How long until gas price drops?

JoshPutman

Make tar and feathers great again.
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Minuteman
Jan 22, 2020
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Michigan
With Donald Trump back in the White House, how long before we see lower prices at the pump?

It's still up over $3 a gallon here in Michigan. I'd love to start paying less than $2 a gallon again.

Any speculation from people in the know?
 
Gas is around $2.70-80/gal here, it went up a dime or so lately, but it will take a while for Don John to get things going his way, depending on how much crap/legal battles there are.
 
I think yall are forgetting the Covid shut down was part of the reason we saw such low prices at the end of Trumps presidency when demand fell off a cliff.

I don’t think anyone here wants another plandemic.

Brent crude is forecast to average in the 70’s(per barrel )in 25 and potentially in the $60’s in 26. Barring some unforeseen crisis. A little dip but I’d personally be surprised if it went below $2(pergallon)

So we will likely see some drop, but you likely dont want the consequences of what caused the 2020 drop. Remember the lockdowns.

take it for what its worth.
 
just as a reminder

Pre-covid December 2019
national avg $2.58 gallon


December 2018
national avg $2.42 gallon


Also keep in mind there has been 30% inflation each year for YEARS now (that does not mean a direct reflection in gas prices of 30% increases each year, but it does mean something towards a higher price today)


1737900313510.png
 
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With Donald Trump back in the White House, how long before we see lower prices at the pump?

It's still up over $3 a gallon here in Michigan. I'd love to start paying less than $2 a gallon again.

Any speculation from people in the know?
Never (likely). The only way to decrease prices is to decrease world demand or increase world supply. Oil (and gas) is a commodity, traded on the world markets. But I am absolutely certain Donny will lower prices as promised. :rolleyes:
 
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I’m not sure how long it will take for the Oil Patch in the Permian basin to gin back up, but those guys were the back bone of the US’s oil independence. The road between Carlsbad and Pecos is an education (albeit a dangerous one) in oil production. When the oil fields work, EVERYBODY works. Same with the pipeline, it will take a while to get that ginned up again. Lowering prices is going to be based on production, and a lot of idle equipment and neglected or outright destroyed infrastructure from Biden and Obama, will have to be corrected, and brought back online. Im sure the left is confident that their version of a fix is irreparable. They are counting on continuing the destruction, even during Trump’s term.
 
There will be a short term increase in demand once all the 20 million+ illegals load all the crap they can stuff into their trucks and head for the border. Self deportation is going to start once word gets around that they'll be permanently cut off from all the freebies if they are involuntarily deported.
 
How quickly do you think refineries and oil rigs can respond? The answer I'm guessing is not that fast... probably going to take a few months and don't forget, our oil refineries are setup for the garbage foreign oil as America sells off it's higher grade crude. (I still think not having any refineries setup/optimized for our own oil is stupid)
 
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The out of control with too much power EPA will do anything to stop the building of new refineries. Been that way for a long time.
You should visit Ponca City, Oklahoma some time... my wife is from there... the refinery there is one of the largest in the nation.... hilariously across the road from them is some of the highest gas prices around ROFL.... But to the point... that place is sometimes running so wide open it's a bit scary..... someone screws up to much pressure needs venting and you end up with what looks like a blow torch lighting up the sky for a few hours sometimes with alarms going off.... only seen it super bad once... but it was honestly crazy, as in I'd thought 100' tall flames coming up out of the vent.... lit up the sky for miles that morning.
 
You should visit Ponca City, Oklahoma some time... my wife is from there... the refinery there is one of the largest in the nation.... hilariously across the road from them is some of the highest gas prices around ROFL.... But to the point... that place is sometimes running so wide open it's a bit scary..... someone screws up to much pressure needs venting and you end up with what looks like a blow torch lighting up the sky for a few hours sometimes with alarms going off.... only seen it super bad once... but it was honestly crazy, as in I'd thought 100' tall flames coming up out of the vent.... lit up the sky for miles that morning.
I live here. I used to be an operator in that refinery. Later I worked in research until they destroyed it by moving it to Bartelsville.
 
We need more refineries. It's supply and demand. If we build more supply and keep demand constant, then the price will drop.
Yes, and one of the reasons the war in Ukraine needs to end. While much of Ukraines transit and infrastructure has been destroyed.

So has Russia's along with sanctions. Ukraine heavily damaged a Russian refinery that handles about 5% of Russia's output earlier this week. End that war and the supply chain increases.

