Edit..forgot to separate Bartlein from the rest of the industry
@Frank Green
This is not aimed at you..you are out here everyday trying to help, answering every question and PM.
In general lead times aren’t an issue, they can be accounted for during production.
The issue is the absolute disregard for customer communication by most companies.
If every part of a build took 6 months and the build itself takes 2 months than a average lead time is 8 months etc
If/we the customer understood that ..we would order a rifle 8 months in advance across the board.
This industry quotes a lead time, then not only missed the due date but has limited comms or inaccurate info/ updates when asked.
there is nothing wrong with a controlled growth plan especially when equipment cost is high and procurement time for that equipment time is over a year (I believe barrel machines are 18 months if not more but don’t quote me), but if you are not increasing capacity the planning is even easier.
Simple rate, hours, equals output.
Schedule around the bottle neck department
Plan to a reasonable uptime
factor in made to stock/ forecast items
The remainder is made to order
Campaign when possible for efficiencies
PM time scheduled in
That’s the facility production schedule..it’s scheduling 101
the issue becomes holding inventory because inventory is expensive but in this industry there is no inventory because everything is always back ordered, so the fear of sitting on a pile of dead money “is less”.
Ordering materials that are a 2 year contract etc can be scary as well because you’re now in the hook for big dollars but that’s the business. Thinking that you can run a business in a long lead time industry and not think you need long lead time planning is just not intelligent.
The mfg knows when the next “cycle of product is coming through with in reason”, but that dies in their hands.
If they don’t know,,how do they order raw materials..so if course they know.
They just let the customer flap in the wind on buyer yet the same guys complain and go back for more.
Of course there are nuances and nothing is easy but that is why you make more than running a candy store.