Anyone saying no recession coming is kind of a retard. The reason I say kind of is because we may not have a recession, but a depression that instead.
Opinion: It's time to prepare for a recession
There is a toxic brew of external economic headwinds, including the war in Ukraine and Covid lockdowns in China, resulting in supply shocks that boost inflation and slow growth.www.cnn.com
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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
Here is a definition:
'Recessions' vs. 'Depressions' in the Economy
Taking stock of the differences
www.merriam-webster.com
This definition is incorrect. A recession is when your neighbor is out of work. A depression is when YOU are out of work.Here is a definition:
'Recessions' vs. 'Depressions' in the Economy
Taking stock of the differences
It’s all perspective. That’s why there is never a recession or depression in DC, and the lack thereof is why the politicians, admin, lobbyists and think tanks don’t relate to what the rest of America is going through.
If the strippers are calling it out you KNOW all of the discretionary income in the economy is gone.
ETA: I had to see for myself:
Strippers say a crash is guaranteed because the strip clubs are suddenly empty
Some strippers on Twitter said they think a recession and market crash is guaranteed - because the strip clubs are suddenly empty.A woman who goes by @botticellibimbo on the platform said the following about the clubs: "The strip club is sadly a leading indicator, and I can promise y'all we r in...
www.indy100.com
Scanned the British / European news this morning... appears that they just awakened to the recession. Some of the quotes were borderline "panic" about the increase in cost, both business and personal. One thing that really jumped out was the request that the Government give them more of an allowance to off set increasing cost. That old saying came to mind...
"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is a government big enough to take away everything that you have."
"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is a government big enough to take away everything that you have."
I don't understand why they all don't just take out a federal loan for nursing school. It will probably be forgiven anyway.If the strippers are calling it out you KNOW all of the discretionary income in the economy is gone.
ETA: I had to see for myself:
Strippers say a crash is guaranteed because the strip clubs are suddenly empty
Some strippers on Twitter said they think a recession and market crash is guaranteed - because the strip clubs are suddenly empty.A woman who goes by @botticellibimbo on the platform said the following about the clubs: "The strip club is sadly a leading indicator, and I can promise y'all we r in...
Any time now, I am expecting the "Manufacturing Segment" to add an new sub - section:
Propaganda / Lies / Snake Oil / Biden Statements
For sure, that is the fastest growing and largest section of American manufacturing.
The World is laughing at us.
Fertilizer Prices Drop 30% Following Demand Destruction
(Bloomberg) -- Fertilizer prices that had hit records are now plunging as buyers reel from sticker shock, but that doesn’t mean the market squeeze is over. Most Read from BloombergFord Beats Tesla to the Punch With First Electric F-150 DeliveryUkraine Latest: US Slams Putin’s Food-for-Sanctions...
I wonder if we’ll get the savage deflation we had in 2008 with the recession.
Sure hope so!
New Wall Street word of the day 'Demand destruction', I've see it in several articles. aka - weaking demand due to high prices.
I guess it makes a writer feel edgy and powerful to toss the word 'destruction' in their article. sighs...
Yup, you crank those fk'n prices up and people quit buying crap, growing crap, and driving crap.
I guess it makes a writer feel edgy and powerful to toss the word 'destruction' in their article. sighs...
Yup, you crank those fk'n prices up and people quit buying crap, growing crap, and driving crap.
Demand destruction has been a term in economics for decades. Whether or not the authors of the article actually understand the fundamentals of the term is completely up for debate.
Savage deflation is not in the FED's play book.... They want to stay out of the spotlight and only show their face once a month without being called out. It's our money they are using to slow down the glide pattern in hopes of a soft landing... This is going to be long and painful for the Man on Main Street.Fertilizer Prices Drop 30% Following Demand Destruction
(Bloomberg) -- Fertilizer prices that had hit records are now plunging as buyers reel from sticker shock, but that doesn’t mean the market squeeze is over. Most Read from BloombergFord Beats Tesla to the Punch With First Electric F-150 DeliveryUkraine Latest: US Slams Putin’s Food-for-Sanctions...finance.yahoo.com
I wonder if we’ll get the savage deflation we had in 2008 with the recession.
Sure hope so!
Honestly, it’s what Powell wanted. However, I still believe interest rates need to go to 10% or higher…immediately.
