Is this ammo/primer/gun thing the “New Normal” or is this just the same ol shit❓

Buy low sell high?

  • Buy Cheap Stack Deep

    Votes: 56 82.4%
  • Sell it at the peak

    Votes: 12 17.6%

  • Total voters
    68
Jesus christ, yeah let's talk inflation dumbass. wtf is wrong with you. We wont see hyperinflation for another 7-10yrs.

Doc
LOL .... in 2030, after economic collapse and hyper inflation the daily norm ... I will then trade you 25 rounds .22lr, for a 1/2 gallon of milk .
.
 
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I'm always amazed with the folks that quote the Obama bullshit about ammo prices and the lack of gun stuff...we were *ALL* so for sure certain that we'd have our guns confiscated and be fucked that we panicked and bought everything we could hoard (kinda like right now) and we fucked ourselves and it never happened.

I got more gun rights under Obama than I did with Trump. Not that I think Obama was all that and a bag of chips but my point is that we gunners fuck ourselves repeatedly by pushing the panic button and never seem to learn that we need to be calm and professional about gun stuff. We were terrified of Obama and hoarded all ammunition and supplies because "The Smart Guys" told US we'd be saying goodbye to our firearms...didn't happen. And now we are all hoarding ammunition and all things gun because we think Biden and Company are going to do the same thing *PLUS* because of the riots and political insurrection millions of folks who never wanted a gun have been persuaded to buy a gun they cannot feed and have no ability to operate.

We are our own worst enemy, US gunners. I am amazed that gun forum aficionados all think we have our fingers on the pulse of American Gun Owners and the fact is that we are panicky children without a clue of where this is going or what to do about it. We have fucked ourselves repeatedly and we are doing it again.

VooDoo
 
I'm always amazed with the folks that quote the Obama bullshit about ammo prices and the lack of gun stuff...we were *ALL* so for sure certain that we'd have our guns confiscated and be fucked that we panicked and bought everything we could hoard (kinda like right now) and we fucked ourselves and it never happened.

I got more gun rights under Obama than I did with Trump. Not that I think Obama was all that and a bag of chips but my point is that we gunners fuck ourselves repeatedly by pushing the panic button and never seem to learn that we need to be calm and professional about gun stuff. We were terrified of Obama and hoarded all ammunition and supplies because "The Smart Guys" told US we'd be saying goodbye to our firearms...didn't happen. And now we are all hoarding ammunition and all things gun because we think Biden and Company are going to do the same thing *PLUS* because of the riots and political insurrection millions of folks who never wanted a gun have been persuaded to buy a gun they cannot feed and have no ability to operate.

We are our own worst enemy, US gunners. I am amazed that gun forum aficionados all think we have our fingers on the pulse of American Gun Owners and the fact is that we are panicky children without a clue of where this is going or what to do about it. We have fucked ourselves repeatedly and we are doing it again.

VooDoo
100% agree. I guarantee you that 90 percent of the scalpers on Gunbroker don't even own a gun or reloading equipment.

Why people are paying these prices I will never know.

If you pay those prices you are part of the gun issue at hand. Plain and fucking simple. I haven't and wont gouge anyone for the ability to exercise your 2nd amendment rights.

People that do gouge, in my book and opinion worse then democrats.

Am I going to sell off what I have stocked up on....nope.

Doc
 
If you have the ability to make a profit and choose to sell to someone you have never met at a loss, or at breakeven prices, I just don't understand.

Friends and family, different story. They buy for my investment or close. Everyone else, it is NOT my fault that people didn't plan ahead. If they want me to assist with that now, then they can pay the fiddler.

I am not actively marketing ammo, but if someone seeks me out. I will sell.
 
i just wanna see all these folks who are of condemning folks for not selling at their purchase cost, sell their excess for their purchase cost.

talk is cheap. actions speak louder than words. now, i have seen forum members step up and reach out other folks and try to help. those are not the people i’m talking about. you know who you are.
 
i just wanna see all these folks who are of condemning folks for not selling at their purchase cost, sell their excess for their purchase cost.

talk is cheap. actions speak louder than words. now, i have seen forum members step up and reach out other folks and try to help. those are not the people i’m talking about. you know who you are.

