KY Gov. Bevin addresses Gun Violence
- Thread starter el-wood
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Well, he did have some good words up until around the halfway point where he started whining about cyber bullying and violence in the media and being desensitized. I'm calling total bullshit on that. If anything kids these days are becoming overly sensitized. As a little kid I was bullied on almost a daily basis and while in Jr. High I became one myself. Bullies have ALWAYS existed and will continue to exist. The problem with America's youth is not bullying, but rather this bubble or "hug groups" that we try and surround our kids with. And as far as violent movies, music, and video games goes, there has NOT been a single non-biased study that directly links those with violent behavior.
Causation is nearly imposible to show. Have any of these studies shown positive correlation? Perhaps, you have influence from multiple variables. What if you were raised without strong moral training in the earlier years while being exposed to violence in movies, music, and video games? We certainly know that the family uit has broken down since we built the 'Great Society' in 1965. My hypothesis is the violent movies, games, and music are a contributing factor that is mitigated with moral training that teaches right form wrong. Without that training, the child would see the music, movies, and games as life training.... just my statistical 2 cents.
Start with On Killing by Dave Grossman. Not only is causation easily shown statistically, the very point of certain media was/is to cause violence. A great deal of time money and effort has been poured into perfecting it over the last 70+ years. After finishing the book follow up on his bibliography.
Moses, I respectfully disagree on a matter of statistics. It is possible, and most times very probable to show strong correlation statistically, however causation is very difficult when looking at a population of data. At the individual data element level it is possible to determine cause.
Nah. The honorable Governor Bevin has math and research on his side. He is perfectly correct in calling out the Hollywood gore machine. If there is something that Herr H. Weinstein should be held to account for in the most severe way, I would put this first. But what will keep Matt Bevin's praise-worthy speech from getting off of the ground are ears ground deaf by the political reality that this conversation cannot be had without resulting in a certain constituency becoming absolutely apoplectic. The ensuing loss of votes and corner grocery stores is too unpalatable.
With my graduate students, where the conversation around statistics turns more on what is the better way rather than the how and this topic arises, I snag from the shelf one of my favorite statistics text-books, Chance Encounters by CJ Wild and George Seber(1) (turn to page 27). They cite the Surgeon General of our United States and set out criteria for the establishment of a cause and effect relationship in an epidemiological study as follows:
1. Strong relationship: For example illness is four times as likely among people exposed to a possible cause as it is for those who are not exposed.
2. Strong research design
3. Temporal relationship: The cause must precede the effect.
4. Dose-response relationship: Higher exposure leads to a higher proportion of people affected.
5. Reversible association: Removal of the cause reduces the incidence of the effect.
6. Consistency: Multiple studies in different locations producing similar effects
7. Biological plausibility: there is a supportable biological mechanism
8. Coherence with known facts.
Simple enough (the book is an easy and good read). But the most common challenge to this arises from that the fact that we are in a business school setting and the topic is human behaviour, not hard science. Of course shooting 17 of your classmates is behaviour well worth examining. My undergraduate education is in the hard sciences, but I was never so impressed with science as when I witnessed the advertisers at Saatchi & Saatchi (at the time the worlds largest by revenue) study and then manipulate human behavior with skill and certainty akin to a puppet master. Much to my surprise I found in their ranks some of the best data scientists I have ever known. In short, if they are wrong very much (spend x causes y behavior) they are fired. They are almost always entirely right. Oddly enough, one of them is cited by Grossman.
Concocting the potion that would effect violence is what General Marshall was never able to do nearly as well as he would like. His successors in the Army eventually surrendered their own production studios and deferred to the likes of Martin Scorsese, Michael Cimino, and the throng of programmers at Rockstar Games, which is what a good chunk of the American psyche has likewise attached themselves to.
Math is a crutch that supports my crippled business acumen, which is why I somehow flopped into the world of BI/AI/Big Data a decade ago. And if I am wrong, then I too will be fired. I'm guessing you have a math background and you may wish to fire me right now. If so, maybe we should drink on it.
There is no shortage of very skilled puppet masters. The world's largest, by far, being in the book link below... Amazon.
