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Afghanistan

#3
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mustafa</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Yeah, it's pretty well f***'d over there. I have a very good idea of what could be done to fix it, but it won't be. Not politically expedient.

Very sad. </div></div>

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If we could get the media out and get the Marines to keep their cameras in the rear we might have a shot at getting it done.
laugh.gif

 
#4
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Seth8541</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mustafa</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Yeah, it's pretty well f***'d over there. I have a very good idea of what could be done to fix it, but it won't be. Not politically expedient.

Very sad. </div></div>

grin.gif
If we could get the media out and get the Marines to keep their cameras in the rear we might have a shot at getting it done.
laugh.gif

</div></div>

Ha! No kidding!

Actually, while I do believe there are some military problems (COIN people...DO it!), I think the BIGGEST issues are WAY outside the pervue of the armed forces. The Taliban wouldn't be resurgent if the Afghan government ACTUALLY governed! And of course, we religiously back them because they staged a phony election to legitimize their robbing the people blind of the money WE send over to ehlp them....
 
#5
Re: Afghanistan

Our military has dealt with the insurgency at a tactical level. Through repetition, the tactics used have added up to something coherent enough that we now call it a strategy.

The brightest academic theorists of warfare have, over the last twenty years, tried to force chaos theory to fit their explanations of mobile war. But those who have fought it know the truth: That 'irregular warfare', whatever that is, develops a strategic norm of its own.

The real military debate should be about how to deal with the war's increasing complexity. This question gets little recognition because it is not a glamorous subject: It does not involve weapons or killing. Instead it requires an understanding of the intricacies of culture and community.

That is why the key to winning is not about simply killing people, declaring victory, and going home. Because each element of the war is inseparable from the rest: We cannot afford to make the mistake of believing that Marines pissing can be separated from Marines killing. They are both part of the fight.
 
#6
Re: Afghanistan

The Afghans have two choices:

1. A corrupt government that does not provide protection or economic opportunity, a judicial system where bribes are the norm and justice is not provided, and a military and law enforcement that are corrupt, unprofessional, high on drugs, and filled with criminals and liars. All while being mostly dependent financially, logistically, and politically by a coalition of external forces that are looking for every opportunity to get out and save face

2. Fanatical murderers and enforcers of sharia law who are willing to play the long game, who don't have a time-line or projected exit, who do have the support of a significant portion of the people and hold the rest of the population in fear.

We've backed the wrong team with regards to the current Afghan regime. We don't have the will to play the long game and we are not dealing with an industrious and educated people like Germany and Japan.

It sure isn't pretty no matter how you cut it. I hope we learn from these lessons and apply what we've learned in the future - hopes I'm sure the Korea vets and Vietnam vets also have held.
 
#7
Re: Afghanistan

Should just ask the russians to come on back over......
smile.gif


We were talking about it this morning in the office here. If it wasn't for US money and other Allies picking up the tab for all these cunts and building shit here this place would still be packing shit primarily on the backs of donkeys (BTW I still see no fewer than 15 donkeys a day on the street). There is one reason these countries are stuck so many years behind us and it relates to a book... Every where I look driving through the city I see US dollars at work.

I was at a meeting yesterday in regards to money coming up in the next few years for infrastructure here. It was somewhere in the 1.5-2.0B dollars a year. Basically dumping money into a old horse thats on its way to a 45 shell to the head. There is no reason to spend any money on this place over what it cost to do simple carpet bombing runs in the major cities and small villages (especially the villages).
 
#8
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Poke</div><div class="ubbcode-body">There is one reason these countries are stuck so many years behind us and it relates to a book...</div></div>

Which book would that be?
 
#9
Re: Afghanistan

It's like going into lunatic asylum and try to convince its occupants (not doctors mind you
smile.gif
) to "sober up" "shape up" "shake it out" "get a reality check". An exercise in futility and the final question is, is the one trying to convince lunatics out of their misery also an idiot?


Just get out and leave them to themselves as anything else requires stronger stomach western society can muster...
 
#10
Re: Afghanistan

But the US can simply NOT fail at this! We have to show the world that we could do what the soviets couldn't, or else we're no better than them...
...plus people are making a shit ton of money off it!

I agree with all of you. There is absolutely no reason for it at all.
 
#11
Re: Afghanistan

Your right on the Failure aspect of it but what would you consider a victory? Right now we are basically propping up an entire economy in a country full of shitheads when we are failing at home.
 
