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U.S. dollar - serious question
- Thread starter kortik
- Start date
The Dollar is not going anywhere as a Reserve Currency.
There are no alternatives. The EURO is junk, the Yaun? Fucking who trusts the Chinese for anything? PM's? Maybe but the price of physical would skyrock to where an OZ of gold would be a million bucks +. There would still be paper/electronic money. Fiat is here to stay.
Now you may see inflation and there may be opportunities to make money but until the US economy is destroyed and more importantly, the US military is not the biggest dick in the bathroom, that not going to change.
There are a few dozen families who control 50%+ of the worlds wealth. They are the ones who create wars, pandemics, destroy nations, create economic disasters. Want to make the world a better/safer place? Eliminate them.
There are no alternatives. The EURO is junk, the Yaun? Fucking who trusts the Chinese for anything? PM's? Maybe but the price of physical would skyrock to where an OZ of gold would be a million bucks +. There would still be paper/electronic money. Fiat is here to stay.
Now you may see inflation and there may be opportunities to make money but until the US economy is destroyed and more importantly, the US military is not the biggest dick in the bathroom, that not going to change.
There are a few dozen families who control 50%+ of the worlds wealth. They are the ones who create wars, pandemics, destroy nations, create economic disasters. Want to make the world a better/safer place? Eliminate them.
I read your opinion and let it settle in for a day.......... 50 years ago, I'd agree.... It's a much different situation today. With the Chinese, it's not a matter of trust... Seems the world is ready to "Dance With The Devil"... Gold = The folks in Texas have this figured out. I'd guess, at this time, Texas has more physical gold than the US Treasury.... The Chinese have played this game for 3,000 years (Sun Tzu).... Kind of like watching an SEC football game, don't get up and leave the stadium with 2 minutes to play. Could be some surprises...
Hobo
Hyperinflation is here, right now. Stagflation will be here by the end of the year.
As long as the price of fuel, ground meat and potatoes remain low, the average American will not notice inflation. A large percentage of Americans are being supplemented by the US Government and could care less about inflation. If you want a few benchmarks for inflation, go out and buy a new pickup truck, build a new house or try to find some physical gold to buy.
Hobo
So, what is the next world reserve currency?
Food. Did you notice Bill Gates is now the largest farm land owner in America. Look at the largest farming operations in America and dig deep enough to see who really owns them. Historically when countries collapse we read about "A loaf of bread cost a wheel barrow full of currency"....
You can't eat gold or oil.
Hobo
The chinese have been eating shit for 3000 years and have been steamrolled by every conpetent civilization in that time. The Japanese made them their bitches not that long ago.
Reserve currency is all about trust. Its what peolpe decide to hold their assets in. Actual dollar demand around globe is massive despite electronic money creation. If you are in a shithole country that has a coup every 10 years and a new currency, you buy dollars for the stability and as a preservation of wealth. There is no alternative because every other currency is a worse form of fiat.
The US dollar is backed by the US military. Most of the wars we have been into the last 50 year are about the petro dollar. The world knows this.
That is not changing anytime soon.
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Ahhhh, the "Petro Dollar"....... The rest of the world is trading in many different ways for petro. The USD is steadily loosing ground and is no longer a bench mark for oil trade.. America, the USD and US Oil could disappear today the rest of the world would continue right along.... They did for thousands of years before America showed up on the radar. The world of denial is a "Warm and Fuzzy" place for most Americans. When a country finds it's dug itself into a hole..... the first thing to do is stop digging.
Hobo
Everything is pegged to the USD. You are right that will not happen forever but there are no viable alternatives.
The US is geographically separated from out enemies, has 2 oceans, plentiful natural resources, enough farmland to feed the world and the strongest military the world has ever sense along with the most free nation there is.
The US navy could blockade our biggest adversary and starve them out in a month. They know it and we know it.
The US is geographically separated from out enemies, has 2 oceans, plentiful natural resources, enough farmland to feed the world and the strongest military the world has ever sense along with the most free nation there is.
The US navy could blockade our biggest adversary and starve them out in a month. They know it and we know it.
If the USD disappeared today the world would come to a screeching halt and burn to the ground. Over 90% of the foreign exchange transactions last year were in USD. This country accounts for 1/4 of global economic activity, but 1/2 of all international bank loans and debts securities are denominated in US dollars. I know the doomsday mentality has gone nuts in the Bear Pit since last summer, but good grief maybe take a deep breath and a chill pill and sit back and do a little educational reading on the googles minus Zero Hedge and blogs. Yes the dollar is struggling, but even if/when there might be a change one day there needs to be a viable alternative and there is none. It's almost as if some of the people around here want this to happen and are looking for reasons to try and make it sound plausible and just around the corner. Our central bank is screwing the pooch and so is everyone elses, but the rest of the world at a much worse pace and w/o any kind of economy that can dig out of it like ours can.
