Why the polls are so out of wack explained...

[Fig]

"Latest "Party Affiliation" data from Gallup shows Republicans slightly overtaking Democrats: Republicans: 28% Democrats: 27% Independents 42% Note: Dems -3 from previous (30% to 27%) Last Republican lead was pre-Covid--Feb 28"

Party Affiliation

In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (Asked of independents: As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?)

news.gallup.com

Almost every media-generated poll is using data compiled just before the 2016 election, which was: 36% D, 27% R and 31% Independent, a 9-point edge for the Democrats. You have to understand, this is where the edge they're giving to Democrats starts before they even poll anyone. Think about that. Right now nationally it's R+1, but they're polling D+9!

But wait, it gets better! Several of the Real Clear Politics polls, that are included in that average, are using the breakdown from just before the 2018 mid-term elections, which was: 38%D, 27%R and 31% Independent, a whopping 11 point edge for the Democrats.

If any of the pollsters were not using numbers from years past (that weren't even accurate then) it is likely that it would show Trump with a commanding lead in every single battleground state, and even most states that their polling indicates "leans Biden".

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

2020 Electoral College Map

www.realclearpolitics.com

Even if using the 2016 numbers you can basically add 10% to Trump because of the purposeful bias in the poll. He's almost winning Connecticut if you do that. This is going to be an epic landslide, and the full effects of the Biden Crime Family's malfeasance and selling our foreign policy for personal gain (much less if charges of pedophilia are true) has not even impacted any of these numbers yet.

 

[diverdon]

Thanks great post. In 2016 I got five calls from pollsters. I told each of them that it was "None of their fucking business" then hung up. They have not called me this year. So who has the time and inclination to talk to these assholes? Democrats!

 

[OldSalty2]

When does the fat lady sing?

A couple months after the votes are uh, "counted" and litigation is fast-tracked to scotus.

 

[Fig]

The outcome may hinge on who wins the riots.

 

[EGwhisper]

Those polls are generated from banner ads on twitter, facebook, and other trash sites. People who are smart don't give a shit about telling other people their political opinions and doing those stupid polls.

 

[Jgault]

The polls have such a huge spread now depending on who conducts them it renders them all but useless, I have hopes but honestly don’t have a clue how this will go, but in the end it will be a mess.

 

[diverdon]

The outcome may hinge on who wins the riots.

Putting down riots is the job of LE. I understand the desire to help. I would not. Let cops do their job. Let people elect politicians who let LE do it's job.

 

[Josh1978]

Thanks great post. In 2016 I got five calls from pollsters. I told each of them that it was "None of their fucking business" then hung up. They have not called me this year. So who has the time and inclination to talk to these assholes? Democrats!

Because they are the majority that is sitting around collecting welfare and pushing out kids on the backs of hard working REPUBLICANS!

 

[MolonIIA]

Because "pollsters" rig the polls. Fuck you Frank!

 

[timbrline]

While the pol’s are always slighted in Dem favor, so much do that it’s almost automatic that when when you hear a state is “close”... that’s great news, Rep wins easy!

I really believe this time they WANT a highly skewed pol number. As posted previously, it’s a demoralizing attempt at turnout. However, for all the rubbs that believe Biden is up by 10..or 15 points, and suddenly Trump wins by a huge margin, they can sit aghast on msm and declare “how can it be... everyone knows Biden was up by massive margins yet Trump won... how can it be... it must be fraud, it must be hacking, it must be Russian’s...”. After all, if you automatically assume the polls are 100% correct, which the msm will site 4-5 of them to self validate one another, then it must be some sort of Trump malfeasance!! To the streets, take back your country from Bad Orange Racist who cheated.. the polls show it clearly!!

...and.... off we go.

 

[Fig]

They were off last time too, and for almost the same reasons. Nothing has changed.