Ukraine has surprised us all. They have definitely surprised the Russian forces. They've surprised the EU, who smugly thought that Russia would roll through before they 'could do anything to help'. They've surprised the US and pretty much everyone in not relying on them in order to fight back, let alone effectively. They've also surprised me in that, a country known to basically be the most corrupt money laundering operation in the world, actually used more of that money than I would have thought, to actually buy weapons and equipment as opposed to Estonian hookers and gaudy fucking yachts with golden toilets or something.
Will agree with this.
What it seems like has happened so far:
1. Russia attempts (in retrospect) bizarre long shot consisting of:
- Initial PGM strike campaign to neutralize Ukrainian IAD, degrade military facilities, disrupt troop movement
- Three "fronts" consisting of multiple axes of advance to seize key towns/infrastructure/road junctions
- High risk/high payoff coup de main to Kiev
It seems they believed they could unseat the Ukrainian regime and cause the Ukrainian MOD to collapse "on the cheap" by creating the perception of rapid advances and an untenable situation, but only doing it with a proportionally tiny part of russian combat power. This going-in plan sort of makes sense (low force committment; low collateral damage/casualties, rely on 'cognitive' destabilization) given Russia's initial political objectives in this conflict.
2. Ukraine exceeds expectations:
- Gov't, MOD do not collapse, show impressive resolve. MOD may be more disrupted/degraded than is apparent.
- Ukraine resists (somewhat effectively) the small unit actions in the Northwest and East. Probably losing ground rapidly in the South. Russian advanced formations did not expect to take a punch.
- Ukraine is absolutely dominating the information environment
3. Russia reacting to murphy:
- Expected it to be over by now
- Has sustained unexpected casualties. Almost certainly not as high as reporting, but still there.
- Did not expect the full extent of sanctions; expected to control the narrative better than it has
- Conflict is unpopular, both at soldier level and at home
What's happening?
- Looks like doubling down on the initial plan and feeding more into it- mercenaries and chechens being imported to handle the rough work in the cities to keep the published casualty lists low
- The Russian mil is still not fully committed, at all. Tactical air seems to be sitting it out, as do the bulk of the BTGs.
- Above may be changing, can only double down on a failed plan for so long before either backing down or escalating
It will get a lot worse if this escalates and the Rus mil is committed fully. Russian mil is foremost a fires army, more than anyone else on the planet. Maneuver is not great, and defense is not great up close, but they can lay down a lot of pain at distance. If this goes heavy metal and they have to fight as they are manned/trained/equipped, it means removing grid squares. This could get uglier before it gets better.