Low income, and lower middle class (if that’s a thing) have been broke AF since January. Buying needs to slow down at higher income levels.
On the flip side, Fed also wants lower wages to fight inflation as well.
Understood. I know Fed doesn’t want it, but I’m wondering if it’s going to happen again, and as dramatically as the recession.
I’ve been very happy with my bill lumber purchases this month. Much cheaper than when I started in Jan/Feb.
You are correct... No one seems to look at the frequency of "Demand destruction".. If this phenomenon repeats itself too quickly, a global economy does not have time to fully recuperate. What we would have then are economies that will simply stair step down. One of you guy's used the phrase of taking the elevator to go down and the stairs to go back up. A pandemic, followed closely by a recession is two stair steps down. 2023 would certainly a bad time for the Black Swan to appear.
If the FED could wave it's Magic Wand and make gasoline / diesel prices hover at $3.99 / gallon that would prolong the dead stick glide. It would only allow time for wages to increase minimally. Taxes, insurance and health care cost will all increase in an effort to catch up. Remember, we will be waiting on the rest of the world to catch up, also.
Opinions from people "in the market or reporting the markets"
“I think the Fed is going to have to decide between two policy mistakes: Hit the brakes too hard and risk a recession or tap the brakes in a stop and go pattern – including a pause in the September meeting would be an example of that – and risk having inflation well into 2023.” Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg TV, May 27, 2022
May 25 – Bloomberg (Liz Capo McCormick, Alexandra Harris and Charles Williams): “The Treasuries market is girding for potential disruptions from the next and trickiest stage of policy makers’ tightening campaign: the shrinking of an $8.5 trillion bond portfolio. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May policy meeting revealed ‘several’ policy makers saw risk of ‘unanticipated effects’ on markets from the US central bank’s plans to let billions of dollars worth of bonds to mature each month without replacing them.”
May 25 – Reuters (Gus Trompiz and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin): “After making it through the spring planting season, sometimes with the help of bulletproof vests and helmets, Ukraine's farmers are facing another challenge – finding enough diesel for the harvest to come. The war with Russia cut fuel supplies just as farmers stepped up work for the spring season and they have lost about 85% of their normal supplies since the conflict started on Feb. 24, farmers, fuel distributors and analysts say.”
May 22 – Financial Times (Kaye Wiggins, Antoine Gara and Jamie Smyth): “The three-decade era of globalisation risks going into reverse according to company executives and investors, as world leaders prepare to meet in the Swiss town of Davos… The geopolitical fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine, combined with the disruption to global supply chains caused by the virus, recent market turmoil and the rapidly worsening economic outlook leave corporate leaders and investors grappling with vital strategic decisions… ‘Tension between the US and China was accelerated by the pandemic and now this invasion of Ukraine by Russia — all these trends are raising serious concerns about a decoupling world,’ said José Manuel Barroso, chair of Goldman Sachs International and a former president of the European Commission.”
Next week should be interesting with only 4 trading days.
“I think the Fed is going to have to decide between two policy mistakes: Hit the brakes too hard and risk a recession or tap the brakes in a stop and go pattern – including a pause in the September meeting would be an example of that – and risk having inflation well into 2023.” Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg TV, May 27, 2022
May 25 – Bloomberg (Liz Capo McCormick, Alexandra Harris and Charles Williams): “The Treasuries market is girding for potential disruptions from the next and trickiest stage of policy makers’ tightening campaign: the shrinking of an $8.5 trillion bond portfolio. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May policy meeting revealed ‘several’ policy makers saw risk of ‘unanticipated effects’ on markets from the US central bank’s plans to let billions of dollars worth of bonds to mature each month without replacing them.”
May 25 – Reuters (Gus Trompiz and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin): “After making it through the spring planting season, sometimes with the help of bulletproof vests and helmets, Ukraine's farmers are facing another challenge – finding enough diesel for the harvest to come. The war with Russia cut fuel supplies just as farmers stepped up work for the spring season and they have lost about 85% of their normal supplies since the conflict started on Feb. 24, farmers, fuel distributors and analysts say.”
