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The OFFICIAL 'Wuhan' Coronavirus outbreak information and tracking thread. NARRATIVE CHANGE. "Endemic, just like the cold". Cuomo regrets lockdown.
- Thread starter Blue Sky Country
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Define "prior illness".
Most of you fuckers have at least one - obesity, asthma, high cholesterol, hypertension, arrhythmia, prediabetes, allergies, COPD, history of smoking, congestive heart failure, etc. I bet that many here have multiple "comorbidities", because that's true of most middle-age Americans. So I don't really get why we're trying to dismiss the seriousness of this disease based upon that angle.
Most of you fuckers have at least one - obesity, asthma, high cholesterol, hypertension, arrhythmia, prediabetes, allergies, COPD, history of smoking, congestive heart failure, etc. I bet that many here have multiple "comorbidities", because that's true of most middle-age Americans. So I don't really get why we're trying to dismiss the seriousness of this disease based upon that angle.
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...www.dailywire.com
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...
Whoopsie!, My bad!
Guessing he works on climate science too.
From Grassfire:
This morning, in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and lead medical spokesperson for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said COVID-19 IS REALLY GOING TO END UP BEING LIKE A BAD FLU SEASON.
Now, I know you didn't hear this on the news (even FOX), or see it on Drudge.
All I see there is gloom, despair and agony... Mounting death tolls... Crisis and panic.
Then I saw this...
+ + BREAKING NEWS: Dr. Fauci: COVID-19 "akin" to "severe seasonal influenza"
TODAY, in the NEJM (perhaps the leading medical journal in the nation), Dr. Fauci stated very clearly that the mortality rate for COVID-19 is going to be much lower than we've feared. First, he writes that the "case mortality rate" (# deaths / # confirmed cases) in Wuhan, China is 1.4%. Then he adds:
"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968)" (emphasis added).
Let me translate...
Dr. Fauci is saying that the "clinical consequences" of COVID-19 are really like a bad flu season.
The FEAR MEDIA and the government pushed us to societal lockdown based on the heavily promoted fear of a 3% mortality rate for COVID-19. But that was the very early morality ratio (what Fauci called the "case mortality rate"). Yet the experts know that there are LOTS OF PEOPLE who have (or had) COVID-19 but will never be sick enough to even be tested. So that's why Fauci says:
"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases."
So what is "several times"? We don't know for sure, but here are some data and some guesses of late:
- A study found that 86% in Wuhan during the first weeks of the outbreak were infected but never tested (6 out of 7 people).
- Italian authorities said this week that as high as 9 out of 10 have COVID-19 but have not been tested.
- A new model out of England theorizes that half of the U.K. could already have been infected.
Do you remember two weeks ago, when an Ohio health official guesstimated that 100,000 Ohioans already had COVID-19? It's quite possible that she was correct. This morning's count in Ohio? 704 cases and 11 deaths. Why is the number so low if 100k had the disease? Because we know that the vast majority of people who have COVID-19 don't know it and will likely never be tested because their symptoms aren't bad enough! Let's say the 100,000 estimate was ten times too high and the actual number of people infected in Ohio two weeks ago was 10,000. Then your current mortality RATE (11 / 10,000) is... .1% -- a bad flu season.
Then what's the story behind outbreaks in New York and other hot spots? Yes, urban centers are going to get hit hard, but the hospitalization rate for COVID-19 is almost the same as that for influenza. Those areas may need strong quarantine, but not the entire nation! My state of Virginia is in lockdown over 391 cases and 9 deaths. For comparison, since March 1, about 5,000 people have died in Virginia of other causes. And yet we've shut down almost the entire state!
Let me be clear... I'm not saying COVID-19 isn't a threat. Even if the government didn't mandate the shutdown/lockdown we are now experiencing, you SHOULD take precautions and you SHOULD especially protect the elderly and, more specifically, the elderly with health complications.
But if Dr. Fauci is writing TODAY that the "overall clinical consequences" are probably more like a really bad flu season, why are we suspending basic civil liberties (like travel and going to the movies and going to church), and closing businesses, and causing MILLIONS to lose their jobs, which is forcing us to pile on TRILLIONS more in government debt?!?!
