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Hurricane Irma

#52
1J04 said:
ap_f_maltais_1.jpg
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You don't disappoint. Still full of shit though.
 
#53
These things can do wierd stuff and can surprise you. I remember when Camile came through Virginia...Dropped 25 inches of rain in Nelson Co in 5 hours. Washed away whole families. 123 dead, many never found. My uncle was a state PoPo and was in on the search and rescue. told me a story of finding just a hand sticking out of the mud...had to dig the body out.
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#54
Redmanss said:
Andrew was sick damage and I couldn't agree with you more. I was in boot camp when it hit, but went over to Homestead about two months after to take my step-dad back who was activated (FL NG) for about six months as a result, he at least got the weekend off to see me graduate since he was prior Marine as well as his whole command. Entire subdivisions leveled, lines of debris 15'-20' tall for miles along the roadway. Miami-Dade building code did a lot to prevent that afterwards, but still goes only so far if the winds reach >130mph.

I was really close to Charley too, about 30mi from eye wall, and took about $20k damage to my home and was ill prepared for it as I didn't have shutters or anything then, couldn't afford them as I unexpectedly had another mouth to feed leading up to it hitting. It took a hard right about three hours before landfall and went from CAT 2 to a 4, I was absolutely caught off guard. I was bracing my picture window with a 2x4 in the middle of the storm with my one month old daughter in the closet with her mother, really stupid there. Up in Punta Gorda at I-75 the trees didn't even have bark for about 10mi stretch, and that was a CAT 4 about 20mi inland. Those thinking of riding it out, let that one simmer for a minute and tell me if you think it's wise to do so...

Best bet is board up, pack up the real important shit and burn vacation days, visit friends or family up north/out west for a few days, let insurance handle the rest.
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dont knock yourself on that storm, like you sad, made a hard right, at the last min, you guys got fucked
 
#61
Was just thinking about the "If" of evacuating north.
The only realistic evacuation option I have is to go north on I-75.
I've seen what day to day traffic is like just north of I-4 (about 8 miles north of here as the crow flies) and it's standstill for a couple of hours.
I can't begin to fathom a million people lining that road and causing accidents and break downs. At the slow crawl that's to be expected, running out of fuel would be a real hazard, and it would only add to the cluster.
I'm thinking going north is either now or never.
The wife works for the Sheriffs office and I'll bet a buck or two we'll be staying.

Time to get out the REO Speedwagon and play "Ridin' the storm out".
 
#67
Mike Casselton said:
I really do miss the old cone projections.
They were no less accurate than the spaghetti bullshit. People just couldn't latch on to a specific BS track like they can now.
Slap a 30 degree cone over the current model and you get the same thing without all the pretty colors.
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The NHC still does that, not a whole lot has changed on their products in the last 15 years.

205803_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
#68
I didn't realize it when I started the thread, but a couple of these images update themselves from the source. I have edited the original post accordingly, so the fresh images will always be at the top the page.

There are tons of sources out there, but I'll add some resource links I like to the original post as well.
Hit the Home key anytime to get there.
 
#69
Mike Casselton said:
Was just thinking about the "If" of evacuating north.
The only realistic evacuation option I have is to go north on I-75.
I've seen what day to day traffic is like just north of I-4 (about 8 miles north of here as the crow flies) and it's standstill for a couple of hours.
I can't begin to fathom a million people lining that road and causing accidents and break downs. At the slow crawl that's to be expected, running out of fuel would be a real hazard, and it would only add to the cluster.
I'm thinking going north is either now or never.
The wife works for the Sheriffs office and I'll bet a buck or two we'll be staying.

Time to get out the REO Speedwagon and play "Ridin' the storm out".
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Don't do I-75 do 301 north to 98/50 then on to 19/98 (Where 27 comes in it should thin out) an book north into either Ga, or Bama, don't wait to long though. (Use to live in Dade City an worked the whole state from there)

 
#72
Gunfighter14e2 said:
Don't do I-75 do 301 north to 98/50 then on to 19/98 (Where 27 comes in it should thin out) an book north into either Ga, or Bama, don't wait to long though. (Use to live in Dade City an worked the whole state from there)
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You're right. I just had this conversation with my parents and forgot the state/US routes. Four lane non-interstate roads are the way to go. If you get caught in a gridlock on 75 halfway between Weston and Naples you are dead. Fucking DEAD.

I need to call them again. They are in Homestead and I'm not going to lie, I'm scared shitless for them. This is the first time in my life (51 years) that I have been afraid.
 
