is a risk but so are other bad outcomes. Mostly saying I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket, intellectually or financially.
I hope you are right. Inflation is one of those things that can be really hard to judge from an anecdotal standpoint, which is why the CPI, which is imperfect, often receives even more scorn than it deserves. If you have a population heavy with small contractors, farmers and rural types, which I imagine is the case here, you are likely to see inflation as higher than it is economy wide because you are in the baskets -- trucks, retail building materials, fuel -- that have had the hardest time. If you are, for example, a welfare recipient in the city, you likely aren't seeing much inflation at all, as you don't likely drive much, and have no dominion over your own domicile. That's not to say anecdotes are unimportant, but they need qualification, as you qualified both of yours.
Another personal difficulty, and one I run into, is that I am pretty immune to inflation in that I am partially retired by choice, have basically what I want, and don't think much about what I have to pay about things, because what I am buying is either minor, or it is because it is a purchase I really want to make. So if N570 is selling on gunbroker for $600/8 lbs, I dgaf. I am happy to buy it*. I would feel very differently if I knew that over the next ten years I was going to have to build, or remodel, a house and send two kids to college. So I would discount a lot of my own anecdotal experience as outside of the mainstream preference wise.
Anyway, I maintain that the only smart course of action is to be looking at all reports and trying to figure out what is going on, BUT, that for most people who work for a living, the only tenable course of action is to live life, do your best, and not focus on what cannot be changed.
ETA, your last post is much along my way of thinking. Lots of WTF that doesn't give the clearest picture. Elevated, but balanced, risk. Also truly tight SFH inventory strikes me as much better than whatever the fuck we saw in 07-08.
*sorry guys, I'm the one fucking it up.
Yes, BlackRock’s Home-Buying Spree Should Concern You
The general public doesn't normally look into companies like BlackRock, the largest asset management firm on the planet with over
freedomfirstnetwork.com
Not sure I saw that here previously... sorry if it's a dupe... but China is directly responsible for buying up all the homes way above market price.
I'm sure this is part of an orchastrated effort.. they also jacked up all their import prices.. they are probably also responsible for the auto chip debacle.
I’m with you. Just signed the contract for our new house last week. Lumber prices are starting to trend down.
It's going to be interesting to see how BFR plays out as a larger part of the sector. I just wish all of these interesting experiments could be done in a lab, rather than on people. Oh, wait, that was two years ago's thought. lol.
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spot on, not good for overall economy or wealth creation for future generations
Counterpoint being that we have seen the effect of hyperconcentration of wealth in housing assets can do.
Lumber executive sees further relief in sky-high prices, says delaying building projects makes sense
Lumber industry veteran Kyle Little said it's sensible to delay building projects due to high wood costs. "We do see some relief over the next six to 12 months."
www.cnbc.com
Interesting concept... In a way it reminds me of the Hunt Brother's attempting to corner the silver market. Of course, they were not using government money. If they would have been.... They probably would have cornered the silver market.Yes, BlackRock’s Home-Buying Spree Should Concern You
The general public doesn't normally look into companies like BlackRock, the largest asset management firm on the planet with over
Not sure I saw that here previously... sorry if it's a dupe... but China is directly responsible for buying up all the homes way above market price.
I'm sure this is part of an orchastrated effort.. they also jacked up all their import prices.. they are probably also responsible for the auto chip debacle.
There are several unknowns. First, the future is unknown. Some "What If's"... What if CW2 becomes a reality ? What if the value of the USD continues to fall and the rent's become too high for the average renter to afford ? Will the US Government kick in, again, and pay American's rent each month ? The list of unknowns is very long.
I would be curious as to how much "Re-Insurance" funds are in place as a hedge against a financial collapse. Of course, the consumer is paying the re-insurance fees for BlackRock. The article alludes to "We have to stop this".... It would take substancial resources to stop this type of business dealings. No one is going to put those resources at stake to stop this movement. After all, it's still a gamble for BlackRock.
JMHO
Best get some now.... Still a better deal than on the black market next year.Ordered a ton of magazines out of Israel and Dolla no good anymore price hike is about 20+% as they just switched to selling from USD to Euro 1:1
2x over twenty years is not a huge change. We will see what happens, but he also said in his comment something that resembled yours, in that buyers are savvy to price changes in this market, which is a limiting factor.
Earlier in this thread, or maybe it was another one, I talked about the difference between the housing meltdown and now.
Big investors are buying physical properties this time around.
The people buying houses this time around can actually afford them.
People are chasing yield.
I’m waiting for gas to hit $5 again on the east coast before I start looking to invest in real estate some more.
Big investors are buying physical properties this time around.
The people buying houses this time around can actually afford them.
People are chasing yield.
I’m waiting for gas to hit $5 again on the east coast before I start looking to invest in real estate some more.
Maybe but unlike US suppliers, Israelis have no supply issues so far.
