My hope is when 2023 rolls in all of you guy's can say - Look, Hobo was wrong.
Let's watch it unfold.
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Let's watch it unfold.
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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
Wtf are you talking about? The economy is booming
What ever you are smokin', sniffin' or drinkin'...... Please share it with the rest of us.
I may start a "Snake Farm".... With as much Snake Oil that is being slathered around.... Got to be a demand for it... Going watch a Youtube video on snake milkin' and oil squeezin'
GDP expanded 5.7% last year - fastest pace since 1984. Not disagreeing we are gonna have a Recession but right this very minute, aside from The Market checking/correcting itself pretty well in January shit looks good for me. Concerned about inflation *but* I think that might just be a sign of all the bullshit we have been thru the last 18 months.
We'll see.
VooDoo
We'll see.
VooDoo
Easy to have that kind of expansion when the year before they had gdp shutdown to almost 0. It’s just like Biden creating all those jobs. I’m no, what happened is people went back to work. Amazing.
Just some things I ran across this morning 2/1/2022
______________
Soros pours $125M into super PAC ahead of midterms
Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11.0 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 23.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7.2 percent.
Justice Stephen Breyer’s impending retirement gives President Joe Biden his first chance to fill a seat on the Supreme Court.
Employment costs increased 4% from a year ago, the fastest in the 20-year data history,
Refinance applications fell 13% for the week and were 53% lower year over year.
______________
Jobs Openings Are Rising While U.S. Workers Continue to Quit in Droves
Gold prices climb back above $1,800, on track for second straight session gain
U.S. factories grow at slowest pace in 14 months amid omicron wave, ISM finds
FedEx suspends domestic express freight services as omicron hits staffingSoros pours $125M into super PAC ahead of midterms
Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11.0 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 23.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7.2 percent.
Justice Stephen Breyer’s impending retirement gives President Joe Biden his first chance to fill a seat on the Supreme Court.
Employment costs increased 4% from a year ago, the fastest in the 20-year data history,
Refinance applications fell 13% for the week and were 53% lower year over year.
100% will be in recession.
Inflation at a 40 year high... and that's just the "fake" inflation numbers... and everybody is now admitting it isn't "transitory".
Depends how much more helicopter money the Fed can dole out.
They are estimating 7 rate hikes this year. I think they r done
I heard it was 200 rate hikes. Wish they would just nuke it and raise that shit to 20%
I was discussing one aspect of this with a friend... rates have been in the tank for quite a long time. In a related note, for years 2020 and 2021 there have been around $1.4 TRILLION dollars in share buybacks. Those corporations can borrow money at extremely low rates and buy back shares....which is one of the primary reasons we've seen the stock market doing what it's been doing. Just in 2021 alone there were around $850 billion in buybacks.
LoL are you for real? Since 2008 system is on life support and shadow inflation (in translation real inflation) has been high for a while now. It just happened now that it really got out of hand and if government says 7%yoy you can bet a farm real consumer inflation is in high teens..
Tech drives stocks but due to free money price of stocks is really poor measure of economy and should be used on your own peril. Sooner rather than later there will be a big bust and things will fail, Europe first and you next…
Tech drives stocks but due to free money price of stocks is really poor measure of economy and should be used on your own peril. Sooner rather than later there will be a big bust and things will fail, Europe first and you next…
What's a better hedge? Silver, Gold or Primers?
Beans, boolits, and band-aids
I term that "digging the hole deeper"..... I have children who are raising my grand children. For their sake I hope I am proven wrong about a recession. They are better off than most but are working lot's of OT to keep their kids in good schools. I have been there and done that. The shirt below is 36 years old. Older than many SH members. Bought when the oil industry crashed in Louisiana. It seems to have come out and be worn during every recession. When we worked under an extended contract with no retro active clause, worked 3 - 4 days a week so the entire crew could be retained, had equipment owners bringing cash to pay us on the jobs because his bank accounts were froze and he took a second on his house to pay us, medical coverage ran out and we could not afford the COBRA, guy's were hiding their vehicles in the friends garage so the repo man could not snag them.....