#73
Homestead is looking better and better (but still not clear, northerly turn timing dependent), Keys and Gulf Coast not so much. Marco Island to Panama City needs to be seriously on their toes and glued to NHC. Luckily there's still a good bit of time, Sunday-Monday on for shit storm.


Edit: Spoke too soon, stand by Atlantic coast still... The storms still do whatever they want regardless of what the models say.
 
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#74
It's interesting watching the feed from weather bouys.

Edge of eye wall. Call that wind, even the mythical 6mm BMG ain't cheating that one...

fec3df0c443d4dbb18f78ac1a4bb207b.png


Inside eye wall. Check that pressure!

1e50a923701d377094f65f0e13aa3685.png


d148de2420665108ac286dfe18d26463.png




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
#75
Redmanss said:
Homestead is looking better and better (but still not clear, northerly turn timing dependent), Keys and Gulf Coast not so much. Marco Island to Panama City needs to be seriously on their toes and glued to NHC. Luckily there's still a good bit of time, Sunday-Monday on for shit storm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Don't know what data you're seeing but everything I can find puts Dade County at ground zero late Saturday into Sunday AM.

My sister and BIL are back in SFL on the ground after cutting a vacation short and are planning to unass the area ASAP within 24 hrs. I told her to stuff our parents in the car whether they want to or not, or I'll drive all day and all night to do so myself.
 
#76
I normally go to work at 5:30 am there were already gas lines that is where ever they still had gas. Gas can utopia Gensets need to be fed. I am glad I have a nat gas genset, finding gas is always the worst. 5 days out and you would think the world is ending. I guess its better than last minute Louie. Folks are learning. Cash after a storm is the almost the most important thing the first few days. I always make sure it is available for these things. Banks and stores without power can't do much with cards.

We will spend the next few days helping employees in need board up. After storm we will make sure all our people are good before starting business again.
 
#78

This is I-75 as of about 8:20 this morning.
Normally it's clear of commuting traffic at this time.
301 and 41 probably look just as bad, but I didn't pay any attention to them.
Keys are under mandatory evacuation.
The roads will only get worse.
I'll go over this afternoon to check on an elderly neighbor.
Gonna check with my mom and sister tomorrow
 

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#79
308pirate said:
You're right. I just had this conversation with my parents and forgot the state/US routes. Four lane non-interstate roads are the way to go.
.
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This is where a 4x4 is worth its weight in gold. Many times in my working life (all r svc trucks were 4x4)traffic was stopped an word was would be for hrs. I'd glance at the GPS program on my computer, or drag out a paper map if need be,... grab a lever cross over the divider or go back down the side of the road, to the next turn an be back on my way. When traveling with the herd shit can go south real quick, always have plan b-z ready at any time.
 
#80
The more I look at this bitch the less I'm believing the computers. I can easily see this thing getting into the Gulf and regaining strength. I guess I'll be out this morning gathering up a few things. I needed to lay in some extra chips and beer for Mike Casselton and oneshot86 anyway. Whether they evacuate here, or I end up down there helping afterward, I've got a feeling we may be seeing each other soon.
 
#81
Gunfighter14e2 said:
Don't do I-75 do 301 north to 98/50 then on to 19/98 (Where 27 comes in it should thin out) an book north into either Ga, or Bama, don't wait to long though. (Use to live in Dade City an worked the whole state from there)
Click to expand...

I'm about 2 miles from 39 at Lithia. My best bet would be 39 straight up to 301 based on current traffic conditions.
Gas and diesel are zero balance everywhere around here
 
#82
Gunfighter14e2 said:
This is where a 4x4 is worth its weight in gold. Many times in my working life (all r svc trucks were 4x4)traffic was stopped an word was would be for hrs. I'd glance at the GPS program on my computer, or drag out a paper map if need be,... grab a lever cross over the divider or go back down the side of the road, to the next turn an be back on my way. When traveling with the herd shit can go south real quick, always have plan b-z ready at any time.
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I always carry a paper map///usually a full atlas. If the GPS goes out I like to know where the fuck I am.

As if Irma isnt enough theres another ugly one stacked up about 5 days behind her.
 
#84
Not having TV, I have to keep up on news via internet, so pardon my slow uptake on this one, but Puerto Rico is screwed. When I was there I asked a lot of folks how they fared in hurricanes and the universal answer was that strong storms don't hit PR because of where it sits in relation to typical hurricane behavior (intensity and tracks in that part of the carribean). I guess that just changed.
 
