I see NoKo (and Iran), as being at the same stage as Iraq when we were weighing the options of dealing with (or without) another Hitler hopeful (Saddam). Mother of all Battles was the word of the day. That threat was as hollow as they come. I would suspect that regardless of their conscripts' zeal, they would probably be out of assets in a few days following initiation of hostilities.
NoKo has impressive artillery assets facing SoKo. That's what Counter Battery doctrine is configured to resolve.
We have faced China before, once in NoKo, and once in Vietnam. For once, we have a diplomatic channel to their leadership.
I think that recent faint overtures toward India have promise as an offsetting factor regarding China. India also has a positive relationship toward Russia, with Russian Aviation assets now being constructed in tandem with them,. I think India is a valuable conduit for resolving differences between the US, Russia, and China.
First Noko, then Iran.
No conflict was ever resolved by artillery and/or air power, except for the Japanese. They can speak uniquely from the receiving end. With respect to Japan's constitution, I would be willing to suggest that once the constitutional matters were altered in favor, Japan could probably be a nuclear power within weeks. I can think of no Nation more willing and likely to Nuke NoKo than Japan, given the necessary tweaks to their constitution. After SoKo, Japan is most vulnerable to NoKo aggression.
Wouldn't it be an interesting proposition if a NoKo missile/weapon got off course and impacted in China? In terms of simple proximity, China shares vulnerability with SoKo. It wouldn't even need to impact, all it would need to do would be to curve toward an impact. At that point, the NoKo adjacent loose cannon would be both a hazard, and unpredictable. Heck that's no more than it is already.
Does anybody really think the Chinese haven't already prepared for such an eventuality? When NoKo looks at us as a potential threat, shouldn't they also be looking North West as well? China could/would smoke them at the drop of a hat if they ever turned dangerous to China. Aren't they already? As much as China would prefer not having a US Ally on their SE border, how much less would they prefer having an overconfident and fully capable nuclear power on their SE border.
We think that the cabal supporting Rocket Boy has their interests in keeping him happy, but ask yourselves, just how many of them are really Kim Keepers on the Chinese payroll?
Bottom line, Rocket Boy has the bit in his teeth. He is not stupid, but he is also insulated from what we might consider constructive criticism. He will not stop increasing his threat capacity until somebody makes him stop. Pay the piper now, or take him out of the equation entirely, it's still gonna hurt bad, and there really are no effective alternatives remaining. Obama did the former, and look where it got us. I got us here.
Then, Iran.
Greg