Fertilizer prices too which is linked to gas production( used to make nitrogen) and heavily affect food prices, is from that war.
 
We are still way below the average US rig count compared to 2018 and 2019. Once investment cash starts flowing into Oilfield and the rig count goes up to 18/19 numbers, assuming there are not bottlenecks with US refineries, we should see an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. There are external factors like OPEC production, middle east nonsense and the Russia/ukraine spat that can effect the supply/demand curve also.
 
How does the president prompt corporations to increase output, which will in turn decrease profits?
That is in no way related to how Oilfield works. Rig counts are driven by money invested into new drilling projects. Money invested into Oilfield is based on how the investors view the future of oil consumption. Trump has promised to remove regulations on companies which would reduce their costs to market, making for a better investment proposition. Drill baby drill means Trump wants the US to be energy independent and a net exporter, which means an increase in demand.

Your math is also faulty. While the supply will increase and the cost per barrel of oil will go down, the increase in out put will offset the reduced $/barrel. The total amount of profit dollars will increase dramatically as output increases.
 
Also remember, that just drilling more oil does not reduce domestic gas prices as much as you'd think. Part of that reason is a significant amount of domestically pumped oil and refined fuel is exported. Mostly because gas prices in many countries are higher than here and it's more profit to export it, and in some cases since our oil isn't the best quality in many places, we don't have good refineries for it. We are the #1 oil producer in the world by far now, we've blown Russia and Sadi Arabia out of the water by a wide margin since around 2020, and have been the leading oil producer since around 2015. We probably produce almost 30% more oil than the next leading country today, so the idea that we're somehow reducing production or going backwards is just simply false marketing.

That exporting takes a toll on domestic supply and keeps our prices higher. Basically if companies stopped doing that, we could have eliminated our domestic consumption long ago. It's of course a bit more complex than that, because not every petroleum product is made here, so some have to be exported/imported. That said, it's a free country they can sell to whoever they want and if others will pay them more for it, hard to blame them, but if we were not a massive exporter of petroleum products, we probably could already be oil independent. Part of that equation is simply oil/refinery desire for higher profits selling to other countries that pay more for their products.

In 2023 the US exported 10% of the total US gasoline consumption, almost 1 million barrels a day, and over 10 million barrels a day are exported of general petroleum products. We are the world's only net exporter of refined petroleum. In 2023 we imported ~9 million barrels of petroleum products per day, but exported almost 11 million.

They are building refineries, though you could make a case that they are not building enough. 10 refineries have come online since 2012, including the 2nd and 3rd largest capacity refineries in the country. I'm all for increasing our supply and getting out of the practice of paying our enemies for oil, but as long as the free market is involved, that will never happen, even if we doubled our production. As long as companies can make more money exporting fuel, they will, if you try to increase supply so much it hurts their bottom dollar, they will just dial back how much the product at the wells. Pretty much all of this info can be found at eia.gov

The idea that somehow we're going to get a to place where we have $1.50 gas, will never happen in a free market where greed controls the entire game. Nothing wrong with that, greed and a desire to succeed is crucial and frankly in short supply these days, but it's directly at odds with lower consumer prices. If we drill more, they will just export more for the higher profits as opposed to holding it domestically for cheaper pump prices.
 
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President Trump has only been in office exactly one week and already people demanding lower gas prices. Wishful thinking is good although it will come down but it takes a awhile due to the trickle down effect. The refineries are normally shut down this time of the year for rebuild and maintenance so the available fuel supplies in a given area will be much lower because Fucktarded and corrupted Biden regime drained out the fuel reserves.
 
A new drilling project offshore is likely 3-10 years (my numbers) from ever seeing production provided the drilling project hits adequate paydirt. The short term supply increase will have to come from already established production ramping up.

I don't know much about land based drilling-to-production times.
 
We are still way below the average US rig count compared to 2018 and 2019. Once investment cash starts flowing into Oilfield and the rig count goes up to 18/19 numbers, assuming there are not bottlenecks with US refineries, we should see an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. There are external factors like OPEC production, middle east nonsense and the Russia/ukraine spat that can effect the supply/demand curve also.
We are below the number since 2014, when the number began declining. But the number of wells is not indicative of output. Output has increased as number of producing wells have gone down.
 
