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Inflation.......... ?
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
How do you know they're young, and what is the relevancy of their age to your argument? Most people in the workforce are young...compared to you.
This attitude is why your kids don't come to see you, and your grandkids keep their earbuds in and play on their phones when they're forced to be around you. This is why you've been placed on a societal garbage pile. This is why you keep doubling down with your doomsday predictions dreaming of your "I told you so" moment.
Inflation rebounding, so FED is doubling down... on doing nothing. Wait and see... stagflation is lovely this time of year.
The market rebounded because Powell did nothing. For him to do "anything" would be out of character for the FED and the market would have sold off until they processed the information. Jerome is "Against the Box".
Here is a video of what I was talking about. The first 5 minutes are the summary, the rest are the details and whys. Although he doesn't talk about the housing implications, its not hard to understand how the current situation affects it.
At this stage of the game, 2% inflation is unacceptable. Inflation has eaten away at the middle class. Time to roll back the clock and bring in deflation to give American's some breathing room.
Fed's Williams says 2% inflation target 'critical'
"Job Data" is Government generated numbers. I don't trust Government numbers. Is the market being "played" ?
Wall St ends sharply higher, jobs data strengthens case for rate cuts
Retailers jacked up prices and squeezed consumers. They might have just blinked
Retailers are feeling jittery. Consumers aren’t shopping like they used to. In a game of chicken between stores and shoppers, it’s the stores that appear to be yielding first, by dropping prices on thousands of products.
Let’s get this deflation party started.
“The challenge for retailers now is to shake consumers out of that frugal mindset.”Retailers jacked up prices and squeezed consumers. They might have just blinked
Retailers are feeling jittery. Consumers aren’t shopping like they used to. In a game of chicken between stores and shoppers, it’s the stores that appear to be yielding first, by dropping prices on thousands of products.www.yahoo.com
Let’s get this deflation party started.
View attachment 8412052
Good luck with that. The group think hive mind is at work. The retailers are the ones that must adjust to what the market says. The consumer is the one who says yes or no, and consumers are saying no as a herd.
If buying has slowed down during tax return season then you know shit is tight. I’ll probably be able to start deploying cash this year around September, unless national average gas price goes higher. Then deals will come sooner.
I also expect to be buying gold under $1,900 per ounce in the next 6 months. I’m not going to short it, but that’s where I see it.
I hope your indicators are correct. Gold @ anything under $2k would mean the buying power of the USD has improved.
I actually see it quite cheaper than $1,900, but that’s after many people liquidate. A lot of the people buying gold today aren’t the type that can just stand having $4,000-$20,000 sitting in a safe, meaning they won’t be able to cover their obligations without selling their gold.
That’s just my thought on it. Gold is more a luxury item to them while that are financially stable and can still make their car, house, HELOC, and credit card payments.
True, but I’m planning to buy from locals for quick cash in a 3 state area.
The American people dumping gold will have no effect on the international markets.
A drop in the ocean.
no way spending or inflation subsides going into spending season with nice weather
just got from Florida where the planes were full, hotels full, etc etc etc
just got from Florida where the planes were full, hotels full, etc etc etc
I think it’ll hit hard toward the end of summer. I’ll be looking for deals starting in September when everyone is trying to get money for krimuss.
Deflation is coming.
I hope so but I tend to think longer term. I think the Fed needs to raise another .50bps to really knock it out or start the fast slide. we've got sticky inflation and we're not getting to 2% target
I think the fed wants 20% inflation over 2% deflation. I look at the loans going out today, and 5-10 years ago they would have been denied. Today they just give loans to bad borrowers at 21%.
The Fed has declined raising rates further. Stagflation seems to be in the cards for at least a little while. But 3Q - 4Q gets spicy. By 2025 everyone better have everything tied down tight. Bankruptcies and defaults are picking up so the malinvestment is being pushed out, and the Fed isn’t going to do a major drop in rates nor are the banks going to increase lending at those reduced rates. So here we go.
Jerome's plan all along has been to "Let inflation, lick inflation"........... That is a long and painful operation but it let's the FED come out without being the "bad guys"... Just the "dumb guy's". The plan was never to have a soft landing. Just let the airplane circle the airport while all the government people build a few more years pension. The plane is almost out of fuel.
Interest rates on federal student loans may increase by 1 percentage point: ‘A fairly big jump,’ expert says
6.5, 8, and 9% - ouch. Hope you are studying something that is going to lead to a massive payday . . .
Welcome to reality.