#85
Maggot said:
I always carry a paper map///usually a full atlas. If the GPS goes out I like to know where the fuck I am.

As if Irma isnt enough theres another ugly one stacked up about 5 days behind her.
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My GPS (DeLoren) is a little different as it has every street/cow path in the US (an other places) loaded on the computer an only uses sats to mark were I am at. I can turn off the sats an still see every map, But even at that I always carry paper maps to street level with me where ever I go. I like options.
 
#86
I keep a Rand McNally road map in my truck. It's not detailed for smaller cities, but works great for getting around on larger roads. I probably need to update it.
 
#87
Some free cabins in NC.

ATTENTION FLORIDIANS and any other folks in Irma's path. Camp Kerr Lake in Henderson, NC has 6 small cabins that will sleep 8, two lodges that sleep 20, one small cabin that sleep 4 and our home that can sleep 4-6 more. If you or your families or friends are in need of refuge, we can house that many for FREE! We do not have a dining hall and you would need to pack twin bed linens or sleeping bags, towels, toiletries etc. We are about 11 hours north of West Palm Beach, FL. Please call the camp office at 252-436-2255 for more information and to reserve a place as space is limited.We at Shiloh Family Ministries and Camp Kerr Lake are praying for anyone in Irma's path.
 
#88
Tucker301 said:
Some free cabins in NC.

ATTENTION FLORIDIANS and any other folks in Irma's path. Camp Kerr Lake in Henderson, NC has 6 small cabins that will sleep 8, two lodges that sleep 20, one small cabin that sleep 4 and our home that can sleep 4-6 more. If you or your families or friends are in need of refuge, we can house that many for FREE! We do not have a dining hall and you would need to pack twin bed linens or sleeping bags, towels, toiletries etc. We are about 11 hours north of West Palm Beach, FL. Please call the camp office at 252-436-2255 for more information and to reserve a place as space is limited.We at Shiloh Family Ministries and Camp Kerr Lake are praying for anyone in Irma's path.
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THAT is some good stuff.
 
#89
bogeybrown said:
Not having TV, I have to keep up on news via internet, so pardon my slow uptake on this one, but Puerto Rico is screwed. When I was there I asked a lot of folks how they fared in hurricanes and the universal answer was that strong storms don't hit PR because of where it sits in relation to typical hurricane behavior (intensity and tracks in that part of the carribean). I guess that just changed.
Click to expand...

Puerto Rico's above ground infrastructure will take a big hit and there will be flooding here and there, but virtually all home construction (except the poorest of the poor) is 100% reinforced concrete/cinder block with poured/rebar reinforced roofs. The three houses I grew up in between 1966 and 1984 were that way and so were virtually every single one I remember. That type of construction will absolutely withstand a direct hit up to a EF4 tornado with little to no damage, and will take an EF5 with exterior damage but remain sound enough to protect the lives inside.

I would be a fuckload more at ease if my parents were sitting in their old concrete home in PR rather than in a fucking 2x4 frame house in SFLA. Miami-Dade building codes still don't mean shit when your home gets hit by a wall of wind at 140 mph+
 
#90
308pirate said:
Puerto Rico's above ground infrastructure will take a big hit and there will be flooding here and there, but virtually all home construction (except the poorest of the poor) is 100% reinforced concrete/cinder block with poured/rebar reinforced roofs. The three houses I grew up in between 1966 and 1984 were that way and so were virtually every single one I remember. That type of construction will absolutely withstand a direct hit up to a EF4 tornado with little to no damage, and will take an EF5 with exterior damage but remain sound enough to protect the lives inside.

I would be a fuckload more at ease if my parents were sitting in their old concrete home in PR rather than in a fucking 2x4 frame house in SFLA. Miami-Dade building codes still don't mean shit when your home gets hit by a wall of wind at 140 mph+
Click to expand...

Really? I had you figured for pure bohío. :p
 
#91
The homes are mostly strong in the cities there, it's the little stuff in the rest of the island that isn't. That and the hit to infrastructure that takes several months to regain basic power and water or rebuild washed out mountain roads, really is their vulnerabilities to these storms.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
#92
308pirate said:
Puerto Rico's above ground infrastructure will take a big hit and there will be flooding here and there, but virtually all home construction (except the poorest of the poor) is 100% reinforced concrete/cinder block with poured/rebar reinforced roofs. The three houses I grew up in between 1966 and 1984 were that way and so were virtually every single one I remember. That type of construction will absolutely withstand a direct hit up to a EF4 tornado with little to no damage, and will take an EF5 with exterior damage but remain sound enough to protect the lives inside.

