A question for the SH Brain Trust...

[LuckyDuck]

When all the jobs that could be outsourced... are. And when all the jobs that can be replaced by AI... are. And all the menial jobs that "Americans won't do" are filled by... I'll say imports. And the border remains open and our... "newcomers" receive federal assistance not offered to American citizens (excluding the folks directly impacted by Hurricane Helene of course because I believe they were offered $750 to restart this week)...

Who will be left to purchase our goods & services? Who will be left to purchase our real estate. I've said this before and I'll say it again, I used to revisit my father's hometown and was often reminded of which house the butcher, gas station attendant, baker, etc. owned and now... none of those professions could support a family on a single income and... the divide is growing wider each and every year.

There are folks that would call this progress but the jobs continue to dry up, and the purchasing power follows the same pattern... I'm not sure we've got much more "time" left in this equation and feel like we're quickly moving into a "have's & have not's" society and it's not based on much other than chosen profession and in many cases, luck & familial support.

As an example- 2 of my very close friends have something like 20 years of experience each in the HVAC trade- absolutely salt of the earth type of people. And they know/done it all, coal, heating oil, natural gas, geothermal, etc- but one is stuck in a townhouse he purchased 15 years ago, the other is stuck renting apartments and these are VERY skilled professionals but are absolutely stuck with no upward mobility and are just stuck in a "grind" in a trade that should offer them unlimited options. 20 years each of doing HVAC- I frequently call them up for help because they just have knowledge/skills I couldn't begin to fathom. But they're stuck in otherwise "good" jobs.

I spent the evening with one of those buddies (the one still renting and trying to buy a house of his own as he's approaching 40) and I asked him, what the heck happened with his industry. As of tonight- his answer was that many folks moved to Natural Gas over the past 10+ years and many of the companies he's worked for stuck with oil. Now both of them kept up and learned other types such as geothermal/propane/etc but their companies did not. The one I was talking to today spent a year or so in Florida and HVAC is even lower paid there then in PA (which is shocking to me because I'd have to believe that AC is of the utmost importance in a state like Florida).

Anyway, I'm ranting now I suppose but- my point is that there's a systematic problem that's been brewing for decades here and it's moving at an exponential rate. The question remains though is once we've "optimized" every part of business transactions and nobody that's left can afford housing or the products being sold (for that matter) where will that leave us as an American Society?

-LD

 

[Darryle]

There will always be taxes paid to fund the government, illegals send money abroad not to our government, there will always be domestic commerce that is ruled by the few. AI and automation are tools, like the cheap labor.

Without taxes or commerce, they have no power, they want to keep power.

Can't be a wheel without spokes, we are the spokes

 

[LuckyDuck]

There will always be taxes paid to fund the government, illegals send money abroad not to our government, there will always be domestic commerce that is ruled by the few. AI and automation are tools, like the cheap labor.

Without taxes or commerce, they have no power, they want to keep power.

Can't be a wheel without spokes, we are the spokes

Completely agree with you- but (just speaking for myself of course) I feel like we've built a house of cards dependent on our population growing and paying taxes but the (again just my opinion here) producers are being slowly squeezed out of the tax payer arena, and the jobs in which our folks could be actively participants in their communities are shrinking at an even faster pace.

-LD

 

[Whiskey_Tango6.5]

UBI and you will own nothing.

 

[Darryle]

Really they are not, they are being squeezed, they are just passing the buck to the people who have the least amount of control of the situation. It's cyclic, they push and push (tax and spend, tax and spend) until the end user gets fed up with the bully and gives them a black eye, this whole scenario reminds me of Carter, Begin and Sadat, oil/fuel rationing and how we wound up with Reagan.

The shrimps are getting tired of the black eyes, the media reports on the nerds in the corner of the playground doing nothing but commenting, once the shrimp dots the bully's eye, will the media turn around and see the fracas.

