WV gunshop facebook page

[In2b8u]

Looks bleak for a while.......

WV Gunshop Facebook Page - Interesting Info

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Valle...00351049990151

A local gun shop here went to Texas for Industry meetings for the gun shortages. This is what they were told and they posted it to their face book page. I copied it and now I'm going to paste here. ( told them I was doing so) They also said that there would be more updates *shrugs*
Here you go. From their page:

Status Update
By Valley Guns II
Attention F.B. fans: to follow will be several IMPORTANT Info updates about the status of the gun industry currently, followed by an INVENTORY UPDATE: 1) We traveled to Texas for Industry meetings concerning the shortages, here's what we were told. Smith & Wesson-is running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day-mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortages. RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days. FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1. Remington-Maxed out! Armalite: Maxed out. DPMS: Can't get enough parts to produce any more product. COLT: Production runs increasing weekly...bottle necked by Bolt carrier's. LWRC:Making only black guns, running at full capacity...can't get enough gun quality steel to make barrels. Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand but are running 30-45 days behind.

AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/ of 1 BILLION rnds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line. MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags, do not expect any large quanties of magpul anytime soon. RELOADERS!!!!

ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra's for reloading purposes....it could be 6-9 months b/f things get caught up. Sorry for the bleek news, but now we know what to expect in the coming months. Stay tuned, we'll keep you posted. To follow is our inventory update for 1/26/13. Please share this info with your shooting buddies. Shoot safe!

 

[BigJohn141]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

Wow, just wow. Thanks for posting this.

 

[K_4c]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

If that's true.... F me!

 

[steveptr]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

And damn the bad luck

 

[CharlieTN]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

Let me counter this with some insight. I am a salesman for a shooting sports wholesaler. I've been here over 7 years and lived through the post election rush the first time.

A very common problem is that everyone, dealer and distributors, are ordering insane amounts of everything in hopes of getting a little. This gives the manufacturers a very skewed view of what is actually on order. Their current projections for delivery are based on those extremely high level of orders. No doubt many of the manufacturers are taking some of this into consideration.

To give you a specific case, at the recent Ellet Brothers show, a single dealer tried to write a $24 mil order for ATK ammo. There is no way that dealer can sell that much, much less pay for it and there is absolutely no way that ATK can meet that order.

We are already starting to see some slow down in the interest. It is still way above the norm but is less than it was 2 weeks ago. If the gun control push continues to have little chance of succeeding nation wide we expect the rush to slow down even more. As that happens dealers and distributors will cancel parts or all of these insanely inflated orders and the backlog will catch up some. Granted it will take a while and some items such as primers, non-mainstream calibers, and such will suffer in the mean time.

Hope this helps put some perspective on what you're seeing and reading.

Charlie

 

[-=boone=-]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

Tossing out the bs flag.

 

[northern50]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

If its true I say GO AMERICA!! Hell this has been one of ohbamas best stimulus packages to date. Best part it's supporting American companies. All will pass and those who didn't keep enough supplies for at least a years worth of shooting will maybe learn for next time...

 

[flounderv2]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

And by everyone spreading this message, you will in fact only make the panic buying worse. The internet allows news; good, bad, real, fake, or speculatory to drive the market and cause drastic fluctuations.

I would highly suggest not spreading this information as there is no positive result that can come from it and you will only add to the the panic buying issues we are currently encountering. just my .02

 

[tnichols]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Northern50</div><div class="ubbcode-body">If its true I say GO AMERICA!! Hell this has been one of ohbamas best stimulus packages to date. Best part it's supporting American companies. All will pass and those who didn't keep enough supplies for at least a years worth of shooting will maybe learn for next time... </div></div>

I agree. This whole gun/ammo/gear thing is kind of like firewood. Should stay a couple of years ahead on it. We don't cutting wood at the first cold snap, because we're out and don't have any.

 

[45.308]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

Charlie has valid points. The supply chain is skewed right now and from what I am being told, about 8-9 months for catch up. I remember in 2008 when we were told by vendors and manufacturers that all ammo was sold through 2012 but that was not fact as the supply chain got caught up the last of 2009. But, prices went up, stabilized and stayed at close to those prices. Before the 2008 election, 1000 round case of 45 Bazer was $89-$95 and now that same ammo is $15-$20 per single box, depending on the stores margin. 22LR bricks around $10 now at $20-$25.

From my vantage point, there is no slow down up to and including yesterday. The phone is in constant ring mode, that the phone has been taken off the hook to focus on in store customers. Customers are in tune with gun and ammo arrivals and have circulated what shop has what when and the line starts sometimes before midnight for 9am opening when the email chain says store x has ARs, 223, etc arriving tomorrow.

