The Wagner Group has run out of criminal prisoner recruits to stop bullets.
Bakhmut on the Brink as Wagner Group Suffers Heavy Losses Across Region—ISW
Story by Isabel van Brugen • 13h ago
The battle for Bakhmut appears to be on the brink as mercenary unit, the Wagner Group, has suffered heavy losses in the city in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Soldiers of a Ukrainian intelligence battalion drive to the frontline on December 28, 2022 in Bakhmut, Ukraine. A large swath of Donetsk region has been held by Russian-backed separatists since 2014.© Pierre Crom
The U.S.-based think tank
said Wednesday that there are several indicators that support the assessment that Russian forces and members of the Wagner Group around
Bakhmut have culminated—the point at which an attacking military force can no longer continue its advance.
On December 24, the ISW had said that the Wagner Group's reported heavy losses in the area in recent weeks had likely "strained" Russian forces' current operational capabilities in Bakhmut.
Russian forces in the region have been led by members of the mercenary unit, the Wagner Group, founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ally of Russian President
Vladimir Putin.
In its daily assessment of the Ukraine war, the ISW said Russian airborne forces (VDV) have reportedly been augmenting Wagner Group operations around Bakhmut, citing a Russian source that reported that Wagner and VDV elements conducted
joint operations in the city on Tuesday.
"The report, if true, marks an inflection given that the Wagner Group has been conducting information operations to assert that the Wagner Group forces exclusively are operating in Bakhmut," the think tank wrote. "The conventional Russian military supporting Wagner Group elements in Bakhmut—after Wagner took efforts to emphasize it exclusively is responsible for the Bakhmut sector—would be consistent with indicators for the Wagner Group forces' culmination."
The ISW said it has previously assessed that Wagner Group forces were mainly serving an attritional role around Bakhmut and had therefore likely become degraded to a "near-debilitating extent" and "needed reinforcement from more conventional Russian elements."
"High rates of attrition amongst the forces responsible for the offensive on Bakhmut may expedite the culmination unless notable numbers of regular Russian military units are sent to sustain the offensive and delay or avert its culmination," it concluded.
Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky had said that the intensifying battle for Bakhmut was taking a heavy toll on Russian forces while remaining the "hottest spot" in the war.