The USD $

[Hobo Hilton]

When I hear the terms "Weak USD" or "Strong USD" I am curious as to how strength is measured. What I am being told is it's how the USD relates to a Market Basket of other countries currencies.
_________________
Understanding the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX)

The index is currently calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of six major world currencies, which include the Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Canadian dollar (CAD), British pound (GBP), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). The EUR is, by far, the largest component of the index, making up 57.6% of the basket. The weights of the rest of the currencies in the index are JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), and CHF (3.6%).1
__________________
Interesting that the Russian Ruble or the Chinese Yuan is not in the market basket.

Starting to seem like a "Strong USD" is similar to winning a gold metal at the Special Olympics.

 

[Rthur]

R

 

[HarryBC]

Simple measures can be the US Treasury Bond yields, my favorite is the price of gold… in US Dollars

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Simple measures can be the US Treasury Bond yields, my favorite is the price of gold… in US Dollars

As "things unfold" it will be interesting to watch gold. Throughout history there have been many players. Too many to mention, actually.

 

[NoDopes]

Not so sure...
Gold 1 year (-.25%) 10 years (+9%)
That doesn't seem to be tracking inflation to me...

 

[coachtech]

 

[JoshPutman]

The dollar may become worthless, but guns and ammo never will.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Not so sure...
Gold 1 year (-.25%) 10 years (+9%)
That doesn't seem to be tracking inflation to me...

True.... The "metal's" are not designed to keep pace with inflation... Apples to Oranges.
I'll throw this question out - "Long term, is there anything that will keep up with inflation"?

 

[NoDopes]

True.... The "metal's" are not designed to keep pace with inflation... Apples to Oranges.
I'll throw this question out - "Long term, is there anything that will keep up with inflation"?

I need to research this because I think REITs are the safe place. Not sure how rents won't generally have to keep up with inflation.

 

[Im2bent]

True.... The "metal's" are not designed to keep pace with inflation... Apples to Oranges.
I'll throw this question out - "Long term, is there anything that will keep up with inflation"?

Bidens bowels? Lulz when I typed "Bidens" spellchecker changed it to bidet, too funny.

 

[vinniedelpino]

True.... The "metal's" are not designed to keep pace with inflation... Apples to Oranges.
I'll throw this question out - "Long term, is there anything that will keep up with inflation"?

TIPS

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

TIPS

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.

True... Unfortunately this is tied to the CPI.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)​

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, provide protection against inflation. The principal of a TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. When a TIPS matures, you are paid the adjusted principal or original principal, whichever is greater.


TIPS pay interest twice a year, at a fixed rate. The rate is applied to the adjusted principal; so, like the principal, interest payments rise with inflation and fall with deflation.


You can buy TIPS from us in TreasuryDirect. You also can buy TIPS through a bank or broker. (We no longer sell TIPS in Legacy Treasury Direct, which we are phasing out.)


You can hold a TIPS until it matures or sell it before it matures.

 

[sea2summit]

The dollar may become worthless, but guns and ammo never will.

Shoot, NFA items purchased in the late ‘70’s are probably up 900-1500%

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I need to research this because I think REITs are the safe place. Not sure how rents won't generally have to keep up with inflation.

FED is talking more and more about raising interest rates. I did a copy / past on this sentence = Economic climates characterized by rising interest rates can cause a net negative effect on REIT shares.

Real estate investment trust - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Charger442]

Shoot, NFA items purchased in the late ‘70’s are probably up 900-1500%

well, lets be specific. FA NFA items in the lates 70s.....


and those are up 8,000%. M16A1 was $500 in the 70s plus the $200 tax.

 

[eca7891]

Low pe high dividend aristocrate stocks.

Bank stocks in rising rate environment.

Both are not bad options.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Low pe high dividend aristocrate stocks.

Bank stocks in rising rate environment.

Both are not bad options.

The Low pe high dividend aristocrate stocks have had a good 2021. If you chart many of them they ran up great in December... A buy now could be at the peak of the market. Charted a few like ADM, AFL, WBA that had spectacular run ups but looking like the top is formed after the FED minutes were released. MMM is not so good, don't know why............ BAC popped up in the last few days, probably some Buying to Cover...

Banks and rising rates could just be a roller coaster for 2022.... In 2009 BAC fell from $55 down to $5 (Too big to fail).. Holding some of these is good management as the old saying goes "Don't put all of your eggs in one basket"....

Snug your seat belt.

 

[vinniedelpino]

True... Unfortunately this is tied to the CPI.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)​

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, provide protection against inflation. The principal of a TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. When a TIPS matures, you are paid the adjusted principal or original principal, whichever is greater.