May 22 – Financial Times (Kaye Wiggins, Antoine Gara and Jamie Smyth): “The three-decade era of globalisation risks going into reverse according to company executives and investors, as world leaders prepare to meet in the Swiss town of Davos… The geopolitical fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine, combined with the disruption to global supply chains caused by the virus, recent market turmoil and the rapidly worsening economic outlook leave corporate leaders and investors grappling with vital strategic decisions… ‘Tension between the US and China was accelerated by the pandemic and now this invasion of Ukraine by Russia — all these trends are raising serious concerns about a decoupling world,’ said José Manuel Barroso, chair of Goldman Sachs International and a former president of the European Commission.”
Next week should be interesting with only 4 trading days.
Here is an article from 2 weeks ago when the national average of gasoline was $4.50 and today it is $4.610.
www.zerohedge.com
www.cnn.com
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
AAA Gas Prices
gasprices.aaa.com
Memorial Day gas prices hit 10-year high adjusted for inflation
Gas prices are painfully high this Memorial Day weekend as millions of Americans hit the road for the unofficial start of summer.
Just for perspective....
www.fisherinvestments.com
For the record, I do my own investments and read a lot but trust very few people to help me make decisions. Fisher Investments, founded by an Uber Smarty Pants Ken Fisher back in 1979, has been a reliable source of information to me over the last 10 or so years - they are not always correct but their perspective is usually 90% and even though their opinions are sometimes contrary to "what the Big Kids are saying" (Fisher manages $150 *Billion* so maybe they are Big Kids?) I have found them to be spot on or nearly so much more than other credible sources.
VooDoo
Surveys Still Say No to Global Recession
The latest flash PMIs suggest economic activity is holding up better than many think.
www.fisherinvestments.com
For the record, I do my own investments and read a lot but trust very few people to help me make decisions. Fisher Investments, founded by an Uber Smarty Pants Ken Fisher back in 1979, has been a reliable source of information to me over the last 10 or so years - they are not always correct but their perspective is usually 90% and even though their opinions are sometimes contrary to "what the Big Kids are saying" (Fisher manages $150 *Billion* so maybe they are Big Kids?) I have found them to be spot on or nearly so much more than other credible sources.
VooDoo
I read his survey. I think he is wrong. But I'm not managing $159,611,530,686 of other people's money. Time will tell.Just for perspective....
Surveys Still Say No to Global Recession
The latest flash PMIs suggest economic activity is holding up better than many think.
For the record, I do my own investments and read a lot but trust very few people to help me make decisions. Fisher Investments, founded by an Uber Smarty Pants Ken Fisher back in 1979, has been a reliable source of information to me over the last 10 or so years - they are not always correct but their perspective is usually 90% and even though their opinions are sometimes contrary to "what the Big Kids are saying" (Fisher manages $150 *Billion* so maybe they are Big Kids?) I have found them to be spot on or nearly so much more than other credible sources.
VooDoo
Fisher Investments Review | SmartAsset.com
Thinking of working with an advisor at Fisher Investments? Our review take an in-depth look at the firm's fees, services, investment approach and more.
smartasset.com
Seems to be some conflicting info out there.... The FED says consumer's did not add more credit card debt this year.
Meanwhile:
The most recent release (March 2022) showed a staggering 35.3 percent annualized increase in revolving debt (which is primarily credit card debt). That was the largest jump, in percentage terms, since April 1998. Total revolving debt is now just 0.2 percentage points below the all-time high established in Feb. 2020.
American's are spending themselves into the "Poor House".
Meanwhile:
The most recent release (March 2022) showed a staggering 35.3 percent annualized increase in revolving debt (which is primarily credit card debt). That was the largest jump, in percentage terms, since April 1998. Total revolving debt is now just 0.2 percentage points below the all-time high established in Feb. 2020.
American's are spending themselves into the "Poor House".
Credit Card Debt And Interest Rates Are Both Heading Toward Record Highs | Bankrate
After plunging in 2020, credit card balances and interest rates are on the rise.
www.bankrate.com
all debt minus mortgage debt now exceeds 25% for households. we have never had a recession with that. Add to that home prices, rising rates and I hope you got cash cause real estate is going on sale!Seems to be some conflicting info out there.... The FED says consumer's did not add more credit card debt this year.
Meanwhile:
The most recent release (March 2022) showed a staggering 35.3 percent annualized increase in revolving debt (which is primarily credit card debt). That was the largest jump, in percentage terms, since April 1998. Total revolving debt is now just 0.2 percentage points below the all-time high established in Feb. 2020.
American's are spending themselves into the "Poor House".
