Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[Hobo Hilton]

After 8 long years of ultra-loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, it’s no secret that inflation is primed to soar.

The Ukraine Conflict Is Just a Sideshow, and We Are the Real Targets

Guest Post by Brandon Smith Way back in 2014 I wrote an article titled False East/West Paradigm Hides the Rise of Global Currency. I was inspired to cover the issue due to three specific trends whi…

www.theburningplatform.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

They've been acquiring not just more new clients, but bigger accounts too, according to the firm. The average size of Merrill's new client households reached $1.7 million in the first quarter, up 25% from the same period a year ago, according to the firm, which is part of Bank of America's wealth management business.
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One more clue of an impending recession is when the money people, who were managing their own portfolio, tuck their tails between their legs and give their savings to a firm like Merrill Lynch to manage. During the Great Recession (2008-2009) Merrill Lynch lost a boat load of their clients money.

Merrill Lynch Advisors Are Bringing in Bigger and Bigger Clients

The average size of Merrill’s new client households reached $1.7 million in the first quarter, up 25% from the same period a year ago.

www.barrons.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

For you outdoorsmen who spend time in the woods or on the river, we always take note of the first changes of the leaves on the trees... Perhaps it's just an indicator that Mother Nature has instilled in us. It has always been an accurate indicator of the season changing.
The coming recession is very similar to the onset of Fall going into Winter. I was out early, around my small town this morning. There are a few sales yards for portable, back yard storage sheds. For the past two summer's they could not keep a stock of sheds. As soon as one was dropped off one of the transplants bought it to store all of their extra stuff after moving and downsizing. Now, I've noticed the sales yards all have several sheds sitting on their lots. For the first time this morning, I am now seeing large signs advertising "FINANCING AVAILABLE". Hmmmm...... The autumn leaves of the recession are starting to change colors. Inflation has started nibbling at American's budget's. Coming down to choices of renting a storage unit versus buying a back yard storage shed. As long as "FINANCING" is less than storage unit rental, people will start to finance. When the recession hits bottom, those with storage units will sell off stuff and release the storage unit rental fees. Not so easy to do that with a back yard shed when a person can buy a new one on the lot and not have the cost of moving the shed to a new location. The changes are all around us. Pay attention.

 

[Bigfatcock]

For you outdoorsmen who spend time in the woods or on the river, we always take note of the first changes of the leaves on the trees... Perhaps it's just an indicator that Mother Nature has instilled in us. It has always been an accurate indicator of the season changing.
The coming recession is very similar to the onset of Fall going into Winter. I was out early, around my small town this morning. There are a few sales yards for portable, back yard storage sheds. For the past two summer's they could not keep a stock of sheds. As soon as one was dropped off one of the transplants bought it to store all of their extra stuff after moving and downsizing. Now, I've noticed the sales yards all have several sheds sitting on their lots. For the first time this morning, I am now seeing large signs advertising "FINANCING AVAILABLE". Hmmmm...... The autumn leaves of the recession are starting to change colors. Inflation has started nibbling at American's budget's. Coming down to choices of renting a storage unit versus buying a back yard storage shed. As long as "FINANCING" is less than storage unit rental, people will start to finance. When the recession hits bottom, those with storage units will sell off stuff and release the storage unit rental fees. Not so easy to do that with a back yard shed when a person can buy a new one on the lot and not have the cost of moving the shed to a new location. The changes are all around us. Pay attention.

I’ve noticed the same with trailers. A year ago you couldn’t get an enclosed trailer within a 2 state area. Now lots are full of them. Of course the lack of trailers coincided with U-Haul charging $800 to rent a tow trailer, lol.

I said for a long time that $4 gas would be the domino.

Housing demand will drop due to higher rates, with only institutions buying at some point. This will probably lead to a more drastic housing shortage down the road.

It’s all starting to come together.

My canary is still the luxury and used luxury goods market. People aren’t pulling back yet, nor is the used market increasing yet.

Also, rent for life is going to be a thing. I feel semi bad for those who don’t own homes yet.

 

[HiDesertELR]

I'm looking to sit on some cash and keep an eye out for the "toys" people will need to unload. When I see boats, sleds, ATVs, jet-skis en masse on Craigslist, I think that will be the time to start acquiring the big ticket items for a fraction of what they are right now.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I'm looking to sit on some cash and keep an eye out for the "toys" people will need to unload. When I see boats, sleds, ATVs, jet-skis en masse on Craigslist, I think that will be the time to start acquiring the big ticket items for a fraction of what they are right now.