 

[pizzamanny]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

I started a thread in the BP on this a few minutes ago. Ammo type will play a huge part in availability. 22LR is hard to find but takes no primers and I would think be the easiest to mass produce the cheapest. The Mil is using less ammo so that will be a big hit in demand different from the last time. I think in 3 months we will see ammo getting more available, not normal but better.

Shotgun shells are a big question for me. There is no real MIl or LE demand and no threat of a ban on the shotguns that use them. Will I be able to get my 3.5 steel shot next year? I think so.

In less than 2 months I think the reality that no new legislation will pass the senate will cause demand to slacken and production of ammo to catch up. Black rifles on the other hand will stay back ordered for a year or more.

 

[SuckitTrebek]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

Umm yep, no surprises there. Not at least for those with a shred of market intelligence

 

[In2b8u]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: tnichols</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Northern50</div><div class="ubbcode-body">If its true I say GO AMERICA!! Hell this has been one of ohbamas best stimulus packages to date. Best part it's supporting American companies. All will pass and those who didn't keep enough supplies for at least a years worth of shooting will maybe learn for next time... </div></div>

I agree. This whole gun/ammo/gear thing is kind of like firewood. Should stay a couple of years ahead on it. We don't cutting wood at the first cold snap, because we're out and don't have any. </div></div>

The American public has purchased 2.5 years of inventory in a little over 2 weeks. That was a quote from one of the larger distributors a week ago. No one could predict the shooting in CN or the resulting furor over the attack on the 2A or the panic buying. Personally I dont see a return to "normal stock" any time soon. This is even way crazier than the 08 election.
I agree with Charlie that there are some inflationary orders, but I do not see a slow down in public demand for a while. I wholly believe the days of cheap .223 are in the rear view mirror.
Personally I think the most frightening comment in the post is the LACK of GUN QUALITY steel. That comment should NEVER be made in America.

 

[ringer706]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: boone</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Tossing out the bs flag. </div></div>

+1

Give it a little time and things will come down, no need to fear monger any more than whats already been done.

 

[deadly0311]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

Who is the "large" distributor that you speak of? I don't believe for a second that 2.5 years worth of inventory has been bought in 2 weeks. Im still able to get what I need in a multimillion dollar store. Granted its not near the level that I was pre craze, but getting stuff isn't hard.

 

[CharlieTN]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Deadly0311</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Who is the "large" distributor that you speak of? I don't believe for a second that 2.5 years worth of inventory has been bought in 2 weeks. Im still able to get what I need in a multimillion dollar store. Granted its not near the level that I was pre craze, but getting stuff isn't hard. </div></div>

You cannot compare the inventory of 1 large gun store in Birmingham to the rest of the dealers out there. The large store gets priority from either direct orders or through distribution. The smaller dealers are struggling to find merchandise.

Ask me how I know? (answer: I'm one of the ones who decides who gets the little bit of product I get in and who goes without this week)

Charlie

 

[Ring]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Deadly0311</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Who is the "large" distributor that you speak of? I don't believe for a second that 2.5 years worth of inventory has been bought in 2 weeks. Im still able to get what I need in a multimillion dollar store. Granted its not near the level that I was pre craze, but getting stuff isn't hard.</div></div>

brownells...

 

[In2b8u]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

OK here is the deal, Last week I was at my friends Little Gun store. There was a gentleman there who was trying to locate a certain pistol. We spent 4 hours on the phone to several distributors (not gun stores) trying to procure one.
Every response from every sales person was the same........
Unprecedented demand, zero availability, No backorder. 2 sales people at Bill Hicks, and MGI both stated that they and other distributors have moved 2-2.5 years of inventory in 14 days, with no let up in sight. Is it True? I couldn't tell you (personally I find the # staggering). I do know that the statement was made and that is currently their battle cry as far as inventory goes.
Are there stores out there with stock on shelves? Absolutely. Could this be a tactic to drive sales? Sure.
But the current theme is NO NEW AVAILABILITY to order or purchase guns or ammo not in stock. Take it for what it's worth, I am only passing along word of mouth that I heard directly from the people that distribute gun inventory.

 

[ironworker21]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

.....having fun watching people with more money then sense buy into the "pre ban" craze.....

"patience Daniel son, patience"

 

[pizzamanny]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

AR's are in demand from people who will never shoot more than 20rds per year. They have disposable income and the want of the items. They cost nothing to own after purchase and they will not be sold at a loss by the majority of these impulse buyers.

 

[ACE31!]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

Link is Bad or the Facebook Police removed the page....Hmmmm?

 

[dtask]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

I keep hearing this bullshit in every shop in town but mine. EVERYONE just got back from an unnamable conference, location shady - which is interesting that people so busy killing it are leaving their shops during prime "go time".