#14
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: CE1371</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Two US officers killed yesterday.... </div></div>

This is the problem, ANYONE who would riot and kill over a F@cking book, or a stupid insulting cartoon. Has no place in a civilized society, I say we publish monthly cartoons and stories of burnt quran's, and then just mark all the "busy spots" that pop up on the map and drop a few bombs on it. Until the busy spots quit showing up.

I agree with Graham, it will not be until the end of this generation that the problems could even begin to be corrected. Unfortunately it seems like we are doomed with the task of finishing this generation off one at a time, and at the unacceptable cost of one of our soldiers every so often.
 
#15
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: coldboremiracle</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: CE1371</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Two US officers killed yesterday.... </div></div>

This is the problem, ANYONE who would riot and kill over a F@cking book, or a stupid insulting cartoon. Has no place in a civilized society, I say we publish monthly cartoons and stories of burnt quran's, and then just mark all the "busy spots" that pop up on the map and drop a few bombs on it. Until the busy spots quit showing up.

I agree with Graham, it will not be until the end of this generation that the problems could even begin to be corrected. Unfortunately it seems like we are doomed with the task of finishing this generation off one at a time, and at the unacceptable cost of one of our soldiers every so often. </div></div>

Part of the problem is that the people at the center of all the shit over there are their equivalents to our Westboro idiots, even if there's a greater percentage of them among Southwest Asians. And part of it is that the poverty is so prevalent that religion becomes a prize possession, in much the same way that skin color does for others, which is something that we <span style="font-style: italic">can</span> understand, since it's still so widespread here.

What's more important than the physical nature of any religious text are the ideas that are embodied within. Part of the issue with eastern religions is that the treatment of these texts can become the center of wild controversy. From my own faith: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4747877607223514949 I know for a fact that real desecration of ours (beyond mere disrespect) would get you a thumpin', at least.
 
#16
Re: Afghanistan

The genocidal tone in this thread is a getting a bit high. Pump the breaks on that rhetoric a bit. Look, 30 years of war wreaks a hell of a lot of havoc on a society. If you're fed up, support immediate withdrawal. It's as simple as that.

By and large, the Taliban is made up of the Pashtun tribes while most of the Tajiks and Hazara either work with GIRoA or want to be left alone. Speaking about "Afghanistan" is way too damn general to be useful. There is no one war in Afghanistan. There is a separate war being fought in nearly every Pashtun district throughout the country. If the war itself is local, how successful do you think a national strategy is? You got it... it's shit.

There are more than two choices for governing Afghanistan, not just Taliban vs GIRoA. If the only choices were those two options, how did the Afghans ever manage before 1994? It is our own American idiocy at trying to create a centralized state in a historically decentralized region that's caused much of this mess. Frankly, the third option to the Taliban vs GIRoA debate is the most pragmatic, and simultaneously ignored option in terms of governance, rule of law, and local conflict resolution. We should have been trying to understand how informal systems work in Pashtun areas and leveraged that until GIRoA is strong enough to fill that gap. NATO has essentially created an enormous expectation of GIRoA fulfilling all the needs of the population, while GIRoA has no capability to: 1. protect the population, 2. resolve local disputes occurring largely over land ownership claims and water management, and 3. create a system that somehow balances informal governance traditions with a modern, service-delivering democracy.

Afghanistan is a tough place to work, but it's far more difficult if you fundamentally misunderstand the dynamics at play. To get an idea of where things stand in the Pashtun areas, give this report a read: TB detainees on war progress. If the current state of the war isn't worth 30 pages of reading, then I'd say you're probably not really interested in this topic in the first place. If that's the case, this country is certainly not worth the vastly expensive carpet bombing campaign that some have suggested.

What's my solution? Dissolve the Durrand Line, create a unified Pashtunistan with Pakistan tribal areas, and let the Hazaras, Uzbeks, and Tajiks figure out a way to make this new Afghanistan work since they're the ones that largely support our concept of how Afghanistan should be. Let the Pashtuns rule themselves, as they essentially are fighting to do anyway (while sending a hearty "FUCK YOU" to Pakistan). Keep an eye on them through SOF and send a drone with hellfires their way if they decide to harbor terrorists, one of the few tactics that's gone well over here. Then wash our hands, and bring our boys home.