The time will come. Not really looking for luxury goods anymore, just padding out supplies.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I’ve noticed the same with trailers. A year ago you couldn’t get an enclosed trailer within a 2 state area. Now lots are full of them. Of course the lack of trailers coincided with U-Haul charging $800 to rent a tow trailer, lol.

I said for a long time that $4 gas would be the domino.

Housing demand will drop due to higher rates, with only institutions buying at some point. This will probably lead to a more drastic housing shortage down the road.

It’s all starting to come together.

My canary is still the luxury and used luxury goods market. People aren’t pulling back yet, nor is the used market increasing yet.

Also, rent for life is going to be a thing. I feel semi bad for those who don’t own homes yet.

There are a few of us old timer's who have made the transition (3 times or more) from Upper Middle Class down to being a member of the "Poor's".... After a while, it's not as traumatic. In fact, it becomes an entertaining game of "Challenge".

 

[HiDesertELR]

The time will come. Not really looking for luxury goods anymore, just padding out supplies.

LOL, yeah I'm not shopping for jet-skis and toys - I need an 5th Wheel, a 35hp tractor, shipping container, chainsaw(s), etc..

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I'm looking to sit on some cash and keep an eye out for the "toys" people will need to unload. When I see boats, sleds, ATVs, jet-skis en masse on Craigslist, I think that will be the time to start acquiring the big ticket items for a fraction of what they are right now.

Like sitting in a tree stand on a beautiful Wednesday afternoon while the slaves are working in the coal mines and having that big old trophy buck amble down the path eating some acorns. Patience, he will be there... Just like clock work.

 

[Inifinty]

Fabricated Barf

 

[Hobo Hilton]

LOL, yeah I'm not shopping for jet-skis and toys - I need an 5th Wheel, a 35hp tractor, shipping container, chainsaw(s), etc..

Two weeks before Christmas, you can take your pick.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Fabricated Barf

Yep, yep, yep..... Just like clock work. I bet Walmart has their Christmas stuff sitting in containers on their back parking lot at the store.... LOL

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The people who are being "priced out" of the housing market will become desperate as the year progresses....

Millions of homebuyers in America have been priced out since the start of the year — economists say it's likely to get worse

Rising mortgage rates are locking out homebuyers in America alongside low supply and the rise of all-cash and investment purchases.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Bigfatcock]

The people who are being "priced out" of the housing market will become desperate as the year progresses....

Millions of homebuyers in America have been priced out since the start of the year — economists say it's likely to get worse

Rising mortgage rates are locking out homebuyers in America alongside low supply and the rise of all-cash and investment purchases.

www.businessinsider.com

They will just rent for life, with the cost of rent rising with inflation and home values, while their pay stagnates.

Anyone who does not own a home, should really be evaluating their priorities.

I might be the last landlord on earth that hasn’t raised rent in a decade, lol. If my long term renters ever move out, new leases will be at current market rate which is over a 100% increase from what my rents are now.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“The war will slow economic growth and increase inflation," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters on Tuesday.

Citing Russia's war, IMF cuts global growth forecast to 3.6%

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded the outlook for the world economy this year and next

abcnews.go.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

"Bread and Circuses" , Juvenal (Died: 2nd century AD)
...something, as extravagant entertainment, offered as an expedient means of pacifying discontent or diverting attention from a source of grievance.
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Once again, I have pulled out a very old piece of satire I used as America descended into previous recessions.
An entire civilization was locked down for an extended period of time. "Entertainment" was never ending with streaming video. "Food" was also never ending. Send your food order to the grocery store and just wheel up to the curb where food was loaded in your car. When simply driving to the grocery store became a distraction from entertainment, there was Door Dash or Grubhub.

The time has come to Pay the Piper for the Bread and Circuses.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Just like clock work. Nothing like a recession to force people to patch up that old clunker and get a few more miles out of it.

Genuine Parts Company Reports First Quarter 2022 Results

Genuine Parts Company (NYSE: GPC) announced today its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2022.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[NoDopes]

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/business/article260590022.html

MR. POTATO HEAD, MAGIC THE GATHERING, AND MONOPOLY WILL ALL GET MORE EXPENSIVE Between those factors, the company announced that it would be raising prices on toys and games across the board but did not provide details of specific numbers or percentages

This thread is going to accelerate.