Here it is: everyone is playing gun dealer on the secondary markets. There is no shortage of ANYTHING on eBay, Gunbroker, and the forums. What there is not is a shortage of people who are unwilling to fuck the next guy in the ass (dry style) to get a quick hit in the wallet.

The stories are a made up, bullshit liar's justification to do what would be looked down upon in nearly any other scenario in the shooting industry. I'm an FFL, I see what is going on and I'll call it what it is.

IF the layperson, wannabe gun/ammo/PMag buyer quit buying a bunch of shit they don't need and are only looking to quick-flip for a cash out stopped their shittyness for 3 weeks, the supply & demand would stabilize and people wouldn't continue getting gouged.

We, the gun owning population, are gouging ourselves and walking into revised-upwards factory pricing when this is all said and done. To say this is impulse buyer initiated is wrong - these are the guys who HAVE bullets, Have mags, HAVE AR15's, and HAVE the 25- 30 round rimfire magazines that you're looking in vane for...these are the guys who were spectators last go 'round who decided to jump into the game and fuck it up this time' round without shame nor remorse.

Can you really blame or even believe them? Fear is always a weakness and always a bitch to everyone.

 

[tylerw02]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

There may be people hording, and some reselling, but obviously there is a shortage. People are scared. Do you believe there are not politicians doing everything they can do to get a ban passed? Do you not believe the administration doesn't want to make it as hard on gun owners as humanly possible? I understand, its frustrating. I'm a regular shooter and usually restock my powder when I get down to about two pounds and can't find half of the stuff I normally want and I'm starting to run out. Yeah, it sucks. There are rumors of people buying powder when they don't even load. But I do understand the fear, and I don't blame anybody for being scared. A swoop of the pen could make things very tough on us.

I've also heard the "conference in Texas". There is a guy locally that says he went. He was gone for three days from the shop he manages. I don't know if he's full of it or he actually went somewhere, but he said they would have Glock and Sig back in stock sometime in Feb or March. He said Smith & Wesson is way behind and so is Colt. He said they ordered $200,000 worth of Glock and an equal amount of Smith & Wesson. He also said they ordered $65,000 in Sig and his strategy was he hoped to get as much of whatever is produced first as possible; assuming they don't make all of every model at once.

 

[CharlieTN]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

The "conference in Texas" was likely the Accusport show. They're one of the many distributors who have their annual shows in January. It's a very big deal but only a certain number of dealers is invited to attend and order. These dealers will order close to their estimated yearly inventory at these shows. However this year many of the dealers are ordering quite a bit more in hopes of getting what they need.

Think of it this way:
There are those of us who shoot quite a bit and as such we buy ammo and components regularly. Now this is a somewhat founded fear that that ability may be taken away or the necessary items may become too expensive through lack of supply or taxes and legislation. So, we who shoot a good bit continue to look for what we need. At the same time, Bubba who shoots a bit goes looking for some ammo. He's heard that there may be some taxes or legislation making it harder to get his couple of boxes of .45 ACP. After calling several dealers and stopping by his local store he finally finds a few boxes of ball ammo. Instead of buying the 1 or 2 boxes he actually wanted, Bubba will buy several boxes so he can make sure he has some ammo. Maginify this by thousands of "Bubba's" and Average Joe's and guess what, you have a huge ammo shortage with the manufacturers backlogged for months on the orders they have coming in.

Remember the inflated orders placed by the dealers, and I can tell you that quite a vast majority of them are doing this, and the manufacturers really have no idea how far backlogged they are.

Charlie

 

[redhooker]

Re: WV gunshop facebook page

I have a different situation around me here in FL. I have local dealers with plenty of ARs, Pmags, and parts. Ammo as well. Hell in one small shop nearby there are dozens of Pmags in all gens, 20 and 30 rounders sitting on the shelf. The only ammo I cannot locate easily right now is 9mm.

What's the catch you say? Well, expect to pay close to 2 grand for an entry-level AR15. Several shops have dozens in stock. AK47s start out at $950, I was at one shop that had 20 AKs on the wall. Those Pmags? They are $50 each. 22lr? Try $60 for a 325rd box. This is all at shops that were "out" of stuff 3 weeks ago. Tapco AK mags are $35. They are trying to sell Glocks at more than 1 local shop with only 1 magazine. Luckily a couple places are honest enough to still include the 3 mags that Glock shipped them with. We have a manufacturer here local that produces AR parts, and is selling lowers direct to the public for about $130. The same lowers are 1 mile down the road for $399.

I will say this, the recent pricing has certainly slowed shit down a bit. There seems to be plenty out there, but I am sure if it was priced more reasonably it would all be gone. While I am glad more "bubbas" are getting into AR ownership (the more of us the merrier), I can't wait for those credit card bills to start piling up so I can get some good deals again