It's all disinformation/propaganda/bullshit until it's something that you agree with or supports your interests.
Here's a modest proposal: any of these "pundits" publicizes a prediction using their credentials to promote their interests and their career... if they turn out wrong, their credentials get stripped and they spend a year in prison. That would put a damper on ass hats like this Neil Fergusen from running their mouth, inciting fear, and profiting from panic. Also, if they're right? They get $50 and a blowjob from a midget.
Here's a modest proposal: any of these "pundits" publicizes a prediction using their credentials to promote their interests and their career... if they turn out wrong, their credentials get stripped and they spend a year in prison. That would put a damper on ass hats like this Neil Fergusen from running their mouth, inciting fear, and profiting from panic. Also, if they're right? They get $50 and a blowjob from a midget.
Didn’t see a link above for the Fauci piece in NEJM.
CALIFORNIA MARCH 25, 2020
A popular social media "influencer", (aka "trendsetter") is diagnosed with COVID-19 after falling ill following a bizarre TikTok movement known as "the coronavirus challenge", where participants lick public toilet bowls and post the footage of them doing so on social media. Some variations of the movement takes on much more sinister and destructive forms where participants film themselves coughing on supermarket produce, or licking display shelves and display cooler door handles. The "influencer" in this case had shared photos of himself licking toilets in fast food places before coming down with the illness a few days later.
Welp...
nypost.com
A popular social media "influencer", (aka "trendsetter") is diagnosed with COVID-19 after falling ill following a bizarre TikTok movement known as "the coronavirus challenge", where participants lick public toilet bowls and post the footage of them doing so on social media. Some variations of the movement takes on much more sinister and destructive forms where participants film themselves coughing on supermarket produce, or licking display shelves and display cooler door handles. The "influencer" in this case had shared photos of himself licking toilets in fast food places before coming down with the illness a few days later.
Welp...
Influencer reportedly hospitalized with coronavirus after licking toilet
A California social media prankster claims he was hospitalized with the coronavirus — just days after posting a video of himself licking a toilet bowl for a nauseating online challenge. The TikTok …
nypost.com
What the fuck is wrong with this generation that does shit like that?
BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: The Coronavirus Fatality Rate Reported by the Media Is COMPLETELY INACCURATE. The Actual Rate Is TYPICAL OF THE FLU - MEDIA LYING AGAIN! | The Gateway Pundit | by Joe Hoft
The current estimate for the fatality rates on the coronavirus just don’t add up. The estimates based on current data are completely inaccurate.www.thegatewaypundit.com
Great read
CALIFORNIA MARCH 25, 2020
A popular social media "influencer", (aka "trendsetter") is diagnosed with COVID-19 after falling ill following a bizarre TikTok movement known as "the coronavirus challenge", where participants lick public toilet bowls and post the footage of them doing so on social media. Some variations of the movement takes on much more sinister and destructive forms where participants film themselves coughing on supermarket produce, or licking display shelves and display cooler door handles. The "influencer" in this case had shared photos of himself licking toilets in fast food places before coming down with the illness a few days later.
Welp...
Influencer reportedly hospitalized with coronavirus after licking toilet
A California social media prankster claims he was hospitalized with the coronavirus — just days after posting a video of himself licking a toilet bowl for a nauseating online challenge. The TikTok …
Ok, I think we can all agree that if this kid happens to die from a COVID infection, then the cause of death should certainly be listed as "terminal stupidity".
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...
This is a hell of a claim:
"Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19."
Ok, deploy several thousand test kits around the country and start randomly testing people. Should be pretty obvious whether or not "half of the people of the UK" have been exposed to the disease.
That was published originally February 28 and has not aged well. I would suspect the optimism was mainly driven by the incompetent political hack Redfield, but who knows. There is no credible evidence for a 0.1% CFR, sorry. Everywhere in the world it has converged on 1% with the sole exception being Germany. Yes there are estimates that 20-50% may be asymptomatic, most are at the lower end but that doesn’t change anything about the exponential growth or the predictions of what would happen with no mitigation.
