Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[Hobo Hilton]

2% inflation is FED Reserve propaganda... Any inflation is robbing the working Americans.
At this point the FED Reserve is nothing more than a paper tiger.
HOPE is not a plan.

Investors looked to a series of remarks from Federal Reserve officials as they considered what the path ahead for monetary policy could look like. Uncertainty about when, if and how often, rates will be cut this year has been persistent in recent weeks.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins on Wednesday became the latest central bank policymaker to indicate that interest rates will likely be steady until inflation is clearly moving toward the Fed’s 2% target range.
Collins’ comments echoed those made by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin earlier in the week. They were also all broadly in line with the guidance issued by the Fed after its latest meeting earlier this month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/09/us-treasurys-investors-consider-remarks-from-fed-officials.html

 

[Sgtsideways]

I honestly don't know how anyone can look forward to the fed comments and all the abc .gov outfits and the stats that they cite. All the numbers are dicked and what they can't dick they get rid of..................Like not including the energy, food, and tax costs in the cpi or no longer showing the M3 money supply. The Federal Reserve, used to track M3, but it discontinued the publication of M3 data in 2006, citing a lack of usefulness in guiding monetary policy.

If the numbers don't jive, just fake it..........All is well, just keep moving on sonny.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I honestly don't know how anyone can look forward to the fed comments and all the abc .gov outfits and the stats that they cite. All the numbers are dicked and what they can't dick they get rid of..................Like not including the energy, food, and tax costs in the cpi or no longer showing the M3 money supply. The Federal Reserve, used to track M3, but it discontinued the publication of M3 data in 2006, citing a lack of usefulness in guiding monetary policy.

If the numbers don't jive, just fake it..........All is well, just keep moving on sonny.

Welcome to my world.
The best and most accurate financial info I get is from a family in the check out line at the grocery store. I always scan the stuff in their shopping cart before our conversation starts. I look at the clothes the kids are wearing and the general health of the entire family.
I put much more stock in their comments than the numbers furnished by the US Government.
What is so interesting to me is why the rest of the financial markets of the world hang onto every word and number the Government spits out.
The Bible mentions the "False Idol's"..... Seems America has become the False Idol for the rest of the world.

 

[Bigfatcock]

More jobless is bullish.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

More jobless is bullish.

Biden is going to put them to work at Racine County, Wis.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/05/08/biden-foxconn-white-house-trump/

 

[lariat]

Popular retail chain skips bankruptcy, moves right to liquidation

MSN

"Foxtrot has not filed for bankruptcy and the company's closure was not expected. The company's over 300 employees did not get severance and there are multiple lawsuits related to Foxtrot's owners not providing legally required warnings to workers.

The company's owners tried to be gracious in their farewell message.

“We want to express our sincerest gratitude for your support and patronage throughout the years. It has been our highest honor to elevate the everyday and create a remarkable shopping experience for people who love food as much as we do,” Foxtrot shared in its farewell letter."

 

[Hobo Hilton]

‘Seriously Underwater’ Home Mortgages Tick Up Across the US​

(Bloomberg) — Roughly one in 37 homes are now considered seriously underwater in the US and that share is much higher across a swath of southern states, according to data out Thursday.
Nationally, 2.7% of homes carried loan balances at least 25% more than their market value in the first few months of the year. That’s up from 2.6% in the previous quarter, according to the first-quarter 2024 US Home Equity & Underwater Report from ATTOM, a real estate data firm.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/05/seriously-underwater-home-mortgages-tick-up-across-the-us/

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Now, Yellen and the Government are "concerned" about the private lenders that fund the mortgage industry.
They want to regulate this private industry even more than it is already regulated.
We have an over reaching Government that needs to focus on solving it's own problems before placing more regulations on private industry.

May 10 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday called for Congress to give regulators more power to oversee the growing nonbank mortgage industry, which she said presented unique risks to financial stability.
Yellen spoke during a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, a regulatory body she chairs and which was created after the 2007-2009 financial crisis. It is tasked with managing risks to the financial system.
The council, whose members head other top financial regulators, voted unanimously to approve publishing a report and related recommendations on the issue.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-treasurys-yellen-says-congress-should-act-nonbank-mortgage-sector-2024-05-10/

 

[91Eunozs]

Interesting vacation/time off this past week to work with all the contractors as they finish our casita build, and the subsequent revamp of our entire property.

Every single one of them…including the General Contractor/builder…are desperate for work, and all are independent contractors who are now are interviewing with big companies in their respective fields to try to get some kind of safety net In place.

