Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

#3,401
BCP said:
And they will all blame Trump for the shitfuck "Economy" they pass on to him.
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Thats true, they are still blaming Trump now but he can still make improvements immediately and the economy will come back quickly. The real key is getting legislation passed though to codify some changes so the next potus can't reverse it like biden did with so much stuff.
 
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#3,402
For that you have to control more than one house, and it has to be by more than a couple of vote margin, because the Republicans are now the diverse party with a wide range of views, and the Democrats are completely united under Marxism. They have gotten rid of any ledgeslator who is not 100% on board with their radical, leftist ideology. Where as we have libertarians, social conservatives, believing Christians (now called Evangelicals), fiscal conservatives who are socially liberal, etc. The Republicans are not unified on much, so they need a much larger majority than Democrats to get anything passed.

It used to be that the left was a coalition, but now they're entirely monothink, and for expanding Federal power massively beyond it's Constitutional bounds, not that it already isn't, but now they're for wiping their asses with the Constitution. I don't know about you, but that qualifies as a "Domestic Enemy" by my reading.
 
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#3,404
And they will all blame Trump for the shitfuck "Economy" they pass on to him.
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They pray that the wheels fall off before Trump returns to office. I'd rather have the ship slip under Pedo Pedro than the Malevolent Sunkist Entity (Bad Orange Man) take the heat. I blame the Fed Res, the Congress of 1913, Woody Wilson, LBJ (guns 'n butter which drained our nation of the yaller metal) and then QE/TARP (both which fixed nothing and put us on today's downward trajectory)
 
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#3,406
Gary/CO said:
They pray that the wheels fall off before Trump returns to office. I'd rather have the ship slip under Pedo Pedro than the Malevolent Sunkist Entity (Bad Orange Man) take the heat. I blame the Fed Res, the Congress of 1913, Woody Wilson, LBJ (guns 'n butter which drained our nation of the yaller metal) and then QE/TARP (both which fixed nothing and put us on today's downward trajectory)
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I don’t crash happens until next yr. They’ll find a way to crash it under Trump. I invite it. We need one. When it happens, if you don’t at minimum triple your ROI? You’re doing something wrong
 
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#3,407
Wizard1183 said:
I don’t crash happens until next yr. They’ll find a way to crash it under Trump. I invite it. We need one. When it happens, if you don’t at minimum triple your ROI? You’re doing something wrong
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In some ways I agree. I made a lot of money, well for a little peon like me, in 2020 because of the Covid crash. With that said, I think the boys earlier in this thread are talking a very different type of crash, one where nobody is going to be safe. There is a lot of people speculating a 1929 type crash or worse, which will be a worldwide crash. And we have a lot more people to feed and resources needed today than we did in 1929 so…and what really pulled us out of it last time? Think about that.
 
#3,408
SilentStalkr said:
In some ways I agree. I made a lot of money, well for a little peon like me, in 2020 because of the Covid crash. With that said, I think the boys earlier in this thread are talking a very different type of crash, one where nobody is going to be safe. There is a lot of people speculating a 1929 type crash or worse, which will be a worldwide crash. And we have a lot more people to feed and resources needed today than we did in 1929 so…and what really pulled us out of it last time? Think about that.
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I think we’ll have a depression again when it crashes but I don’t think it’ll last a decade. There’s starving people today as there were back then. It won’t be good for many but I don’t think they’re going to allow civil wars to happen cause then? No one is safe. Even the ones that created this
 
#3,409
SilentStalkr said:
In some ways I agree. I made a lot of money, well for a little peon like me, in 2020 because of the Covid crash. With that said, I think the boys earlier in this thread are talking a very different type of crash, one where nobody is going to be safe. There is a lot of people speculating a 1929 type crash or worse, which will be a worldwide crash. And we have a lot more people to feed and resources needed today than we did in 1929 so…and what really pulled us out of it last time? Think about that.
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I have. I told my boys if a draft comes they may have to make some tough choices. If they end up in uniform, incredible fitness is the best way to get into units that are a bit more professional and likely to keep a guy alive. Cannon fodder is cheap to politicians.
 
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#3,410
Emerson0311 said:
I have. I told my boys if a draft comes they may have to make some tough choices. If they end up in uniform, incredible fitness is the best way to get into units that are a bit more professional and likely to keep a guy alive. Cannon fodder is cheap to politicians.
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Wars are no longer really fought with foot soldiers so I don’t see a draft ever happening again
 
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#3,411
There is some semblance of all kinds of war going on right now, even for the US. And the US is hanging on by a thread. For how long, nobody knows but most are too blind to see it. Internal and external conflict, likely by design. Likely some serious backdoor coalitions that those that should know are either not noticing or turning a blind eye to. It’s kind of like I said about the VZ gangs of illegals taking over US territory. It’s happening and it could be stopped overnight, but it isn’t. Ask yourself why?
 