Been there, done that, got the T shirt (below)..... Get ready
Attachments
The best hedge is to take any spare cash and pay off credit card debt... Take care of your credit rating.... If this goes on for long people will be using credit cards to buy groceries. Seen it 3 - 4 times in my life. And they are not doing it to build points... Credit card companies will stealthfully remove those perks. They are already now offering BNPL... They are ahead of the curve on debt to come.
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/buy-now-pay-later-5182291-final-4dcaa9bea32a4aa398eb99e5ca5406bb.png)
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL): What It Is, How It Works, Pros and Cons
Buy now, pay later is a short-term installment loan that lets you pay for purchases over time with no interest. Learn how BNPL works and about the pros and cons.
But that's Capitalism, right? The next crash it *always* there - it is inevitable. So long as there is money and Capitalism there will be ups/downs, crashes/boom times. If you love Capitalism (and I do!) we'll have to deal with the Shenanigans and bullshit. I'm more pissed about the fact that our "Representation" uses all this information they get before anyone else does to trade stocks and manipulate the market to huge advantage than I am about inflation.
Inflation has been many times what they have been reporting it at for decades...don't believe it? Look at the price of cars, refrigerators, homes, and even food....my Wife and I put every receipt, everything we buy, in a spreadsheet and she makes charts of it. Inflation has *not* been nominal over the last 30 years. I'm surprised (and concerned) that it's being made a big deal of now by The Media. Why now? Why not 10 years ago?
As always, we are being played, lied to, and manipulated and the only real fact is that the Uber Rich will continue to get filthy. So put yer money where the Big Money is.
VooDoo
Inflation has been many times what they have been reporting it at for decades...don't believe it? Look at the price of cars, refrigerators, homes, and even food....my Wife and I put every receipt, everything we buy, in a spreadsheet and she makes charts of it. Inflation has *not* been nominal over the last 30 years. I'm surprised (and concerned) that it's being made a big deal of now by The Media. Why now? Why not 10 years ago?
As always, we are being played, lied to, and manipulated and the only real fact is that the Uber Rich will continue to get filthy. So put yer money where the Big Money is.
VooDoo
I'm with Hobo on this.
This is a fake boom brought about free gubment money and artificially low interest rates. I've seen more people refinance and take out HELOCs this year than ever before. Most of the businesses I work with are overleveraged like you wouldn't believe.
In 2022 short term lending rates will increase, mortgage rates will go up substantially. At the same time, less people will be moving and less new homes will sell. The real estate market will see the "correction" everyone's been talking about for years and the fools that overleveraged themselves will take a huge hit. Businesses that have taken on all sorts of debt to fund growth will take a bath, those same businesses that wrote off their entire basis in the assets they acquired will have liabilities in excess of the FMV of their assets, the biggest tax bills they've ever dealt with and decreased revenues with which to service that debt. They'll flop, just like they did in 2008 and they'll take the rest of us down with them. We were here a decade ago and failed to learn our lesson.
The smart ones amongst us will stay liquid and capitalize on the bargains that will result. They'll play the long game and create lasting wealth.
Then again, our economic situation is pretty much unprecedented. Who knows. We can't really look back on history to see how this will play out.
I'm nervous as all hell though.
I'm in agreement with you... We may squabble over some of the minor propaganda, but that's life.
When the Saving's and Loan's crashed and the government ended up with thousands of houses, they created the Resolution Trust Corporation to 'bundle" defaulted properties and sold then to the Big Banks. Even the Big Banks did not want the Albatross. The Government sent money to the Big Banks so they would buy the properties.
Fast forward to 2022.... Blackstone is salivating and waiting for the next mass housing default. Blackstone will keep the US Government (FHA< VA< Etc) from getting another black eye.