That is in no way related to how Oilfield works. Rig counts are driven by money invested into new drilling projects. Money invested into Oilfield is based on how the investors view the future of oil consumption. Trump has promised to remove regulations on companies which would reduce their costs to market, making for a better investment proposition. Drill baby drill means Trump wants the US to be energy independent and a net exporter, which means an increase in demand.

Your math is also faulty. While the supply will increase and the cost per barrel of oil will go down, the increase in out put will offset the reduced $/barrel. The total amount of profit dollars will increase dramatically as output increases.
Increasing production increases costs, but more importantly decreases profit for investors. The motivation for companies to drill or not is irrelevant if the motivation does not come from the president. And it does not, it comes from the corporate BOD.

 
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Never (likely). The only way to decrease prices is to decrease world demand or increase world supply. Oil (and gas) is a commodity, traded on the world markets. But I am absolutely certain Donny will lower prices as promised. :rolleyes:
It's going to take 6-9 months before significant new supply can reach the refineries. What Trump is doing is turning on the financing, which Biden turned off meaning that the smaller drilling companies can make money again.
 
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How does the president prompt corporations to increase output, which will in turn decrease profits?
In reality, the profit won't necessarily drop, your margins will. To increase your profit you will need to increase sales. Grocery stores normally run in the 3% margin range. Now I know energy is capitol intensive so they have to run higher margins to hit their ROI, but if you increase supply, the consumer cost should drop.
 
How does the president prompt corporations to increase output, which will in turn decrease profits?
In reality, the profit won't necessarily drop, your margins will. To increase your profit you will need to increase sales. Grocery stores normally run in the 3% margin range. Now I know energy is capitol intensive so they have to run higher margins to hit their ROI, but if you increase supply, the consumer cost should drop.
Also remember, that just drilling more oil does not reduce domestic gas prices as much as you'd think. Part of that reason is a significant amount of domestically pumped oil and refined fuel is exported. Mostly because gas prices in many countries are higher than here and it's more profit to export it, and in some cases since our oil isn't the best quality in many places, we don't have good refineries for it. We are the #1 oil producer in the world by far now, we've blown Russia and Sadi Arabia out of the water by a wide margin since around 2020, and have been the leading oil producer since around 2015. We probably produce almost 30% more oil than the next leading country today, so the idea that we're somehow reducing production or going backwards is just simply false marketing.

That exporting takes a toll on domestic supply and keeps our prices higher. Basically if companies stopped doing that, we could have eliminated our domestic consumption long ago. It's of course a bit more complex than that, because not every petroleum product is made here, so some have to be exported/imported. That said, it's a free country they can sell to whoever they want and if others will pay them more for it, hard to blame them, but if we were not a massive exporter of petroleum products, we probably could already be oil independent. Part of that equation is simply oil/refinery desire for higher profits selling to other countries that pay more for their products.

In 2023 the US exported 10% of the total US gasoline consumption, almost 1 million barrels a day, and over 10 million barrels a day are exported of general petroleum products. We are the world's only net exporter of refined petroleum. In 2023 we imported ~9 million barrels of petroleum products per day, but exported almost 11 million.

They are building refineries, though you could make a case that they are not building enough. 10 refineries have come online since 2012, including the 2nd and 3rd largest capacity refineries in the country. I'm all for increasing our supply and getting out of the practice of paying our enemies for oil, but as long as the free market is involved, that will never happen, even if we doubled our production. As long as companies can make more money exporting fuel, they will, if you try to increase supply so much it hurts their bottom dollar, they will just dial back how much the product at the wells. Pretty much all of this info can be found at eia.gov

The idea that somehow we're going to get a to place where we have $1.50 gas, will never happen in a free market where greed controls the entire game. Nothing wrong with that, greed and a desire to succeed is crucial and frankly in short supply these days, but it's directly at odds with lower consumer prices. If we drill more, they will just export more for the higher profits as opposed to holding it domestically for cheaper pump prices.
What is your thought on adding tariffs into the equation? It might make our products a little more expensive on the other side of the table so the overseas demand might be lower.
 
Increasing production increases costs, but more importantly decreases profit for investors. The motivation for companies to drill or not is irrelevant if the motivation does not come from the president. And it does not, it comes from the corporate BOD.

I really feel like I am wasting my time because you are saying some pretty silly things.
Increasing production actually reduces the cost per unit of item produced, that is a simple fact.

Do you understand that the profitability for an oil stock is based on total profit dollars and not % profit per barrel? Can you see the difference between the two? As volume increases so does the total profit dollars. That causes the EPS for a stock to increase.
 