Just 4% of today’s retirees said they are “living the dream,” according to a new survey from asset management company Schroders.
And just as many — 4% — said they are “living the nightmare.”
Most of the respondents fall somewhere in between — 44% said they are comfortable; 34% said they are not great, but not bad; and 15% said they are struggling, according to the rounded results.
“The real picture of retirement is far from the dreams Americans had hoped and worked so hard for,” said Deb Boyden, head of U.S. defined contribution at Schroders.
Just 4% of today’s retirees said they are “living the dream,” according to a new survey from asset management company Schroders.
And just as many — 4% — said they are “living the nightmare.”
Most of the respondents fall somewhere in between — 44% said they are comfortable; 34% said they are not great, but not bad; and 15% said they are struggling, according to the rounded results.
“The real picture of retirement is far from the dreams Americans had hoped and worked so hard for,” said Deb Boyden, head of U.S. defined contribution at Schroders.
I comment frequently about the Roth IRA and how the US Government, in it's greed, changed the rules once a person get's started saving.
From memory, seems the original rules for the Roth were all on about 1/2 of a page.
People were beating the market with their Roth. The Government started changing rules and taxing what was supposed to be non-taxable.
Here is an article that takes a lawyer and CPA to figure out.
If you would have started burying silver dimes in your back yard 35 years ago, rather than starting a Roth... You would have a nice retirement fund that the Government knew nothing about.
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www.investopedia.com
From memory, seems the original rules for the Roth were all on about 1/2 of a page.
People were beating the market with their Roth. The Government started changing rules and taxing what was supposed to be non-taxable.
Here is an article that takes a lawyer and CPA to figure out.
If you would have started burying silver dimes in your back yard 35 years ago, rather than starting a Roth... You would have a nice retirement fund that the Government knew nothing about.
When Did Roth IRAs Start?
Roth IRAs were first conceived in 1989, but history shows they didn’t become a reality until Congress passed legislation to establish it in 1997.
Not sure what the reasoning is for this. I know the economy is really bad but I see a lot of new cars on the road. Houses seem to be selling pretty quick. Got a friend who has a business and he is doing really well. So maybe there is some hope?
Nope. Go look at loan and credit default rates, and pay trends at a minimum.
Hope is not a plan.
The average American family (2 working adults) can not afford a car note of more than $400.
The economy, today, is not too bad.
What is bad is the National Debt and the amount of Credit Card debt American's have.
Inflation is a long way from being in check. Fed's want 2% inflation, American's need deflation to regain financial footing.
Buying a house is now an impossibility for young people.
Selling a house with a 3% mortgage and relocating and having to pay a 7% mortgage is keeping people anchored in their old home.
What kind of business does your friend have? What do you do for a living ?
Your question is actually a very good and timely one.
With this current economy being so bad, not sure what to think. So could it be said since our last president raised the national debt almost 8 trillion dollars and people were being paid not to work, this laid the foundation for some of the problems we are having now? People were at home with no direction so that's why online purchasing went through the roof adding to the credit card debt?
That can be argued to a a degree with some legitimacy, but the reality is that the individual consumer bears as much of the blame as anyone. Spending beyond one's means (business or individual entity) is a micro level detail, but when everyone does it the issue becomes a macro event. Then when interest rates go up, those who are overexposed to debt get caught short. When one becomes maxed out demand drops due to the fact there is no longer the capacity to take on more debt to keep the ball rolling. What we are witnessing is demand destruction and the flushing on malinvestment. Its somewhat of a natural cycle of ups and downs, booms and busts. Those who can't see beyond the horizon are the ones who pay the price at an individual level, but many lose their jobs because businesses acted just as imprudently when interest rates were low.
This will get into opinion some, but ALL administrations across multiple decades have spent like drunken sailors. It isn't just Trump. Biden has been spending money on colossally stupid shit. Their predecessors were bad too. So that's part of it. Then there is the bad lending practices the banks have engaged in along with the poor financial choices of individuals and businesses.
The next shoe to drop is that the debt of country is so high that taxes have no option but to go up to pay it. We are in a debt trap as a country and many citizens have put themselves in the same condition. Those things combined will create a severe decrease in demand.
Bashing on the last administration is myopic. Everyone is responsible, and the mirror will show each of us at least one of the players.
We lost the fox a long time ago. It all started going downhill when we lost what is in this very short video. We are now living with the consequences of losing our original values and identity and ALLOWING it be replaced with selfishness and greed at all levels of society.
