Look over QL's "Change Diagram" for your load and it's easy to see why even tiny differences at the start can make a substantial difference in the end.
Looking at my .308 Win load, the "usable case capacity" is 48.6 grains of water. Which means that the gunpowder starts off in a space of less than 0.2 cubic inches. When the primer goes
BANG!, in less than one-half of one one-thousandth of a second, pressure drives the bullet about an inch and a half down the barrel, which increases the volume the powder is confined to by about 150%. And by that time the pressure has peaked, increasing about 3400-fold over the pressure I trapped inside that casing when I seated the bullet.
Shit's changing,
real fast. Mind-bogglingly fast. And if you've ever studied the Ideal Gas Law, you know that the volume, temperature and pressure of a gas are interrelated. Which means tiny, almost microscopic differences between the dimensions of your real-world components and what QL has recorded in its db will make measurable differences at the chrono.
Measure everything you can measure with reasonable accuracy. To allow for human error, I take measurements from several different components and use the average value. More measurements, averaged, equals a lower error rate.
I find QL's bullet lengths almost always are wrong, but the dimensions it gives for the boattail almost always are right. I use a cheap 6x hand lens and regular dial calipers to measure my boattails.
Despite all my careful measuring of components, in the eight years I've been using it, QL's initial prediction has never once been within 20 fps of actual. That's when you have to start tweaking powder properties. Most of the time, my opening salvo is off well more than 20 fps so don't consider tweaking powder properties an option, consider it a necessity. QL is a tool, not a tutor. You da boss. Tweak it until it howls.
Here are the QL tweaking parameters I got from Chris Long, who created a load development process know as
Optimum Barrel Time. OBT relies on QL's "barrel time" prediction, alternately known as "dwell," and effectively tweaking QL is integral to making OBT work as advertised.
Those are the three key QL properties to tweak, but the order is not carved in stone. I know shooters who are successfully applying OBT who start by tweaking Weighting Factor, and still others who begin at Bullet Weight.
Two of the cardinal rules of QL are never to change anything unless you have a valid reason for doing so, and never change anything without a reasonable expectation that the change will produce a value that is more accurate than QL's default values would. QL has no end of values you can mess with, and it would be ridiculously easy to start tweaking aimlessly and find yourself lost in the weeds.
Also, one of QL's shortcomings is it fails to account for differences in primer brisance. I stole this formula from I forget who to adjust QL's starting pressure to make up for that shortcoming. It is not essential you use this, but I find it lessens the needed tweaking.
Shot Start (Initiation) Pressure = ( 1420 x bearing surface length ) + 2860
Throw in an additional 600 psi for 215M primers (which probably also goes for any magnum primer).
The bearing surface length is expressed in inches, i.e., 1" = 1.0; 1 1/8"= 1.125. Off the top of my head, I can't think of a single bullet manufacturer who publishes bearing surface length. And I wouldn't trust them if they did. So that's just another property for you to measure.