#3,413

In "Last Hurrah", Credit Card Debt Unexpectedly Soars Despite Record High APRs As Savings Rate Hits Record Low | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

"
Yet with consumers ever more strapped for actual cash and equity, as the personal savings rate in the US collapses from over 5% to 2.9% - the lowest since the Lehman bankruptcy - in just one year, as all the excess savings from covid are long gone...



... there is only so much more credit card maxing out that can take place before reality finally sets in, as can be seen in the next and perhaps most striking chart yet: total credit card debt is at an all-time high while the personal savings rate is record low!



Then again, with the election less than two months away - one which ensures that any credit-card fueled spending must be encouraged - don't be surprised if the White House directly orders banks to just ignore soaring delinquency and charge-off rates...

"
 
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#3,417
lariat said:
www.nbcnews.com

Fed goes big with interest rate cut in a bid to head off an economic slowdown

The Federal Reserve uses its federal funds rate, which serves as a benchmark for interest rates in the rest of the economy, as its main tool for regulating inflation and unemployment.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
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Hence the rise in equities creating an artficial sense of wealth. Those electronic digits to grow (and historically did in hyper-inflation). Precious metals are also up and that reflects inflation.
 
#3,421
This is more of a qualitative observation, but I am involved with Hero's Care (only military and veterans) and another charity that operates food pantries, and the shelves are fucking EMPTY. Americans are literally going hungry, and that doesn't happen very often with how much chairitable activity normally goes on.

Biden/Harris has more than doubled the child poverty rate in their very short tenure:


You know its bad when even the commies are taking note.
 
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#3,422
Fig said:
This is more of a qualitative observation, but I am involved with Hero's Care (only military and veterans) and another charity that operates food pantries, and the shelves are fucking EMPTY. Americans are literally going hungry, and that doesn't happen very often with how much chairitable activity normally goes on.

Biden/Harris has more than doubled the child poverty rate in their very short tenure:


You know its bad when even the commies are taking note.
Click to expand...

We are noticing the same thing here locally at the food bank. Talking to one of the board members of the bank they stated that it was all types of both lower and middle income. The poor are the usual customers, but it changed this year. Newer cars and much longer lines. They stated that people are finding out that through inflation, increased taxes and debt payments that they cannot make ends meet and the food bank is now running too lean. Their fear is that if something goes sideways it's going to be very bad.
 
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#3,424
lariat said:
We are noticing the same thing here locally at the food bank. Talking to one of the board members of the bank they stated that it was all types of both lower and middle income. The poor are the usual customers, but it changed this year. Newer cars and much longer lines. They stated that people are finding out that through inflation, increased taxes and debt payments that they cannot make ends meet and the food bank is now running too lean. Their fear is that if something goes sideways it's going to be very bad.
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If something goes sideways, 1929 will look like a walk in the park in comparison.
 
#3,426
Emerson0311 said:
I have. I told my boys if a draft comes they may have to make some tough choices. If they end up in uniform, incredible fitness is the best way to get into units that are a bit more professional and likely to keep a guy alive. Cannon fodder is cheap to politicians.
Click to expand...
This is my concern.

My oldest just turned 16, still a little early to be forced in but I definitely don’t want him enlisting. He wrestles so he’s in much better shape than a lot of kids his age.

My youngest is way off enlisting and with his CVI would be unable to fortunately.
 
#3,429
Greatest Economy ever.. gov tells me so and Kamala wouldn't lie

Walgreens to close 1,200 stores nationwide, says 1 in 4 locations are unprofitable​

nypost.com

Walgreens to close 1,200 stores nationwide, says 1 in 4 locations are unprofitable

Walgreens’ stock is trading near 30-year lows and down 65% this year, making it the worst performing stock on the S&P 500 index.
nypost.com nypost.com

must suck to watch that merchandise 'walkout' the door without getting paid for. Great Job California
who pays.??. the honest person with higher costs passed on to the consumer. :(
 
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#3,430
In competition with CVS Pharmacy, Walgreens overexpanded to meet store for store. Every couple of blocks there was either a CVS or Waalgreens. California's raising of minimum wage to $15 hurt both chains as cost of labor/doing business shot up and made them less profitable. Then the legalization of theft in CA ($999 is petty theft instead of $399 so no cop shows up to take the report or make an arrest) meant a lot of CA stores aren't profitable. Mobs in NYC also make stores unprofitable.

The American consumer for large part has been tapped out. Less dining out and restaurant chains are folding. Even sales at McD and other fast food (if they can be dignified by calling it food) are down!

Remember, how you save determines whether you saved at all. Counter-party risk (reliance on another party to fufil their end of the contract/bargain) is very high. Hope y'all read David Rogers Webb The Great Taking or at least listened to the free audio book.
 