If we could have killed our way out of this way, we would have by now. If we could have spent our way out of this war, we would have by now. This is a political war that does not have a military solution, no matter how badly we want it to. Now what was that Clausewitz was saying... "War is the continuation of Politik by other means."
 
#17
Re: Afghanistan

What people don't realize when discussing Afghanistan is that in places like Kabul that is where the wealthy Afghans were before the wars. In almost all of the rest of Afghanistan there are few resources and life is hard even for the upper to middle class Afghan the poor generally have a hard time even supporting their families(which is why it is so prevalant for the taliban to pay poor farmers to do their dirty work). All the Pictures of Kabul from the 60's and 70's do not really represent the majority of how the country is or was. In reality most Afghans have almost no loyalty to their country, areas are governed by tribes and clans not the central government. Who is in power in Kabul has little affect on how the common Afghan is going to feed his family or make a living.
I think the key to any modern society (of any religious majority) is education. The reason that Afghanistan did not rebound after the soviet invasion is because a small sect of extremiests the Taliban used the termoil to assert themselves then threaten the population into doing as they saw fit. They destroyed schools and instituted islamic law to the extreme. The majority of the population in small villages saw little change except that the Taliban would extort money and goods from them to further their cause. This went on untill 2001. At first we were fighting the Taliban and AQ, now we are fighting the local INS, mostly people who just want us gone. Occasionally there will be the foreign fighter that wants to fight Americans, these people will usually later become higher AQ leaders but are doing a "tour" fighting Christian Infedels. There are still are still Taliban, but there are also a lot of criminal warlords that fight for money and for money will fight for whomever pays.
As for the Local GOV and MIL the Afghan soldiers have little to fight for besides a paycheck. Most are very poor, completely uneducated, and have little loyalty to the country or their unit. Unlike our Military where soldiers fight and die for each other the Afghans have very loose affiliation with the unit which they serve. In addition to that they are generally very undiciplined, all the funny rumors are true, and have very little respect for a command structure. Also the ANA and ANP are usually targeted and murdered by the Taliban and warlords for helping the occupying force.
All of this compounded means a very tough prospect of restoring order. Imagine if a forign power invaded America, and dictated to you your daily life, would you not try to make them reconsider their strategy by means of force. I know I would. All in all the only way to make a withdrawl is to educate the population. To do this you must gain the trust of the population, this in not done by applying force with an occupying military. This is accomplished by helping to improve agraculture and industry which will improve the average Afghan's way of life. Also we need to help the Afghan's develop their newly found mineral resources, but be completely transparent about it there can be no question that we are after their resources like with oil in Iraq. If all of that is accomplished it will put Afghanistan on the right track, and give us a way to withdraw and actually feel good about helping another nation prosper.
Just some of my thoughts on the issue. And yes I have spent a considerable amount of time in the country.
-Adam
 
#20
Re: Afghanistan

ZLBubba thanks for the great post. The TB Detainees report is very informative and a real eye opener. I admittedly had only a basic understanding of the War in Afghanistan. The report definitely gives one a better and more educated perspective of what is actually going on and what US and Allied forces are up against. As uneducated as it may seem or sound my position had been that we needed to stay there until the country was for the most part stable and the Taliban eliminated or weakened to the point of no longer being a major threat. I am definitely not of that opinion anymore!
 
#21
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ZLBubba</div><div class="ubbcode-body">If you're fed up, support immediate withdrawal. It's as simple as that. </div></div>


I only wish it was that simple.

3/4 of America wants these wars and globe trotting over, yet we've escalated our involvement with no end in sight.

Maybe our "leaders" can justify why we're still there, but I sure as hell can't.
 
#22
Re: Afghanistan

Both the military and civilian folks working and fighting out in the field have done much good. In eleven years of war, we've raised the average life expectancy from 47 years to 62 years. That's progress. Also, millions more children are going to school now than they were in 2001. Another great thing we did for Afghanistan.

But I ask you, has stability increased? The fundamental principle that even the smartest people have forgotten is this: development cannot precede stability. It simply doesn't work. Despite all the health clinics we've built, many sit empty because ANSF cannot provide the security for the Ministry of Public Health to send doctors, nurses, and midwives to the clinic. Many schools now house goats and/or Taliban because, once again, ANSF cannot project security, and the local teachers (who haven't been paid in years) have been scared shitless from night letters from the local Taliban cell.