 

[The_Steward]

When all the jobs that could be outsourced... are. And when all the jobs that can be replaced by AI... are. And all the menial jobs that "Americans won't do" are filled by... I'll say imports. And the border remains open and our... "newcomers" receive federal assistance not offered to American citizens (excluding the folks directly impacted by Hurricane Helene of course because I believe they were offered $750 to restart this week)...

Who will be left to purchase our goods & services? Who will be left to purchase our real estate. I've said this before and I'll say it again, I used to revisit my father's hometown and was often reminded of which house the butcher, gas station attendant, baker, etc. owned and now... none of those professions could support a family on a single income and... the divide is growing wider each and every year.

There are folks that would call this progress but the jobs continue to dry up, and the purchasing power follows the same pattern... I'm not sure we've got much more "time" left in this equation and feel like we're quickly moving into a "have's & have not's" society and it's not based on much other than chosen profession and in many cases, luck & familial support.

As an example- 2 of my very close friends have something like 20 years of experience each in the HVAC trade- absolutely salt of the earth type of people. And they know/done it all, coal, heating oil, natural gas, geothermal, etc- but one is stuck in a townhouse he purchased 15 years ago, the other is stuck renting apartments and these are VERY skilled professionals but are absolutely stuck with no upward mobility and are just stuck in a "grind" in a trade that should offer them unlimited options. 20 years each of doing HVAC- I frequently call them up for help because they just have knowledge/skills I couldn't begin to fathom. But they're stuck in otherwise "good" jobs.

I spent the evening with one of those buddies (the one still renting and trying to buy a house of his own as he's approaching 40) and I asked him, what the heck happened with his industry. As of tonight- his answer was that many folks moved to Natural Gas over the past 10+ years and many of the companies he's worked for stuck with oil. Now both of them kept up and learned other types such as geothermal/propane/etc but their companies did not. The one I was talking to today spent a year or so in Florida and HVAC is even lower paid there then in PA (which is shocking to me because I'd have to believe that AC is of the utmost importance in a state like Florida).

Anyway, I'm ranting now I suppose but- my point is that there's a systematic problem that's been brewing for decades here and it's moving at an exponential rate. The question remains though is once we've "optimized" every part of business transactions and nobody that's left can afford housing or the products being sold (for that matter) where will that leave us as an American Society?

-LD

The biggest problem with most people suggesting that robots will take over everything is exactly this. There won't be any demand to pay for it. What that means is actually that robots will, in fact, not take over everything.

What you will see is short run chaos, but in the long run, people are still going to exist and have jobs. It may just not be the same people doing the same jobs. Newer generations will just be doing different things. The older generations who cannot adapt will have a difficult time.

 

[The_Steward]

UBI and you will own nothing.

They just concluded a big experiment with UBI here in the US (millions spent, I believe). It made the UBI recipients poorer compared to the control group. LOL.

 

[Keeper22]

While I don't disagree with much of your rant, I don't know where you live or how the men you mentioned are with their finances, but in Florida the trades are doing well. I will add the caveat that at least in my rural area. Many of my friends and family are in the HVAC, Electrical and home building trade and they are the ones with the nice houses, acreage and toys. I see a lot of people that think that 5 different streaming services, the best internet, Amazon every day, 5k dollar vacations twice a year and all the toys and most of this is funded off credit card debt. I see many people living outside of their means and then wondering how they can't get ahead. I am in no way saying our economy and our Country is not it bad shape, but we have to ourselves financially responsible also. Just my 2 cents or really1/2 A cent with inflation.

 

[TheHorta]

Have you considered selling extended warranties for cars?

 

[DangerDave]

My brother in law was an electrician at a solar company and was making good money, until they hired some lady to be in charge. She stopped paying the employees for driving 3 hours or more, since it was all over the state. So he quit and went back to being an electric technician.

There’s several factors that affect an individual’s progress. Best thing to do is, find a location where there’s value for your skill and to move there (could be a different organization, a different town/city, a different county, or a different state).