 

[Bigfatcock]

It’s all Russia’s fault.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Hmmmm .... "Hard Landing", no shit

After stocks plunged this week, here's how to protect your finances during a period of uncertainty: 'A hard landing will ultimately be unavoidable'

There's a 35% chance of a downturn in the next 24 months, Goldman Sachs forecasts.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

LIVE: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen holds a briefing at the IMF World Bank Meetings — 4/21/22​

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Some how, it's headline news that consumer's kept spending. Duh, they spent at gas stations and grocery stores. They really did not have a choice.

Retail sales data is not adjusted for inflation. Consequently, the biggest gain in sales for the month game at gas stations, which saw an 8.9% increase in sales as gasoline prices rose 18.3% during the period. The sector has seen a 37% sales burst over the past year.

Retail sales rose 0.5% in March amid inflation jump; import prices hit 11-year high

Retail sales were expected to increase 0.6% in March, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Oil over $100. DXY over $100. US 10yr almost 3%. IMF cuts global GDP growth forecast. China’s economy slows. – Investment Watch

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The beginning of the stampede.....

Market Watch: Investors just pulled a massive $17.5 billion out of global equities. They're just getting started, says Bank of America

Market Watch: Investors just pulled a massive $17.5 billion out of global equities. They're just getting started, says Bank of America

www.learcapital.com

 

[babyguppy]

LOL, overheated economy.

Fmr. Obama Treasury Counselor Rattner: There’s ‘No Precedent’ for Fixing Inflation in Economy This Overheated Without a Recession​

link

 

[n2ishun]

Y'all spell depression funny.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“We are trying to let the markets know where we see the economy going and why monetary policy needs to move off of that real extraordinary level of accommodation that was needed at the start of the pandemic."......... Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
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I doubt that Loretta is digging for loose change to put gas in her car or to buy groceries at the local market. She started working for the Federal Reserve at the age of 27 and has been there since 1985. I find nothing that says she has ever worked in the private sector. That explains why she makes statements like the above. A person making policy yet has no clue where the market is going. Unfortunate for the man on Main Street.

Fed's Mester casts doubt on the need for 'shock' interest rate hikes ahead

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she's in favor of raising interest rates quickly, but not so quickly as to disrupt the economic recovery.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Mike Islander]

All this plus an unbelievable housing "boom". My stupid little house went up in value by 48% since December.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

... It's stressing an important point: So far, US consumers are still spending freely, but much of that appears down to ubiquitously higher prices rather than increased consumption. Even though Americans still have pent-up savings from the lockdown days of the pandemic, inflation levels not seen in 40 years don't exactly make people go on extravagant shopping sprees. Eventually, this reality will catch up with US economic growth, which needs healthy consumer spending.
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Everyone (From the miners bring out the minerals, to the farmer turning dirt, to the food processing giants to the trucking industry, etc) are using up their spare parts, spare fuel, spare seeds, spare boots and spare tires... I have participated in this stretching of resources myself, more than once. Those terms said jokengly like "don't spend it all at one place" .. or ... ".. last one, make it last" will soon be said seriously. Don't start pulling out of your stores thinking you can replace those items. You might not be able to due to price or shortages. Conserve
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America's pandemic recovery has slowed to a crawl

Investors are gearing up for a week of big ticket economic data, including a first look at economic growth between January and March and more inflation numbers.

www.cnn.com

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

Exactly like the Obama "recovery" . Just ridiculously stupid policy that makes recession guaranteed and guaranteed to last until they are out of power.

 

[lariat]

... It's stressing an important point: So far, US consumers are still spending freely, but much of that appears down to ubiquitously higher prices rather than increased consumption. Even though Americans still have pent-up savings from the lockdown days of the pandemic, inflation levels not seen in 40 years don't exactly make people go on extravagant shopping sprees. Eventually, this reality will catch up with US economic growth, which needs healthy consumer spending.
____________________________________________________
Everyone (From the miners bring out the minerals, to the farmer turning dirt, to the food processing giants to the trucking industry, etc) are using up their spare parts, spare fuel, spare seeds, spare boots and spare tires... I have participated in this stretching of resources myself, more than once. Those terms said jokengly like "don't spend it all at one place" .. or ... ".. last one, make it last" will soon be said seriously. Don't start pulling out of your stores thinking you can replace those items. You might not be able to due to price or shortages. Conserve
__________________________________

America's pandemic recovery has slowed to a crawl

Investors are gearing up for a week of big ticket economic data, including a first look at economic growth between January and March and more inflation numbers.

www.cnn.com

This is exactly what I stated more than a month ago. We are using our inventory and not replenishing it. When items start to become scarce they will do do quickly and add lost without warning (seemingly). Then everyone will move to the secondary (alternate) item and it will happen again. Those ships stacked up in China are a huge issue that is only adding to the problem. As is the fertilizer shortage.