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A morning headline....
www.morningstar.com
Service side of U.S. economy speeds up in January, ISM finds, signals faster growth
"Service".... Article attached. Note that they did not even quote what the leading manufacturer's said.
Market News – MarketWatch | Morningstar
Find out what's happening in the market, today from MarketWatch by Dow Jones.
Crabs is correct about the lack of alternative being the biggest issue in supplanting the dollar. People tend to think of other currencies as static in regards to policy, while their own is devastated by their bad government. This is not the case, as most governments suck at least as badly as ours, with the Eurozone being most problematic. Currency prices relative to other currencies are relative, not absolute prices, so we have to be way more retarded than them to make a big change.
I don't agree that we have major inflation in this country. Some goods are getting more expensive, some goods are getting less. hat you generally see is inflation in sectors where increased productivity is hard to come by, and deflation elsewhere. The latter is an increasing percentage of the economy and the former a decreasing. That isn't to say there aren't changes in the basket, but changes shouldn't necessarily be seen as fuckery. Inflation is, for many reasons, some of which seem like witchcraft, very well contained these days.
I don't agree that we have major inflation in this country. Some goods are getting more expensive, some goods are getting less. hat you generally see is inflation in sectors where increased productivity is hard to come by, and deflation elsewhere. The latter is an increasing percentage of the economy and the former a decreasing. That isn't to say there aren't changes in the basket, but changes shouldn't necessarily be seen as fuckery. Inflation is, for many reasons, some of which seem like witchcraft, very well contained these days.
Capitalism, as it existed and once was, no longer exists and will be overwritten by a new System in the next 30-100 years. The money/tokens of Wealth and exchange will be replaced so they are basically becoming worthless until a new System is deployed.
VooDoo
VooDoo
1. I have to agree that in the nearest future US dollar has no competition as a reserve currency of the world.
2. It does not hurt to be educated about history of the world and what already has happened in the past. British Pound Sterling, for example?
3. When/If foreign holders of the U.S. dollars starts buying/bidding on U.S. assets, we'll have a super inflation, unless U.S. banes such transactions.
There is just too big oversupply of U.S. dollars outside the U.S. Looks to me as huge negative for the U.S. providing the world reserve currency.
2. It does not hurt to be educated about history of the world and what already has happened in the past. British Pound Sterling, for example?
3. When/If foreign holders of the U.S. dollars starts buying/bidding on U.S. assets, we'll have a super inflation, unless U.S. banes such transactions.
There is just too big oversupply of U.S. dollars outside the U.S. Looks to me as huge negative for the U.S. providing the world reserve currency.
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# 3...... True
As we speak there is yet another effort brewing to throw money at the pandemic:
Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen joined the Democratic senators for a private virtual meeting Tuesday, both declaring the Republicans' $618 billion offer was too small. They urged big fast action to stem the pandemic crisis and economic fallout.
$618 billion................. bumping on $1 Trillion. Helicopter money never worked in the past... Kicking the can down the road.
Meanwhile:
Global Auto Chip Shortage, Exacerbated By Locked-Down Gamers, Should Recover Soon
Global Auto Chip Shortage, Exacerbated By Locked-Down Gamers, Should Recover Soon
The global auto chip shortage, exacerbated by locked-down gamers, should recover by year end. Initial reports had suggested the shortage for the automotive industry might disrupt production until 2023. VW will be hit the hardest by the shortage, while Toyota looks like being the least scathed.
www.forbes.com
Just a thought... Maybe it's time for the US to produce something.
Hobo
European Government Bonds Yields - Investing.com
Current data on European government bond yields, including the yield, daily high, low and change% for each bond.
The negative rates are largely isolated to the EU zone because their charter restricts deficits. This is where the pandemic scam comes in HUGE for the EU and provides an exception to the deficit rev limiter. The same applies to the US with the top-cover for massive deficit spending and the extraordinary Federal Reserve emergency facilities.