 

[fpgt72]

It will fall on its face at one point. It always has and it always will.

 

[LuckyDuck]

While I don't disagree with much of your rant, I don't know where you live or how the men you mentioned are with their finances, but in Florida the trades are doing well. I will add the caveat that at least in my rural area. Many of my friends and family are in the HVAC, Electrical and home building trade and they are the ones with the nice houses, acreage and toys. I see a lot of people that think that 5 different streaming services, the best internet, Amazon every day, 5k dollar vacations twice a year and all the toys and most of this is funded off credit card debt. I see many people living outside of their means and then wondering how they can't get ahead. I am in no way saying our economy and our Country is not it bad shape, but we have to ourselves financially responsible also. Just my 2 cents or really1/2 A cent with inflation.

Just curious- not trying to be argumentative but how old are you? That likely will shape your perception of the economy is why I ask. When it comes to HVAC & Florida, interestingly enough, one of the folks I mentioned gave it a go in FL and much to my surprise, their skills were paid significantly lower than what they made in PA. I honestly thought they'd bring a premium just servicing A/C's in FL but that wasn't their experience.

Again, color me surprised-

-LD

 

[chevy_man]

Around here we went from 3-4 large electrical shops that had 60-80 journeyman to 20 shops of 10 journeyman and 50, 1 man operations.

Guys figured out they could make double or more the amount of money working for themselves doing the exact same thing.

 

[Keeper22]

Just curious- not trying to be argumentative but how old are you? That likely will shape your perception of the economy is why I ask. When it comes to HVAC & Florida, interestingly enough, one of the folks I mentioned gave it a go in FL and much to my surprise, their skills were paid significantly lower than what they made in PA. I honestly thought they'd bring a premium just servicing A/C's in FL but that wasn't their experience.

Again, color me surprised-

-LD

I am in my late fifties, I don't know how much they were paid comparable to the difference in cost of living? Once again I live in a rural area not near the beaches or a big city. Building and related trades are doing well here in the Panhandle, I don't know where they are getting the money but building on the beaches is strong.

 

[mosin46]

Just curious- not trying to be argumentative but how old are you? That likely will shape your perception of the economy is why I ask. When it comes to HVAC & Florida, interestingly enough, one of the folks I mentioned gave it a go in FL and much to my surprise, their skills were paid significantly lower than what they made in PA. I honestly thought they'd bring a premium just servicing A/C's in FL but that wasn't their experience.

Again, color me surprised-

-LD

interesting. in my lg,fairly poor,somewhat low population fl county getting a plumber,electrician,ac tech is at times impossible or 3-5d waits. bills you get are staggering. time per hr charges run about $80/hr. because of growth up to this point,i have been told that none want to do anything but construction work. i don't see how any tradesman in FL can be hurting for work or income. ???

 

[Franko]

The best of us and the worst of us will always find a way. The rest of us are going to have a harder and harder time of it. I suspect at some point our elites will engineer a plague or use machines to murder most of the rest of humanity in the name of "saving the planet".

 

[Gemsbok]

We're seeing the concentration of the "means of production" into the hands of a privilaged few. And this welfare state is the natural follow-on from unfettered capitalism, communism, and socialism (even when all are more or less operating together in a given economy). Hilaire Beloc wrote about the resultant Servile State in 1912 (free on Guttenburg here). As I recall, he discribed indicators of a servile state as minimum wage, unemployment insurance, guaranteed employment, and universal health care, long before they existed.

The difficult alternative to a servile state is to have the means of production distributed amongst many, like @chevy_man 's electricians. That way more families can earn decent livings.

 

[Im2bent]

Just curious- not trying to be argumentative but how old are you? That likely will shape your perception of the economy is why I ask. When it comes to HVAC & Florida, interestingly enough, one of the folks I mentioned gave it a go in FL and much to my surprise, their skills were paid significantly lower than what they made in PA. I honestly thought they'd bring a premium just servicing A/C's in FL but that wasn't their experience.