Credit Card Debt And Interest Rates Are Both Heading Toward Record Highs | Bankrate
After plunging in 2020, credit card balances and interest rates are on the rise.www.bankrate.com
Obviously the US Government / FED Reserve are all caught up in their own lies. "We the People" are paying to be lied too.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI is at a current level of 55.40, down from 57.10 last month and down from 60.70 one year ago. This is a change of -2.98% from last month and -8.73% from one year ago.
ycharts.com
US ISM Manufacturing PMI is at a current level of 55.40, down from 57.10 last month and down from 60.70 one year ago. This is a change of -2.98% from last month and -8.73% from one year ago.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Trends | YCharts
In depth view into US ISM Manufacturing PMI including historical data from 1948 to 2024, charts and stats.
ycharts.com
“You know, I said there’s storm clouds but I’m going to change it… it’s a hurricane,” Dimon said Wednesday at a financial conference in New York. While conditions seem “fine” at the moment, nobody knows if the hurricane is “a minor one or Superstorm Sandy,” he added.
www.cnbc.com
Jamie Dimon says 'brace yourself' for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war
"You know, I said there's storm clouds but I'm going to change it … it's a hurricane," Dimon said Wednesday at a financial conference in New York.
www.cnbc.com
The Biden administration is keeping its head in the ground as the US economy is on its way to catastrophe. At the White House and on corporate networks Tuesday, several of President Joe Biden’s economic advisors tried to downplay the severity of rampant inflation and chocked supply chain.
Drink the Koolaid
www.oann.com
Drink the Koolaid
Biden reportedly frustrated with his White House staff’s handling of inflation
The Biden administration is keeping its head in the ground as the US economy is on its way to catastrophe. At the White House and on corporate networks Tuesday, several of President Joe Biden's economic advisors tried to downplay the severity of rampant inflation and chocked supply chain.
www.oann.com
Another good overview fir those needing it in crayon.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/...population-forecast-it-now-makes-total-sense/
How things are unfolding, why and what will be coming.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/...population-forecast-it-now-makes-total-sense/
How things are unfolding, why and what will be coming.
If anyone posted this 3 years ago, I would have called them a retard.
Today, I just say thanks. It’s not far fetched AT ALL!
Sad part is the sheer amount of goldfish cheering on the creation of the WWIII part, food shortage, and fertilizer shortage parts with their dumbass ukraine avatars.
"Blame".... There is a never ending list of reasons when things start to go bad..... Always somebody else's fault.
Microsoft (MSFT) - Get Microsoft Corporation Report shares slumped lower Thursday after the tech giant cut its near-term earnings forecast thanks in part to headwinds linked to the strength of the U.S. dollar.
www.thestreet.com
Microsoft (MSFT) - Get Microsoft Corporation Report shares slumped lower Thursday after the tech giant cut its near-term earnings forecast thanks in part to headwinds linked to the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Microsoft Cuts Earnings Guidance Amid Surging U.S. Dollar Headwind
Microsoft cut its near-term earnings forecast Thursday, citing the headwind impact of the strongest U.S. dollar in more than two decades.
www.thestreet.com
A snapshot of the future... The past 6 months are telling the tale.
Debt never just evaporates. One more burden on the working Middle Class (more taxes)..... Curious how those Mom's and Dad's who worked overtime or took on a part time job and paid their child's tuition so there would be no "Student Loan" at Graduation time are feeling..... ?
The U.S. factory sector has been resilient due to red-hot demand for goods. However, heightened uncertainty, supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages and consumers' shift in spending patterns toward services pose risks to the outlook.
www.morningstar.com
U.S. Factory Orders Rose Modestly in April
I guess I should just stop paying for my sons college?? But no, I am responsible and will pay even while the college fund I started 23 years ago is probably now worth shit thanks to the dems! It is just putting a dent in my other purchases.
We have a saying in the heavy industrial construction world that covers a situation like this.
"Don't worry about the mule, just load the wagon"..... And here we are
All the strippers I knew back in the day were planning on going to law school or medical school they wouldn’t lower themselves to be a nurse thats not as impressive in their world or make good conversation to say your going to nursing school.
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Fairly obvious the FED Reserve is a "House Divided". We all know that scenario.
Seems Lael thinks next September will look a lot like last April.
www.cnbc.com
Seems Lael thinks next September will look a lot like last April.
Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard says it's 'very hard to see the case' for the Fed pausing rate hikes
Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said it's unlikely the central bank will be taking a break from its current rate-hiking cycle anytime soon.
www.cnbc.com
Actually had a stripper that was in my criminology program. She danced at my friends bachelor party. Strange worldAll the strippers I knew back in the day were planning on going to law school or medical school they wouldn’t lower themselves to be a nurse thats not as impressive in their world or make good conversation to say your going to nursing school.
Have another sip of Koolaid
.......the first time Social Security officials have issued such a rosy outlook since their 1983 report.
www.cnbc.com
.......the first time Social Security officials have issued such a rosy outlook since their 1983 report.
Social Security fund will be able to pay benefits one year longer than expected, Treasury says
The Social Security trust fund will be able to pay out benefits for a year longer than prior estimates, the Treasury Department said.
www.cnbc.com
Looking like the OT is tapering off for those that work in production. Means less disposable income.
www.bls.gov
Average weekly hours of production employees
www.bls.gov
Too much online interactive porn. Think of it like what Netflix and Red Box did to Block Buster.If the strippers are calling it out you KNOW all of the discretionary income in the economy is gone.
ETA: I had to see for myself:
Strippers say a crash is guaranteed because the strip clubs are suddenly empty
Some strippers on Twitter said they think a recession and market crash is guaranteed - because the strip clubs are suddenly empty.A woman who goes by @botticellibimbo on the platform said the following about the clubs: "The strip club is sadly a leading indicator, and I can promise y'all we r in...
The money has just shifted.
Generac Generators....
JMHO... I have been around a lot of different generators. When I hit the start button I want the lights to come on and stay on until I turn it off. Even Costco is selling Generac generators. When a generator stops putting out power, very, very few people even know how to troubleshoot the issue. A generator needs to run occasionally to make sure the fuel is good, the output power is working and a host of other things. Most people buy a generator, run it one time and it sits until it is needed.
There will be a lot of disappointed people when the grid goes down and they have an issue with a Generac.... Things will get worse when they try to deal with customer service or get parts.... just a heads up.
JMHO... I have been around a lot of different generators. When I hit the start button I want the lights to come on and stay on until I turn it off. Even Costco is selling Generac generators. When a generator stops putting out power, very, very few people even know how to troubleshoot the issue. A generator needs to run occasionally to make sure the fuel is good, the output power is working and a host of other things. Most people buy a generator, run it one time and it sits until it is needed.
There will be a lot of disappointed people when the grid goes down and they have an issue with a Generac.... Things will get worse when they try to deal with customer service or get parts.... just a heads up.
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc | 10.289% |
I would like to get one of their whole house generators. Living in Louisiana and having been without power after getting slammed by Laura and then Delta sucked! The heat killed more people down here then the hurricane did. Peak wind gusts at my location during Laura was 135 mph. Lake Charles (south of me was slammed even harder).
Moisture is the enemy of the Generac Generator... I'm a native of Louisiana.. Do some research or either build a moisture controlled room for that brand generator. Look around and see what the Oil Patch people are using for stand by's. Without a doubt, a generator with moisture resistant control panels will cost more.... The option is to go with an old generator without PC boards... Best of Luck......
Having a generator with a transfer switch and that is capable of running the entire house is the key. I'm getting tired of sweating to the oldies!
I think the tech is getting close to being great on solar generators. One more tech bump on batteries and I can probably get rid of my gas generator.
I was thinking about putting solar on my carport 30'X35' facing south at about a 10 degree slope. That would add roughly 2600 lbs on the carport and cost for just the panels about $16000. Then I would need to tie that in with the power and a power shutoff so I don't energize the line should the power go out. The next thing I need to think about is how do I keep the house systems operational since solar doesn't account for the spikes in systems on startup such as the AC unit, refrigeration systems on refrigerators (batteries?) and during low light/low energy production times.
Probably the best thing is solar augmented with a generator and batteries (but battery tech still sucks). Lots to think about.
Here is a question... Especially for the Gulf Coast guy's.... Will your home owner's insurance cover solar systems when a hurricane blows through your area ?.... I'm not being a smart ass but I was a child when Hurricane Audrey blew through... Sheltering in an old house that was being demolished one board and one shingle at a time left a lasting memory.
Hurricane Audrey - Wikipedia
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