Rents for single-family homes just saw the largest gains in nearly 15 years
Rents for single-family homes just saw the largest gains in nearly 15 years
With home prices sky high, demand for single-family rental homes is soaring – and so are the rents.
www.cnbc.com
This is not transitory. Difficult to ignore history........ A few items = price of gasoline, cost of healthcare, cost of a Remington 700, cost of a vehicle, cost of keeping a roof over your head. The list is long.
Just ordered tires for three different vehicles, as there was some pretty good online deals the past couple days, with free shipping.
Toyo Open Country AT3 - made in Japan
Falken Wild Peak A/T3W - made in USA
Nokian Rotiiva AT - made in Finland
The Toyo's I received next day, amazing fast shipping.
The Falken's are waiting on the distributor to get them in the system for shipping.
The Nokian's just popped up this morning with 4 In Stock, so I snagged them as they're very hard to get.
I needed new tires across the board, so I'm glad I was able to get good prices, as I can foresee the price escalating as inflation rises. I consider tires a commodity.
Toyo Open Country AT3 - made in Japan
Falken Wild Peak A/T3W - made in USA
Nokian Rotiiva AT - made in Finland
The Toyo's I received next day, amazing fast shipping.
The Falken's are waiting on the distributor to get them in the system for shipping.
The Nokian's just popped up this morning with 4 In Stock, so I snagged them as they're very hard to get.
I needed new tires across the board, so I'm glad I was able to get good prices, as I can foresee the price escalating as inflation rises. I consider tires a commodity.
Having good tires on a vehicle is money in the bank. Especially if you have to head for the hills.
Re: corporations, your assessment was correct in the days before corporate buY-backs, a utilization of excess capital to pump up the stock price so the big boys can cash out on their stock options for windfall profit.
There is literally nothing wrong with stock buybacks. Stop buying into left wing garbage talking points.
Your sandbox logic is best used on your contemporaries.
I'm not constrained by the box you've bought.
Alumni vs. Alumnus - Dictionary.com
Do you know if you’re an alumnus or an alumni? Alumni actually is the plural form of alumnus, a Latin word that means a graduate or former student of an educational institution. Although alumnus usually refers to academics, it can also mean a former employee, associate, or member of any...
www.dictionary.com
R
Your utter failure to comprehend history while attacking your own people smells like Daddy issues and willful ignorance. Who put Wilson in office to set up the federal reserve fiat $ scam ? Who let FDR goad us into WW2, ultimately giving Russia Eastern Europe , while confiscation citizens gold ? Who elected Lyndon Johnson’s vote-buying Welfare state ? Who took us off the gold standard and “opened up China”? Who led the takeover of medicine with its absurd price increases and plummeting quality of service ? Who received social security payments without paying in vs who paid in their entire working career only to receive devalued dollars ? Who “elected” the mental midget creepy joe ? If you complete the assignment you will discover that boomers were involved in very little of these massive fuck-ups, but were lucky enough to be born before the chickens came home to roost
Except the government does Not own the printing press, they merely borrow debt based fiat from the Fed at interest
Read your definition. As I said, an alumnus, or alumni, is always qualified by the institution in question. One is not simply an alumnus, one is an alumnus of something. Wouldn't want you to be constrained by English or Latin, though ironically those are the bases for the educational system you probably think we have long abandoned, while your point of view of self assured ignorance is right in li e with current norms.Your sandbox logic is best used on your contemporaries.
I'm not constrained by the box you've bought.
Alumni vs. Alumnus - Dictionary.com
Do you know if you’re an alumnus or an alumni? Alumni actually is the plural form of alumnus, a Latin word that means a graduate or former student of an educational institution. Although alumnus usually refers to academics, it can also mean a former employee, associate, or member of any...
R
It takes some pretty twisted logic to argue that having more knowledge is better than less, but that is basically your point. I guess knowing less allows you never to question your beliefs.
I was thinking negative effects from continuing policies that keep people from reentering the work force and atrocious energy policy. I have no idea how provocative rhetoric can influence consumer behavior.
Other than the fact that they indicate a company has no better use for capital than inflating its own stock price.
If you're GM right now, do you want that $15B back in your bank account so that you can invest in new technology and physical capital? If you're Boeing, do you take that $43B and use it to actually do real engineering?
Not sure this is a particularly liberal perspective, but I look forward to finding out differently.
I don't know about you, but when I hear that we're maybe heading towards civil war, I look to upsize my house and buy a new $70,000 pickup. The rest of the American public clearly agrees.
It's generally part of an overall capital allocation scheme. It doesn't preclude other investments.
But the rationale is that if a company thinks it's own stock is undervalued, being quite expert 8n their own operation it is reasonable to purchase that stock at market price. The money just goes to owners who disagree with the sentiment. Dividends would be a similar use, but blanket rather than only to those who prefer the cash. Without sellers there are no buyers, so in many ways buybacks are more fair to current stockholders.