EU Charter
Stability and Growth Pact - Wikipedia
The European economy since the start of the millennium - A strong increase of government debt
The difference between government revenue and expenditure shows either the surplus or the deficit of a country.
ec.europa.eu
Look at Bernie's proposed 6 trillion dollar government budget, and at Janet-Quantitative-Easing-Yellen's appointment to Secretary of the Treasury, and listen to WEF statements and corporate CEO donors to the Dems talk about "the shift from a stockholder economy to a stakeholder economy," as well as the continued talk about having to move away from cash, for health reasons and COVID, not at all because cash is less controllable by governments. Right. Then why do they hate cryptocurrency and blockchain technology so much?
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I also like to live with positive though, and our total nations gross product is still pretty huge . Federal Government could aggressively move to reduce national 'public owed' debt . I must be living on the fringe for even thinking this ? . It looks to me like there are 541 people working 1/2 time jobs, with full staff serving them who work full time . Dictating all fiscal policy with a premeditated malicious intent TO NOT Turn It Around and Dig Out Of This .
Can someone show me one example of Federal Government making just one attempt that resembles setting policies to reduce national public debt ? National Finance is not my forte, but to me, it looks like the working premeditated plan is in continuously engineering spending policy, that works around budget and spending limits .
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Currency manipulation along the way will outweight virtually anything individuals can do to to hedge against future - and every country with their own currency manipulates everytime they buy, sell or convert their own currency.
Remember Germany turning on the printing presses in the 1920's to pay off their reparations? At one point the paper the currency was printed on was worth more than the value of the currency. Argentina?....
What happened when governments tightened their belts fiscally (took currency out of circulation)? Their currency often became more valuable than other currencies.
When you look at the US debt held by numerous other large countries, a small spiteful comment or implied action from China or Russia could cause the buying power of the dollar to drop 20% overnight. I saw that happen to the Korean Won while living there in the 90's, something the US and other central banks saying their currency couldn't be supported, and boom.
But with virtually every country in a similar spot, it's unlikely we'll suffer substantially different than other countries.
Remember Germany turning on the printing presses in the 1920's to pay off their reparations? At one point the paper the currency was printed on was worth more than the value of the currency. Argentina?....
What happened when governments tightened their belts fiscally (took currency out of circulation)? Their currency often became more valuable than other currencies.
When you look at the US debt held by numerous other large countries, a small spiteful comment or implied action from China or Russia could cause the buying power of the dollar to drop 20% overnight. I saw that happen to the Korean Won while living there in the 90's, something the US and other central banks saying their currency couldn't be supported, and boom.
But with virtually every country in a similar spot, it's unlikely we'll suffer substantially different than other countries.
The US is getting a little weaker every day and eventually our strength will be all gone. There are reasons our allies like Canada are training Chinese troops on their soil and it's nots because they are supporting us. I'm not worried about today the US has weathered storms before but what happens if we allow this bleeding to continue? Anyone remember when Britain had control of the seas or when Rome had control of the world? If it isn't nurtured everyday it weakens and dies but it doesn't happen over night.
I wasn't around from 1870 to 1914 but that's when "Britain had (one of) the largest economy and controlled the seas" as a few have put it.
Short of a Dr. Strangelove "Doomsday Machine" scenario (as in every other country get's nuked except yours), it takes many decades to rise substantially when few structural changes happen to an economy. (ie.; China's rise over 80 years from 1940's to 2020). On the other hand, look at Venezuela and the mess the socialist created there: arguably the best economy in Latin America goes to hell after 3 years of nationalization and socialism.
Short of a Dr. Strangelove "Doomsday Machine" scenario (as in every other country get's nuked except yours), it takes many decades to rise substantially when few structural changes happen to an economy. (ie.; China's rise over 80 years from 1940's to 2020). On the other hand, look at Venezuela and the mess the socialist created there: arguably the best economy in Latin America goes to hell after 3 years of nationalization and socialism.
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You must have got that mixed up Gore suffers from blockhead, common mistake. And stakeholders actually hold diddly until now because they also haven't put money into anything, stockholders actually invest their hard earned money into businesses hoping the yahoos will return some when they make profit. As for my cash I think I'll hold on to it for now until Yellen/Biden turns it into completely useless paper since TP is about to get scarce soon enough again and at an exchange rate where many large bills will only buy one small piece of Charmin it might just become a new commodity in a truly "sh*tty" economy.
Good post. I do feel that if a considerable part of "out of the U.S." dollars will start coming back to the U.S., we'll be really fucked domestically. Then, money reform will be need.
U.S. gains just 49,000 jobs in January, with labor market still under acute stress
__________________________Live Updates: January 2021 Drug Price Increases
History repeating
Live Updates: January 2021 Drug Price Hikes - GoodRx
Every January, manufacturers raise the prices of their medications. GoodRx will be tracking price increases for 4,595 medications this month and providing daily updates. Prices are expected to increase despite the pandemic and the economic damage it’s caused for many Americans.