I would be a fuckload more at ease if my parents were sitting in their old concrete home in PR rather than in a fucking 2x4 frame house in SFLA. Miami-Dade building codes still don't mean shit when your home gets hit by a wall of wind at 140 mph+
Click to expand...

I noticed the same thing and was really impressed that even houses in very poor areas were reinforced concrete. I think that was what got me curious about hurricanes when I was there. I was thinking along the lines of so many of the roads and major population centers being along the coast, coupled with a general level of poverty and having a history of not having to really worry about a major storm.
I fell in love with PR and its people when I was there, and still periodically look at property listings. This storm is going to be a bitch for a LOT of folks across several countries. I've been through Andrew, Ivan, Katrina, and lord knows how many I barely paid attention to, and I'm on my way out to buy a generator for the first time in my life. I really think this pig is gonna end up in the Gulf.
 
#95
308pirate said:
Don't know what data you're seeing but everything I can find puts Dade County at ground zero late Saturday into Sunday AM.

My sister and BIL are back in SFL on the ground after cutting a vacation short and are planning to unass the area ASAP within 24 hrs. I told her to stuff our parents in the car whether they want to or not, or I'll drive all day and all night to do so myself.
Click to expand...

Yep, I called that one too early, my apologies. All the NHC products last night showed a pretty solid track into the Gulf, not so much now. That northern turn's prediction is really wavering, looks like it's back into Atlantic side getting pummeled again but the whole damn southern part of the state is screwed. Best wishes to your family staying safe.
 
#96
Redmanss said:
Yep, I called that one too early, my apologies. All the NHC products last night showed a pretty solid track into the Gulf, not so much now. That northern turn's prediction is really wavering, looks like it's back into Atlantic side getting pummeled again but the whole damn southern part of the state is screwed. Best wishes to your family staying safe.
Click to expand...

I was seeing the same thing. That predicted path lasted just long enough for every single store along the Gulf Coast to sell out of generators. Ah well, I didn't need to spend that money on silly shit like unspoiled food and circulating air anyway. I think I have about 10 cases of 15yr old MREs laying around. They shouldn't be edible at this point, but the Marines always had the magical ability to "extend" the use-by dates.
 
#98
Redmanss said:
Yep, I called that one too early, my apologies. All the NHC products last night showed a pretty solid track into the Gulf, not so much now. That northern turn's prediction is really wavering, looks like it's back into Atlantic side getting pummeled again but the whole damn southern part of the state is screwed. Best wishes to your family staying safe.
Click to expand...

Thanks. Got a sitrep from my sis half hour ago. Still in CA changing planes on their way from HI to FL. Will be wheels down in FT L late tonight/midnight.

Parents are at sis's house with nephew #2, cars gassed up, bags packed after dad secured the Homestead house.
 
#99
bogeybrown said:
I was seeing the same thing. That predicted path lasted just long enough for every single store along the Gulf Coast to sell out of generators. Ah well, I didn't need to spend that money on silly shit like unspoiled food and circulating air anyway. I think I have about 10 cases of 15yr old MREs laying around. They shouldn't be edible at this point, but the Marines always had the magical ability to "extend" the use-by dates.
Click to expand...

Listening to Rush yesterday. He said they'll include as many people potentially getting the storm as possible at some point for two reasons; 1) Look at the big scary storm = global warming and 2) Go buy stuff. I was tempted to watch the local(ish) news last night to see if storm news was followed by Home Depot and Publix commercials, but decided I didn't want to hear what was going on in Atlanta.
 
#100
Tucker301 said:
Some free cabins in NC.

ATTENTION FLORIDIANS and any other folks in Irma's path. Camp Kerr Lake in Henderson, NC has 6 small cabins that will sleep 8, two lodges that sleep 20, one small cabin that sleep 4 and our home that can sleep 4-6 more. If you or your families or friends are in need of refuge, we can house that many for FREE! We do not have a dining hall and you would need to pack twin bed linens or sleeping bags, towels, toiletries etc. We are about 11 hours north of West Palm Beach, FL. Please call the camp office at 252-436-2255 for more information and to reserve a place as space is limited.We at Shiloh Family Ministries and Camp Kerr Lake are praying for anyone in Irma's path.
Click to expand...

Thats not just 'good stuff'' but how the 'body of Christ' is supposed to operate. If it were healthy, and doing what it should there would be no need for gub'mint welfare. Like in Houston, with people coming in with boats, thats how we are supposed to act.

If this violates the religion clause Ill remove it.
 
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