Again, color me surprised-

-LD

Tell your friend to stop working for someone else.

 

[chevy_man]

interesting. in my lg,fairly poor,somewhat low population fl county getting a plumber,electrician,ac tech is at times impossible or 3-5d waits. bills you get are staggering. time per hr charges run about $80/hr. because of growth up to this point,i have been told that none want to do anything but construction work. i don't see how any tradesman in FL can be hurting for work or income. ???

I'm charging $146/hr. Plumbers are $200/hr, HVAC is $130/hr.


Still can't find guys that want to work, offering $20+/hr to start as a laborer, and in 4 years be $40+/hr.

Have to charge that much to pay for taxes. Leftovers go to trucks, health insurance, paid vacation, 401k match, etc.

 

[lonegunman762x51]

America will be destroyed. Because various union fucks and closet communists here will suck Kamala cock and vote for her. Yeah, this contract nets dock working cock suckers a huge raise, in ten years they will all be replaced by immigrants playing computer crane games if all goes well.

Plenty of good jobs exist, most people don't want them. The underground economy will grow and like most of commie and socialist Europe 60% of personal transactions will be cash or trade. This is why a "cashless" economy is the buzzword of fucktards around the globe. Here is the thing about most jobs. An extensive amount of automation can be put into the job but in the end you need people to run the show and you need people to fix all the shit the computer fucks up. Jobs will exist that pay well and require skills and only people willing to work will have them.

We hired DEI fuckers all the time. They do 10% of the work and middle aged white men do 90% of the work and we all get the same pay. I did not make as much as a coke snorting dock worker but I did okay by any standard. The DEI guys simply walked off when shit got hard, they decided suddenly to go home for the day or they simply slow-played the order or clearance until shift change. No consequences for any of them. You get mad and yell at them, HR is on the way. So you say Hi, be cordial and most of the time you pretend you are alone.

I had to drive to the complete other side of the project to relieve an operator one morning, sitting 20 feet away from the guy I relieved was a "test operator" who's job was to stay with any maintenance guy doing equipment testing all the time. These two guys have the same skills, only one of them does 90% of the work and the other one is the "test operator" for the exact same pay. The minority was the test operator, he utterly fucking refused to relieve the plant operator for even 30 minutes and when asked, he got shitty and gave the "I DONT WORK FOR YOU!!!"

So I drove five miles and relieved the operator and missed my morning tasks with linemen, the dispatcher called and found me and asked why wasn't the fucking test operator doing this bullshit. I told him, the minority doesn't work for me and thus cannot be asked to help. It took five levels of management to find a guy with balls enough to ask this fuck to contribute. Six months later, I voted fuck this and retired.

The divide is growing wider because of fucking democrats. They want foreign scum because they will eat beans and fuck their own kids and live in squalor. These peasants cannot read, barely write and have lived for generations in poverty. They are happy with a block of free cheese and a shitty govt owned apartment and shitty medical. They are the future of America.

Every piece of shit, ball tugging democrat on the hide is responsible for the demise of America with every one of their democrat votes. Every cunt who votes for a democrat does his or her part to destroy the constitution, end gun rights and make America a peasant filled shithole.

Remember that stupid movie where Jennifer Lawerance sucks cocks and shoots arrows at people in some stupid game? That is democrat dream world. The elite live in luxury cities and everyone else suffers while they laugh.

 

[Dirty D]

When all the jobs that could be outsourced... are. And when all the jobs that can be replaced by AI... are. And all the menial jobs that "Americans won't do" are filled by... I'll say imports. And the border remains open and our... "newcomers" receive federal assistance not offered to American citizens (excluding the folks directly impacted by Hurricane Helene of course because I believe they were offered $750 to restart this week)...

