Happens. I'm sure there's a precision explanation, but really; it's mostly a thing about "knowing your gun", which includes knowing yourself.
I'd rather know how to fix it, than know precisely how and why I missed. We do our best, and learn how to settle for our best. If we don't, frustration will get to us.
If I had to guess, I'd say, Yep, no wind (at the shooter). Just 'cause you can't see it at 150yd doesn't mean it isn't there.
Also, natural dispersion exists, it's real, and it's not always a consistent thing. Bore/barrel temp, degree of bore fouling, ammo temp, all these things conspire to alter dispersion, and more.
For example, air density can very along a trajectory, and that changes the predictability of wind effects.
Thermals are vertical drafts. They go up, but air cools and what goes up comes down. Meanwhile, air at ground level flows from the downdrafts toward the updrafts, and can flow at any one of 360 degrees. It's a jungle out there, and what's worse, it's largely invisible.
Look for the hawks, they know this stuff better than any of us ever will. When their wings rock, they know they're found an updraft.
Air is
never stationary. Nor does it move in straight lines. It is driven by the sun's effect on terrain. Darker ground absorbs solar radiation and warms the adjacent air. This brings updrafts which rise because they are less dense. This allows denser (cooler) air to move in. But it also cools the ground, disrupting the potential for a steady flow. Wind is chaos, a learnable kind of chaos.
Chaos was the first creature. It never had parents. It existed first, and from our viewpoint, has always been a factor. Fighting it has precisely the same result as not.
Embrace Khaos, and accept that she's neither predictable, nor hostile. She just is. Do that, and you'll have a valuable edge.
When I shoot the distances, I
lean the trajectory into the wind,
and allow the wind to blow it back onto the target. This is a crucial wind strategy. We don't fight the wind, we
enlist it. Watch trace and you'll gather exactly what I mean by leaning, and blowing back ontarget. As winds change along a trajectory, paths get altered, and the trajectory becomes something more complex than simply a parabola.
But even knowing all these things and precisely how they work does not change the fact that no matter how well you work the solutions, you're still going to need to settle for the best you can do anyway.
Nobody's
that consistent.
Give yourself a break. Allow for a little bit of imperfection.
Perfection is hard, it's stressful, and even when you
can achieve it, it's
boring...
This does not mean you should let up at all. But accept that mankind needs to let things go once in awhile, simply as an accommodation to mental health. If you're not making progress, let off and try again a bit later. Sometimes that's all it takes; a change into a fresh mind.
When you get your act together, even when you're not perfect, you're probably about as good as the next guy, if not a tad better. Usually that's all it takes. Remember, you don't need to outrun the bear, just be able to outrun your slowest companion.
If there wasn't some discrepancy from try to try, there'd be no need for competition; the same guy would win all the time. But they don't and that's a good thing for all the rest of us.
Discrepancy makes it all a little more worthwhile. Every perfectionist I've ever met had a frown on most of the time. Don't let your own mind be your worst opponent. When I fail, I'm the one that fails. Just me, not someone's influence, not something's influence. I fail because I didn't take the important things into proper consideration.
My thinking on accuracy centers on the term "adequate". I think less about groups than I do about "defeating the target". When you do that, you'll
know, regardless of the fractions or decimals.
Greg