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

Hopefully the food holds out through end of May. We are going to the farmers market and buying a ton of veggies and canning them. I will also have seeds but I just don't have the time for a garden with work so busy. Also, I can buy produce at the farmers market in bulk and have a canning party with my dad and put up a lot of dang food in a Saturday. I suggest everyone who's paying attention do this. It's only a day of work and you can put up many months of food that will last for 10+ years depending on storage. Some much longer.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Hopefully the food holds out through end of May. We are going to the farmers market and buying a ton of veggies and canning them. I will also have seeds but I just don't have the time for a garden with work so busy. Also, I can buy produce at the farmers market in bulk and have a canning party with my dad and put up a lot of dang food in a Saturday. I suggest everyone who's paying attention do this. It's only a day of work and you can put up many months of food that will last for 10+ years depending on storage. Some much longer.

Some of the local farmers offer a "Feed Bag" program. For a fee you are given a large cloth bag. The bag can be filled once a week at the farmers market or at the actual farm that has a cooler and seasonal produce. Not cheap but it gives the vegan's a sure deal without going to the grocery store. I'm not a vegan but I get a bag and share with some of the less fortunate folks I know.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

.......... But for retailers and wholesalers and for industries related to producing, transporting or storing consumer goods, the party is very likely over.

Opinion: Spending on consumer goods will likely plummet in the second half of the year

With the fear of Covid-19 on the wane, consumers are spending much more on in-person services, like travel and entertainment, powering an impressive comeback in that sector.

www.cnn.com

 

[babyguppy]

anyone watch the news and see the report on food processing plants burning to the ground? I think Tucker said in the past 6 months 18 have burned.
link
This hasn't hit mainstream news, so, that means someone is trying to keep it quiet.

more info link

 

[Hobo Hilton]

anyone watch the news and see the report on food processing plants burning to the ground? I think Tucker said in the past 6 months 18 have burned.
link
This hasn't hit mainstream news, so, that means someone is trying to keep it quiet.

more info link

I have followed that news for quite a while..... Some sensationalism, some facts but above all a "warning" to get ready for a bumpy ride. It is the entire food chain from disappearing crop land to plant based food..... Figure out what you like to eat and get stocked up and plant it in your garden. I'm getting onion, garlic and carrots started at this time. Staples.

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

anyone watch the news and see the report on food processing plants burning to the ground? I think Tucker said in the past 6 months 18 have burned.
link
This hasn't hit mainstream news, so, that means someone is trying to keep it quiet.

more info link

18 in the last 6 months???? Thats seems impossible without foul play involved???

 

[babyguppy]

18 in the last 6 months???? Thats seems impossible without foul play involved???

two were hit by airplanes. Like Tucker said, not to start a conspiracy theory, but the coincidences are uncanny.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Time for many Americans to get themselves a Home Depot bucket, a bag of Miracle Grow Potting soil and a packet of seeds.......... The summer session of "Farming 101" has started.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Stifel transportation analyst Bert Subin said in a research note that he expects soft truckload demand in the second and third quarters, followed by a holiday season-fueled fourth-quarter rebound. Deutsche Bank earlier this month predicted interest rate hikes will tip the United States into recession next year.

Analysis-U.S. trucking downturn foreshadows possible economic gloom

By Lisa Baertlein (Reuters) - Craig Fuller monitors millions of transactions between U.S. truckers and their customers as chief executive of transport...

wtvbam.com

 

[devildog93]

Time for many Americans to get themselves a Home Depot bucket, a bag of Miracle Grow Potting soil and a packet of seeds.......... The summer session of "Farming 101" has started.

I have tomatoes, okra, corn and a few other things going with my wife eagerly awaiting harvesting with a canning and dehydrating room ready to go. I am pretty lucky on that end. She is in gear to roll the clock back to our grandparent's level of readiness and is interested in it enough for both of us.