And by the way, there was no revision of the Imperial College model. The original was a prediction of long term outcomes with and without various measures. The new estimates are in the short term and do take into account the control measures that have been undertaken.
edit: to clarify above, the CFR has been 1% everywhere in the world where the healthcare system wasn’t overrun. In places where it was, like Wuhan or Italy, it’s been 5-10%.
CALIFORNIA MARCH 25, 2020
A popular social media "influencer", (aka "trendsetter") is diagnosed with COVID-19 after falling ill following a bizarre TikTok movement known as "the coronavirus challenge", where participants lick public toilet bowls and post the footage of them doing so on social media. Some variations of the movement takes on much more sinister and destructive forms where participants film themselves coughing on supermarket produce, or licking display shelves and display cooler door handles. The "influencer" in this case had shared photos of himself licking toilets in fast food places before coming down with the illness a few days later.
Welp...
Influencer reportedly hospitalized with coronavirus after licking toilet
A California social media prankster claims he was hospitalized with the coronavirus — just days after posting a video of himself licking a toilet bowl for a nauseating online challenge. The TikTok …
Larz meet Ava Louise. Ava meet Larz. You two were made for each other.
Well seeing how he is GAY would this qualify as practice for a rimjob?CALIFORNIA MARCH 25, 2020
A popular social media "influencer", (aka "trendsetter") is diagnosed with COVID-19 after falling ill following a bizarre TikTok movement known as "the coronavirus challenge", where participants lick public toilet bowls and post the footage of them doing so on social media. Some variations of the movement takes on much more sinister and destructive forms where participants film themselves coughing on supermarket produce, or licking display shelves and display cooler door handles. The "influencer" in this case had shared photos of himself licking toilets in fast food places before coming down with the illness a few days later.
Welp...
Influencer reportedly hospitalized with coronavirus after licking toilet
A California social media prankster claims he was hospitalized with the coronavirus — just days after posting a video of himself licking a toilet bowl for a nauseating online challenge. The TikTok …
There was a NYT article about that I saw a little while ago. But since I refuse to pay them money and have noted that even when they claim that certain news articles will be exempt from the paywall to allow us common people to get news during hurricanes etc, they insist you pay for that special coverage too, I wasn't able to read the whole thing. I got about as far as the author basically condemning the US for being a democracy/republic and not a totalitarian dictatorship that can force people to remain in their homes under pain of death, or wall them in, like certain other countries on this planet.
It also described the USA as being the "epicenter" of the COVID-19 pandemic, which I'm pretty sure is not how that word works. Wuhan is the epicenter and always will be since the virus came from there in the first place, regardless of how many cases we have more than China. I think that'd be like saying Argentina was the epicenter of the Holocaust because so many Nazis fled there after WWII.
Only men and women getting sick where are the other 57 sexes !
84,000+ people diagnosed tells more about the scale of testing being ramped up, than spread of covid19 but ,counting bodybags is a more relevant 1.200+ means at least were 120k infected already a week or more ago(takes time to kill folks) if the death rate is close to Korean 1.4%.
Who knows how many infected today should be well past 500k considering that lockdowns have barely started.
Italian body count just means that the scale of testing is no where near large enough (they are testing mostly folks that come for medical help) , once this stabilises i dont expect tham to have much higher mortality than anyone else
*My buddy that just got his second negative test on Tuesday now 'cured' , from the time he got infected to self quarantene which was only cca 36h him being infectus , infected about 8 and those infected further 10 that we know of , without any of them being out longer than about a day before CDC called them into quarantene, this shit spreads fast ,infected asyptomatic folks runing around can foster a infection bomb like they had in Italy at Champions League match on february 19 .
https://www.fr24news.com/n24/2020/0...ed-to-the-epicenter-of-a-deadly-epidemic.html
84,000+ people diagnosed tells more about the scale of testing being ramped up, than spread of covid19 but ,counting bodybags is a more relevant 1.200+ means at least were 120k infected already a week or more ago(takes time to kill folks) if the death rate is close to Korean 1.4%.
Who knows how many infected today should be well past 500k considering that lockdowns have barely started.
