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#3,701
Wallstreet Breakfast:
Wild swings continue to envelop the bond market, with two notable names in the industry making fresh calls on the sector. The pairs' statements also continue to come hours apart from each other, as they did on Aug. 3, when they both became growling bond bears and added to the pressure on long-term Treasuries. Since then, the yield on the 10-year Treasury (US10Y) jumped nearly an entire percentage point, climbing from 4.07% to top 5% yesterday, while the 30-year Treasury (US30Y) went from 4.16% to a high of 5.15% in just under two months.

Old tweets

Bill Ackman: "If long-term inflation is 3% instead of 2% and history holds, then we could see the 30-year T yield = 3% + 0.5% (the real rate) + 2% (term premium) or 5.5%, and it can happen soon. There are many times in history where the bond market reprices the long end of the curve in a matter of weeks, and this seems like one of those times."

Bill Gross: "10 yr yields? Overall bearish"

New outlook

Bill Ackman: "We covered our bond short. There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates. The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests."

Bill Gross: "Regional bank carnage and recent rise in auto delinquencies to long-term historical highs indicate U.S. economy slowing significantly. Recession in 4th quarter. On bonds. Invest in the curve. Various combinations 2/10, 2/5. Should go positive before year end. I’m buying SFR h5 (SOFR futures). 'Higher for longer' is yesterday's mantra."

Remember, the last time rates were this high was pre-2008, and it seems like the Bills now feel that the rout in Treasuries seen in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic has gone too far. Markets appeared to have adopted that view on Monday, with the yield on the US10Y sinking 20 bps to a low of 4.80%, but it is too soon to tell if that sentiment will hold. Term premium is the word on Wall Street, as well as regular investors that are looking at related bond ETFs, but there are many factors at play that can have impacts on benchmark yields. Among them are forecasts and actual economic data, debt sustainability, and geopolitical developments, with eyes tightly kept on the Federal Reserve and words from the officials on financial conditions.
 
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#3,702
GM withdraws 2023 guidance as UAW strike costs soar

General Motors (GM.N) on Tuesday withdrew its 2023 profit outlook, blaming the rising costs of United Auto Workers strikes, and Chief Executive Mary Barra said the automaker will slow its electric vehicle strategy to put profits ahead of sales targets.

GM's third-quarter net income fell 7.3% to $3.06 billion, while revenue rose 5.4% to $44.1 billion. The adjusted earnings per share tracked by analysts were $2.28, ahead of Wall Street expectations and up from $2.25 a year ago because of the effect of share buybacks.

The UAW walkouts cost the company $200 million during the third quarter and $600 million so far in the fourth quarter, GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said in a briefing with reporters.

Strike costs are running at $200 million a week, Jacobson said. He would not discuss the potential impact should UAW President Shawn Fain order new walkouts at GM's most profitable North American factories such as the Arlington, Texas, plant that builds Cadillac Escalades and Chevrolet Suburbans, or the Flint, Michigan, heavy-duty pickup assembly plant.

Barra said the automaker's is also slowing the launch of several EV models to cut their costs, and pulling back on EV product spending. GM is abandoning a goal of building 400,000 EVs from 2022 through mid-2024, Jacobson said. "We're just not going to be talking about the interim production goals," Jacobson said. 😂
 
#3,703
S3th said:
GM withdraws 2023 guidance as UAW strike costs soar

General Motors (GM.N) on Tuesday withdrew its 2023 profit outlook, blaming the rising costs of United Auto Workers strikes, and Chief Executive Mary Barra said the automaker will slow its electric vehicle strategy to put profits ahead of sales targets.

GM's third-quarter net income fell 7.3% to $3.06 billion, while revenue rose 5.4% to $44.1 billion. The adjusted earnings per share tracked by analysts were $2.28, ahead of Wall Street expectations and up from $2.25 a year ago because of the effect of share buybacks.

The UAW walkouts cost the company $200 million during the third quarter and $600 million so far in the fourth quarter, GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said in a briefing with reporters.

Strike costs are running at $200 million a week, Jacobson said. He would not discuss the potential impact should UAW President Shawn Fain order new walkouts at GM's most profitable North American factories such as the Arlington, Texas, plant that builds Cadillac Escalades and Chevrolet Suburbans, or the Flint, Michigan, heavy-duty pickup assembly plant.

Barra said the automaker's is also slowing the launch of several EV models to cut their costs, and pulling back on EV product spending. GM is abandoning a goal of building 400,000 EVs from 2022 through mid-2024, Jacobson said. "We're just not going to be talking about the interim production goals," Jacobson said. 😂
Click to expand...
Automakers need to move to "right to work" states and leave the Rust Belt - certainly not invest anymore in the Rust Belt. Shutter all their car plants for rest of 2023.
 