I don't know how we get back to that point without severe pain on multiple fronts to recalibrate what we value as a collective society.
botting much? damn they are getting better
ahh.. TDS with a nice, bashing ,, and a deflection to back up his buddy Joe, "bashing any administration could be considered myopic"
from the botter
- people, were being paid, because the Gov shut down businesses. Hey Bot, did you have rent to pay or kids to feed?
Does bot remember when church members were getting arrested, practicing their faith, due to covid lock downs? Americans do.
Does Bot remember when business owners were getting arrested because of over reach by the Governors? Americans do
Does BOT remember when a NY Gov forced those with COVID into nursing homes ? Nursing homes, the MOST AT RISK population, causing MORE deaths.. Americans do
$3.6 trillion came from COVID relief laws
$2.5 trillion from tax cut laws.. BOTs and Democrats HATE tax cuts.
A key point that Biden glossed over is that much of the current federal debt stems from mandatory payments, such as those for Social Security and Medicare. These began spiking when the baby boom generation started drawing heavily from these programs around 2010. Not coincidentally, that’s when the federal debt began accelerating.
and if you forgot BOT.. look up Covid.. you know.. that thing
Similarly, the biggest single spikes in the federal debt came from the initial rounds of coronavirus relief legislation in 2020. Trump signed them, but they passed with broad bipartisan support.
NO COVID spending under O
NO FORCED Business shutdown under Joe, Just $$ going to Ukraine, and bringing (and spending) illegals to USA to vote for the BOT party
Next BOT will bring up, how Joe had all that great Job creation, you know, the job creation that happened when the GOV finally allowed people to open their businesses again
Here bot
"Strictly speaking, former President Barack Obama accumulated more debt than Trump."
but, you know.. facts and shit always get in the way of BOTS and Democrats.
Next you'll be quoting Joe's lies, about how this is the best economy ever.
www.politifact.com
Hey BOT, what was your 'job', what were you doing when COVID hit?
ahh.. TDS with a nice, bashing ,, and a deflection to back up his buddy Joe, "bashing any administration could be considered myopic"
from the botter
- the shortcomings of the last administration
- So could it be said since our last president raised the national debt almost 8 trillion dollars and people were being paid not to work, this laid the foundation for some of the problems we are having now?
- people, were being paid, because the Gov shut down businesses. Hey Bot, did you have rent to pay or kids to feed?
Does bot remember when church members were getting arrested, practicing their faith, due to covid lock downs? Americans do.
Does Bot remember when business owners were getting arrested because of over reach by the Governors? Americans do
Does BOT remember when a NY Gov forced those with COVID into nursing homes ? Nursing homes, the MOST AT RISK population, causing MORE deaths.. Americans do
$3.6 trillion came from COVID relief laws
$2.5 trillion from tax cut laws.. BOTs and Democrats HATE tax cuts.
A key point that Biden glossed over is that much of the current federal debt stems from mandatory payments, such as those for Social Security and Medicare. These began spiking when the baby boom generation started drawing heavily from these programs around 2010. Not coincidentally, that’s when the federal debt began accelerating.
and if you forgot BOT.. look up Covid.. you know.. that thing
Similarly, the biggest single spikes in the federal debt came from the initial rounds of coronavirus relief legislation in 2020. Trump signed them, but they passed with broad bipartisan support.
NO COVID spending under O
NO FORCED Business shutdown under Joe, Just $$ going to Ukraine, and bringing (and spending) illegals to USA to vote for the BOT party
Next BOT will bring up, how Joe had all that great Job creation, you know, the job creation that happened when the GOV finally allowed people to open their businesses again
Here bot
"Strictly speaking, former President Barack Obama accumulated more debt than Trump."
but, you know.. facts and shit always get in the way of BOTS and Democrats.
Next you'll be quoting Joe's lies, about how this is the best economy ever.
Did Trump rack up more debt than any other president?
As White House and congressional Republican negotiators met to hammer out a way to raise the nation’s debt limit, House
www.politifact.com
I broke it down this way before I bought some SPY calls this morning: Joblessness is bullish because more people with less money is good for inflation=Retards think Fed will cut the rate 700 times in the next 3 days.
It worked. I rarely every play options, but the opportunity for quick money was too easy to leave alone.
It worked. I rarely every play options, but the opportunity for quick money was too easy to leave alone.