But most fundamentally, if you think of it as a two person corner store. Half owned by each. One guy thinks it is worth 100k, the other guy thinks it is worth 200k. So the 200k guy offers the 100k guy 75k from the bank account to buy his half, valuing the business at 150k. Now the business owns half the business and the one original shareholder owns half, so he owns all and believes he just made out while the seller believes the same. There is no big scandal here. I guess they could have bought the laundromat down the street, but as long as they both chose I am good with that.
You are right that it.would be better if there were tons of new investment opportunities out there, but other than tax inefficiencies, that money from the proceed.sales of buybacks is just as able to make those investments as is.the.company.
It tends to be a left wing opinion both because left wing politicians spew it a lot, and because it is fundamentally based in zero sum economics which I see as decidedly left, though as the right becomes more populist and less rational, it has crept over.
20 yrs on Wall St /hedge fund and No Bias ? Apolitical ? Ever wonder why a bevy of physicist are employed to shotgun funds into the market avoiding detection ? So you are a value investor at heart ? Imagine the cognitive dissonance. What is you view of Blackrock buying up whole neighborhoods, then renting them out for a good deal more than the mortgage payment , with cheap money ? The packaging of subprime and dumping it on Greece bring a grin ? Pretty sure you have stories to tell.
Not.only at heart but in practice. Sure I understand high speed trading strategies, but really no better than a lot of people who are better mathematicians than I am. It's a mistake to think that everything is done one way, or that there is.even much mixing. But I generally see a lot of big market moving phenomena.as shaking out opportunities for what I do. I don't begrudge them their succeses or much care when they fail, so not much cognitive dissonance at all.
As to Blackrock, not a big fan of cheap money, but it sounds like a great arbitrage opportunity for them. Probably smart and it could end up facilitating market liquidity when needed at some point in the future.
I missed the subprime debacle on the way up and down. Again, not my bag. I was actually spending a lot of work time in southern Italy during the Greece shit, so I remember that well. Again, not my bag. I don't think I've ever bought or sold a bond of any kind. If I have it was back in the day when there were mispriced convertibles. Not high speed.shit.
I have lots of stories. And I am not apolitical. I just think the wall st main St divide is 5% truth 95% bullshit. Maybe 10-90.
You seem very interested in me lol.
Sure, the winners write history for the most part, but that is changing post Zinn. By we, I meant those who come from the English enlightenment tradition believe that we (people) write history, as opposed to all other schools of thought that tend to believe that history is its own force acting on people to determine what they do.
Procure all the credit cards you can get.... Turn credit into commodities.... Set up two CONEX's off the Grid with a load bearing roof and watch the show. Great idea.... I think the Wall Street Barron's have already made that move, using other people's money.
Attachments
Smoke and mirrors, Boogey Man under the bed, nothing to see here - move along, circle back to that........
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday considerably raised its expectations for inflation this year and brought forward the time frame on when it will next raise interest rates.
However, the central bank gave no indication as to when it will begin cutting back on its aggressive bond-buying program, leaving investors to watch for Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference on clues about when tapering will begin.
www.cnbc.com
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday considerably raised its expectations for inflation this year and brought forward the time frame on when it will next raise interest rates.
However, the central bank gave no indication as to when it will begin cutting back on its aggressive bond-buying program, leaving investors to watch for Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference on clues about when tapering will begin.
The Fed moves up its timeline for rate hikes as inflation rises
However, the central bank gave no indication as to when it will begin cutting back on its aggressive bond-buying program.
www.cnbc.com
A reasonable curiosity that I also share due to the volume of posting you do.
Most days, the forum shows theLBC, pmclaine and Choid as the top three posters. theLBC is mostly reposting stuff on the appropriately named PortaJohn, and pmclaine sticks to a more narrow set of threads. You seem spread out to more threads than the other two. Or so it seems from my perspective as I find you posting in many of the same threads I like to follow.
You take the time to write well thought out responses even to random shit being thrown your way. It is a level of persistence and accommodation that has me wondering how you have the time. I applaud the perseverance even when I do not necessarily agree with all that you write.
Sometimes I wonder if you spend so much time posting on this site in literary combat with opposing opinions to merely to sharpen your wit and written response skill.
This is not a critique. If anything, I hope it will provide me greater chances to win a couple of bucks back as I lack confidence that our current outstanding bet will go in my favor.
Ha. I'm newly, partially retired, and I am used to being on a computer for 10 hours a day. I find I can only spend so much time in the gym, the reloading room or shooting, and somebody is always wrong on the internet!
I do like to argue, though. And it is one of the things I miss most in having partners in a firm. This is probably not the healthiest outlet for it, but it allows me to learn more about reloading at the same time.
I also refuse to Twitter and Facebook, and despite the fact that people here differ with me on just about everything, I enjoy it.
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