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A question for the SH Brain Trust...

LuckyDuck

Major Hide Member
Full Member
Minuteman
  • Nov 4, 2020
    1,876
    6,289
    Pennsylvania
    When all the jobs that could be outsourced... are. And when all the jobs that can be replaced by AI... are. And all the menial jobs that "Americans won't do" are filled by... I'll say imports. And the border remains open and our... "newcomers" receive federal assistance not offered to American citizens (excluding the folks directly impacted by Hurricane Helene of course because I believe they were offered $750 to restart this week)...

    Who will be left to purchase our goods & services? Who will be left to purchase our real estate. I've said this before and I'll say it again, I used to revisit my father's hometown and was often reminded of which house the butcher, gas station attendant, baker, etc. owned and now... none of those professions could support a family on a single income and... the divide is growing wider each and every year.

    There are folks that would call this progress but the jobs continue to dry up, and the purchasing power follows the same pattern... I'm not sure we've got much more "time" left in this equation and feel like we're quickly moving into a "have's & have not's" society and it's not based on much other than chosen profession and in many cases, luck & familial support.

    As an example- 2 of my very close friends have something like 20 years of experience each in the HVAC trade- absolutely salt of the earth type of people. And they know/done it all, coal, heating oil, natural gas, geothermal, etc- but one is stuck in a townhouse he purchased 15 years ago, the other is stuck renting apartments and these are VERY skilled professionals but are absolutely stuck with no upward mobility and are just stuck in a "grind" in a trade that should offer them unlimited options. 20 years each of doing HVAC- I frequently call them up for help because they just have knowledge/skills I couldn't begin to fathom. But they're stuck in otherwise "good" jobs.

    I spent the evening with one of those buddies (the one still renting and trying to buy a house of his own as he's approaching 40) and I asked him, what the heck happened with his industry. As of tonight- his answer was that many folks moved to Natural Gas over the past 10+ years and many of the companies he's worked for stuck with oil. Now both of them kept up and learned other types such as geothermal/propane/etc but their companies did not. The one I was talking to today spent a year or so in Florida and HVAC is even lower paid there then in PA (which is shocking to me because I'd have to believe that AC is of the utmost importance in a state like Florida).

    Anyway, I'm ranting now I suppose but- my point is that there's a systematic problem that's been brewing for decades here and it's moving at an exponential rate. The question remains though is once we've "optimized" every part of business transactions and nobody that's left can afford housing or the products being sold (for that matter) where will that leave us as an American Society?

    -LD
     
    There will always be taxes paid to fund the government, illegals send money abroad not to our government, there will always be domestic commerce that is ruled by the few. AI and automation are tools, like the cheap labor.

    Without taxes or commerce, they have no power, they want to keep power.

    Can't be a wheel without spokes, we are the spokes
     
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    There will always be taxes paid to fund the government, illegals send money abroad not to our government, there will always be domestic commerce that is ruled by the few. AI and automation are tools, like the cheap labor.

    Without taxes or commerce, they have no power, they want to keep power.

    Can't be a wheel without spokes, we are the spokes
    Completely agree with you- but (just speaking for myself of course) I feel like we've built a house of cards dependent on our population growing and paying taxes but the (again just my opinion here) producers are being slowly squeezed out of the tax payer arena, and the jobs in which our folks could be actively participants in their communities are shrinking at an even faster pace.

    -LD
     
    Really they are not, they are being squeezed, they are just passing the buck to the people who have the least amount of control of the situation. It's cyclic, they push and push (tax and spend, tax and spend) until the end user gets fed up with the bully and gives them a black eye, this whole scenario reminds me of Carter, Begin and Sadat, oil/fuel rationing and how we wound up with Reagan.

    The shrimps are getting tired of the black eyes, the media reports on the nerds in the corner of the playground doing nothing but commenting, once the shrimp dots the bully's eye, will the media turn around and see the fracas.
     
    When all the jobs that could be outsourced... are. And when all the jobs that can be replaced by AI... are. And all the menial jobs that "Americans won't do" are filled by... I'll say imports. And the border remains open and our... "newcomers" receive federal assistance not offered to American citizens (excluding the folks directly impacted by Hurricane Helene of course because I believe they were offered $750 to restart this week)...

    Who will be left to purchase our goods & services? Who will be left to purchase our real estate. I've said this before and I'll say it again, I used to revisit my father's hometown and was often reminded of which house the butcher, gas station attendant, baker, etc. owned and now... none of those professions could support a family on a single income and... the divide is growing wider each and every year.

    There are folks that would call this progress but the jobs continue to dry up, and the purchasing power follows the same pattern... I'm not sure we've got much more "time" left in this equation and feel like we're quickly moving into a "have's & have not's" society and it's not based on much other than chosen profession and in many cases, luck & familial support.

    As an example- 2 of my very close friends have something like 20 years of experience each in the HVAC trade- absolutely salt of the earth type of people. And they know/done it all, coal, heating oil, natural gas, geothermal, etc- but one is stuck in a townhouse he purchased 15 years ago, the other is stuck renting apartments and these are VERY skilled professionals but are absolutely stuck with no upward mobility and are just stuck in a "grind" in a trade that should offer them unlimited options. 20 years each of doing HVAC- I frequently call them up for help because they just have knowledge/skills I couldn't begin to fathom. But they're stuck in otherwise "good" jobs.