It is easy for a young person to place blame on a previous President. The fact is the purchasing power of the USD has been declining since America moved away from the "Gold Standard". Same thing happened to the Roman Empire, just at a much slower pace.
botting much? damn they are getting better
ahh.. TDS with a nice, bashing ,, and a deflection to back up his buddy Joe, "bashing any administration could be considered myopic"
from the botter
now some facts to cull out bot's 1/2 truths
- the shortcomings of the last administration
- So could it be said since our last president raised the national debt almost 8 trillion dollars and people were being paid not to work, this laid the foundation for some of the problems we are having now?
- people, were being paid, because the Gov shut down businesses. Hey Bot, did you have rent to pay or kids to feed?
Does bot remember when church members were getting arrested, practicing their faith, due to covid lock downs? Americans do.
Does Bot remember when business owners were getting arrested because of over reach by the Governors? Americans do
Does BOT remember when a NY Gov forced those with COVID into nursing homes ? Nursing homes, the MOST AT RISK population, causing MORE deaths.. Americans do
$3.6 trillion came from COVID relief laws
$2.5 trillion from tax cut laws.. BOTs and Democrats HATE tax cuts.
View attachment 8414268
A key point that Biden glossed over is that much of the current federal debt stems from mandatory payments, such as those for Social Security and Medicare. These began spiking when the baby boom generation started drawing heavily from these programs around 2010. Not coincidentally, that’s when the federal debt began accelerating.
and if you forgot BOT.. look up Covid.. you know.. that thing
Similarly, the biggest single spikes in the federal debt came from the initial rounds of coronavirus relief legislation in 2020. Trump signed them, but they passed with broad bipartisan support.
View attachment 8414271
NO COVID spending under O
NO FORCED Business shutdown under Joe, Just $$ going to Ukraine, and bringing (and spending) illegals to USA to vote for the BOT party
Next BOT will bring up, how Joe had all that great Job creation, you know, the job creation that happened when the GOV finally allowed people to open their businesses again
Here bot
"Strictly speaking, former President Barack Obama accumulated more debt than Trump."
but, you know.. facts and shit always get in the way of BOTS and Democrats.
Next you'll be quoting Joe's lies, about how this is the best economy ever.
View attachment 8414283
Hey BOT, what was your 'job', what were you doing when COVID hit?Did Trump rack up more debt than any other president?
As White House and congressional Republican negotiators met to hammer out a way to raise the nation’s debt limit, House
Trump v. Obama - debt
While it is technically true that the amount added to the debt under President Obama is higher than the debt added under President Trump (I say "under," but it is debatable that all debt can be laid at a President's feet when Congress controls spending), what that overlooks is that Obama had two terms, eight years, while Trump had only four.
If he is re-elected, then we can compare again in 2029 by adding the two terms together and then compare it to the debt added under Obama's two terms. That will be a fairer comparison.
To account for inflation and the economy, however, an even fairer comparison would be debt to GDP ratio. By that metric, WWII is the previous high water mark (see the 120% line?) - but we are breaking through that now with no war whatsoever. Just lots of social security and medicare and medicaid.
Debt to GDP ratio:
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Now take out the 3.6 trillion from COVID (the anomaly) and do it over.
Unlike O and Joe who spend our money promoting wars...
And that is the "illusion" being used to promote the "strong USD" that is nothing more than propaganda.
Debt to GDP ratio was as high or higher when Trump was President as it was when Obama was president, and it was trending upward in 2019 before Covid.
To be clear, maybe I am the only one in this discussion who thinks presidents do not control the debt or the GDP or the budget, but you keep defending whomever you wish. I am just pointing out the numbers. I do not say Obama or Trump were at fault for either (well, not totally, I mean, I guess they could have vetoed budgets put before them that were higher than the previous budget, lol, but neither Democrat nor Republican presidents want to do that).
i'm no commie and people need to pay them back but my issues with student loans (I paid mine) is that the interest is way too high for 'gov't backed loans. On that single point, I agree the rates should be lower on them
So they should not be based on federal treasury auctions? What do you suggest as a benchmark, instead? Are you not concerned about unintended consequences when you distort the market too far?
And what is too high? We are not even back to the student loan interest rates from the 1990s, which were as high at 8.25% in 1995-96. The rate is expected to go up to 6.5% soon, which would be a 16 year high, not an all time high or some sort of record. It is almost more of a normalization.
And what is too high? We are not even back to the student loan interest rates from the 1990s, which were as high at 8.25% in 1995-96. The rate is expected to go up to 6.5% soon, which would be a 16 year high, not an all time high or some sort of record. It is almost more of a normalization.
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