#3,704
Lightning8 said:
Wallstreet Breakfast:
Wild swings continue to envelop the bond market, with two notable names in the industry making fresh calls on the sector. The pairs' statements also continue to come hours apart from each other, as they did on Aug. 3, when they both became growling bond bears and added to the pressure on long-term Treasuries. Since then, the yield on the 10-year Treasury (US10Y) jumped nearly an entire percentage point, climbing from 4.07% to top 5% yesterday, while the 30-year Treasury (US30Y) went from 4.16% to a high of 5.15% in just under two months.

Old tweets

Bill Ackman: "If long-term inflation is 3% instead of 2% and history holds, then we could see the 30-year T yield = 3% + 0.5% (the real rate) + 2% (term premium) or 5.5%, and it can happen soon. There are many times in history where the bond market reprices the long end of the curve in a matter of weeks, and this seems like one of those times."

Bill Gross: "10 yr yields? Overall bearish"

New outlook

Bill Ackman: "We covered our bond short. There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates. The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests."

Bill Gross: "Regional bank carnage and recent rise in auto delinquencies to long-term historical highs indicate U.S. economy slowing significantly. Recession in 4th quarter. On bonds. Invest in the curve. Various combinations 2/10, 2/5. Should go positive before year end. I’m buying SFR h5 (SOFR futures). 'Higher for longer' is yesterday's mantra."

Remember, the last time rates were this high was pre-2008, and it seems like the Bills now feel that the rout in Treasuries seen in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic has gone too far. Markets appeared to have adopted that view on Monday, with the yield on the US10Y sinking 20 bps to a low of 4.80%, but it is too soon to tell if that sentiment will hold. Term premium is the word on Wall Street, as well as regular investors that are looking at related bond ETFs, but there are many factors at play that can have impacts on benchmark yields. Among them are forecasts and actual economic data, debt sustainability, and geopolitical developments, with eyes tightly kept on the Federal Reserve and words from the officials on financial conditions.
Click to expand...
Many American's are in denial of the "changing tide". Wall Street, Big Banks and a host of businesses in the "credit business" (debt) are well aware of this and are setting many bear traps along the path. This was done in the previous 3 - 4 recessions. Deja Vu

1698158450945.png
 
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#3,705
Lightning8 said:
Automakers need to move to "right to work" states and leave the Rust Belt - certainly not invest anymore in the Rust Belt. Shutter all their car plants for rest of 2023.
Click to expand...
Auto's should be built in developing countries with natural resources to support that industry.
Abandoning the rust belt will leave another region that must be supported by productive regions. FED's will increase taxes on RTW states and roll those funds to pay to support the Rust Belt (food stamps, free medical, save the children, etc).
This is a challenge to the future leaders of America. A well educated person with a good work ethic should be put on the endangered species list.
The digging on this hole started long ago. The digging is continuing today. Until the digging stops, things will continue to get worse.
JMHO
 
#3,706
Jamie is correct.... A warning to the wise.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday warned about the dangers of locking in an outlook about the economy, particularly considering the poor recent track record of central banks like the Federal Reserve.
In the latest of multiple warnings about what lies ahead from the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets, he cautioned that myriad factors playing out now make things even more difficult.
“Prepare for possibilities and probabilities, not calling one course of action, since I’ve never seen anyone call it,” Dimon said during a panel discussion at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
“I want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong,” he added. “I would be quite cautious about what might happen next year.”

www.cnbc.com

Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts

"Prepare for possibilities and probabilities, not calling one course of action, since I've never seen anyone call it," Dimon said in Saudi Arabia.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
#3,708
#3,710
Toyota Exec: "EVs currently don’t make sense in countries like Australia, where the majority of electricity continues to come from coal-fired power stations," said Sean Hanley, Toyota Australia VP of sales.

He continued saying: “Right now, hybrid-electric vehicles are a better fit than BEVs for most consumers; They are more affordable and don’t require charging infrastructure. They’re cars for the masses, not for the few. he told Australian journalists."

The Model Y is the best selling overall car or SUV in Australia. 🤣
 
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#3,711
S3th said:
Toyota Exec: "EVs currently don’t make sense in countries like Australia, where the majority of electricity continues to come from coal-fired power stations," said Sean Hanley, Toyota Australia VP of sales.

He continued saying: “Right now, hybrid-electric vehicles are a better fit than BEVs for most consumers; They are more affordable and don’t require charging infrastructure. They’re cars for the masses, not for the few. he told Australian journalists."