Italian body count just means that the scale of testing is no where near large enough (they are testing mostly folks that come for medical help) , once this stabilises i dont expect tham to have much higher mortality than anyone else
*My buddy that just got his second negative test on Tuesday now 'cured' , from the time he got infected to self quarantene which was only cca 36h him being infectus , infected about 8 and those infected further 10 that we know of , without any of them being out longer than about a day before CDC called them into quarantene, this shit spreads fast ,infected asyptomatic folks runing around can foster a infection bomb like they had in Italy at Champions League match on february 19 .
https://www.fr24news.com/n24/2020/0...ed-to-the-epicenter-of-a-deadly-epidemic.html
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Well these measures sure flattened the curve didn't they. ?
Its like I told my wife. They said stay home, and everyone ran to the store and infected everything and everyone. Fuckin stupid.
Its like I told my wife. They said stay home, and everyone ran to the store and infected everything and everyone. Fuckin stupid.
Yup, no gatherings over 100 people or something..... and hundreds and hundreds at the stores, Costco, etc. Everyone touching everything, snot-nosed kids that are always sick with something touching everything, etc.
Problem is that even if you calculate it like that virus had at least 2months head start ,as i am certain we got first infections in the west likely within first couple of weeks of this spreading around asia , CDC in multiple countries around China reported cases on 31st December .
Disregard the number of infections as that is just a metric of tests made. Deaths are best metric
1.300+ dead today morning sugests there were at least 130.000+ infected a week to 10 days ago(probably longer , 5.2 days incubation period ,and that there is no cases of death sooner than 6 days after symptoms and most take 10-14 days , so average infection to death time span could be anywhere between 11-20+days ). if you take conservative 3days to double the infection numbers that that gives minimum 520k - 1.1mio infected today .
Disregard the number of infections as that is just a metric of tests made. Deaths are best metric
1.300+ dead today morning sugests there were at least 130.000+ infected a week to 10 days ago(probably longer , 5.2 days incubation period ,and that there is no cases of death sooner than 6 days after symptoms and most take 10-14 days , so average infection to death time span could be anywhere between 11-20+days ). if you take conservative 3days to double the infection numbers that that gives minimum 520k - 1.1mio infected today .
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The thing with China though, we will never really know how many infected they had, and how many died, so you can take whatever they say with a grain of salt.
China said no one in the PLA got coronavirus despite many of the respondents being in the PLA. Its a blatant lie their numbers are made up. The death rate also seems higher in western counties. Asians might have a degree of natural immunity. If this was really wide spread in the US months ago we would have seen it in the ER. It is different then the flu people who get the flu don't normally burst the blood vessels in their lungs and suddenly die the way some people do from this.
Well now here's something interesting:
Johns Hopkins/Arcgis map/numbers indicate 753 recovered cases in the USA versus 1,301 deaths at the time of writing this.
Worldometers, on the other hand, indicates well over twice that at 1,868 recovered cases in the USA versus 1,304 deaths at the time of writing this.
However, the former lists a total of 86,012 cases at the time of writing and the latter is somewhat less at 85,755. I've found Worldometers to be more accurate than Arcgis several times over the course of this disease, especially when it comes to providing recovery numbers. Numbers can and will keep changing but does this mean the recoveries are really pushing ahead of the deaths now that the infection period is starting to end for a bunch of cases?
Johns Hopkins/Arcgis map/numbers indicate 753 recovered cases in the USA versus 1,301 deaths at the time of writing this.
Worldometers, on the other hand, indicates well over twice that at 1,868 recovered cases in the USA versus 1,304 deaths at the time of writing this.
However, the former lists a total of 86,012 cases at the time of writing and the latter is somewhat less at 85,755. I've found Worldometers to be more accurate than Arcgis several times over the course of this disease, especially when it comes to providing recovery numbers. Numbers can and will keep changing but does this mean the recoveries are really pushing ahead of the deaths now that the infection period is starting to end for a bunch of cases?
all the data has shown the CFR to be 1% when the healthcare system is not overrun and 5-10-% when it is. And all the data on testing shows that at the very most, 20-50% are truly asymptomatic. So all those assumptions above are simply wrong. This is far, far worse than the flu. If you don’t believe me go to NYC and check it out.
