Stock Market
- Thread starter pmclaine
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Probably the hardest question out there. I'm not saying that the stock prices aren't real, they absolutely are as they reflect what the buyer is willing to pay. The question becomes how many buyers are left in the market at these prices. When the markets are high and non-financial types get in that is a big signal that the number of buyers is thinning out at a given price range and the market is in a late-stage bull market. Investment wise, excluding a simple preservation of capital strategy, the trick is to find where the herd is in the early stages of moving to or will be moving to.
But the real issue is deeper: what I can see is that cracks in the debt market have been forming, and the debt market is foundational for derivatives and everything else as it the thing that provides cash to pay off other debts, grow through investment, etc. There is a huge amount of financial entanglement between all markets and the banks. What makes this concerning is that it is the banks that create money via loans (fractional reserve system) appear to have started tightening who they give money to, and it causes money to not be created and pushed into the economy. The Fed can lower rates as much as they want but if the banks don't lend this creates a huge issue with respect to GDP and paying off other loans. The other contributing factor is decreasing consumer sentiment: if they don't spend but become net savers or use all of their money to live, this is a further limitation to the velocity of money as it obviously translates into a decrease in retail sales which results in layoffs in both the services and manufacturing sectors. And income growth has stagnated while overall weekly hours worked has decreased, which is currently causing a decrease in take-home pay and contributes to lower money velocity.
In 2024 about 30K businesses declared bankruptcy. Thats 17% higher than 2023. In January of this year there has been an 11% increase in commercial bankruptcy filings from January 2024. And commercial real estate defaults haven't even gotten started yet. What happens to that debt that is in the derivatives market and secondary markets? It's the write-down to book value and the destruction of that cash inflow from debt repayment that is the lynchpin to a lot of things. We talk about AI being the wave of the future, and it probably is to some extent, but if a business doesn't exist it doesn't need AI. The more businesses, the more AI customers there will be. You can say the same for every industry, not just AI. The debt market is the elephant in the room, and it is supported by the consumer who has historical levels of debt and their default rate is very high. But the debt market must grow for the economy to grow. We can pile debt to the moon, but if it isn't paid off via cash or other means the economy will shrink. I think we are approaching an inflection point; which way it goes will be determined by the consumer and whether they have enough money to buy and a corresponding positive outlook on their personal finances and the economy overall.
how many buyers are left? Everyone who contributes to a 401k, TSP, etc.
DCA S&P 500 for life.
DCA S&P 500 for life.
I bought some Tesla today because the Marxists are trying to tank it. Fuck them.
I bet some are trying to short it. Be a shame if it went all GameStop.
I’m feeling pretty good about sinking almost 30% of my investments into physical and paper gold the last couple years…usually capped it at 10%, but started putting in backstops (hedges against inflation) when I got serious about my second retirement last summer.
My problem is that those investments have grown much faster than the rest of my portfolio, so now I’m over invested in gold, and to a lesser extent silver. My primary paper gold vehicle is up 59% FFS!
Gonna be a wild ride…
Need to get back into the market, but honestly nervous about taking any gambles right now, so just gonna rebalance into a couple broad, market-based funds.
Edit: but with gold appreciating at this rate (well, actually it’s just the dollar and other currencies devaluing so quickly I suppose), why switch horses?
I’m honestly torn…I know I need to get back to a more balanced portfolio, but it’s hard to jump off this train right now.
Good problem to have I suppose…
My problem is that those investments have grown much faster than the rest of my portfolio, so now I’m over invested in gold, and to a lesser extent silver. My primary paper gold vehicle is up 59% FFS!
Gonna be a wild ride…
Need to get back into the market, but honestly nervous about taking any gambles right now, so just gonna rebalance into a couple broad, market-based funds.
Edit: but with gold appreciating at this rate (well, actually it’s just the dollar and other currencies devaluing so quickly I suppose), why switch horses?
I’m honestly torn…I know I need to get back to a more balanced portfolio, but it’s hard to jump off this train right now.