One of them, someone we’ve worked with for literally decades, has ghosted us without finishing the job…and owes us almost $2k. That is completely out of character for him.

Also noticing almost no packed restaurants, etc. around here…that’s very, very strange.

How does line go about going “slowly, then suddenly broke”?

 

[Bigfatcock]

Lumber is $486 per 1000 bf. 0% of that low cost is passed on to people building a house today. I’ve been watching commodities for a long time, and there have been zero price reductions in the last 3 years as commodities have dropped.

I get that wages have increased, but it’s time for layoffs and bankruptcies. Deflation will be here soon enough.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Interesting vacation/time off this past week to work with all the contractors as they finish our casita build, and the subsequent revamp of our entire property.

Every single one of them…including the General Contractor/builder…are desperate for work, and all are independent contractors who are now are interviewing with big companies in their respective fields to try to get some kind of safety net In place.

One of them, someone we’ve worked with for literally decades, has ghosted us without finishing the job…and owes us almost $2k. That is completely out of character for him.

Also noticing almost no packed restaurants, etc. around here…that’s very, very strange.

How does line go about going “slowly, then suddenly broke”?

I have friends in the custom cabinet and door business in the Bitterroot Valley, MT. They have about 2 months back log of work which is normal for them. They did not shut down during the virus time period. Just worked through it. They do not do any of the work on the "high density / affordable income" projects, only custom new and re-model's.
Commercial land lords raised rent so high that many small businesses are building their own facilities.

 

[lariat]

Watch: Billionaire Real Estate Investor Expects 'One Or Two' Bank Failures A Week, UK Economist Says "Entering A New Dark Age" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Watch: Billionaire Real Estate Investor Expects 'One Or Two' Bank Failures A Week, UK Economist Says "Entering A New Dark Age" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

The US Government needs to stay out of this situation. The Government bailouts previously on bad loans only prompted the banks to continue to make loans that are "questionable". Let these properties go at Sheriff's Sales on the steps of the courthouse only individuals may bid. Keep BlackRock out of the bidding and let the average Joe have a shot at getting a home.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Homeowners are doing fewer and smaller remodels. Yet they are spending more per project, in part due to broader inflation and higher costs for materials and construction labor.

Spending more and getting less still boils down to continuing inflation. 2% inflation is unacceptable.

​

Fewer homeowners are remodeling, but demand is still ‘solid’​

Fewer homeowners have been taking on remodeling projects, reports show. But don’t mistake it for a slow market.
The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, an outlook measuring home improvement and repair spending on owner-occupied homes, peaked at 17.3% in the third quarter of 2022. The LIRA has been declining since, and slid 1.2% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the prior quarter

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/12/fewer-homeowners-are-remodeling-but-demand-is-still-solid.html

 

[IronSkillet]

Building on what you posted on remodeling, read an article recently that focused on fixed income homes, the premise being over the past few years they have drained off personal savings to maintain. So what will be their next move?
Living in small town Florida the car new car dealers have had limited inventory and a lot of open pavement. Currently all have pavement full and Nissan has over flow inventory on grass. My opinion that customer who walks through the doors and didn’t care about the price because it’s just a monthly payment are now struggling to pay bills at the end of the month. Interesting a used car dealer I’m familiar with in Gainesville has been receiving Rams from 2022 with less than 100 miles.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Building on what you posted on remodeling, read an article recently that focused on fixed income homes, the premise being over the past few years they have drained off personal savings to maintain. So what will be their next move?
Living in small town Florida the car new car dealers have had limited inventory and a lot of open pavement. Currently all have pavement full and Nissan has over flow inventory on grass. My opinion that customer who walks through the doors and didn’t care about the price because it’s just a monthly payment are now struggling to pay bills at the end of the month. Interesting a used car dealer I’m familiar with in Gainesville has been receiving Rams from 2022 with less than 100 miles.

People will have to pull themselves up by their boot straps and drink less Starbucks, lol.

Fed is walking a fine line right now. I smell inflation in the future, and no analyst or anyone else can convince me otherwise at this time. I’m expecting some time this year. Right now I’m targeting September through krimuss time period, but it could come sooner.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Building on what you posted on remodeling, read an article recently that focused on fixed income homes, the premise being over the past few years they have drained off personal savings to maintain. So what will be their next move?
Living in small town Florida the car new car dealers have had limited inventory and a lot of open pavement. Currently all have pavement full and Nissan has over flow inventory on grass. My opinion that customer who walks through the doors and didn’t care about the price because it’s just a monthly payment are now struggling to pay bills at the end of the month. Interesting a used car dealer I’m familiar with in Gainesville has been receiving Rams from 2022 with less than 100 miles.