The Model Y is the best selling overall car or SUV in Australia. 🤣
Click to expand...
I had a unique job where I traveled to Europe, Australia, and Central America looking at their heavy industries. We (large US heavy industry company) were looking for Innovation ideas. We immediately learned that Europe, Australia, and Central America made "business" decisions based on their national, state, and local regulations/laws. These "business decisions" defied all normal business common sense but were the "right thing to do" based on government regulations and subsidies. Example - Europe pushed diesel as the automotive fuel of choice for decades then suddenly woke up to the particulate issues. Plants in Brazil forced to hire "x" number of employees even though the plants were highly automated. You may have noticed during COVID that Australia government is crazier than ours.
 
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#3,712
S3th said:
The Model Y is the best selling overall car or SUV in Australia. 🤣
Click to expand...

cleantechnica.com

Tesla #1 And #2 Even As EV Dip Deepens In Australia - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! August sales data shows ... [continued]
cleantechnica.com cleantechnica.com

Out of the top 10 best-selling cars of all fuel types in August, five are utes.

Toyota Hilux (5,762)
Ford Ranger (5,760)
Toyota RAV4 (3,317)
Isuzu D-Max (3,281)
MG ZS (3,193 — this figure includes some EVs)
Toyota Landcruiser (2,743)
Toyota Corolla (2,717)
Tesla Model Y (2,314)
Hyundai Tucson (2,084)
Mitsubishi Outlander (2,030)
Of particular note is that the Tesla Model Y dropped from second to seventh and was even outsold by the Toyota Corolla — hang your head, Tesla!
Click to expand...

Individual model sales aside, total EV market penetration is around 8% so far this year - an interesting amount, but not something that fundamentally undermines the hypothesis that EVs may not be a great fit for the Australian market.
 
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#3,713
E. Bryant said:
cleantechnica.com

Tesla #1 And #2 Even As EV Dip Deepens In Australia - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! August sales data shows ... [continued]
cleantechnica.com cleantechnica.com



Individual model sales aside, total EV market penetration is around 8% so far this year - an interesting amount, but not something that fundamentally undermines the hypothesis that EVs may not be a great fit for the Australian market.
Click to expand...
Can you help me understand why coal-fired power plants do not support further EV demand? Or is it something else?
 
#3,715
S3th said:
Can you help me understand why coal-fired power plants do not support further EV demand? Or is it something else?
Click to expand...
Australia has serious electrical supply issues. Hard to support increased EVs and resulting electrical demand when they struggle to meet daily electrical supplies. Some of the issues are "green" demands and others are supply chain issues. There is a reason Mad Max was set in Australia.
 
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#3,716
Lightning8 said:
Australia has serious electrical supply issues. Hard to support increased EVs and resulting electrical demand when they struggle to meet daily electrical supplies. Some of the issues are "green" demands and others are supply chain issues. There is a reason Mad Max was set in Australia.
Click to expand...
Maybe they should throw more coal in the furnace. :sneaky:
 
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#3,724
Hobo Hilton said:
Open for comments.
Today a Speaker of the House was elected. There was hardly a bobble in the markets.
Why ? What does the DC crowd know ? When congress gets back to work is the down trend going to continue ?


SPX for the past 2 months
View attachment 8257231
Click to expand...
Market knows that the elected officials are meaningless - the "establishment" runs the country and world
 
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#3,726
Mercedes-Benz shares fall over 6% as profit falls; CFO bemoans ‘brutal’ EV pricing

Key Points
  • Mercedes-Benz shares fell Thursday as it reported lower profit and revenue and highlighted pricing challenges in the electric vehicle space.
  • Chief Financial Officer Harald Wilhelm described the EV market as “pretty brutal space,” Reuters reported.
  • It comes as some traditional automakers sell EVs for less than regular combustion-engine cars — despite higher production costs.
And this is why Tesla should continue to reduce ASP to maintain 100% capacity growth. The OEMs will benefit further down the road as advancements and EV market share help pave the way for them. However, this also allows Tesla to make significant strides within the supply chain, data, brand, etc.

Ford's earnings will be out after the bell. Interested to see if they feel the pain GM and MB are reporting.
 
#3,727
S3th said:
Mercedes-Benz shares fall over 6% as profit falls; CFO bemoans ‘brutal’ EV pricing

Key Points
  • Mercedes-Benz shares fell Thursday as it reported lower profit and revenue and highlighted pricing challenges in the electric vehicle space.
  • Chief Financial Officer Harald Wilhelm described the EV market as “pretty brutal space,” Reuters reported.
  • It comes as some traditional automakers sell EVs for less than regular combustion-engine cars — despite higher production costs.
And this is why Tesla should continue to reduce ASP to maintain 100% capacity growth. The OEMs will benefit further down the road as advancements and EV market share help pave the way for them. However, this also allows Tesla to make significant strides within the supply chain, data, brand, etc.