 

[Mike Islander]

We're all about protein right now. Deer, turkey, squirrel, fish, shrimp.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I have tomatoes, okra, corn and a few other things going with my wife eagerly awaiting harvesting with a canning and dehydrating room ready to go. I am pretty lucky on that end. She is in gear to roll the clock back to our grandparent's level of readiness and is interested in it enough for both of us.

You are fortunate to have a partner that will work with you.... Still cool here. Working on getting any grass out of my boxes before planting. Canning meat frequently...

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I'm not here to quibble over the inflation rate. Each of you guy's have a number in the back of your head that is particular to your life style. Just pointing out how the numbers presented by the FED really don't pertain to the real life of the average American. Inflation is skewing the numbers. New order's did not keep up with inflation.

New orders for US manufactured durable goods increased 0.8 percent month-over-month in March of 2022​

United States Durable Goods Orders - August 2023 Data - 1992-2022 Historical

New orders for manufactured durable goods in the US plummeted by 5.2% in July 2023, following a downwardly revised growth of 4.4% in June and exceeding market expectations for a 4.0% decline. It was the sharpest decrease in durable goods orders since the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak in...

tradingeconomics.com

​

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Words of wisdom - Get out of debt, immediately. Start doing without. Money in the bank is still "Money in the Bank". When you drive into a thunderstorm, do you roll up the windows on your truck ?
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Stock market investors should understand that the Federal Reserve won't ride to their rescue this year given the outlook for inflation.

The 'Fed put' is gone for now, top Wall Street strategist says

Stock market investors should understand that the Federal Reserve won't ride to their rescue this year given the outlook for inflation.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[babyguppy]

Words of wisdom - Get out of debt, immediately. Start doing without. Money in the bank is still "Money in the Bank". When you drive into a thunderstorm, do you roll up the windows on your truck ?
_________________

Stock market investors should understand that the Federal Reserve won't ride to their rescue this year given the outlook for inflation.

The 'Fed put' is gone for now, top Wall Street strategist says

Stock market investors should understand that the Federal Reserve won't ride to their rescue this year given the outlook for inflation.

www.marketwatch.com

that would imply you have gas to drive your truck (aka expendable income)

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Stock market - Blood in the street
Only 2 companies out of the NASDAQ 100 finished in the green...
One of the two was O'Reilly Automotive Inc. ...... For you guys who would rather open your wallet than your tool box, best go wipe those tools off and get ready to keep that old beater on the road. Better yet, buy yourself a "parts car" similar to the beater you are driving so you can shop for parts in your back yard. Deja Vu

O'Reilly Automotive Inc., ORLY Quick Chart - (NAS) ORLY, O'Reilly Automotive Inc. Stock Price - BigCharts.com

ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive Inc. Basic Chart, Quote and financial news from the leading provider and award-winning BigCharts.com.

bigcharts.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Hearing it much more often, still not one of my favorite terms.... force majeure

Exxon declares force majeure on Russian Sakhalin-1 operations

Exxon Mobil Corp said on Wednesday its Russian unit Exxon Neftegas Ltd has declared force majeure for its Sakhalin-1 operations due to sanctions on Russia that have made it increasingly difficult to ship crude to customers.

www.reuters.com

 

[babyguppy]

Hearing it much more often, still not one of my favorite terms.... force majeure

Exxon declares force majeure on Russian Sakhalin-1 operations

Exxon Mobil Corp said on Wednesday its Russian unit Exxon Neftegas Ltd has declared force majeure for its Sakhalin-1 operations due to sanctions on Russia that have made it increasingly difficult to ship crude to customers.

www.reuters.com

I like 'reservation of all rights' ; keeps you from getting fk'd when insurance companies writes 'paid in full on a check'; . You just put that on the back under your signature
edit - and with a little more research (since it's been awhile)
Any expression indicating an intention to reserve rights is sufficient such as “without prejudice.”

This “Reservation of Rights, without prejudice.” can be exercised by making the following notion above your signature on contracts and agreements and other documents requiring your signature.
link
more links

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Appears the FED Reserve people are MIA....

The Economy Shrank Last Quarter. Why It’s Not Time to Panic.

The negative reading will feed into recession concerns as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy, but some economists see underlying strength.

www.marketwatch.com