Ko1M Results

[Sandow the Heretic]

Congratulations to Clay, Ray and David! That was some excellent shooting!

I'd like to thank our sponsors for their generous support again. We ended up with a really good prize table that all of the shooters were quite happy about. I'd also like to thank Brian Wink, Haley Hull, Randy Powell and Susan Smith for their help with scoring and monitoring impacts. Having people that can give me flexibility while scoring allows things to run faster and far smoother.

-Alex

Here are some match pics. If you want to contribute to this feel free to email me what you'd like included.

Dropbox

www.dropbox.com

 

[DocRDS]

Did anyone do a writeup of details? Would like to know more.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Did anyone do a writeup of details? Would like to know more.

I'll get to it. I'm doing the equipment list now.

-Alex

 

[timintx]

Thanks for the pics Alex. Good seeing you and great shooting by the way!!!!

 

[babyguppy]

Quick question
How were the conditions that day? It looked like a beautiful, calm, no wind day from the pictures

 

[DTubb]

Shoot off was in the afternoon. Wind speed was over 16mph and fishtailing for later relays.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Here is the equipment list. For people that are going to use this as a build list, my suggestion is that you look at trends rather than just go off the top.

-Alex

 

[ForgeValley]

Here is the equipment list. For people that are going to use this as a build list, my suggestion is that you look at trends rather than just go off the top.

-Alex

Wow, 33XC is just dominating the one mile comp. Also, thanks for adding gunsmiths in.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Shoot off was in the afternoon. Wind speed was over 16mph and fishtailing for later relays.

Is that what you were seeing downrange or what you were reading on the line?

-Alex

 

[BCX]

Glad to see so many guys using the 33XC.=the easy button lol.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Glad to see so many guys using the 33XC.=the easy button lol.

Easy button or the logical choice? 308 Win is a much more challenging choice but it is also pretty clearly the wrong choice. It isn't as easy of a choice for Ko2M but for Ko1M you can do the math fairly easily.

-Alex

 

[BCX]

Coming from a guy that has loved the 338 LM AI for many moons! I finally have my 33XC up and running.

Yes, easy button!

Yes, logical!

KO2M i would be looking to shoot a 375 cal min..

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Coming from a guy that has loved the 338 LM AI for many moons! I finally have my 33XC up and running.

Yes, easy button!

Yes, logical!

KO2M i would be looking to shoot a 375 cal min..

I think the good choices For Ko2M range from 375 CT up to 460 Steyr. Personally I tend to favor larger calibers just for the difference in splash downrange. I'll probably be converting one of my 50s to 460 in the near future but I would strongly recommend against an actual steyr though since their customer service is a flaming bag of dogshit.

-Alex

 

[BCX]

The 10x100 looks BADA$$

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

The 10x100 looks BADA$$

They are welcome to Come and Prove It. Until then it is just a paper tiger. I've yet to see one show up in match results and you can't buy brass anywhere so as far as I'm concerned after two years as vaporware, it is a failed project. So less badass and more just bad.

I love that the one pic of a rifle I can find is fucked up as a football bat as far as ergonomics.

-Alex

 

[BCX]

I see Cadex Tremor will be offered in 10x100. Maybe Cadex has some inside info?

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

I see Cadex Tremor will be offered in 10x100. Maybe Cadex has some inside info?

Let's circle back when "will be" becomes "is".

-Alex

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Shoot off was in the afternoon. Wind speed was over 16mph and fishtailing for later relays.

The thing that always surprises me is that at least in the finals where shooters can largely read the wind, the shooting order doesn't have a huge effect on outcome. Corrected vs shooting order it is enough to move you from 4th to 3rd but it is still very tight. Applying that kind of math in a match is something I'd have reservations on though. Using math that I can't get most people to understand has not worked out well in the past.

-Alex

 

[Bandit320]

Just curious, where was this years Ko1M held?

 

[Caymanboy]

Just curious, where was this years Ko1M held?