Lets see if those folks would sell me their house for what they owe on it or for the selling price when they bought it 30 years ago. I can put any price on anything I want to sell. If the buyer contacts me and is okay with the price, where is the foul. Both parties agree to the purchase price. 3rd parties can keep out of the transaction. Entirely.
 
Edit: i mis-spoke the $160.00 case was in 2004, it would have been $260.00 per case right before Obama in 2007, still never came back down.

To compare Apples to Apples I pulled any invoices I had from the same supplier, this is from 2004 to 2017 because I haven’t bought any since. ($160.00 was for a 1,000 round case)

Federal American Eagle .45 ACP 230 FMJ
2004 $.16 per round
2005 $.18 per round
2006 None
2007 $.26 per round
2008-2014 None
2015 $.34 per round
2016 $.34 per round
2017 $.35 per round
2018-2020 None
2021 None but $.59 per round last time it was available

So as you can see the price never came back down even after Trump took office.

This is the data im trying to focus on.

I appreciate that.
 
Lets see if those folks would sell me their house for what they owe on it or for the selling price when they bought it 30 years ago
A better example would be selling their house at current market value vs a year or five years ago. A friend of mine bought a house about a year ago put in back on the market last week and with in a day had an offer 100k more than he paid for it when he bought it last year.
 
Edit: i mis-spoke the $160.00 case was in 2004, it would have been $260.00 per case right before Obama in 2007, still never came back down.

To compare Apples to Apples I pulled any invoices I had from the same supplier, this is from 2004 to 2017 because I haven’t bought any since. ($160.00 was for a 1,000 round case)

Federal American Eagle .45 ACP 230 FMJ
2004 $.16 per round
2005 $.18 per round
2006 None
2007 $.26 per round
2008-2014 None
2015 $.34 per round
2016 $.34 per round
2017 $.35 per round
2018-2020 None
2021 None but $.59 per round last time it was available

So as you can see the price never came back down even after Trump took office.

Interesting data. It's almost like inflation is a real thing.

Trying to correlate the price of a finished good with the precise cost of its constituent inputs is an exercise in futility, and I won't try to do it here. Instead, I'll simply note that a pound of copper averaged $1.28 back in 2004 and $2.80 in 2020 (what happened in between those years is fairly messy, but the trendline generally goes up as it goes to the right).

Also note that I'm not trying to claim that the recent spike in prices is driven by commodity prices, but simply that this was one factor in stacking a bunch of dry tinder in anticipation of a spark.
 
A better example would be selling their house at current market value vs a year or five years ago. A friend of mine bought a house about a year ago put in back on the market last week and with in a day had an offer 100k more than he paid for it when he bought it last year.

That's great and all, but just like selling ammo - if it costs me just as much to replace tomorrow what I sold today, have I really ”made money", or has something else occurred?
 
That's great and all, but just like selling ammo - if it costs me just as much to replace tomorrow what I sold today, have I really ”made money", or has something else occurred?

The thought process is that you don't need to replace, or that you would wait to replace until prices return to lower levels. I haven't personally sold anything that requires immediate replacement.
 
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Depending on the legislation that goes down in the next year or two, the best case scenario in my mind is things start becoming available again in mid 2022 with a return to 'normalcy' probably in 2023-2024. Ammo companies are back ordered for 1.5+ years if they stopped taking orders today.

Toss in attempts to serialize bullets, AWB pt. 2, or some stupid shit like that and all bets are off.

Places like CTD have every right to sell stuff for whatever price they want within the law. You don't have to buy it and I know of at least one company that cut them off the distribution list for gouging. Will I ever shop at CTD ever again in my life? No. Decided that in 2012 with $149.99 AR magazines. No point in bitching about it though. The gunbroker thing with primers is kind of funny to me because you have to sign up for it. Can't blame anyone but yourself for putting in the bid. Good show anyway.

Buy at least enough for your current barrel when you buy the barrel...
 
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Is this another Ammo component timeline or price thread...holy shit there are 1-2 new ones a day.

Either use search function or hopefully ban cat comes along and consolidates then locks them for view only
 
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The thought process is that you don't need to replace, or that you would wait to replace until prices return to lower levels. I haven't personally sold anything that requires immediate replacement.
This it’s kind of like playing the stock market on a smaller scale......lol A lot of people that are selling some of their supply right now are betting that the prices will go back down in the future.....If they don’t well you’re right nothing has occurred except now you lost ammo and you have to replace it.

