The "Official Shortage Thread"......

[BullGear]

Might think of stocking up on some bread flour and yeast, if you like bread.

Bought a bunch just before the Covid Lockdown.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages about 90% of the state’s electricity load, said that residents and businesses should turn up thermostats by at least one degree Fahrenheit and not use any major appliances between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. Central time on Monday.

Texas grid operator tells residents to curb power as heat hits record highs

The Texas regulator projected a shortage in energy reserves on Monday "with no market solution available," but said it does not expect systemwide outages.

www.cnbc.com

 

[jrhtx]

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages about 90% of the state’s electricity load, said that residents and businesses should turn up thermostats by at least one degree Fahrenheit and not use any major appliances between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. Central time on Monday.

Texas grid operator tells residents to curb power as heat hits record highs

The Texas regulator projected a shortage in energy reserves on Monday "with no market solution available," but said it does not expect systemwide outages.

www.cnbc.com

Thank you Rick Perry!

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas deliveries to at least one major customer in Europe, which would protect the Russian giant from compensation payments for unrealized deliveries, Reuters reported exclusively on Monday, quoting a Gazprom letter it had seen.

Gazprom Declares Force Majeure On Some Gas Deliveries To Europe | OilPrice.com

Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas deliveries to at least one major customer in Europe, which would protect the Russian giant from compensation payments for unrealized deliveries

oilprice.com

 

[Sirshredalot]

Work boots.

Try buying a pair of usa made works boots.... been on back order for months.

Leather come from beef, usually sourced from australia...hmmm.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Have some repair projects going here on the homestead. Went to the supply houses in search of parts / supplies.
The standard reply at most places:
"Well, I don't have that many. I'll give you what I got".... The new norm.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Random thoughts about the "Computer Chip Shortage":

Ever consider how many chips are used in "spying" ? What government does the most spying ?
I questioned why the US Government was giving Billions to the chip manufacturers. . . 2+2= government must have chips to spy on American's.
Not only is the government giving them free money but when a chip is produced it will be sold to the US Government at an inflated price. Just one big "Merry-Go-Round"...
Sounds like what the largest drug manufacturer's have done.
No tin hat here.

Global Chip Shortage Likely to Last Through 2023: US Official

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo repeated her call for Congress to act to provide funding for legislation that aims to stimulate domestic manufacturing of the computer chips...

www.industryweek.com

The Senate just agreed $52 billion to boost US chip making. It's going to take a lot more

The US wants to fix the semiconductor supply chain, and it will require a big budget. But $52 billion might not be enough to tackle every challenge.

www.zdnet.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Before Russian energy giant Gazprom decided to cut Nord Stream 1 gas flows to 20%, Europe had already shuttered roughly half of its aluminum smelting capacity. According to Alcoa CEO Roy Harvey, high energy prices mixed with low aluminum spot prices in June made between 10% and 20% of global aluminum smelting operations unprofitable.

Aluminum Prices Move Sideways As Energy Crisis Persists | OilPrice.com

Aluminum prices are sliding sideways after falling by nearly 40% since their March peak, with the ongoing energy crisis making production unprofitable

oilprice.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“We have experienced persistent rail transportation challenges that have impacted our operations. These challenges have forced us to align our shift configuration with those in place at other interior BC operations to manage unsustainable inventory levels. The decision to reduce our operating schedule was difficult, and we regret the impact this may have on our employees, their families, and the community,” said Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO.

Conifex Provides Operational Updates

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Aug. 22, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Conifex Timber Inc. (“Conifex”) (TSX: CFF) announced today that it is reducing its...

www.globenewswire.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Well .... Where has all of the water gone, worldwide ?

Water is in short supply. Markets should pay attention | CNN Business

The world is in desperate need of water. Drought and increasing temperatures have threatened to impact nearly every major sector of the economy, from energy to agriculture to shipping.

www.cnn.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Ford said late Monday it will end September with between 40,000 and 45,000 large pickups and SUVs that it can’t finish because it doesn’t have all the parts.

As many as 45,000 Fords can't be sold because they're missing parts

The still-clogged global supply chain continues to wreak havoc on the auto industry.

www.cnn.com

 

[Bradu]

Ford said late Monday it will end September with between 40,000 and 45,000 large pickups and SUVs that it can’t finish because it doesn’t have all the parts.