I can name a few things the "fixed income homes" will cut back on. What they will not cut back on is the streaming TV services and the IPhone's. American's are lazy so they will "shift" their eating habits. They will spend $20 on a Door Dash delivered McD's meal rather than buy $20 of groceries and fix a healthy meal. They will keep minimum liability on their car or even just not carry insurance. When the registration on their vehicles expires they will cover the plate with a "Joe's Used Car" temp plate and drive until the cop stops them and tow's the vehicle. At that point the vehicle is not worth squat so it sits in a storage lot until it goes off to auction. Then they go put $100 down on another clunker and drive until the repo man snags it. Their kids will be getting 3 meals at school for free or just getting food off of the SNAP card.
When the roof caves in they will load their shit in a UHaul trailer and head to the city offering the most free services for the homeless.
Deja Vu... History repeating..... Same as the Houston Oil Boom going Bust.... This time it is worldwide

The Oil Boom That Went Bust

In the eighties, petroleum prices went through the roof, and Texans, flush with cash, went a little crazy—before it all came crashing down.

www.texasmonthly.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

People will have to pull themselves up by their boot straps and drink less Starbucks, lol.

Fed is walking a fine line right now. I smell inflation in the future, and no analyst or anyone else can convince me otherwise at this time. I’m expecting some time this year. Right now I’m targeting September through krimuss time period, but it could come sooner.

I agree with you "IF" the conditions do not change. The only possible change I can imagine is a large infusion of Government money directly into the working middle class. Infusing the wealthy only increases their bank account. Infusing the poor only allows them to pay off a credit card or late electric bill. The middle class would put that money to work.
It's a nice thought, anyway.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I agree with you "IF" the conditions do not change. The only possible change I can imagine is a large infusion of Government money directly into the working middle class. Infusing the wealthy only increases their bank account. Infusing the poor only allows them to pay off a credit card or late electric bill. The middle class would put that money to work.
It's a nice thought, anyway.

A government infusion of cash into the middle class is a terrible idea. If people don’t like inflation now, they’ll definitely be much unhappier if that happens.

 

[Fig]

Really? Consumer side economics has the worst tract record of any policy ever. Are you Joe Biden’s economic advisor?

 

[IronSkillet]

Honestly believe it is the working middle class the government is trying to destroy. The poors are still poor and the rich are richer. One may only imagine the demographics of the working middle class .

 

[NoDopes]

elderly with homes will take out reverse mortgages, but with current rates, it won't last long.


China financing contracts for first time in over 20 years... (since 2001 according to another source...)

Last month’s decline in aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit, was the first in almost two decades. With private borrowers and local authorities largely tapped out, the central government signaled Monday it’s ready to step in with a spending boost.

China Credit Engine Goes Into Reverse, Piles Pressure on Beijing

(Bloomberg) -- China’s shock credit contraction is adding pressure on the government to spend more money — and on the central bank to help. Most Read from BloombergTrump Vows ‘Day One’ Executive Order Targeting Offshore WindChina to Start $138 Billion Bond Sale on Friday to Boost EconomyPutin...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Bigfatcock]

elderly with homes will take out reverse mortgages, but with current rates, it won't last long.

Naw. They can work harder and pull themselves up by their bootstraps. Maybe eat out less and cut their phone plans. Possibly cut their streaming services too.

 

[Emerson0311]

A government infusion of cash into the middle class is a terrible idea. If people don’t like inflation now, they’ll definitely be much unhappier if that happens.

That was covid relief $$$$. It kicked the can down the road and made the coming correction far more intense.

 

[Emerson0311]

Naw. They can work harder and pull themselves up by their bootstraps. Maybe eat out less and cut their phone plans. Possibly cut their streaming services too.

They have no conception of the actual situation they are in. They still think in 1988 terms.

 

[Bigfatcock]

They have no conception of the actual situation they are in. They still think in 1988 terms.

That’s why I keep repeating that. That’s the common response from the remaining greatest and boomer generations when people complain they can’t buy a $250,000-$400,000 starter home on $20.00 an hour. So I give it back when the subject of the elderly hurting comes up. They should have planned better.

It’s a cold response, but it is what it is.