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#3,431
Gary/CO said:
In competition with CVS Pharmacy, Walgreens overexpanded to meet store for store. Every couple of blocks there was either a CVS or Waalgreens. California's raising of minimum wage to $15 hurt both chains as cost of labor/doing business shot up and made them less profitable. Then the legalization of theft in CA ($999 is petty theft instead of $399 so no cop shows up to take the report or make an arrest) meant a lot of CA stores aren't profitable. Mobs in NYC also make stores unprofitable.

The American consumer for large part has been tapped out. Less dining out and restaurant chains are folding. Even sales at McD and other fast food (if they can be dignified by calling it food) are down!

Remember, how you save determines whether you saved at all. Counter-party risk (reliance on another party to fufil their end of the contract/bargain) is very high. Hope y'all read David Rogers Webb The Great Taking or at least listened to the free audio book.
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A collapse of economy is coming. However they’re geared for it. Robotics will replace jobs which they hope will be cheaper than human error, but with planned obsolescence, I don’t think so.
 
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#3,432
#3,434
NoDopes said:

TGI Fridays Closes 50 Stores as It Prepares for Bankruptcy​

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Bummer… I can neither confirm nor deny that their ready-to-drink mudslide can be carried into and sipped throughout the entirety of a staff meeting when transferred to a Starbucks Frappuccino bottle!

1729715344621.jpeg
 
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#3,440
Wizard1183 said:
Man is AI based articles. Click bait
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Actually:


"In the week ending January 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 212,750.

This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000."

Take a look at U3 and U6 unemployment. There is a trend.
 
#3,441
lariat said:
Actually:


"In the week ending January 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 212,750.

This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000."

Take a look at U3 and U6 unemployment. There is a trend.
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I meant MSN articles are clickbait. It shouldn’t be a surprise that unemployment rates will go up. AI will replace lots workers. Walk into a Popeyes chicken and you can’t order with a person. Have it use the kiosk lol. McDonald’s is getting this way. I’m talking if you went inside. Pretty soon you won’t eat in those places. It’ll just be a drive thru. Increase profit with AI taking the order and making the food. 2-3 workers in there tops. Eliminate operators or secretaries as AI can answer the phone for you. It’s coming. That’s why 1/3 of my portfolio is Nvidia. They’re going to be the number 1 company in their world soon and will reign champion for at least a decade
 
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#3,442
Add to that if Trump moves ahead with the tariffs you can add Recession of 2025 to it. Folks kinda seem to not get the whole tarif thing, how it works .
Its a tax on Imports paid by American consumers, not some foreign nation or company. Its not like Sneakers for Amish will suddenly be manufactured in Detroit because of the Tarrifs.

Same goes for excesive goverment spending ,Rent seeking economy is hooked to FED IV drip ,i dont see Trump cutting it aggressively any time soon , just remember all Republican mandates before never cut spending in notable way ran deficits no much different than the Demorats.
 
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#3,443
Mr.BR said:
Add to that if Trump moves ahead with the tariffs you can add Recession of 2025 to it. Folks kinda seem to not get the whole tarif thing, how it works .
Its a tax on Imports paid by American consumers, not some foreign nation or company. Its not like Sneakers for Amish will suddenly be manufactured in Detroit because of the Tarrifs.

Same goes for excesive goverment spending ,Rent seeking economy is hooked to FED IV drip ,i dont see Trump cutting it aggressively any time soon , just remember all Republican mandates before never cut spending in notable way ran deficits no much different than the Demorats.
Click to expand...
He stated he’s holding off on the tariffs. Threatened Russia with is if they don’t pull out the war. Possibly next yr we’ll get that tariff market crash. I wish it’d be this yr
 
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#3,444
Mr.BR said:
Add to that if Trump moves ahead with the tariffs you can add Recession of 2025 to it. Folks kinda seem to not get the whole tarif thing, how it works .
Its a tax on Imports paid by American consumers, not some foreign nation or company. Its not like Sneakers for Amish will suddenly be manufactured in Detroit because of the Tarrifs.

Same goes for excesive goverment spending ,Rent seeking economy is hooked to FED IV drip ,i dont see Trump cutting it aggressively any time soon , just remember all Republican mandates before never cut spending in notable way ran deficits no much different than the Demorats.
Click to expand...
Its not just the tariffs, and it isn't AI meaningfully (yet). It is the condition of the overall economy in the entire world. There is currently an early phase liquidity crunch. In a US-centric view, consumer credit write-offs are absolutely huge, the commercial real estate sector is coming upon a period of loan maturity and will be looking to refinance and will have to do it at a much higher rate while occupancy is down, banks are holding massive unrealized losses on bonds and loans, we have hit the debt ceiling and if Trump's firing of government employees hold true the unemployment rate will increase. All of this impacts spending which hits a consumer-lead economy hard, but much of this needs to happen in order to get the malinvestment out of the system.