^^^^this^^^^

 

[Geno C.]

The thing that always surprises me is that at least in the finals where shooters can largely read the wind, the shooting order doesn't have a huge effect on outcome. Corrected vs shooting order it is enough to move you from 4th to 3rd but it is still very tight. Applying that kind of math in a match is something I'd have reservations on though. Using math that I can't get most people to understand has not worked out well in the past.

View attachment 7948132

-Alex

To me, that shows a direct correlation to starting time to placing

 

[Geno C.]

^^^^this^^^^

West of dfw

 

[Caymanboy]

West of dfw

Thank you.
Is the place/venue not public for a reason?

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

To me, that shows a direct correlation to starting time to placing

Maybe best that you don't do statistics for a living then. This data is pretty close to random and the elimination of a single data point changes the trend line the other way. Any time you see a trend line where almost none of the data points are near the line, the trend line is bullshit.

-Alex

 

[TripleBull]

Maybe best that you don't do statistics for a living then. This data is pretty close to random and the elimination of a single data point changes the trend line the other way. Any time you see a trend line where almost none of the data points are near the line, the trend line is bullshit.

View attachment 7949358

-Alex

It may be possible to bring other factors into the analysis, such as the decisions each shooter was acting on, like drop and wind, assuming they would give you honest data (if they documented it +/- remembered it accurately). Analysis of uncertainty is difficult when you have solid controls on a limited number of variables. When I look at data like the above, I see lots of noise, and I'd expect that, given what is known and what may be unknown.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

It may be possible to bring other factors into the analysis, such as the decisions each shooter was acting on, like drop and wind, assuming they would give you honest data (if they documented it +/- remembered it accurately). Analysis of uncertainty is difficult when you have solid controls on a limited number of variables. When I look at data like the above, I see lots of noise, and I'd expect that, given what is known and what may be unknown.

Complex derivatives on match scores. What could go wrong!

When I look at shooting order vs score, the result is almost always random. Some matches with dramatic shifts in weather show differences but it is often most surprising in how little of a difference it makes. It is in our nature to try to tease truth out of facts but the results are intrinsically subjective.

-Alex

 

[timintx]

I am starting to lean towards what Alex is saying ,at first I was more inclined to see a advantage early in the day but I had a really early shooting place and really good winds I thought , but never the less were switchy as hell. I basically missed smaller but still missed , I saw the same type of missing patterns in the mid day , nothing had changed so in this particular case it seems that early morning verses mid day are not always a advantage just from my observations at the KO1M . I suspect terrain has a influence on the statistics because we had targets down in a hole with huge foot hills surrounding valley seemingly blocking the wind down on the floor of the valley but swirling never the less .you would see dust move right but you had to dial 2-3 MOA right to hit . Weird stuff down on the floor of the valley but it stayed the same all day for the most part with occasional lulls but even then the hits did not seem to increase when I was watching. The misses were still small mid day for the most part.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

I am starting to lean towards what Alex is saying ,at first I was more inclined to see a advantage early in the day but I had a really early shooting place and really good winds I thought , but never the less were switchy as hell. I basically missed smaller but still missed , I saw the same type of missing patterns in the mid day , nothing had changed so in this particular case it seems that early morning verses mid day are not always a advantage just from my observations at the KO1M . I suspect terrain has a influence on the statistics because we had targets down in a hole with huge foot hills surrounding valley seemingly blocking the wind down on the floor of the valley but swirling never the less .you would see dust move right but you had to dial 2-3 MOA right to hit . Weird stuff down on the floor of the valley but it stayed the same all day for the most part with occasional lulls but even then the hits did not seem to increase when I was watching. The misses were still small mid day for the most part.

So here are the prelim charts done the same way. Again at a glance there is mostly just random data. Ask a bunch of people to add a trend line on their own and you'd get different answers from them all. Asking a machine to do it and you get one that has negative slope both days.