Despite the good deeds we have done here, the fundamental issue is that no one is taking up arms because they lack basic services, or because they're poor. Billions of people throughout the world lack basic services and live in poverty, but they're not taking up arms. Why? Because somehow on a their local level, the community has figured out a way to function to a communally acceptable level. Being poor and without services is the historical norm for the vast majority of Afghanistan. Thirty years of war has broken the traditional methods of Pashtun villages of resolving disputes, managing resources, and policing themselves (usually through alliances with other clans and warlords). Now we've got to get the Pashtuns to figure out if they can recreate traditional norms, or if they've got to find a new normal. At the village and district levels, GIRoA is simply not an option anymore.
 
#23
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Guy Montag</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ZLBubba</div><div class="ubbcode-body">If you're fed up, support immediate withdrawal. It's as simple as that. </div></div>


I only wish it was that simple.

3/4 of America wants these wars and globe trotting over, yet we've escalated our involvement with no end in sight.

Maybe our "leaders" can justify why we're still there, but I sure as hell can't.


</div></div>

Come on, man. Almost every candidate from both parties over the last three presidential cycles has been hawkish with foreign policy. Hell, on these forums we see threads damn near every day about bombing Iran or ousting Kim Jong-un, or some other nonsense. We've created a national climate where no public leader can openly denounce war for fear of seeming to be a pussy, or worse, anti-military. It's craziness, but we've made this mess ourselves.

At some point, we may have to realize that maybe the most pro-military policy out there is to say, "You brave souls have fought longer than any previous generation. You deserve a break. We will not send you to war unless our sovereign territory is threatened."
 
#24
Re: Afghanistan

ZLBubba, nice read, and thank you. Most folks don't get the idea that tribes don't really give a rat's ass about arbitrary borders that were established by European outsiders whose administrators were desperate to carve things into different colored tracts of land on a map so that they could cope. Wherever they are, Pashtuns, aside from Islam, don't give a shit about anything but Pashtuns first, then subtribe clans next, and then their families, and then themselves. Nationalism is a luxury for whoever the West has propped up for the time being.
 
#25
Re: Afghanistan

One thing you guys are kinda missing, ZLBubba hit on it in his last post, is that the "tribes" don't really exist like they used to. ZLbubba hit the nail on the head though, after 30 years of conflict which saw the intentional targeting of local level "tribal" governance, there isn't an "old way" to uphold. The soviets killed tribal leaders and the Taliban supplanted or killed tribal leaders.

I disagree with the assertion that Pashtun's in general fight us because they have something else going on though. Pashtun's fight us because the Taliban have a monopoly on violence in their regions. The Taliban IS the government in those areas because ISAF refuses to engage in REAL COIN operations that would see ISAF at the lowest levels living and patrolling with ANSF. Not just swinging by the ANSF base, grabbing a truckload of them and using them as an RCP, but actually mentoring them and making them better through example. ISAF spends too much time THINKING they are safe behind their tons of HESCO barriers instead of tying their safety to that of the locals. Just because you put a base on the hill overlooking the village does not mean the village is secure. You have to have a presence in the village all the time! You can't drive through once or twice a day and call it secure. The Taliban are going to waltz in at night, terrorize the people, and monopolize violence and the ISAF troops on the hill won't even know it's happened until it's too late.
The trick to winning in Afghanistan is providing security for the population (which the Taliban currently do in many places), creating economic growth (there are a TON of resources that could make Afghanistan a world player in short order), and educating the children. Then, in 40 years or so, when this whole warlord generation is dead and you are left with a bunch of people that have grown up going to school, safe in their own homes, and with enough taste of success to whet their appetites...THEN you've won. THEN you will see the people demand democracy and freedom and all that other stuff we are trying JAM down their throats right now. They aren't ready for it. Just protect them right now. The rest will follow.

Oh. And shitcan the government. Those guys have outlived thier usefulness. Let the Army (under our supervision) take over. We already know who all the good officers and bad officers are, just ask the ETTs. Shoot the bad ones, promote the good ones, and pick a strong, smart general that will LISTEN to take over the country.
 