I really feel like I am wasting my time because you are saying some pretty silly things.
Increasing production actually reduces the cost per unit of item produced, that is a simple fact.

Do you understand that the profitability for an oil stock is based on total profit dollars and not % profit per barrel? Can you see the difference between the two? As volume increases so does the total profit dollars. That causes the EPS for a stock to increase.
Assuming production merely increases. Did you even read the article? Apparently not. You are not arguing with me.
 
I really feel like I am wasting my time because you are saying some pretty silly things.
Increasing production actually reduces the cost per unit of item produced, that is a simple fact.

Do you understand that the profitability for an oil stock is based on total profit dollars and not % profit per barrel? Can you see the difference between the two? As volume increases so does the total profit dollars. That causes the EPS for a stock to increase.

Futures market has a huge affect on gas prices too. Just him talking the other day knocked a couple dollars off future barrel prices.
 
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What is your thought on adding tariffs into the equation? It might make our products a little more expensive on the other side of the table so the overseas demand might be lower.
Honestly I don't know much about the tariff stuff. In this case it seems like it could hurt us more than help.

Tarrifs only help if you are protecting a domestic market but not an exporting market. In oil we are a net exporter, if we levy tariffs, it seems likely those countries would also increase tariffs on our exported oil and we'd end up worse off, since we export more than we import.

Tariffs are a hard sell, we're basically trying to reverse 50 years of selling out American jobs overseas for corporate profits and to give consumers cheaper prices. It's going to be extremely uncomfortable to do that, and honesty in 2025 I don't think the average American has the patriotism required to sacrifice what it would take in their day to day lives/comfort to do so. Consumers LOVE cheap prices, look at Walmart, horrible store to shop in, everyone hates it, but it's busy all the time cause it's cheap. People will put up with a lot for lower prices.
 
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Assuming production merely increases. Did you even read the article? Apparently not. You are not arguing with me.
I don’t care about the article because I understand supply/demand, production costs and I work for a company that sells chemicals into the oilfield. Parroting some nonsense in a marginal article does not make someone correct or informed.
 
I think yall are forgetting the Covid shut down was part of the reason we saw such low prices at the end of Trumps presidency when demand fell off a cliff.

I don’t think anyone here wants another plandemic.

Brent crude is forecast to average in the 70’s(per barrel )in 25 and potentially in the $60’s in 26. Barring some unforeseen crisis. A little dip but I’d personally be surprised if it went below $2(pergallon)

So we will likely see some drop, but you likely dont want the consequences of what caused the 2020 drop. Remember the lockdowns.

take it for what its worth.
I paid .99 a gal in April 2020…..

ETA: @Bender https://wakeupwyo.com/here-are-the-lowest-gas-prices-in-wyoming-042720/
 
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I am weird on this subject, for what I accomplish using one gallon of gas $3/gal is very reasonable to me. Now multiple dollars for a coffee, several dollars for an iced tea, a few for a pop now that is a waste.
Good points. I don't like $3 a gallon gas but can live with it., even though I put almost 40K miles an ear on work truck. The prices though for coffee (plain black) tea, or a soda has gotten stupid.
 
Since OPEC regulates production to keep prices higher, not likely. Even if we increase production they can just back off of theirs.

Maybe DJT can get them to increase production, but he will have to give the Arabs something they want to get it.
 
Good points. I don't like $3 a gallon gas but can live with it., even though I put almost 40K miles an ear on work truck. The prices though for coffee (plain black) tea, or a soda has gotten stupid.
Wait till the Colombia tariffs kick in. Coffee ain't going down...
 
What the OP wants will take time. Biden did his best to F things up oil wise. Despite that, US is still producing a lot of oil. The need for regional refineries are also there. Refineries are very expensive and take years to get on line. CA has a few that are shutting as well due to State Gov fuckery. Those feed some western states like Utah, Nevada and AZ for instance. It's not just about more oil... need more refined products and that will lead to lower prices. Those lower prices will lead to a reduction in the rate of inflation for just about everything else. The huge spikes we've seen in past several years are unfortunately baked in now for most products and will remain. Gas should come down and stabilize over time. Sub $2 gas is not happening. At some point, the cost to produce the oil will cross into the "not profitable" region. Many wells are at a $45-50 a barrel region. Plus, increases in wages reduce that margin.