Yes, it is capitalism.
There is the old saying..."the market can stay irrational a whole lot longer than you can stay solvent"
There is no telling when or even if things will correct back to reality. That said if or when it does NOTHING will be off limits.
I started talking’s about this in 2020. Big funds are buying physical real estate this time around.
Rental income in perpetuity, and asset appreciation. Yield.
Maybe. But I look at it like this, if America falls, the world falls. Period. End of story. If it’s gets that bad, none of the stuff we are talking about above is going to matter. It will simply be survival. Those in control of the game, have a vested interest, their own, to keep things going.
I remember some of your comments... Wasn't sure you wanted to make it public.
I would enjoy picking up a property or two, locally... Soon it will be time to watch the "Preliminary Notice of Default's"....
In the 80's, While working out of Los Angeles, I became acquainted with a hard working young man who had purchased one of the programs on buying foreclosure properties (Yes, the one's with 8 cassette recordings). He started in the poor Latino communities since he was bi-lingual. Families he had known for many years with aging parents who were in foreclosure. He explained he would buy their house and they could just pay him the same amount for rent that they were paying the bank. He pyramided them over. We joked with him about becoming a slum lord. In 5 years he built himself a mansion in LaHabra, CA. He was a hard worker, sharp, a good learner... He caught the wave.
At the bottom of this recession, there will be yet another wave.
Wasn’t there something about the gov printed and added 20% more money into the economy during the panicdemic, yet we somehow only admit to 5-7% inflation?
Be interesting if the downfall to America was a bunch of germs phobs, mass hysteria, and big gov panicking and outlawing work, leading to all of this, for what everyone with half a brain knew was pretty much just a chinese flu, slightly worse than the normal seasonal flu
Be interesting if the downfall to America was a bunch of germs phobs, mass hysteria, and big gov panicking and outlawing work, leading to all of this, for what everyone with half a brain knew was pretty much just a chinese flu, slightly worse than the normal seasonal flu
I don't know man... look at the eviction moratoriums last year. The government rewards the irresponsible and the responsible are left holding the bag. If we're expecting things to go south, I don't know that I want to depend on people paying their rent.
What about the Russian oligarchs? They made out like bandits when the USSR imploded.
1. Elites shore up their wealth in relatively stable assets the average Joe knows nothing about.
2. Shit hits the fan and big gov bails out the overleveraged through a subsidized mortgage buyout program.
3. Big gov liquidates those mortgages to the elites for pennies on the dollar.
4. The left celebrates their crisis aversion, the elites own everything and taxpayers foot the bill over the next 50 years.
Just a thought.
I have not read through this. I would imagine Blackstone has any eviction moratorium's covered in their lease agreement. After all, they have a lot of attorney's on retainer.
https://blackstoneam.com/lease/
I can't think of any situation where a contract supercedes law.
The Alarm has been sounding for quite some time.
'Sound the alarm': National debt hits $30 trillion as economists warn of impact for Americans
Economists say U.S. is on unsustainable fiscal path that can push up interest rates and mean less money is available to care for the poor and elderly.
www.usatoday.com
They could "forgive the debt" to themselves.... And then take on some of the other $23.5 trillion debt. That would leave the Nation $17 trillion in debt... MagicThe Alarm has been sounding for quite some time.
'Sound the alarm': National debt hits $30 trillion as economists warn of impact for Americans
Economists say U.S. is on unsustainable fiscal path that can push up interest rates and mean less money is available to care for the poor and elderly.www.usatoday.com
You lost me there.
How does a PLA supercede subsequent laws?
I'm willing to endure another year of pain if it means the Democrat scum are flushed down the toilet in the midterm elections.
If the federal government would stop giving away money and America's worthless fucking cunts would all go to work, we might avoid the next mess and it is coming. As it looks we are fucked and while the stock market might not drop like a rock, the value of money will decrease making it inflate stock prices to meet inflation.