 

[WaltHer]

That’s why I keep repeating that. That’s the common response from the remaining greatest and boomer generations when people complain they can’t buy a $250,000-$400,000 starter home on $20.00 an hour. So I give it back when the subject of the elderly hurting comes up. They should have planned better.

It’s a cold response, but it is what it is.

No names but...

 

[babyguppy]

There's deals to be had boys

Fort Worth’s Tallest Building Sells for Less Than 9% of 2021 Purchase Price​

137.5 million in 2021.
$12.3 million 2024 (last week)

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2024/05/13/fort-worths-tallest-building-sells-less-than-9-purchase-price-2021/

Burnett Plaza’s most recent appraisal found it to be worth $104.5 million, with tenants including General Motors Financial, Kimley-Horn and Associates, and Huckabee. However, the building’s vacancy rose to 22 percent last quarter, according to Cushman & Wakefield real estate data cited by the Real Deal.

 

[BAMAboy18]

LOL, 20X365 = 7600. It's a nice thought, but it won't quite help meet the mortgage on that 400k house.
I get your point, on conserving $$. Way too many people running that 1500 dollar phone, 130 dollar phone plan, 40 or 50 a month in streaming, don't forget the 150 cable bill.. etc..

$200 is too much to spend on a phone! I cut the cord years ago on TV & Internet. My property has been paid off for years. It's a wonder I'm still alive?!

 

[NoDopes]

Government is deficit spending at 2.7%
GDP Estimate for 2024 1st Qtr is 1.6%

Gross Domestic Product | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

www.bea.gov

 

[Lightning8]

Homeowners are doing fewer and smaller remodels. Yet they are spending more per project, in part due to broader inflation and higher costs for materials and construction labor.

Spending more and getting less still boils down to continuing inflation. 2% inflation is unacceptable.

​

Fewer homeowners are remodeling, but demand is still ‘solid’​

Fewer homeowners have been taking on remodeling projects, reports show. But don’t mistake it for a slow market.
The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, an outlook measuring home improvement and repair spending on owner-occupied homes, peaked at 17.3% in the third quarter of 2022. The LIRA has been declining since, and slid 1.2% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the prior quarter

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/12/fewer-homeowners-are-remodeling-but-demand-is-still-solid.html

I have relatives in Atlanta, Ga that have been trying to get reputable contractors to remodel their master bathroom for year+; none of the contractors will even bid projects less than $100,000. Send your contracting buddies to Atlanta.

 

[Lightning8]

Naw. They can work harder and pull themselves up by their bootstraps. Maybe eat out less and cut their phone plans. Possibly cut their streaming services too.

Us old folks got multiple pensions, IRAs, 401Ks, and we bought our houses cheap and they appreciated super well plus we are pulling in that Social Security you youngsters are paying for - we will have the last laugh.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Us old folks got multiple pensions, IRAs, 401Ks, and we bought our houses cheap and they appreciated super well plus we are pulling in that Social Security you youngsters are paying for - we will have the last laugh.

Similar thoughts ran through my head today. Remember when we were young the Government wages were less than the private industry. That has reversed with the "total package" government workers knock down.
But, when things really tighten up, that 3% house note, Social Security, Medicare and a small pension will tide us over.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Us old folks got multiple pensions, IRAs, 401Ks, and we bought our houses cheap and they appreciated super well plus we are pulling in that Social Security you youngsters are paying for - we will have the last laugh.

Young folks will sell feet pictures and become millionaires.

 

[Emerson0311]

Young folks will sell feet pictures and become millionaires.

The whole dying with more $$ is not much of a victory. In my experience, old financially comfortable people are loath to part with any resources that could make a difference in their grandchildren’s lives.

 

[Lightning8]

The whole dying with more $$ is not much of a victory. In my experience, old financially comfortable people are loath to part with any resources that could make a difference in their grandchildren’s lives.

Really. You hang with the wrong old people. Transitioning Traditional IRAs to ROTH IRAs every year (working the tax math) to improve estate for kids/grandkid.

Issue when you are old is you never know when a medical catastrophe or dementia will force long term care and eat up the nest egg (seen it with my parents).

 

[Emerson0311]

Really. You hang with the wrong old people. Transitioning Traditional IRAs to ROTH IRAs every year (working the tax math) to improve estate for kids/grandkid.

Issue when you are old is you never know when a medical catastrophe or dementia will force long term care and eat up the nest egg (seen it with my parents).