Meanwhile... In Iran ...
www.breitbart.com
Hundreds Die in Iran After Drinking Poison 'Cure' for Coronavirus
Iran media report nearly 300 people have been killed and more than 1,000 sickened so far by ingesting poisonous methanol.
www.breitbart.com
Not a challenge, can you throw up the modeling/source speaking to your first sentence?
Here is the text of the Bill before the House of Representatives today:
Use the drop down at the top to see their projections for your state.
April is going to be one hell of a month.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.covid19.healthdata.org
Fuck.
The best explanation is in section 2 of this article:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?
You can also look at worldometer and do the calculations for various countries. However China is a confounder, outside Wuhan it was about 1% and inside it was much higher again because the hospitals were overwhelmed.
The Diamond Princess, essentially a closed system where everyone was accounted for, had about 1% mortality:
Public Health Responses to COVID-19 Outbreaks on Cruise Ships...
More than 800 cases of laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases occurred during outbreaks on three cruise ship voyages, and cases linked to several additional cruises have been reported...
www.cdc.gov
Note also that most on that ship were tested and about half were asymptomatic, not 90% or whatever people keep hoping.
The hospitalization rate also seems to hold steady at 10%, so many parts of america are going to have a very exciting April.
That was the most horrifying thing I'd seen in the past 24 hours when I got it this morning.
Also, it should be shocking that such data is sold.
BTW, I haven't seen much discussion, but congress has been making great progress on EARN-IT, which will essentially eliminate freedom of speech on the internet and ban encryption. Surprised more here haven't taken note.
Meanwhile... In Iran ...
Hundreds Die in Iran After Drinking Poison 'Cure' for Coronavirus
Iran media report nearly 300 people have been killed and more than 1,000 sickened so far by ingesting poisonous methanol.
Why so much news on the "tragedies" in Iran?
I'm betting someone somewhere thinks we should help them...the world should help them....you know, humanitarian "aid".
Fuck
Them
Use the drop down at the top to see their projections for your state.
April is going to be one hell of a month.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
But I thought we were going to be back up and running by Easter?!?
There is a lot of talk in the auto industry about getting the Big 3's plants running again by mid-April. That only works if the whole country is back to normal, because factories in damn near every state must be running in order to build the parts that are needed to build cars (not to mention the stuff that comes from overseas). In other words, it ain't gonna happen unless by some miracle the states that aren't already showing widespread infection (Indiana, the Carolinas, etc.) are able to stay that way while other states wind down their infection rate. This seems like more of a May or June conversation.
A question or two for our Resident experts:
If a person came down with this virus back in January, battled their way through it and is back on their feet....
Is there a test available that can prove they actually had the corona virus?
Is it possible for this person to, again, get the corona virus?
Hobo
If a person came down with this virus back in January, battled their way through it and is back on their feet....
Is there a test available that can prove they actually had the corona virus?
Is it possible for this person to, again, get the corona virus?
Hobo
This was discussed a lot yesterday on the news. The belief is that an antibody test can be developed quickly, much faster than a vaccine.
By testing wide with it you can determine who's already had it and recovered and thus able to return to work and society with immunity.
The virus is believed to mutate slower than the flu, so likely at least a year of immunity or better once you've had it.
Most of the quick tests kits that look like pregnancy test are antibody tests ,these will likely work good enough .
''They will be expected to show positive 7 days after infection and/or 3 days after the onset of symptoms. During the asymptomatic phase (i.e. an infected patient is not showing symptoms) you may get a false negative result. ''
If those factories are on the CISA list, they are probably still rolling. I know we haven't backed off of planned production at all.....yet.
NOTHINGBURGER!!!
Now can we crank this motherfucker up and get back to taking names and kicking ass? And throwing those monkeyfucking congresscritters out on their fucking heads?
Now can we crank this motherfucker up and get back to taking names and kicking ass? And throwing those monkeyfucking congresscritters out on their fucking heads?
Parts plants that produce components fort service or for commercial vehicles have generally stayed open. A lot of others have not, and coordinating the ramp-up process is going to be a bitch.
I don't know the cash-burn rate of the Big 3 right now - they may not, either - but the race is most certainly one of ramping up the plants and finding ways to make dealers take those vehicles before the bank account runs dry.
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