The economy is ready to grow, we have tens of millions of new "Americans" entering the country every year, they will get jobs, open businesses and require homes, cars, appliances and access to goods and services, the economy will grow. If it grew from something other than the federal government printing money and giving it away, even better.
We really need Fuckwit Joe to stop fucking up America. We need elections where actual voters get to vote for the candidates and not tens of millions of fake voters and millions of ballots printed in China and delivered overnight.
We need law enforcement and to put millions of American scumbags in prison for as long as possible. Prices drop when 15% of all goods are not stolen.
We need to evict the shitbags who refuse to pay their fucking rent and allow land lords to rent to decent people or put those homes up for sale. No more government moratoriums on paying fucking rent.
We need to hold America's cunts accountable for their shitty education choices and make them pay their own fucking student loans from money they earn from the shitty jobs they get with those stupid fucking degrees. Congrats you fucking dope smoking idiots, reap what your sew.
If the fuckhead Democrats would STOP giving away money, nearly every bad thing coming could be stopped. Stop pretending there is a "pandemic", there is NO pandemic........................................there is a fucking epidemic of ignorance and stupidity and it is mostly on the left. You do not have a right to a Rolex, Porsche or a new home................................their is no right of prosperity, their is no right to great personal wealth. You earn those.
AOC is literally the stupidest fucking idiot to have even been elected to public office. She is dumber than a brick. I wonder what kind of idiots voted for this dumb ass woman? It is troubling that her uninformed and ignorant opinions are considered facts. The 2022 elections need to right the ship so we can avoid the pending adjustment you are worried about.
The economy is ready to grow, we have tens of millions of new "Americans" entering the country every year, they will get jobs, open businesses and require homes, cars, appliances and access to goods and services, the economy will grow. If it grew from something other than the federal government printing money and giving it away, even better.
We really need Fuckwit Joe to stop fucking up America. We need elections where actual voters get to vote for the candidates and not tens of millions of fake voters and millions of ballots printed in China and delivered overnight.
We need law enforcement and to put millions of American scumbags in prison for as long as possible. Prices drop when 15% of all goods are not stolen.
We need to evict the shitbags who refuse to pay their fucking rent and allow land lords to rent to decent people or put those homes up for sale. No more government moratoriums on paying fucking rent.
We need to hold America's cunts accountable for their shitty education choices and make them pay their own fucking student loans from money they earn from the shitty jobs they get with those stupid fucking degrees. Congrats you fucking dope smoking idiots, reap what your sew.
If the fuckhead Democrats would STOP giving away money, nearly every bad thing coming could be stopped. Stop pretending there is a "pandemic", there is NO pandemic........................................there is a fucking epidemic of ignorance and stupidity and it is mostly on the left. You do not have a right to a Rolex, Porsche or a new home................................their is no right of prosperity, their is no right to great personal wealth. You earn those.
AOC is literally the stupidest fucking idiot to have even been elected to public office. She is dumber than a brick. I wonder what kind of idiots voted for this dumb ass woman? It is troubling that her uninformed and ignorant opinions are considered facts. The 2022 elections need to right the ship so we can avoid the pending adjustment you are worried about.
Until the Joe’s say enough is enough. Nobody is untouchable. Period. Americans are slow to anger but when they lash out, it’s bloody. History proves it. Something to also ponder. It’s not a game I would want to play. The fact that anyone thinks they can control this is crazy and that will likely be what destroys everything. But like I said, you at least won’t be alone.
Unfortunately your not wrong it will be worse. We are heading to hyperinflation depression and a currency collapse. It my not be in 2022 but it's coming
But is the general public smart enough to realize what's going on?
The same folks that bitched about the border wall live in gated estates. They advocate for disarming the public, but have armed security at all times. They advocate for the poor and then profit from their plight, and yet their power over us continues to increase. Worse yet, we allow it. Many of us advocate for it.