The consensus for where rates are headed is mixed. But if the government steps in to stop the bleeding you can rest assured inflation will head north, which will only add to the problem. That doesn't mean that certain sectors won't be profitable, but in a macroeconomic sense it will be difficult.

The thing to watch out for is now that the election cycle is over and the MSM's party of choice is no longer in the White House the articles that come out will be decidedly negative vs a positive spin placed on everything. Don't misunderstand the ability of the news to form negative emotions in the minds of the people who do not look at the data. Trump and his administration are going to have to make things happen and be out there telling the American people daily what they are doing and why to keep the vision running out in front of the MSM.
 
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#3,445
Tariffs should only be imposed on products imported in competition against American manufactured products. As mentioned earlier by Mr. BR, tariffs are passed onto the consumer.

Concur with lariat that we are in a liquidity crunch. Trump's response would be to lower interest rates, which would cheapen the dollar and increase inflation. We still lose.

I'm glad he's cutting off foreign aid. We're broke and have been for a long time now. When no one buys out debt instruments, we're f**ked.
 
#3,446
Gary/CO said:
Tariffs should only be imposed on products imported in competition against American manufactured products. As mentioned earlier by Mr. BR, tariffs are passed onto the consumer.

Concur with lariat that we are in a liquidity crunch. Trump's response would be to lower interest rates, which would cheapen the dollar and increase inflation. We still lose.

I'm glad he's cutting off foreign aid. We're broke and have been for a long time now. When no one buys out debt instruments, we're f**ked.
Click to expand...
What American products? 😂

Tariffs only on imports that compete with American products? Well looks like we won’t be giving tariffs on anything then since America produces like 1% of it products that are in the country lol
 
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#3,447
It's funny to watch you guys lament on tariffs as if Trump doesn't know what he's doing. Thinking you know more about this than Trump is just hilarious. There's more to it than just the tariff. #1- it's used to get policy done, not just on a whim. If other countries will be fair with us, they don't have to worry about it. If you make products IN the USA, you also don't have to worry about it. If you want to continue to screw us, you will pay a heavy price. Does that mean consumer prices may go up, yes. Is that the ONLY factor or tool being used ? NO!

Energy will also come down, which will be DEFLATIONARY . Regulation and production times will also come way down- DEFLATIONARY. Huge increase in business done IN the USA will happen. Will some areas be hurt a little during thus? Yes probably so, my industry included but we can't keep doing things this way. We literally can't do it. Change has to happen and Trump understands all of this extremely well. There's lots of ways he can effect things including tariffs.

Also, there's plenty of ways Trump can alter the end result IF another country/company wants to play the hard way game...

Some major things HAVE to get done. Period. Acting like Trump is strolling into a great situation and just wants to put tariffs on everything for no reason is dishonest and foolish. Don't buy into this media hype that tariffs are going to be awful. These are the same people that have lied to you for many Years, don't start believing their fear econ porn now.
 
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#3,448
BuildingConceptsllc said:
It's funny to watch you guys lament on tariffs as if Trump doesn't know what he's doing. Thinking you know more about this than Trump is just hilarious. There's more to it than just the tariff. #1- it's used to get policy done, not just on a whim. If other countries will be fair with us, they don't have to worry about it. If you make products IN the USA, you also don't have to worry about it. If you want to continue to screw us, you will pay a heavy price. Does that mean consumer prices may go up, yes. Is that the ONLY factor or tool being used ? NO!

Energy will also come down, which will be DEFLATIONARY . Regulation and production times will also come way down- DEFLATIONARY. Huge increase in business done IN the USA will happen. Will some areas be hurt a little during thus? Yes probably so, my industry included but we can't keep doing things this way. We literally can't do it. Change has to happen and Trump understands all of this extremely well. There's lots of ways he can effect things including tariffs.

Also, there's plenty of ways Trump can alter the end result IF another country/company wants to play the hard way game...

Some major things HAVE to get done. Period. Acting like Trump is strolling into a great situation and just wants to put tariffs on everything for no reason is dishonest and foolish. Don't buy into this media hype that tariffs are going to be awful. These are the same people that have lied to you for many Years, don't start believing their fear econ porn now.
Click to expand...
Disinflationary is a possibility, especially in certain commodities. You don’t want deflation. Bad juju. Very bad. The Fed will fight deflation to the bitter end.
 
#3,449
lariat said:
Disinflationary is a possibility, especially in certain commodities. You don’t want deflation. Bad juju. Very bad. The Fed will fight deflation to the bitter end.
Click to expand...
Deflation would just reset. Trump said he’s holding off on tariffs and lowering interest rates. That’s cause if he lowers rates a crash is imminent It’s going to happen. But probably in a cpl yrs perhaps when he’s about to get out of office. Works for me, I need one to become a multimillionaire
 
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