PortaJohn
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Imagine that. 30% more currency in circulation than a year ago. How could there be inflation?
Those that took Econ 101 will remember that the velocity of money is also a factor. If the Fed adds 30% to the currency "in circulation" (a bit of an ambiguous term) but velocity decreases by more than 30% because, oh, people are forced to stay home and stream Netflix shows, then one will actually experience deflation.
The real fun happens later when all that pent-up demand pops loose, or when supplies dwindle for certain items and effectively a market turns into a bidding war, or when the concept of rational market behavior is proven incorrect and dislocations occur. We're probably experiencing all of those things currently, and it's probably going to get worse as emotional people continue to react to situations they do not want to deal with but cannot ignore.
Hey why not? Fuck it.....no pun intended.
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New Yorker wants to marry their adult biological CHILD
The parent filed the lawsuit in Manhattan federal court on April 1 asking a judge to declare incest laws unconstitutional and unenforceable so they can wed their offspring in New York City.
Just more signs of decay....
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Dozens of motorcyclists bring a Maryland highway to a standstill
The group on motorbikes were filmed riding down the Capital Beltway on Sunday, and stopping in the middle of the highway to do tricks on their bikes, blocking traffic and infuriating drivers.
True to a large degree, or at least it should be, but more likely is that oil prices are rising in anticipation of supply issues given the atrocious policies of the new government, and so far that is the biggest driver of inflation across the board. Pent up. demand is also going to be an issue, of course, especially y/y given the almost zero demand for travel twelve months ago. But once again, in the last twenty years it doesn't seem like the velocity of money has really changed much, yet the supply has increased immensely, and we don't yet see the corresponding inflation we should, so reducing it to a single factor this month seems unwise.
I'm going to challenge your statement that "in the last twenty years it doesn't seem like the velocity of money has really changed much":
Looks to me like it's dropped substantially over that timeframe. The drop just in the past year alone was huge. That's why adding 30% to the money supply in the past year/month/day/nanosecond doesn't spark inflation.
What's the number I heard in the radio last week - something like 60% of all stimulus money got parked in savings accounts? I don't know if I'm recalling this correctly (or if it was properly stated), but it plays into this overall theme that has hampered recovery since 2009 - those who are net savers aren't spending money, and those who are in debt cannot afford to add any more debt. There are obvious exceptions to this in the current market - plenty of money is being spent on houses and pickup trucks - but overall, that represents relatively few participants in the economy. Kinda tough to juice up the economy when less than 10% of the population can afford to engage in commerce beyond the bare necessities.
And with that, we've way overshot the boundaries of expected discourse in this thread
So yes, you are right. But the fed number for the velocity of money is GDP/M2, so it just finishes the equation V=PT/M where PT=GDP. So it isn't something measured independently. I was certainly sloppy with my words there. What I was referring to was that it doesn't appear that other things that determine what we perceive as the velocity of money, like savings rate etc, aggregate demand, etc have changed much over time, which is the conundrum I consistently allude to.I'm going to challenge your statement that "in the last twenty years it doesn't seem like the velocity of money has really changed much":
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Looks to me like it's dropped substantially over that timeframe. The drop just in the past year alone was huge. That's why adding 30% to the money supply in the past year/month/day/nanosecond doesn't spark inflation.
What's the number I heard in the radio last week - something like 60% of all stimulus money got parked in savings accounts? I don't know if I'm recalling this correctly (or if it was properly stated), but it plays into this overall theme that has hampered recovery since 2009 - those who are net savers aren't spending money, and those who are in debt cannot afford to add any more debt. There are obvious exceptions to this in the current market - plenty of money is being spent on houses and pickup trucks - but overall, that represents relatively few participants in the economy. Kinda tough to juice up the economy when less than 10% of the population can afford to engage in commerce beyond the bare necessities.
And with that, we've way overshot the boundaries of expected discourse in this thread
You may be right about who, and how many can afford, but I'd argue otherwise, to wit there has been a great flattening of the sense of "luxury goods" over that period. Whereas in, say the '50s, there was a huge disconnect between what the elite had, air travel, television, opera, and what the common man had, radio, baseball, at this point we all have iphones, flat screens and garbage sports, while the differences come in the ability to amass capital, not how to enjoy it.
I think that both of these things, how the fundamental above equation holds up, and how the flattening or steepening of the "luxury curve" changes are going to be interesting, and going to determine what of what we knew was right, and what was wrong.
but pizzagate is a conspiracy theory, so just ignore it.
There was a "Patrolman Rose" murdered in Boston PD by a prisoner that was being booked and grabbed a gun.