I tell my parents that any of their 5 children could absorb mom and dad into the household with undue hardship. A few hundred a month would cover the extra cost. Or a bit of OT. Of course, they would have to relinquish a bit of iron control of everything. Not in the cards I guess.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“Any country can borrow money and drive some growth, but that may not always lead to good growth. So, I think America should be quite aware that we have got to focus on our fiscal deficit issues a little bit more, and that is important for the world,” he added.

Jamie Dimon urges the U.S. to deal with its deficit sooner rather than later​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/15/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-urges-us-to-deal-with-its-fiscal-deficit.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

In remarks made Tuesday in Amsterdam, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed hope that inflation would decelerate through the year but acknowledged the slow progress and provided further direction that rates aren’t likely to move anytime soon.

The crew of the Andrea Gail had hope they would make it back to Gloucester alive.

HOPE IS NOT A PLAN.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/heres-everything-to-expect-from-wednesdays-key-report-on-inflation.html

 

[Emerson0311]

In remarks made Tuesday in Amsterdam, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed hope that inflation would decelerate through the year but acknowledged the slow progress and provided further direction that rates aren’t likely to move anytime soon.

View attachment 8418560

The crew of the Andrea Gail had hope they would make it back to Gloucester alive.

HOPE IS NOT A PLAN.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/heres-everything-to-expect-from-wednesdays-key-report-on-inflation.html

They know what the plan is. The press releases are comfort food to keep the willfully ignorant quiet and docile as long as possible.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

They know what the plan is. The press releases are comfort food to keep the willfully ignorant quiet and docile as long as possible.

The "Bread and Circus" streaming video plays on.
No one is coming.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I tell my parents that any of their 5 children could absorb mom and dad into the household with undue hardship. A few hundred a month would cover the extra cost. Or a bit of OT. Of course, they would have to relinquish a bit of iron control of everything. Not in the cards I guess.

Poorer Americans beg Fed to cut interest rates amid soaring prices: 'We're trapped'

Lower-earning Americans are practically begging the government to cut interest rates as they struggle to get out of financial hardship, according to a new report.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Bigfatcock]

Poorer Americans beg Fed to cut interest rates amid soaring prices: 'We're trapped'

Lower-earning Americans are practically begging the government to cut interest rates as they struggle to get out of financial hardship, according to a new report.

www.foxbusiness.com

Stay the course. This is literally how you fix inflation.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Stay the course. This is literally how you fix inflation.

You pulled a page from Jerome Powell's play book.
"We need more inflation to lick inflation"... JP

 

[Bigfatcock]

You pulled a page from Jerome Powell's play book.
"We need more inflation to lick inflation"... JP

It’ll work…eventually. I mean, it’s going to cause a deflationary period, but I’m cool with that.

 

[lariat]

It’ll work…eventually. I mean, it’s going to cause a deflationary period, but I’m cool with that.

I think we are going to have the deflationary period at this point regardless.

 

[lariat]

The spin in this article...

MSN

Consumer prices rose 3.4% in April compared to a year ago, slowing slightly from the previous month and offering a welcome sign for the Federal Reserve in its yearslong inflation fight. The fresh data matched economists' expectations. After falling dramatically over the course of last year, inflation had accelerated in recent months. Recalcitrant prices forced the Fed to postpone highly anticipated interest rate cuts, leaving borrowing rates high for everything from credit cards to mortgages. The latest finding indicated a mild cooldown from the 3.5% annual inflation rate recorded in March."

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It’ll work…eventually. I mean, it’s going to cause a deflationary period, but I’m cool with that.

The folks that do not have a lot to loose will ride this out easily. Meaning those with some savings, vehicles paid off, close to debt free, recession proof employment, low interest mortgage and a good credit score. This is not the time to try and "Keep up with the Jones".

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The spin in this article...

MSN

Consumer prices rose 3.4% in April compared to a year ago, slowing slightly from the previous month and offering a welcome sign for the Federal Reserve in its yearslong inflation fight. The fresh data matched economists' expectations. After falling dramatically over the course of last year, inflation had accelerated in recent months. Recalcitrant prices forced the Fed to postpone highly anticipated interest rate cuts, leaving borrowing rates high for everything from credit cards to mortgages. The latest finding indicated a mild cooldown from the 3.5% annual inflation rate recorded in March."

The "Spin Doctor's" with the help of AI are busy at work. Not one is quoting "Pre Pandemic" financial information. Today's market is built on inflation numbers and HOPE.

 

[Lightning8]

Stay the course. This is literally how you fix inflation.

You stop inflation by dramatically reducing Federal government spending. The Federal government cannot quit spending meanwhile beating the citizens to death with inflation AND high interest rates.