TIPS pay interest twice a year, at a fixed rate. The rate is applied to the adjusted principal; so, like the principal, interest payments rise with inflation and fall with deflation.


You can buy TIPS from us in TreasuryDirect. You also can buy TIPS through a bank or broker. (We no longer sell TIPS in Legacy Treasury Direct, which we are phasing out.)


You can hold a TIPS until it matures or sell it before it matures.

True. That's the best I've got though.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

True. That's the best I've got though.

I agree........ I was hoping one of the Members had an "ace up their sleeve" where we could just park some cash for the duration and at least break even. So far weapons and ammo sound the best..... But, what if you had to make a quick move for the hills.

 

[TxLabRat]

Shoot, NFA items purchased in the late ‘70’s are probably up 900-1500%

well, lets be specific. FA NFA items in the lates 70s.....


and those are up 8,000%. M16A1 was $500 in the 70s plus the $200 tax.

Exactly! I just completed a transaction of an NFA item I purchased in the mid 80s. 2100% profit. Sadly this is only about 52% per year.
I was buying M16s for $765 total price shipped. The good ol' days.

 

[sea2summit]

Exactly! I just completed a transaction of an NFA item I purchased in the mid 80s. 2100% profit. Sadly this is only about 52% per year.
I was buying M16s for $765 total price shipped. The good ol' days.

Cut me some slack, I wasn’t even born

 

[eca7891]

The Low pe high dividend aristocrate stocks have had a good 2021. If you chart many of them they ran up great in December... A buy now could be at the peak of the market. Charted a few like ADM, AFL, WBA that had spectacular run ups but looking like the top is formed after the FED minutes were released. MMM is not so good, don't know why............ BAC popped up in the last few days, probably some Buying to Cover...

Banks and rising rates could just be a roller coaster for 2022.... In 2009 BAC fell from $55 down to $5 (Too big to fail).. Holding some of these is good management as the old saying goes "Don't put all of your eggs in one basket"....

Snug your seat belt.

Yeah. Ya gotta do your homework.

I dropped Tesla a week ago for AT&T. ( T will be spinning off their media and cutting their dividend but you get shares of the new company) T has a ex div date this Friday (8%+ forward div and yield)

Split some between 3 big banks ( word is to go regionals )

Split some more in bigger dividend oil plays.

Most of my dividend ones are at about 6.5%-8%.

Still kept some in nvidia even though its prob a bad call. I have always believed in them though. I’ll roll some back into Tesla when I think it has fallen to my liking.

 

[HeavyAssault]

Value is always held by the beholder. Everything can become worthless, somethings are priceless. Ever think of what you can't own that is priceless....what are you willing to pay for it??

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Yeah. Ya gotta do your homework.

I dropped Tesla a week ago for AT&T. ( T will be spinning off their media and cutting their dividend but you get shares of the new company) T has a ex div date this Friday (8%+ forward div and yield)

Split some between 3 big banks ( word is to go regionals )

Split some more in bigger dividend oil plays.

Most of my dividend ones are at about 6.5%-8%.

Still kept some in nvidia even though its prob a bad call. I have always believed in them though. I’ll roll some back into Tesla when I think it has fallen to my liking.

Ahhhh "Homework".... Picked one line from a very timely article.

As we have explained in prior letters, this dynamic is part of a transition that the US government is undertaking by rolling maturing short-term Treasuries into long term debt instruments as it prepares to inflate out of an unsustainable debt problem.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[eca7891]

This is why countries are issuing 50 and 100 year bonds.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

One more gold metal for the USD...... Beat the yen... LOL
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SYDNEY, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The dollar is set to notch up a fifth consecutive weekly gain on the Japanese yen and looks poised to extend the rally if U.S. labour data due later on Friday reinforces the case for early Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

 

[Charger442]

One more gold metal for the USD...... Beat the yen... LOL
_____________________
SYDNEY, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The dollar is set to notch up a fifth consecutive weekly gain on the Japanese yen and looks poised to extend the rally if U.S. labour data due later on Friday reinforces the case for early Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

Jobs added were low compared to expectations. What's that going to do?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Jobs added were low compared to expectations. What's that going to do?

America could add jobs until hell freezes over and not save the sinking ship (the USD). The trade deficit is staggering....
Look at it this way. If a man brings home $1,000 / week and his wife spends $2,000 week maintaining the household... How long can that situation go on?

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the United States last had a budget surplus during fiscal year 2001.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2021 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.1 billion in October, down $14.3 billion from $81.4 billion in September, revised.

www.bea.gov

 

[Charger442]

America could add jobs until hell freezes over and not save the sinking ship (the USD). The trade deficit is staggering....
Look at it this way. If a man brings home $1,000 / week and his wife spends $2,000 week maintaining the household... How long can that situation go on?