Was wondering if there is some sort of relation and they looked on him as a sacred cow relative of murdered officer that couldnt be touched.
No excuse gross.
Everyone occupation has its share of shit.
The shit smells worse though when it is supposed to enforce standards on others that it doesnt meet.
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I know a liberal, he said he voted for Trump when I was pointing out what a psychopathic liar Hillary was in 2016, but he keeps his TV remote J&B Welded to CNN 14 hours a day.classic
Since he's Jewish I once tried talking him into buying an AR15, claiming he of all people should appreciate the 2nd A. He not only declined but he also later blamed Sandy Hook in general and me and others in particular as black rifle owners for the incident.
This summer, when Antifa was burning down cities and were even rioting in nearby Austin, he called and asked me if removing the plug from his pump dove gun was legal as he said he felt defenseless.
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Max 3 shells, legal time stops 30 min after sunset and driving to a foot locker parking lot would be hunting over bait.
@TexPatriot: Did you tell him to pound sand and ask his local communist leaders?
@TexPatriot & @theLBC: My libtard neighbor was threatening last year to call cops on people in the neighborhood having parties. One was during lockdown, the other when it was "safer at home." The irony is that he too is Jewish. He's staunchly anti-gun, believes COTUS is fluid and is a living breathing document that should be easily changed, that the BOR can be suspended when there is a crisis.
The absolute stupidity of this person is beyond me. Does he not realize Hitler, for the most part, took control of Germany via using their very weak constitution (by subterfuge mind you)? Did he not realize Hitler was adamant Hindenburg would not be deposed via a military coup by the SA? Granted, Hitler (SS and Gestapo) were murdering people on the side to get their way.
The parallels between then and now should not be lost on any person with even moderate IQ.
@TexPatriot & @theLBC: My libtard neighbor was threatening last year to call cops on people in the neighborhood having parties. One was during lockdown, the other when it was "safer at home." The irony is that he too is Jewish. He's staunchly anti-gun, believes COTUS is fluid and is a living breathing document that should be easily changed, that the BOR can be suspended when there is a crisis.
The absolute stupidity of this person is beyond me. Does he not realize Hitler, for the most part, took control of Germany via using their very weak constitution (by subterfuge mind you)? Did he not realize Hitler was adamant Hindenburg would not be deposed via a military coup by the SA? Granted, Hitler (SS and Gestapo) were murdering people on the side to get their way.
The parallels between then and now should not be lost on any person with even moderate IQ.
fbi still does nothing, continues to target patriots instead.
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BREAKING: Violent BLM Mob Breaks Into Columbus, Ohio Police Station -- Pepper Spray Police Officer! | The Gateway Pundit | by Jim Hoft
Black Lives Matter terrorists were able to break into the Columbus, Ohio police station on Tuesday night!
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A majority (51%) of voters believe it is likely that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, including 35% who say it’s Very Likely cheating affected the election.
Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans believe it is likely last year’s presidential election was affected by cheating, a view shared by 30% of Democrats and 51% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
www.rasmussenreports.com
Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans believe it is likely last year’s presidential election was affected by cheating, a view shared by 30% of Democrats and 51% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
Election Integrity: 62% Don’t Think Voter ID Laws Discriminate
Most voters say it’s more important to prevent cheating in elections than to make it easier to vote and, by more than a two-to-one margin, they reject claims that voter ID laws are discriminatory.
www.rasmussenreports.com
Savings rate is another interesting stat to explore:
Oh, crap, that's a complete mess with the spike at the start of the pandemic. Let's remove that so we can better see the trend in "normal" times:
Ah, that's better. It's a noisy data set, but it's pretty easy to see that the trend went from something in the 3.5% range pre-2008 recession to roughly double that afterwards. Is that significant? Hard to say - but it probably has a substantial deflationary influence that's going to counteract some of the money that's being "printed".
Things like auto sales are interesting - we go from selling ~15 million vehicles/year in the 1970s to ~17 million today, despite the population being roughly 50% higher today than 45 years ago. Now, we've got different demographics and vehicles last longer and a whole bunch of other relevant differences, so it's not a "neat" comparison and I wouldn't use just this one set of stats as the basis for a claim that automobiles are less affordable. But it certainly hints at a narrowing of the car market.
Anyways, the whole point is that it's not sufficient to look at a simple stat like M2 supply going up by X% in Y time and start doing the chicken-little inflation dance. But it's also not a bad idea to play some what-ifs and wonder what happens if all that fresh money supply gets combined with a 2007-level of savings (or lack thereof) or late-1990s levels of money velocity. Could get messy!