Who will be left to purchase our goods & services? Who will be left to purchase our real estate. I've said this before and I'll say it again, I used to revisit my father's hometown and was often reminded of which house the butcher, gas station attendant, baker, etc. owned and now... none of those professions could support a family on a single income and... the divide is growing wider each and every year.

There are folks that would call this progress but the jobs continue to dry up, and the purchasing power follows the same pattern... I'm not sure we've got much more "time" left in this equation and feel like we're quickly moving into a "have's & have not's" society and it's not based on much other than chosen profession and in many cases, luck & familial support.

As an example- 2 of my very close friends have something like 20 years of experience each in the HVAC trade- absolutely salt of the earth type of people. And they know/done it all, coal, heating oil, natural gas, geothermal, etc- but one is stuck in a townhouse he purchased 15 years ago, the other is stuck renting apartments and these are VERY skilled professionals but are absolutely stuck with no upward mobility and are just stuck in a "grind" in a trade that should offer them unlimited options. 20 years each of doing HVAC- I frequently call them up for help because they just have knowledge/skills I couldn't begin to fathom. But they're stuck in otherwise "good" jobs.

I spent the evening with one of those buddies (the one still renting and trying to buy a house of his own as he's approaching 40) and I asked him, what the heck happened with his industry. As of tonight- his answer was that many folks moved to Natural Gas over the past 10+ years and many of the companies he's worked for stuck with oil. Now both of them kept up and learned other types such as geothermal/propane/etc but their companies did not. The one I was talking to today spent a year or so in Florida and HVAC is even lower paid there then in PA (which is shocking to me because I'd have to believe that AC is of the utmost importance in a state like Florida).

Anyway, I'm ranting now I suppose but- my point is that there's a systematic problem that's been brewing for decades here and it's moving at an exponential rate. The question remains though is once we've "optimized" every part of business transactions and nobody that's left can afford housing or the products being sold (for that matter) where will that leave us as an American Society?

-LD

Read Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kyosaki and pay particular attention to what he says about being an employee vs a business owner. HVAC pay is eroding here in Phoenix as private equity groups buy up all of the HVAC companies that they can, I know a guy that worked for a great company owned by two brothers who ended up selling to a PE group for a mountain of cash. A year after the sale while the company was doing more business than ever before his manager told him that he either needed to take a pay cut or a severance package. Before the manager could finish the question he said that he would take the severance package. Apparently the PE groups HR was trying this on several positions and the company had a mass resignation and the manager asked him to stay and he told them to get fucked, unfortunately for him he took a job with a different company. I got laid off last fall and started doing side jobs and installing ductless mini splits. When I worked for an HVAC company I got 20% of what I sold, now that I work for myself I get 80% of what I sell and charge less than any of the companies. I should have listed my boss and all of the office staff as dependents on last years taxes because I was supporting them, now I’m one truck Chuck and I make more money than ever and charge my customers less, go figure…

 

[Cody S]

purchasing power is gone. 100$ can barely buy you a nice evening in 2024. I used to work damn near all day for 100$, now i make that in 3 hours but so does everyone else. they aren't trying to optimize the US, they're trying to fundamentally change it.
I make more money from democrats, I vote republican because i like the rest of you guys doing well too.

 

[Ronws]

I have the answer and it didn't take any brain power, thank goodness. I only have three brain cells and they don't always fire at the same time.

If the people we have put in office are not doing what we need them to do, then they need to be removed from office.

 

[LuckyDuck]

The biggest problem with most people suggesting that robots will take over everything is exactly this. There won't be any demand to pay for it. What that means is actually that robots will, in fact, not take over everything.

What you will see is short run chaos, but in the long run, people are still going to exist and have jobs. It may just not be the same people doing the same jobs. Newer generations will just be doing different things. The older generations who cannot adapt will have a difficult time.