Ford's earnings will be out after the bell. Interested to see if they feel the pain GM and MB are reporting.
Click to expand...
The tide is changing. Getting from Point A to point B will become a necessity, not a fashion statement.
A good chance that in 2024 the best selling model will be "The Beater".
1698334992549.png

1698335136425.png
 
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#3,730
S3th said:
Ford's earnings will be out after the bell. Interested to see if they feel the pain GM and MB are reporting.
Click to expand...

Ford's got so many clusterfucks ongoing that the scheduled time for the earnings call will likely be insufficient.

GM is currently making over $1 billion/month building ICE pickups and SUVs, despite the fact that their dealers take a 50% cut of the profits and there isn't a $10k stack of taxpayer money on the hood. The pain they're feeling in the short term is largely artificial. Longer-term, I do suspect there will be substantial downward pressure on pricing unless the permabulls are successful at getting 0% rates indefinitely.
 
#3,731
S3th said:
Enphase - Q3

digesting - revenues down as expected with negative Q4 outlook

I have purchases queued for market open
Click to expand...
Patience Grasshopper.
Watched a young deer hunter in a tree stand. Wanting to make his first kill shortly after day light. A nice little spike buck poked his head around a tree and the hunter dropped it. To his surprise a trophy 8 point buck nosed out and nudged the spike buck, then turned around and disappeared into the fog.
 
#3,732
I am sure the price will likely go down further. But I am beyond happy to get in at the current level.

They are actively repurchasing 8% of the current market cap, the balance sheet remains strong, and will likely maintain FCF in Q4 or be damn near it. You take their revised earnings and annualize it, that's $1.4B in revenue. The stock is trading at 8x revenue in a difficult macro with the goal of retaining a high 40% margin vs. flooding the market to capture a smaller share of profit.
 
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#3,734
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#3,735
Lightning8 said:
I cannot imagine buying new vehicles with the UAW wage increases and other inflationary costs factored in.
Click to expand...

Labor at the OE assembly plant is not a substantial portion of the COGS on a $75,000 pickup, especially with the amount of assembly labor that's been pushed down to non-unionized suppliers over the past few decades.
 
#3,736
Lightning8 said:
I cannot imagine buying new vehicles with the UAW wage increases and other inflationary costs factored in.
Click to expand...
Some articles out this morning continue to say "the economy is growing".
The economy is actually shrinking.
The only thing growing is "Inflation".
Notice in small lettering on the bottom of the charts and a few articles it states "Not allowing for inflation".
Year to year inflation in my household is running between 15% and 20%.
Government wants to focus on a can of beans going up 5% or 10 cents.
No reports of property taxes and home owners insurance going up 18% or about $1,000 more for this year in my household.
Smoke and mirrors..
 
#3,738
S3th said:
I am sure the price will likely go down further. But I am beyond happy to get in at the current level.

They are actively repurchasing 8% of the current market cap, the balance sheet remains strong, and will likely maintain FCF in Q4 or be damn near it. You take their revised earnings and annualize it, that's $1.4B in revenue. The stock is trading at 8x revenue in a difficult macro with the goal of retaining a high 40% margin vs. flooding the market to capture a smaller share of profit.
Click to expand...
OK - speculated a little on some ENPH. I focus on dividend paying stocks but I bottom feed occasionally.
 
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#3,743
Hobo Hilton said:
Many American's are in denial of the "changing tide". Wall Street, Big Banks and a host of businesses in the "credit business" (debt) are well aware of this and are setting many bear traps along the path. This was done in the previous 3 - 4 recessions. Deja Vu

View attachment 8256148
Click to expand...
I had this exact conversation with my brother yesterday. Because most middle class North Americans have become fully convinced that their homes are a giant piggy bank, they will sacrifice everything else to maintain that illusion. Once the housing market implodes they will have nothing and be sad.
 
#3,744
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#3,746
Lightning8 said:
Looking at my portfolio and the market - so obvious that 7 or so stocks are carrying the whole market. Many stocks/ETFs/etc. are at 52 week lows. But we are not in a recession, etc.
Click to expand...
Big money is playing it by manipulating those "Index Funds"... they can get together and run up two or three stocks and keep the index up.
Only the code talkers know which 3 they will run up tomorrow.
There is no recession and inflation has been reeled in......:ROFLMAO:
 
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