Texas School Board Members Indicted by Grand Jury for Secret Discussions of Critical Race Theory › American Greatness
Two school board members in the state of Texas are facing grand jury charges after they privately discussed advancing Critical Race Theory and other far-left ideas in their district, in violation of a…
amgreatness.com
not a joke
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Over 50% Of Liberal, White Women Under 30 Have A Mental Health Issue. Are We Worried Yet?
Focusing on women and celebrating what makes them so unique, Evie Magazine helps women seek truth and find beauty...the kind that really matters.
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Modems Discovered in NC Election Machines - Voter Integrity Project
[Note: The State Board of Elections characterized this article as “misinformation” and launched a propaganda campaign to combat the central premise of this article, which caused some pointed questions by key lawmakers. Later that day, SBE Director Bell sent this response to our story. We include...
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WATCH: Rioters in Minnesota Demand White People Act as Human Shields During Attack on Police Station | The Gateway Pundit | by Cassandra MacDonald
Black Lives Matter rioters demanded that white people move to the front and act as human shields while they attacked the Brooklyn Center police station on Tuesday evening.
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Hope he doesnt live near Fort Marcy Park.
None of this differs much from Times article bragging how the deep state/elites worked together to eliminate Trump and defeat the will of the People.
I should have told him his 3 shell max was plenty if he followed his candidate Biden's advise and just stepped out on the porch and shot of couple blasts in the air.
She's got that 1000 cock stare.
Georgia probe of Stacey Abrams-tied group ongoing with fight over subpoenaed documents
New Georgia Project appealed ruling ordering it to turn over records that may show "illegal campaign activities."
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Right, so what we are saying is that the propensity to spend has gone from 96.5% down to 93%, roughly, over that time period. When viewed from that angle, the change is much less significant, and it is the spending side that we would expect to look like the velocity of money, at least intuitively, to some degree. Meanwhile, M2 has gone from roughly 7 to 20, or almost tripling. All I am saying is that inflation, either measurable or perceived, doesn't really look like that scenario describes.
As far as auto sales, that is interesting. I'm going to have to think about what I think that might mean. Off the top of my head, while the population has increased, the mix has become more urban and less rural, which would change demand for autos somewhat. Also, you have had multiple gas price spikes, and the fear over climate change which has driven some behavioral shifts, but I agree it is worth considering.
I agree with your basic final point, and don't see it as that different from what I am saying. All of the what ifs are very troubling scenarios, though a change in spending vs savings would be a marginal problem that would likely cause more issues with the next debt bubble than with inflation, in my opinion. I honestly don't know what will happen. Certainly forcing inflation into certain sectors through policy, as we are doing with gas prices, further complicates the issue. I don't have a huge amount of faith in today's policy makers, even in comparison to the relatively little faith I had with yesterday's. But in the end, we are going to have to see how it shakes out.
Question is, are you willing to find the answer, or stick it out to fix what you can?
I hate to interrupt an opportunity for some ultra cerebral gaslighting, but this isn’t real difficult to figure out. And yes, it points to large amounts of inflation.
-Cars are a bigger part of American life today than 50 years ago and we’re more car dependent than ever.
-There are 150M more cars registered today than in 1975. Population has supposedly only risen 115M. Although for my percentages I counted 30M illegals.
-I’m not even going to mention interest rates or cash for clunkers...
New car sales rising 2M while population goes up nearly 150M and total registration over total population climbs from 62% to 77%, means people can’t afford to buy new cars.
If you actually live here it’s not that hard to figure out. I drive a Powerstroke diesel that’s 20 years old, so does my wife. If we were to buy these two vehicles new off the lot today they would be 200k and worth 120K after 1 year and likely 90K after 2. What kind of net worth does an individual have to have to make that make sense? 2M or more.
-Cars are a bigger part of American life today than 50 years ago and we’re more car dependent than ever.
-There are 150M more cars registered today than in 1975. Population has supposedly only risen 115M. Although for my percentages I counted 30M illegals.
-I’m not even going to mention interest rates or cash for clunkers...
New car sales rising 2M while population goes up nearly 150M and total registration over total population climbs from 62% to 77%, means people can’t afford to buy new cars.
If you actually live here it’s not that hard to figure out. I drive a Powerstroke diesel that’s 20 years old, so does my wife. If we were to buy these two vehicles new off the lot today they would be 200k and worth 120K after 1 year and likely 90K after 2. What kind of net worth does an individual have to have to make that make sense? 2M or more.