Good problem to have I suppose…
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I’m glad I didn’t short gold a year ago, lol. I stopped physical purchases around $2,300 per ounce since I feel I have enough accumulated.
This article has a lot of fear mongering in and falsehoods:
“This uncertainty has started to show up in some sluggish economic data, which further pressured stocks by heightening recession fears.”
Economic data is backward looking and there haven’t been any tariffs implemented yet. If anything, future demand in manufacturing has been pulled forward due to the stocking of raw materials and finished goods in anticipation of this event and have made the past months look better than they otherwise would. The economic softness was already there since it takes 12-18 months for economic policy to evidence itself in the macroeconomic environment. They are writing an article to twist stock fluctuations into a current economic event. The downturn was baked into the cake a while back, and it is compounded by the US consumers’ record debt levels, creating a situation where they simply cannot afford to keep buying things they don’t need on credit.
These people need to go back to econ101. Maybe pre-algebra.
The point of the post was the headline.
Dow futures tumble 1,000 points on fear Trump’s tariffs will spark trade war
But when I need investment advice or financial guidance, I head straight to the 'Hide...
Good thing I didn’t give any. You should read beyond the headlines.The point of the post was the headline.
Dow futures tumble 1,000 points on fear Trump’s tariffs will spark trade war
But when I need investment advice or financial guidance, I head straight to the 'Hide...
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OMG. I posted a note illustrating the precipitous drop in the market and thanked Donny. That's it. Your reply was non sequitur and unnecessary.
Non sequitur - “it does not follow “. The article follows the headline. The conclusions follow the articles false allegations . It’s pretty basic. I mean, unless one is simply using the article headline to restate they hate a certain politician.
I explained in the previous post. I hate no politician. Why on earth would I? I disagree with many. Most, actually. A few I have lost all respect for, and fewer, I never had any. But no, I do not hate any.
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Is it finally time to get a like new F-250 super duty for $40,000? Get the nautilus back to $25,000-$30,000 used? Maybe a 25%-40% price drop on homes nationwide?
I need to deploy some cash, but nothing has been enticing since early 2020. What I would really like to see is an implosion of prices in the trades.
I need to deploy some cash, but nothing has been enticing since early 2020. What I would really like to see is an implosion of prices in the trades.
I could use another Nautilus. They have some with new complications.
We bought two brand-new 2024 FORD SUVs late last week. The deals on new 2024s are crazy.
I’m good on SUV’s, lol. Picked up a 2024 Jeep Grand Cherokee late last year. I need to sell my 4Runners while people are still paying retarded prices for them, but I think I can likely get more once the tariffs hit.
I was going to buy a 2025 4Runner, but the higher trim levels are all marked higher than the sticker price. In my AO, dealers are charging between $3,000 to $5,000 higher than the sticker.
In a few months, that will change.
I have a 2014 and 2019 4Runners. The jeep beats them pretty much across the board. I just never sell vehicles, lol.
the over the top dooming is crazy. stocks are back to where they were in november, and the media is trying to create panic.
oh no, thump killed america!
oh no, thump killed america!
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Tesla Cybertrucks seem like they will be cutting prices and prices of used ones likely already cratered
With Tesla having issues selling new Cybertrucks, the automaker is reportedly not taking any as trade-ins. Many Cybertruck owners reported trying to trade-in the truck for a new vehicle and they were told that the automaker currently doesn’t accept its own vehicle as a trade-in.
Some owners who have had their trucks in service for extended periods of time are also trying to get Tesla to take the truck back, but the company is forcing them to go through the Lemon Law process.
It’s not surprising to see Tesla not wanting to take back used Cybertrucks as their prices are falling fast.
Used Cybertruck prices are down 55% year over year, 13% over the last three months, and 6% over the last month.
As Tesla doesn’t take the Cybertruck as a trade-in, other used car dealers are also reticent about buying the vehicle. They have been known to give low-ball offers to potential sellers as they wait to see where the price will stabilize.
Do you think they won't be available or the prices will start rising with the tarrifs? Maybe both?
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