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the United States last had a budget surplus during fiscal year 2001.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2021 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.1 billion in October, down $14.3 billion from $81.4 billion in September, revised.

www.bea.gov

what does the wife look like?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

what does the wife look like?

Sort of favors the Kardashian's.

 

[eca7891]

Sort of favors the Kardashian's.

She had better have the bank account to match.

 

[Charger442]

Sort of favors the Kardashian's.

Send her to renegotiate the debt.

Just kidding. I get your point

 

[Hobo Hilton]

An excellent example of "Fund Manager's" playing with other people's money. Deja Vu of the investments into the limited partnership oil industry scam back in the 70's.
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Blackstone Inc.'s infrastructure unit has agreed to invest $3 billion in Invenergy Renewables Holdings LLC, as the private-equity firm throws more support to the clean energy transition.
The investment will help Invenergy develop its clean energy platform, the companies said in a joint release.
Invenergy's management and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, one of the largest public pension plans in Canada, will remain majority owners of the company. Invenergy will continue to be a managing member, the companies said.
______________________________________
Blackstone will get their cut, the Canadian pension fund managers will get their cut and the rank and file pension members are taking 100% of the risk. Something for everyone who is counting on a pension when they retire to think about.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

She had better have the bank account to match.

eca7891​

Maybe she is running on credit

U.S. consumer credit soared by $40 billion in November, more than double expectations and compared with a $16 billion gain in October, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.
Economists had been expecting a $20 billion gain, according to the Wall Street Journal forecast.
That’s an annual growth rate of 11% in November, up from a 4.4% gain in the prior month.
Revolving credit, such as credit cards, rose 23.4% after a 7.8% gain in October.

The trap has been set.

 

[RGStory]

True.... The "metal's" are not designed to keep pace with inflation... Apples to Oranges.
I'll throw this question out - "Long term, is there anything that will keep up with inflation"?

Land.
Except for a few select spots in the world they stopped making it a long time ago.

Energy.
The more we make the more people use.

Women.
They will always try to take at least half of what you own.

Freedom.
The butcher's bill will always be paid in blood.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Like rats off of a sinking ship..... And these are the clowns that got America into this mess....

Fed’s Richard Clarida to Leave Vice Chair Position Two Weeks Early

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida intends to resign from the board of governors on Jan. 14, two weeks before his term is due to expire. Most Read from BloombergCypriot Scientist Says Deltacron Covid Variant Isn’t ErrorWorld’s Biggest Crypto Fortune Began With a Friendly...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

 

[HarryBC]

Like rats off of a sinking ship..... And these are the clowns that got America into this mess....

Fed’s Richard Clarida to Leave Vice Chair Position Two Weeks Early

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida intends to resign from the board of governors on Jan. 14, two weeks before his term is due to expire. Most Read from BloombergCypriot Scientist Says Deltacron Covid Variant Isn’t ErrorWorld’s Biggest Crypto Fortune Began With a Friendly...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

You are correct sir! The Fed has stayed with 0 interest and free money too long in my opinion, now with 4 incremental rate hikes this coming year, will be a bumpy ride for sure……

 

[Hobo Hilton]

A question for the Hide:
What is going to become an "Alternate form of Currency" in the next year ?

From bes to Bitcoin: alternative currencies in the ancient Roman world

Be it Bristol or Brixton, in recent years a number of cities in Britain have developed their own alternative, local currencies. Intended to support independent businesses, these currencies work alongside pounds sterling to encourage more money to be spent in the local economy. But, as historian...

www.historyextra.com

 

[tomcatmv]

Perhaps brass, copper and lead?

 

[RGStory]

Perhaps brass, copper and lead?

Ha. I've already been trading 50 rnd boxes of CCI .22 shorts at a local store.
Shop owner couldn't find rounds for his shop pistol.

I have some to spare.

Simple solutions.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Perhaps brass, copper and lead?

Don't be laughing about copper.... One of the most consistent commodities.

Kitco - Spot Copper Historical Charts and Graphs - Copper charts - Industrial metals

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Bitcoin is Not Backed by Nothing - Unchained

Bitcoin is not backed by nothing. It has a fixed supply and is finitely scarce. Only 21 million bitcoin will ever exist. But how and why is that?

unchained.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Many corporations would have you believe that the strong U.S. dollar is why earnings targets likely will be missed. Yeah, and the dog ate my homework.

Companies are trying to blame weak earnings on the strong U.S. dollar, but that's a lame excuse

A strong U.S. dollar does reduce the dollar value of foreign sales, but that's only half of the story.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Low pe high dividend aristocrate stocks.

Bank stocks in rising rate environment.

Both are not bad options.

Egypt's pound falls further against US dollar | MEO

www.middle-east-online.com