While I respect your opinion, I'm not sure I agree. I'm reading it as there's a premise in your statement that the economy will self-correct/adjust but I'm not sure if I'm seeing that myself (at least in my area). I do agree with you that it "should" be short run chaos, but it just seems to me to be... IDK, bigger than that. At least as I see it.

To illustrate my point, I remember growing up knowing where the gas station attendant lived (not the gas station owner to be clear), the butcher's house, retail worker's/grocers/the seamstress' house etc. Now those jobs surely still exist but even with several roommates and ignoring their desire to have a family of their own, I'd argue that homeownership is abundantly out of reach for those professions. Even the "skilled professions" such as accountants, business managers, actuaries, and the like are significantly struggling to put a roof over their head that they can call their own (ignoring that whole topic of never actually owning a home due to taxes which I completely agree with).

I don't mean to ramble but I reckon my point is while the purchasing power continues to nosedive for Americans, we're left with a society that each year/decade/generation is moving the wrong direction is all and eventually (maybe sooner than later) find where the point intersects of what a society can afford/is willing to borrow (I'd argue that's the stage we're in now/credit) can no longer keep up with the services and goods being sold to said society and I'm not sure that once we breach that point it's going to result in a proverbial "happy ending".

I hope I'm wrong with that but just stating an opinion from my perspective is all. Thanks for chiming in though.

-LD

 

[LuckyDuck]

While I don't disagree with much of your rant, I don't know where you live or how the men you mentioned are with their finances, but in Florida the trades are doing well. I will add the caveat that at least in my rural area. Many of my friends and family are in the HVAC, Electrical and home building trade and they are the ones with the nice houses, acreage and toys. I see a lot of people that think that 5 different streaming services, the best internet, Amazon every day, 5k dollar vacations twice a year and all the toys and most of this is funded off credit card debt. I see many people living outside of their means and then wondering how they can't get ahead. I am in no way saying our economy and our Country is not it bad shape, but we have to ourselves financially responsible also. Just my 2 cents or really1/2 A cent with inflation.

I suspect with my HVAC friend that went to FL, as with many things, the timing can likely be a factor. FL just saw an incredible growth during/after COVID and the economy/markets responded accordingly but the wages (at least as of 2 years ago) didn't catch up according to my buddy. But you raise good points and honestly that makes me scratch my head as well because I'm baffled how poorly timed his entrance into FL was when I thought he'd be cleaning house.

 

[LuckyDuck]

Have you considered selling extended warranties for cars?

 

[LuckyDuck]

interesting. in my lg,fairly poor,somewhat low population fl county getting a plumber,electrician,ac tech is at times impossible or 3-5d waits. bills you get are staggering. time per hr charges run about $80/hr. because of growth up to this point,i have been told that none want to do anything but construction work. i don't see how any tradesman in FL can be hurting for work or income. ???

Oh I hear ya, that was my understanding as well. But, and I guess this is a Kardashian sized but, without having a dog in the fight myself, it sounds like the owners are collecting much of that wage and not so much the technician (of which both of my buddies mentioned are) doing the work. That said- they're also not paying for business operating expenses (such as their service vehicles and tools as an example) so my comment is not directed towards saying that they work for "greedy business owners" just that, and only that, without being business owners themselves, these are not entry level technicians and have twenty years each in their trade and both are seemingly "stuck" in their present positions for differing reasons, but the lack of upward mobility is... well concerning to me because I'd argue it represents a stagnation of American Society that's been occurring for decades with no end in sight.

-LD

 

[TheBigCountry]

interesting. in my lg,fairly poor,somewhat low population fl county getting a plumber,electrician,ac tech is at times impossible or 3-5d waits. bills you get are staggering. time per hr charges run about $80/hr. because of growth up to this point,i have been told that none want to do anything but construction work. i don't see how any tradesman in FL can be hurting for work or income. ???

We aren’t. My phone rings constantly for work, and I average 50+ hours a week…

Work is work and FL pays good to be HVAC and even more so when you mess with NH3

Someone’s been smoking the pipe again