    I spent the evening with one of those buddies (the one still renting and trying to buy a house of his own as he's approaching 40) and I asked him, what the heck happened with his industry. As of tonight- his answer was that many folks moved to Natural Gas over the past 10+ years and many of the companies he's worked for stuck with oil. Now both of them kept up and learned other types such as geothermal/propane/etc but their companies did not. The one I was talking to today spent a year or so in Florida and HVAC is even lower paid there then in PA (which is shocking to me because I'd have to believe that AC is of the utmost importance in a state like Florida).

    Anyway, I'm ranting now I suppose but- my point is that there's a systematic problem that's been brewing for decades here and it's moving at an exponential rate. The question remains though is once we've "optimized" every part of business transactions and nobody that's left can afford housing or the products being sold (for that matter) where will that leave us as an American Society?

    -LD
    The biggest problem with most people suggesting that robots will take over everything is exactly this. There won't be any demand to pay for it. What that means is actually that robots will, in fact, not take over everything.

    What you will see is short run chaos, but in the long run, people are still going to exist and have jobs. It may just not be the same people doing the same jobs. Newer generations will just be doing different things. The older generations who cannot adapt will have a difficult time.
     
    While I don't disagree with much of your rant, I don't know where you live or how the men you mentioned are with their finances, but in Florida the trades are doing well. I will add the caveat that at least in my rural area. Many of my friends and family are in the HVAC, Electrical and home building trade and they are the ones with the nice houses, acreage and toys. I see a lot of people that think that 5 different streaming services, the best internet, Amazon every day, 5k dollar vacations twice a year and all the toys and most of this is funded off credit card debt. I see many people living outside of their means and then wondering how they can't get ahead. I am in no way saying our economy and our Country is not it bad shape, but we have to ourselves financially responsible also. Just my 2 cents or really1/2 A cent with inflation.
     
    My brother in law was an electrician at a solar company and was making good money, until they hired some lady to be in charge. She stopped paying the employees for driving 3 hours or more, since it was all over the state. So he quit and went back to being an electric technician.

    There’s several factors that affect an individual’s progress. Best thing to do is, find a location where there’s value for your skill and to move there (could be a different organization, a different town/city, a different county, or a different state).
     
    While I don't disagree with much of your rant, I don't know where you live or how the men you mentioned are with their finances, but in Florida the trades are doing well. I will add the caveat that at least in my rural area. Many of my friends and family are in the HVAC, Electrical and home building trade and they are the ones with the nice houses, acreage and toys. I see a lot of people that think that 5 different streaming services, the best internet, Amazon every day, 5k dollar vacations twice a year and all the toys and most of this is funded off credit card debt. I see many people living outside of their means and then wondering how they can't get ahead. I am in no way saying our economy and our Country is not it bad shape, but we have to ourselves financially responsible also. Just my 2 cents or really1/2 A cent with inflation.
    Just curious- not trying to be argumentative but how old are you? That likely will shape your perception of the economy is why I ask. When it comes to HVAC & Florida, interestingly enough, one of the folks I mentioned gave it a go in FL and much to my surprise, their skills were paid significantly lower than what they made in PA. I honestly thought they'd bring a premium just servicing A/C's in FL but that wasn't their experience.

    Again, color me surprised-

    -LD
     
    Around here we went from 3-4 large electrical shops that had 60-80 journeyman to 20 shops of 10 journeyman and 50, 1 man operations.

    Guys figured out they could make double or more the amount of money working for themselves doing the exact same thing.
     
    Just curious- not trying to be argumentative but how old are you? That likely will shape your perception of the economy is why I ask. When it comes to HVAC & Florida, interestingly enough, one of the folks I mentioned gave it a go in FL and much to my surprise, their skills were paid significantly lower than what they made in PA. I honestly thought they'd bring a premium just servicing A/C's in FL but that wasn't their experience.

    Again, color me surprised-

    -LD
    I am in my late fifties, I don't know how much they were paid comparable to the difference in cost of living? Once again I live in a rural area not near the beaches or a big city. Building and related trades are doing well here in the Panhandle, I don't know where they are getting the money but building on the beaches is strong.
     
    Just curious- not trying to be argumentative but how old are you? That likely will shape your perception of the economy is why I ask. When it comes to HVAC & Florida, interestingly enough, one of the folks I mentioned gave it a go in FL and much to my surprise, their skills were paid significantly lower than what they made in PA. I honestly thought they'd bring a premium just servicing A/C's in FL but that wasn't their experience.

    Again, color me surprised-

    -LD
    interesting. in my lg,fairly poor,somewhat low population fl county getting a plumber,electrician,ac tech is at times impossible or 3-5d waits. bills you get are staggering. time per hr charges run about $80/hr. because of growth up to this point,i have been told that none want to do anything but construction work. i don't see how any tradesman in FL can be hurting for work or income. ???