As many as 45,000 Fords can't be sold because they're missing parts

The still-clogged global supply chain continues to wreak havoc on the auto industry.

www.cnn.com

That doesn't surprise me at all. A lot of parts have been built to order, ordered a cpc for a freightliner and was told the dealer has been waiting almost a year for that module. We sent it out to see if it can be repaired over a month ago and still no ETA.

 

[lariat]

That doesn't surprise me at all. A lot of parts have been built to order, ordered a cpc for a freightliner and was told the dealer has been waiting almost a year for that module. We sent it out to see if it can be repaired over a month ago and still no ETA.

I fear that this is going to be the norm. Going to junkyards where possible, maybe aftermarket services that can get the circuit boards up and running again, bypassed, etc.

 

[Lightning8]

Car rear ended at redlight. No injuries. No problems with insurance coverage, etc. but expect this will take 4 - 6 months to repair as no parts available. Need multiple rear bumper parts, etc. - not going to be totaled or anything but just cannot get parts and no ETA on parts. 2019 Subaru Outback.

 

[Bradu]

I fear that this is going to be the norm. Going to junkyards where possible, maybe aftermarket services that can get the circuit boards up and running again, bypassed, etc.

I'm almost certain it is with the labor shortages. The guy that repairs the modules is $2500, it's pretty high, but they know you don't really have another option.

 

[Bradu]

Car rear ended at redlight. No injuries. No problems with insurance coverage, etc. but expect this will take 4 - 6 months to repair as no parts available. Need multiple rear bumper parts, etc. - not going to be totaled or anything but just cannot get parts and no ETA on parts. 2019 Subaru Outback.

Buddy said they order parts for all the quotes given at the body shop he works for even though they know they won't get all the jobs. It's their way of trying to eliminate the downtime for customers.

 

[BullGear]

Car rear ended at redlight. No injuries. No problems with insurance coverage, etc. but expect this will take 4 - 6 months to repair as no parts available. Need multiple rear bumper parts, etc. - not going to be totaled or anything but just cannot get parts and no ETA on parts. 2019 Subaru Outback.

I know it's not ideal, but you may want to walk around a few junk yards.

 

[Alpine 338]

No Mobile 1 in 0W-20 to be had in town, had to buy Valvoline at $5 more per jug. I was lucky to even find that as it was hidden on the top shelf out of reach at Walmart, and they only had two jugs. I've been seeing lots of empty shelves in the automotive lubricant and coolant isles at not only at Walmart, but at all the auto parts stores.

 

[Bradu]

No Mobile 1 in 0W-20 to be had in town, had to buy Valvoline at $5 more per jug. I was lucky to even find that as it was hidden on the top shelf out of reach at Walmart, and they only had two jugs. I've been seeing lots of empty shelves in the automotive lubricant and coolant isles at not only at Walmart, but at all the auto parts stores.

Mobile has been in short supply for over a year now from our dealer. We order 400 gallons of 15/40 at a time and get allocated about a third of what we order. We actually got 200 gallons the last time so it's a little better. The other brand we use has been easy to get all along. Shell Rotella has been hard to get as well due to additive shortages.

 

[sirhrmechanic]

The auto manufacturing crisis is so bad that tens of thousands of unfinished Ford trucks are literally visible from space

My suggestion: Plan to buy a Ford truck in Q1 2023, because they're probably going to be dirt cheap by then.

notthebee.com

Sirhr

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The auto manufacturing crisis is so bad that tens of thousands of unfinished Ford trucks are literally visible from space

My suggestion: Plan to buy a Ford truck in Q1 2023, because they're probably going to be dirt cheap by then.

notthebee.com

Sirhr

But again, they may have to scavenge parts off of these units in order to complete the next model year units.

 

[BullGear]

I went to a gas station/convenient store today to cash out a few winning lottery tickets and I walked by an almost empty rack. Seems like they must be having a difficult time stocking health food snacks. This is the second time in 2 weeks that I've noticed this. I guess the manufacturer is relabeling that stuff as horse food.....

