Please take time to read the rest of Andrei’s analysis.
Just because the Russians are pulling punches to avoid killing civilians and destroying infrastructure key for civilian survival does not mean they are ignoring the threat. For example, Andrei notes that the Russians waited for the towed howitzers to get into position before blowing them up.
I really am shocked that Scott got this so wrong. First, the US and NATO are not sending the most advanced, most sophisticated equipment to Ukraine. The M-777 howitzer, for example, is a good piece of towed artillery (it came into service in 2005). There is the problem–it requires a vehicle to tow it into position. When it is fired it must be towed to a new location to minimize the risk of counter battery fire. America and NATO have more advanced howitzers that are self-propelled. They are not sending those to Ukraine.
The equipment sent to Ukraine is basically surplus that the United States and NATO are not using. I believe in following the money. I think this is just a convenient pretext to get rid of old weapons systems in order to justify new spending on the latest, greatest.
Second, Russia has made and continues to make missile strikes on bases and weapons depots. It is not an occasional strike, it is repeated and regular. Remember
Yavoriv?
This was not a one off attack. The Russians have struck all across Ukraine. I noted in my last piece that
Desna, a Ukrainian base, was one of the latest targets. The Russians also hit Lviv, Vinnitsa and Sumy. There is no sign the Russians are running out of missiles, rockets and artillery rounds.
Third, who the hell is going to operate the stuff the west is sending? We are not seeing hordes of Ukrainian young men lining up to join the national defense. Instead, Ukrainian authorities are rounding up middle aged guys forcing them into the army. Many of these “new” recruits are on video complaining that they are nothing more than cattle fodder. Then there is the training component. Teaching a soldier how to operate and maintain a new weapon system is not a one day affair. This further complicates Ukraine’s ability to stay in the fight.
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