EXCELLLENT VIDEO.
BUT... about as BLACK PILL as black pill can be. Bottom line neither side is going to give up. The stakes for both are insanely high.
Pasting a very accurate summary by
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Jacob Dreizen was on the Sidebar program with Viva and Barnes tonight. It was mostly Jacob talking, very few questions.
He made a few main points. He said in the Soviet Union days, Ukraine was subsidized and integrated into the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine was still integrated into the Military Industrial Complex of Russia. Ukraine produced most of the rocket engines and helicopter engines used in Russia.
As Russia had hard times in the 1990s, this part of the Ukraine economy shrunk. The USA saw the opportunity to put Ukraine on the payroll, often using IMF loans to keep the Ukraine government afloat. Since 2014, the USA has been running Ukraine. The US Embassy in Kiev controls cabinet level appointments and policy decisions.
Jacob notes that Iraq and Afghanistan were disasters for the USA MIC. We failed in both adventures, and failed badly and openly. The results were so bad that American citizens have zero tolerance for another big land war involving the USA military. This has directly led to the attempt by the USA MIC to develop Ukraine as a proxy for attacking Russia. He was adamant that USA MIC sees success in Ukraine as the only way to hold the USA Empire’s hold on Europe together. If the project in Ukraine fails like Iraq or Afghanistan, then the USA Empire goes away. The MIC would then see its ability to pull in a trillion dollars a year (my low estimate) from Uncle Sam go away.
On the Russian side, he said the primary reason Putin invaded Ukraine was forced by Putin’s desire to retire from leadership. He said Putin is pushing 70 and showing signs of wanting to leave. In order for him to leave, he has to leave Russia in good shape internally (considered done) and in good shape on the periphery of Russia (which led to the Ukraine invasion). He thinks the current defense secretary in Russia is the heir apparent. He does not think this guy has the same leadership skills as Putin. Putin sees failure in Ukraine would lead to the partitioning of Russia by the West.
Jacob’s forecast was a black pill. He said both sides are viewing Ukraine as a must-win scenario and are unwilling to back down. The USA is in control of Ukraine, and all the Ukrainian “leaders” are puppets bought and paid for by USA. The USA MIC is not willing to let Ukraine go, but also knows any attempt to push USA military combat units in Ukraine would result in immediate popular revolt in USA. So the USA MIC is quite willing to fight to the last Ukrainian.
As an aside, he said the USA MIC really does not care about USA price inflation in fuel or food, or about the clown show that is the Biden Administration. They view the Biden Administration as the people who will get blamed for inflation or shortages. They only care about continuing the grift that is the USA MIC.
Jacob called the original invasion by Putin into Ukraine correctly. (I did not. Barnes did not.) He also predicted that Russians would do an encirclement strategy in the Ukraine and move slowly. Russia can do this to slowly win in Ukraine, and do it for a long time. He said the Ukraine professional military of roughly 200k troops is largely used up. Now when Russia starts an encirclement, the Ukrainian troops know that no rescue is coming and they either run or surrender.
He sees the biggest risk is a nuclear exchange. He did not discuss this in detail on this video.
When asked for a white pill at the end, he said that the best scenario is that the USA Empire ends and that USA comes home to fix its own problems. But he said the USA MIC will not go quietly, and we have a huge battle to get rid of it.