 

[Bradu]

Ran across a new shortage today on something I would have never guessed. Apparently, serpentine belts for a paccar mx13 are on national backorder and have been since May according to one dealer. We have already been waiting 3 months for ccv modules and still have no eta.

 

[NoDopes]

We've been waiting two years for a new backup camera on safety recall on the wife's Honda.
I've been waiting over a year and a half for my Vortex fury AB order from planetoptics.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Heating oil company warns 'perfect storm' coming this winter unless supplies are replenished

Apple Oil president Sam Livieri said the cost of heating oil, which he estimated is 40% higher than 2021, is "detrimental" to the elderly and those on fixed incomes.

www.foxnews.com

 

[BullGear]

I have a rental that was changed over to a heat pump recently. Can you imagine the issues with tenant's complaints that may go through the roof. Landlords are responsible for providing a working furnace in my neck of the woods. I bet those HVAC companies will be busy once it get cold.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Lots of chatter / propaganda out there about the possibility of a diesel shortage. We have had toilet paper shortages, baby food shortages and hundreds of other consumer related shortages. Looking back, a lot of inconvenience.
A diesel shortage would be a bit different (apples to oranges). Diesel may get expensive, rationed to the public or even designated for the transportation of essential commodities industries.
I don't see America running out of diesel. Lot's of intervention would take place first. Examples would be to stop the export of diesel / heating oil. Next would be the relaxing of EPA regulations on the refineries. Could be a restriction on LTL trucking (Less Than Truck Load) or a few other things.
I could be wrong.. No one knows what the future will bring. As a precaution, I have diesel here on the homestead.
JMHO

Four Reasons Why The U.S. Is Grappling With A Diesel Shortage | OilPrice.com

U.S. distillate levels have fallen to their lowest levels since 2008, and the market won’t likely return to normal before next summer at the earliest

oilprice.com

 

[Alpine 338]

We won't run out of diesel without also running out of gasoline and other refined products from crude oil.

My understanding, depending on the grade of oil, most of it gets refined into gasoline, whereas diesel, fuel oil, and jet fuel are a smaller fraction of that refining process, then there are even smaller outputs like tars, that are used for things like asphalt, etc. Nothing is wasted from that barrel of oil.

I can foresee a shortage, especially if we start exporting more diesel to those Countries that are in even worse shape than us.

Remember the shortage of fuel (gasoline) in the UK a few months back? There wasn't really a shortage, it was a distribution problem getting product to the end user.

 

[Snuby642]

We should let the rest of the world rot.

 

[BullGear]

We should let the rest of the world rot.

There has to be a time that we start thinking about what's best for the US and not the rest of the world. I'm not talking about becoming a Separatist nation, but at the very least do what right for the US first and then help if we can.

Can you imagine the money spent in Ukraine being used in the USA? And that's just a small sampling of wasted money around the world.

 

[Snuby642]

Ya the democrats cried like babies about spending money on a border wall.

I figure it's just because not enough graft was allocated to the liberal sluts.

All of a sudden money pours freely for dubious reasons to a place with a natzi regime that half the country hates so bad they would rather be a communist.

That has not sank into a lot of heads yet, sad.

 

[Alpine 338]

Just ordered a new set of tires from an online retailer. Local tire place said their regular distribution channels are not providing what they need. In my search for the brand/model/size I wanted, there was only three vendors that had stock, and it was all low. I bought five of six tires that were in stock from the best priced vendor that also offered a military discount.

I would suggest that if you need new tires, buy them now while you can get what you need or want.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

This....

 

[Snuby642]

It must be bad.

I saw some tanks in the Ukraine that looked like they were running them with flats.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Money is only valuable If people say it is. Things are more valuable than money in a world of shortages. Having those things on hand is better than money in the bank, and you set the value.

I started buying at the beginning of the year at any cost. I am glad I did, because the cost of those items might be down, but so is the availability.

Anywho, it’s almost time to launch the beans for ass program.

 

[Alpine 338]

Healthcare Workers

Even before COVID, I remember my Family Doctor telling me with all the Government and Medical Insurance requirements, he spends more time doing paperwork than actually seeing/treating patients. Said it was getting real old, and was making him think about packing it up, and he was a pretty young Doctor to.

During COVID, they said many Doctors actually retired because of all that nonsense.