(1) https://www.amazon.com/Chance-Encounters-Course-Analysis-Inference/dp/0471329363
With my graduate students, where the conversation around statistics turns more on what is the better way rather than the how and this topic arises, I snag from the shelf one of my favorite statistics text-books, Chance Encounters by CJ Wild and George Seber(1) (turn to page 27). They cite the Surgeon General of our United States and set out criteria for the establishment of a cause and effect relationship in an epidemiological study as follows:
1. Strong relationship: For example illness is four times as likely among people exposed to a possible cause as it is for those who are not exposed.
2. Strong research design
3. Temporal relationship: The cause must precede the effect.
4. Dose-response relationship: Higher exposure leads to a higher proportion of people affected.
5. Reversible association: Removal of the cause reduces the incidence of the effect.
6. Consistency: Multiple studies in different locations producing similar effects
7. Biological plausibility: there is a supportable biological mechanism
8. Coherence with known facts.
Simple enough (the book is an easy and good read). But the most common challenge to this arises from that the fact that we are in a business school setting and the topic is human behaviour, not hard science. Of course shooting 17 of your classmates is behaviour well worth examining. My undergraduate education is in the hard sciences, but I was never so impressed with science as when I witnessed the advertisers at Saatchi & Saatchi (at the time the worlds largest by revenue) study and then manipulate human behavior with skill and certainty akin to a puppet master. Much to my surprise I found in their ranks some of the best data scientists I have ever known. In short, if they are wrong very much (spend x causes y behavior) they are fired. They are almost always entirely right. Oddly enough, one of them is cited by Grossman.
Concocting the potion that would effect violence is what General Marshall was never able to do nearly as well as he would like. His successors in the Army eventually surrendered their own production studios and deferred to the likes of Martin Scorsese, Michael Cimino, and the throng of programmers at Rockstar Games, which is what a good chunk of the American psyche has likewise attached themselves to.
Math is a crutch that supports my crippled business acumen, which is why I somehow flopped into the world of BI/AI/Big Data a decade ago. And if I am wrong, then I too will be fired. I'm guessing you have a math background and you may wish to fire me right now. If so, maybe we should drink on it.
There is no shortage of very skilled puppet masters. The world's largest, by far, being in the book link below... Amazon.
(1) https://www.amazon.com/Chance-Encounters-Course-Analysis-Inference/dp/0471329363
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Excellent video, excellent discussion here (for the most part), and my prediction; beyond this site, it's mostly falling on deaf ears.
This society is dead except for the death rattle. It was brought down deliberately, and those responsible are convinced they are both justified and doing the best things "for the greater good".
I'm glad I'm 71 and not 21, because I have managed to live in the best of times. They are past.
Greg
This society is dead except for the death rattle. It was brought down deliberately, and those responsible are convinced they are both justified and doing the best things "for the greater good".
I'm glad I'm 71 and not 21, because I have managed to live in the best of times. They are past.
Greg
I can't seem to write this without writing a book. Damn. I agree mostly with the governor there.
I'll keep it short. I majored in math analysis (basically every calculus class ever invented) and also statistics/probability. I minored in logic/philosophy and probably could have grabbed another minor in art history (I LOVED college, only went to learn, gave two fucks about the degree). I'll tell you that art history, as much as I believe in the power of maths, art history will be your better bet to take the temperature of a culture. When times are good, art is pretty. When times are bad, its ugly. When it gets REALLY bad, technical skills begin to suffer too. When it falls totally to shit, like the Middle East, art basically comes to a standstill. That has to do with Maslow's Pyramid more than anything else though.
Technical skills aren't suffering right now, that's a good thing. But Mario Bros. has been replaced by Call of Duty. Movies are almost always violent, to the point I get sick of watching them. I don't get off on watching people get shot in interesting ways. Maybe it's because I've been part and parcel to violence most of my life, been shot at, been held at gunpoint to my head 3 times, and there's things I'd like to unwatch. Like my friend shooting himself in the head at 14. He learned how to handle firearms from TV and from a local gang member. My buddy blowing a car, pregnant lady and her husband to fragments with an M2HB using the RWS, which is a lot like a video game. Many of our smaller drones use Xbox controllers FWIW, because soldiers already know how to use them. That should be a hint right there.