As far as my example with my friend and his house yes if he was buying another house for the same price he just sold this house for he hasn’t made any money but in his case he’s buying a house from his parents and getting it for way less than what he just sold his house for.
 
Is this another Ammo component timeline or price thread...holy shit there are 1-2 new ones a day.

Either use search function or hopefully ban cat comes along and consolidates then locks them for view only
Hey Karen don’t you have a neighbor to go report something on.....I think their grass may be a millimeter too high why don’t you go check that out!
 
50 million new guns sold since the china flu is not a small number.

It's not just the number sold; it's to whom they were sold (i.e. first-time buyers without an existing stockpile). 5-10 million new owners each looking for a couple boxes adds up to a significant number.
 
It's not just the number sold; it's to whom they were sold (i.e. first-time buyers without an existing stockpile). 5-10 million new owners each looking for a couple boxes adds up to a significant number.
One might actually get a half boner at the thought of that actually STRENGTHENING the whole 2A thing.

Hopefully manufacturers making record profits invest in the right lobbyists.
 
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we have “big pharma” as a boogey man.....why not “big ammo”...that can’t miss (pun intended). and these days, it wouldnt fucking surprise me. be careful with perspectives...it’s easy to lose your soul in one.

Big Ammo 😳🤣😂

I shouldn’t laugh. I really shouldn’t. I wish I could sit in a board meeting over at Big Ammo.
 
Big Ammo 😳🤣😂

I shouldn’t laugh. I really shouldn’t. I wish I could sit in a board meeting over at Big Ammo.

Big Ammo board meeting:

Sales & marketing: Demand is way up. Can we do anything?
CEO: Nope. Some dude on the internet named "CrabbyFootballs" said it'll take too long to increase capacity, and he seems totally credible. Next?
Purchasing: Copper prices are going up again.
CEO: What's the impact on our costs?
Accounting: Maybe a penny per round for every $1/pound increase. At the wholesale level, of course. Figure double that at the retail level.
CEO: Crank up pricing of the finished goods by 90%. Anyone else? Nope? Meeting adjourned.
 
Big Ammo board meeting:

Sales & marketing: Demand is way up. Can we do anything?
CEO: Nope. Some dude on the internet named "CrabbyFootballs" said it'll take too long to increase capacity, and he seems totally credible. Next?
Purchasing: Copper prices are going up again.
CEO: What's the impact on our costs?
Accounting: Maybe a penny per round for every $1/pound increase. At the wholesale level, of course. Figure double that at the retail level.
CEO: Crank up pricing of the finished goods by 90%. Anyone else? Nope? Meeting adjourned.
I thought there would be more war talk and discussion of plastic boolets to ease the cost of killing us with plastic packaging.

“CrabbyFootballs” has me dying. 😂🤣😂🤣😂
 
Depending on the legislation that goes down in the next year or two, the best case scenario in my mind is things start becoming available again in mid 2022 with a return to 'normalcy' probably in 2023-2024. Ammo companies are back ordered for 1.5+ years if they stopped taking orders today.

Toss in attempts to serialize bullets, AWB pt. 2, or some stupid shit like that and all bets are off.

Places like CTD have every right to sell stuff for whatever price they want within the law. You don't have to buy it and I know of at least one company that cut them off the distribution list for gouging. Will I ever shop at CTD ever again in my life? No. Decided that in 2012 with $149.99 AR magazines. No point in bitching about it though. The gunbroker thing with primers is kind of funny to me because you have to sign up for it. Can't blame anyone but yourself for putting in the bid. Good show anyway.

Buy at least enough for your current barrel when you buy the barrel...
If they start serializing bullets I'm investing in Michelin or Goodyear. Maybe also companies that produce steel wheel weights. Widespread premature tire wear from imbalanced tires might yield enough gains to offset the cost of factory projectiles that require a serial number. Make lemonade from lemons I guess.

Agreed on the barrel though... when I rebarrel next, I'm picking the cartridge based on powder availability at the time. The search for Retumbo and RL26 is like a second job. A smidge of extra performance just isn't worth it....
 
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Me watching my primer money come in.