A little over two months ago, I started getting some sensitivity from cold in one of my teeth. Couldn't get in to see a Dentist for almost two weeks, and that was only because they had an appointment cancellation.

Ended up having a couple teeth that were cracking, and was told I needed crowns. Had to schedule that, and again because of a cancellation I was able to get in and have crowns put on a couple weeks later. Each time I couldn't help notice how busy that Dental Office was, especially for being outside metropolis.

Last weekend, I started getting pain in one of those two teeth that was crowned. Again, schedule later, but a cancellation got me in Monday. Confirmed dead nerve in one root, and infection in both roots. Probably need to have a Root Canal.

Here's the kicker, there's only one Endodontist in town, and he's on vacation through next week Monday. I'm scheduled for an Tuesday 0800 appointment, and until then all I can say is I've been pretty miserable. Other than breathing through my mouth, or speaking, everything else I do hurts. Drinking, swallowing, chewing, sneezing, coughing, etc. Even eating oatmeal becomes a very long labor and pain intensive ordeal. After days of taking antibiotics, today I actually am starting to improve, where my jaw and tongue aren't swollen and constantly hurting.

As I told family, I'd rather go through COVID again than deal with this.

As @Hobo Hilton suggested many times before, make sure your health is squared away, including Dental.

I can't imagine going through this situation during an event where simple medical treatment, or medication wasn't available. I guess people did deal with it 300+ years ago, and survived, but I don't think it was pleasant.

Also, there's better ways to diet, than not being able to chew or swallow your food easily.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Picked up a 26 year old Ford F-250 to become my Ranch Truck.. Got it at a price where I knew I would be putting some $$$ into it to get be dependable. Slave cylinder on clutch was leaking, shifting to second gear would scratch most of the time. It was sort of a barn find so it is a tight old unit. No rust and had had some trinkets ( after market items) added. Put a new set of tires on it.... Basically "Maintenance / Maintaining"... I have worked on trucks and equipment for 57 years and I have a heated shop in Montana..

Over the past 2 weeks I have seen and dealt with some disturbing situations, talked to many grey beards behind the parts / service counters who are all saying the same thing... Ford dealer has no place to park on a giant lot because there are so many warranty cars there waiting on a $20 part. many have been there for weeks...

As stated here on another discussion I am trying to procure OEM parts... That is challenging. After market parts are lasting for 50% to 70% the lifetime of an OEM part... Go figure.

Quality or specialty tools are also getting difficult to find.
Rebuild kits for most anything are extinct...
To you guys that have minimum tools... Think about getting enough to round out what you have.
If you are picking up a used car to get you buy, at least buy your replacement parts now even if you can run what you have for a few more months... Tires, brake shoes, fan belts, radiator hoses, light bulbs.... anything considered a consumable.

If you are going to make a repair... Do it right the first time. You may not have a second opportunity during 2023.

Call it having "money in the bank"...

JMHO

 

[Alpine 338]

I committed to a similar build yesterday. It was someone else's project, but they found their dream rig, and to get that, I had to step in and buy this one.

27-year old vehicle that is getting just about everything replaced with mostly OEM parts, with a few upgrades like braided brake lines, LED lights, custom leather heated seats, etc.

New factory short block, new head, new wiring harness, new injectors, new A/C system, new axles, new rotors, new caliper's, new pads, new radiator, etc. etc. etc.

There are some parts that never wear out, like intake manifold and other parts which get vapor honed, and repainted.

I'll let the gear heads here figure out what it is from the pictures.

 

[Alpine 338]

Don't forget the other consumables, like oil, grease, filters, etc. needed for routine maintenance.

I've seen a year long shortage of 0W-20 full synthetic motor oil, no matter the brand. Dealerships are having to sub 5W-20 or 30 just to get your oil changed.

I buy extra just to be sure I have it when I need it.

 

[Bradu]

I've talked about the parts shortages quite a bit. Still horrible depending on the brand you are working on. People still can't get a fan belt for an mx13 which is a common otr truck engine.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Interesting that this topic was started Jul 10, 2021.

2 or 3 years ago the question was "Is it worth the money" ?
The world changed and today's question is "Is it worth the wait" ?
Tomorrow's question will be "How come they don't make it any more" ?
Best jump on the list while there is still a list.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Interesting that this topic was started Jul 10, 2021.