I love our country but have zero faith in our citizens. The sad truth is that there are way too many slow zebras in the herd. We continue to feed and support them to the detriment of ourselves and future generations. We fight against the natural order of things like we're bailing out a sinking ship with a dixie cup. Nature must take it's course. It's part of our creator's perfect design, like it or not.
Tough times are coming. I'm not as concerned with saving our country anymore as I am looking forward to rebuilding it. IMO, lets get this shit over with already and stop kicking the can down the road.
Understood. I am going to give an over simplified example.
Let's say that the minimum wage on a construction project in their State is $10 / hour. The contractor can negotiate a PLA that says he will pay $9 / hour. After a few months the workers decide they want to make $10 / hour (minimum wage) and go to the Labor Board. The Labor Board will tell them they agreed to work for less than minimum wage and they do on have a case.
During recessions I worked PLA jobs. We gave up break time, OT on weekends, safety requirements. We had to leave the tool boxes open and put our tools away after the whistle blew, on our own time.
The flip side to this is "Prevailing Wages" where local craftsmen make $10 / hour and if they work a prevailing wage job they would make $12 / hour.
Roughly how a PLA works.
Yeah I love it when I keep hearing this anytime you criticize whatever economic 'plan' Biden has. Which now that I've said that out loud - he has actually NEVER had an actual plan in regards to the economy other than 'pass this gigantic pork bill with literally nothing in it that will help literally 99% of people and the economy will boom!'.
Saying our economy is doing well is exactly like those people who live off of credit cards and loans nonstop, keep buying shit on credit, 100% finance everything and can barely afford food afterwards.....but they are doing GREAT! because look at all of the shit they have.
I guess for me it comes down to who is really running this country. .GOV? I'm not buying that - rich fucking multi trillion dollar Corps are running the show *because* it's all about The Money all the time, everywhere on the planet. My perspective is: If I really thought it was all going to fall down/collapse - forever never to return? I'd sell it all now (my investments) buy gold and bullets and food and hide it under the bed.
I'm not doing that. Because as bad as it is, the Rich Mother Fuckers that own and operate the world are *NOT* going broke in the near future/my Life Time. We may disagree and I'm fine with that. People been screaming "The End is Coming!" my whole
life and I played way too close to the vest in investments. Meanwhile, The Oligarchs got richer and richer in complete defiance of the odds. Set backs and recessions and crashes? Yup - to be expected. But in the end The Rich will continue to get richer in exponential ways during the rest of my Life. I'm putting my money where they put theirs. Been reaping me huge money since I stopped believing that it's all gonna crash *tomorrow* and in final. Nope. Not buying that. Rough times? Been there done that. But it'll resolve itself and if it *doesn't* then all the money in the world will be worth less than 6 rounds of 38 Special.
VooDoo
I'm not doing that. Because as bad as it is, the Rich Mother Fuckers that own and operate the world are *NOT* going broke in the near future/my Life Time. We may disagree and I'm fine with that. People been screaming "The End is Coming!" my whole
life and I played way too close to the vest in investments. Meanwhile, The Oligarchs got richer and richer in complete defiance of the odds. Set backs and recessions and crashes? Yup - to be expected. But in the end The Rich will continue to get richer in exponential ways during the rest of my Life. I'm putting my money where they put theirs. Been reaping me huge money since I stopped believing that it's all gonna crash *tomorrow* and in final. Nope. Not buying that. Rough times? Been there done that. But it'll resolve itself and if it *doesn't* then all the money in the world will be worth less than 6 rounds of 38 Special.
VooDoo
People are not the same as before. So I’m not so sure! If all this shit and bills they pass and try to pass happened in 1940, we would already have new leadership!
Aren't PLAs based on prevailing wage rates set by the comptroller though? In other words, the rates aren't based on law?
I can't imagine that PLAs would supercede minimum wage laws. I don't know anything about this, so I'll take your word for it.
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