Thanks Hobo for the drug price link, this will be interesting to watch. On the jobs / unemployment front......I've become skeptical of these numbers from about 3 months before presidential elections and 6 months after a president, as directives come down to agencies on "how to count".
After 6 months to a year, the current administration can't lie too much as the next month would require an even bigger lie that soon would become obvious.
After 6 months to a year, the current administration can't lie too much as the next month would require an even bigger lie that soon would become obvious.
I agree....
News out this morning about those "numbers"
Stalling U.S. labor market supports push for massive stimulus package
February 5, 2021
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. employment growth rebounded moderately in January and job losses in the prior month were deeper than initially thought, strengthening the case for a sizable relief package from the government to aid the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday showed job losses in manufacturing and construction, two sectors which have been propping up the economy. There were further job losses at restaurants and bars. Retailers and employers in the transportation industry also laid off workers.
Millions of Americans are experiencing long bouts of unemployment and permanent job losses, while others have given up searching for work. President Joe Biden is pushing the U.S. Congress to pass a $1.9 trillion recovery plan, which has been met with resistance from mostly Republican lawmakers, now worried about the swelling national debt.
The House of Representatives prepared on Friday to take up a budget measure that would let Democrats push the massive package through Congress in coming weeks without Republican support.
“The weakness portrayed in today’s labor report opens the door for the Biden administration to push forward with a higher spending package and provide relief for many Americans and businesses that continue to struggle with the pandemic,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 49,000 jobs last month. Data for December was revised to show 227,000 jobs lost instead of 140,000 as previously reported. Employment is 9.9 million jobs below its peak in February 2020. The economy created 250,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2020 than previously estimated, the government also reported.
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated employment would not return to its pre-pandemic level before 2024. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 50,000 jobs in January.
December’s drop in payrolls was the first in eight months and came amid renewed restrictions on businesses like restaurants and bars to slow a resurgence in coronavirus infections. Though those curbs on businesses continued into the first half of January, there is reason for cautious optimism as some employment measures have been stabilizing since the second half of January as authorities began easing restrictions.
The government surveyed businesses and households for January’s employment report in the middle of the month. It noted the response rate to the survey was “slightly below average.”
Nearly $900 billion in additional relief money provided by the government at the end of December and the acceleration in the distribution of vaccines for the virus will likely lift hiring in the months ahead. In addition, the pace of COVID-19 infections appears to have peaked in early January, a trend that could give a lift to hiring in the months ahead, should it hold.
Infections hit a one-day record of roughly 300,000 in early January but by month’s end were averaging closer to 100,000 a day, with most of the country seeing a downward trend, according to a Reuters tally.
“We are hopeful that January will mark the low point for 2021 job creation,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. “Much stronger jobs figures are likely from the second quarter onwards.”
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower.
(Graphic: The jobs hole facing Biden The jobs hole facing Biden: https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/JOBS/xlbpgygrnpq/chart.png)
LONG ROAD TO RECOVERY
Last month, manufacturing payrolls decreased by 10,000 jobs, while employment at construction sites dropped by 3,000.
Retailers shed 38,000 jobs and healthcare employment declined by 30,000. The transportation and warehousing industry lost 28,000 jobs. There were 61,000 job losses in the leisure and hospitality sector. But employment in professional and business services increased by 97,000.
Government payrolls rose by 43,000 jobs, lifted by gains in state and local government education.
Though the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3% in January from 6.7% in December, that was because many people gave up looking for work. The jobless rate was also pulled down by people misclassifying themselves as being “employed but absent from work.” Without this misclassification, it would have been 6.9%.
Just over 4 million Americans have been unemployed for more than six weeks, accounting for 39.5% of the jobless in January. The ranks of those who have permanently lost their jobs increased to 3.5 million from 3.4 million in December.
The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, dipped to 61.4% from 61.5% in December. The participation rate has declined significantly during the pandemic, with women accounting for the biggest share of dropouts.
That has been attributed to difficulties securing childcare as many schools remain closed for in-person learning.
“There is still an enormous amount of work to do to get back to maximum employment,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York.
The report also underscored the so-called K-shaped recovery, where better-paid workers are doing well while lower-paid workers are losing out. The continued decimation of lower-paying jobs boosted annual wage growth to 5.4% from 5.1% in December.
“Businesses and the administration will need to work together to implement policies and programs which close this diverging gap and ensure displaced Americans can return to the work force.
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