2 or 3 years ago the question was "Is it worth the money" ?
The world changed and today's question is "Is it worth the wait" ?
Tomorrow's question will be "How come they don't make it any more" ?
Best jump on the list while there is still a list.

That’s why I started buying really heavy at the beginning of the year. Cost was not the deciding factor.

 

[pmclaine]

That’s why I started buying really heavy at the beginning of the year. Cost was not the deciding factor.

Who many hookers does one man need?

Whoreding

 

[Bigfatcock]

Who many hookers does one man need?

Whoreding

All of them. Except for the gays and trannies.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

That’s why I started buying really heavy at the beginning of the year. Cost was not the deciding factor.

I remember that well. You were wise. I was driving a 2004 Ford F-350. Reading some horror stories about some of the 2021-2022 Ford trucks. Since I could not even afford to kick the tires, I bought a "Barn Find" 1997 F-250, gas engine, 4 X 4, X Cab. Drove it long enough to diagnose what needed to be done to make it "Dependable" (Not a show horse just a work horse). Got it up in my heated shop and have been going through it. At least I can work on it. Some say I am "Backing Up" but everyone is entitled to an opinion. Buying as many OEM parts as I can find. Stocking up on spare's also. Avoiding Chinese parts.

Dealer service dept says can't connect to PCM - Ford Truck Enthusiasts Forums

2015 - 2020 F150 - Dealer service dept says can't connect to PCM - Really need some feedback/guidance here, as the dealer has had my truck for 5 weeks now. Here's my saga, let me know what i can do or any guesses on what the issue is. 2019 F150 Lariat FX4 3.5L Ecoboost, 90K miles, has...

www.ford-trucks.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

All of them. Except for the gays and trannies.

I know you have a warehouse full of canned beans to barter with.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I remember that well. You were wise. I was driving a 2004 Ford F-350. Reading some horror stories about some of the 2021-2022 Ford trucks. Since I could not even afford to kick the tires, I bought a "Barn Find" 1997 F-250, gas engine, 4 X 4, X Cab. Drove it long enough to diagnose what needed to be done to make it "Dependable" (Not a show horse just a work horse). Got it up in my heated shop and have been going through it. At least I can work on it. Some say I am "Backing Up" but everyone is entitled to an opinion. Buying as many OEM parts as I can find. Stocking up on spare's also. Avoiding Chinese parts.
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Dealer service dept says can't connect to PCM - Ford Truck Enthusiasts Forums

2015 - 2020 F150 - Dealer service dept says can't connect to PCM - Really need some feedback/guidance here, as the dealer has had my truck for 5 weeks now. Here's my saga, let me know what i can do or any guesses on what the issue is. 2019 F150 Lariat FX4 3.5L Ecoboost, 90K miles, has...

www.ford-trucks.com

Smart move. A lot of my purchases were parts, lubricants, fasteners, files, maintenance, and repair supplies.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Thoughts of "Atlas Shrugged" again
Francisco d'Anconia is one of the central characters in Atlas Shrugged, an owner by inheritance of the world's largest copper mining operation.

There isn't enough copper in the world — and the shortage could last till 2030

A copper deficit is set to inundate global markets throughout 2023, fueled by increasingly challenged South American supply streams and higher demand pressures.

www.cnbc.com

 

[lariat]

Thoughts of "Atlas Shrugged" again
Francisco d'Anconia is one of the central characters in Atlas Shrugged, an owner by inheritance of the world's largest copper mining operation.

There isn't enough copper in the world — and the shortage could last till 2030

A copper deficit is set to inundate global markets throughout 2023, fueled by increasingly challenged South American supply streams and higher demand pressures.

www.cnbc.com

This is a very not good thing. The EV world is going to get more expensive as is everything else that requires virgin copper (windmills, etc).

 

[Hobo Hilton]

This is a very not good thing. The EV world is going to get more expensive as is everything else that requires virgin copper (windmills, etc).

And when they go to running low voltage / high amps the diameter of that copper wire gets a lot larger...
Those big transmission lines are running 765 kV and aluminum wire. Step down voltage and run copper to machinery.
Just one more commodity where the prices will not be coming down.