At age 8 I knew the difference between reality and fantasy. I was allowed to watch R rated movies at age 6? Younger maybe? As long as I didn't get scared, and my mother made sure I knew it wasn't real. I was prepared for it. My first rifle and shotgun at 8 were NOT toys. Today parents don't do this, they shield them until they turn 18 but then they've lost control. Now the kid will learn however he pleases. Or not.
Best thing you can do is limit the amount of violence the kid is exposed to, not all, some needs to be there to teach the kid the ways of the world, good and bad. Laughing at dead bodies deserves a strong backhand. Lead by example. Buy your kid a firearm and teach the kid how to use it. Teach them proper handling and storage. Show them what happens to real people when they get shot for real, that usually sucks the fun out of it and brings it home. Don't let your kids peers or the TV or video games be his instructor in violence and the bad ways of the world.
In my time, for some reason sex was a big deal. So what do you think happened? Sex fantasy and reality were blurred for me and so I was behind the curve on that and had to learn it all the hard way. I got a girl pregnant at 14. Had sex been more open of a subject like violence was, I doubt that would have happened.
Shit, I don't know what else to say. I feel it'd take a book to get my ideas across, but I think most of you get my gist. Monkey see, monkey do, if the monkey doesn't see you do it it'll see someone else and do it that way. That's about as distilled as I can get it.
I'll keep it short. I majored in math analysis (basically every calculus class ever invented) and also statistics/probability. I minored in logic/philosophy and probably could have grabbed another minor in art history (I LOVED college, only went to learn, gave two fucks about the degree). I'll tell you that art history, as much as I believe in the power of maths, art history will be your better bet to take the temperature of a culture. When times are good, art is pretty. When times are bad, its ugly. When it gets REALLY bad, technical skills begin to suffer too. When it falls totally to shit, like the Middle East, art basically comes to a standstill. That has to do with Maslow's Pyramid more than anything else though.
Technical skills aren't suffering right now, that's a good thing. But Mario Bros. has been replaced by Call of Duty. Movies are almost always violent, to the point I get sick of watching them. I don't get off on watching people get shot in interesting ways. Maybe it's because I've been part and parcel to violence most of my life, been shot at, been held at gunpoint to my head 3 times, and there's things I'd like to unwatch. Like my friend shooting himself in the head at 14. He learned how to handle firearms from TV and from a local gang member. My buddy blowing a car, pregnant lady and her husband to fragments with an M2HB using the RWS, which is a lot like a video game. Many of our smaller drones use Xbox controllers FWIW, because soldiers already know how to use them. That should be a hint right there.
At age 8 I knew the difference between reality and fantasy. I was allowed to watch R rated movies at age 6? Younger maybe? As long as I didn't get scared, and my mother made sure I knew it wasn't real. I was prepared for it. My first rifle and shotgun at 8 were NOT toys. Today parents don't do this, they shield them until they turn 18 but then they've lost control. Now the kid will learn however he pleases. Or not.
Best thing you can do is limit the amount of violence the kid is exposed to, not all, some needs to be there to teach the kid the ways of the world, good and bad. Laughing at dead bodies deserves a strong backhand. Lead by example. Buy your kid a firearm and teach the kid how to use it. Teach them proper handling and storage. Show them what happens to real people when they get shot for real, that usually sucks the fun out of it and brings it home. Don't let your kids peers or the TV or video games be his instructor in violence and the bad ways of the world.
In my time, for some reason sex was a big deal. So what do you think happened? Sex fantasy and reality were blurred for me and so I was behind the curve on that and had to learn it all the hard way. I got a girl pregnant at 14. Had sex been more open of a subject like violence was, I doubt that would have happened.
Shit, I don't know what else to say. I feel it'd take a book to get my ideas across, but I think most of you get my gist. Monkey see, monkey do, if the monkey doesn't see you do it it'll see someone else and do it that way. That's about as distilled as I can get it.
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