What is rather deceptive about this is that the trends are dominated by people that really ate it. They weren't missing small as Tim puts it. They only connected a few times. If we assume that these people all had something fundamentally wrong going on (shooting a 308, no spotter, weren't using a ballistics solver...) and drop scores bellow 5000 then we get this:

The trend lines become flat again. There is an average difference of about 2500 from day to day but Since I had the highest rank member of each team shoot Saturday, it is potentially explainable. The best scores (which are the only ones that actually matter) also happen through the day. If I was going to put a reason on that, it would be because the best shooters can deal with the conditions as they change. If that logic is true then bad conditions probably make them stand out further from the pack.

Don't get me wrong, there are matches in which the wind picks up in a big way halfway through and some people get pretty screwed. There absolutely can be disadvantages based upon shooting order. It isn't usually the case though. I run this chart across most large matches that I run and even when I expect to see a trend based upon what I've seen the wind doing across the day, it hardly every shines through.

-Alex

 

[TheOtherAndrew]

The best scores (which are the only ones that actually matter) also happen through the day. If I was going to put a reason on that, it would be because the best shooters can deal with the conditions as they change. If that logic is true then bad conditions probably make them stand out further from the pack.

Don't get me wrong, there are matches in which the wind picks up in a big way halfway through and some people get pretty screwed. There absolutely can be disadvantages based upon shooting order. It isn't usually the case though.

 

[oneshot.onehit]

Just visiting with Dave some, he said most were using just spin drift on Saturday even in the afternoon and he was the second shooter on Sunday and was using 9 minutes of wind to impact. So yes every day is a new day it always sucks to wake up in the morning and winds are already blowing good but I will take full value versus light winds switching left - right at your 12 or 6.

Alex and Jay, you folks had a great KO1M event, it was well done.

osoh
JH

 

[DTubb]

Is that what you were seeing downrange or what you were reading on the line?

-Alex

Off of my Ventusky wind app at 10 meters.. 30 meters was slightly faster

 

[Geno C.]

Off of my Ventusky wind app at 10 meters.. 30 meters was slightly faster

Love that app!

 

[babyguppy]

Quick Question - Are the following rules still in effect for ELR 2022?
ELR Heavy class
Up to 50 Caliber
50 Pounds or less
Any bipod
Up to 2 spotters
ELR light class
338 caliber and below
.585 bolt face and smaller
26 pounds or less
Any bipod
Up to 2 spotters

 

[Geno C.]

No boltface restrictions at any match that I’ve heard. Bipods are restricted and weight is 40lb for ko2m match only.

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Quick Question - Are the following rules still in effect for ELR 2022?
ELR Heavy class
Up to 50 Caliber
50 Pounds or less
Any bipod
Up to 2 spotters
ELR light class
338 caliber and below
.585 bolt face and smaller
26 pounds or less
Any bipod
Up to 2 spotters

Light gun
338 and 26 pounds
Bipod rule and spotter rule vary from match to match

Ko1M
338 and 26 pounds
folding bipods only
1 spotter only

Heavy
50 caliber and 50 pounds
Bipod rule and spotter rule vary from match to match

Ko2M
40 pounds and any caliber (approval required for calibers over 50)
folding bipods only
1 spotter only

Most of that hasn't changed in 3 years.

-Alex

 

[LastShot300]

Out of curiosity, why the KO1M has two targets beyond the 1760 yards mark, at 1909 and 2391?

 

[Sandow the Heretic]

Out of curiosity, why the KO1M has two targets beyond the 1760 yards mark, at 1909 and 2391?

Ko1M started as an intro ELR match overseas for countries where running Ko2M was going to have very low turn out just because of the guns people owned or could own. In most of those countries now, 1 mile is also too close for the kind of ranges people are consistent at and they are moving beyond 1 Mile. For the US, we already had a decent established history of performance out to 2400ish so it was a logical range cap.

-Alex

 

[Taylorbok]

Is the Ko1M limited to 338?

 

[ForgeValley]

Is the Ko1M limited to 338?

Yes, 338 or less.