#26
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Veer_G</div><div class="ubbcode-body">ZLBubba, nice read, and thank you. Most folks don't get the idea that tribes don't really give a rat's ass about arbitrary borders that were established by European outsiders whose administrators were desperate to carve things into different colored tracts of land on a map so that they could cope. Wherever they are, Pashtuns, aside from Islam, don't give a shit about anything but Pashtuns first, then subtribe clans next, and then their families, and then themselves. Nationalism is a luxury for whoever the West has propped up for the time being.</div></div>

The Pashuns have a saying, "Me against my brothers; me and my brothers against our cousins; me, my brothers,and my cousins against the world."

While the whole tribal system may be more defunct than not these days, family ties run deep in ALL of Afghanistan will ALL people.
 
#27
Re: Afghanistan

To Mustafa's point, you can see the sheer breadth of Taliban control in Pashtun areas in the detainee report. The Taliban are providing security, conflict resolution, and conservative education to such acceptable levels that local villages would rather work with them than have ISAF push them out. An ISAF patrol often means a firefight, and that means the TB will run to the nearest qalat, the crew served machine gun will open up on the the insurgent's position, and while we get the bad guy, we tear up the house and/or inadvertently inflict harm to civilians. Now we're that much more unwelcome in that village, and the Taliban can drive a wedge between GIRoA/CF and the population.

Also, despite all the rhetoric, real COIN implementation in Afghanistan by ISAF has been spotty at best. I think most people used FM 3-24 for extra shit tickets when the baby wipes ran out.
 
#28
Re: Afghanistan

Something that happened to me once and I've read about it happening in other places as well, is that the villagers will thank us for kicking out the Taliban (they aren't well liked, but they DO provide services), but then ask that the ANP not be allowed back into their village. Of course at this point, the ISAF commander says, "But they are the legitimate government of Afghanistan!" and while I'm trying to hide my chuckles about such an outrageous claim, the villagers are telling us that THEY invited the Taliban into the village to get RID of the ANP! The Taliban don't beat people up for money and kidnap and rape their little boys....
 
#29
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ZLBubba</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Come on, man. Almost every candidate from both parties over the last three presidential cycles has been hawkish with foreign policy. Hell, on these forums we see threads damn near every day about bombing Iran or ousting Kim Jong-un, or some other nonsense. We've created a national climate where no public leader can openly denounce war for fear of seeming to be a pussy, or worse, anti-military. It's craziness, but we've made this mess ourselves. </div></div>

No disagreement there Bubba, the left/right paradigm is strictly for tourists, it ignores the larger truth you describe.

There's far too many Hawks on both sides of the aisle, but the folly of the past decade at war has not gone unnoticed.

The times are changing, slowly for sure, but we're witnessing a major shift in my opinion.

Talk to somebody under 40 and ask them what they think of these wars.

I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by the awareness of a lot younger folks who're done with these endless crusades.

The "kids" get it, they realize our foreign policy is psychotic, not to mention unaffordable any longer.

Your comments on the changes to the tribal structure of Afghanistan are very interesting, thanks for the input!
 
#30
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ZLBubba</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

There are more than two choices for governing Afghanistan, not just Taliban vs GIRoA. If the only choices were those two options, how did the Afghans ever manage before 1994? It is our own American idiocy at trying to create a centralized state in a historically decentralized region that's caused much of this mess. Frankly, the third option to the Taliban vs GIRoA debate is the most pragmatic, and simultaneously ignored option in terms of governance, rule of law, and local conflict resolution. We should have been trying to understand how informal systems work in Pashtun areas and leveraged that until GIRoA is strong enough to fill that gap. NATO has essentially created an enormous expectation of GIRoA fulfilling all the needs of the population, while GIRoA has no capability to: 1. protect the population, 2. resolve local disputes occurring largely over land ownership claims and water management, and 3. create a system that somehow balances informal governance traditions with a modern, service-delivering democracy.

Afghanistan is a tough place to work, but it's far more difficult if you fundamentally misunderstand the dynamics at play. To get an idea of where things stand in the Pashtun areas, give this report a read: TB detainees on war progress. If the current state of the war isn't worth 30 pages of reading, then I'd say you're probably not really interested in this topic in the first place. If that's the case, this country is certainly not worth the vastly expensive carpet bombing campaign that some have suggested.

What's my solution? Dissolve the Durrand Line, create a unified Pashtunistan with Pakistan tribal areas, and let the Hazaras, Uzbeks, and Tajiks figure out a way to make this new Afghanistan work since they're the ones that largely support our concept of how Afghanistan should be. Let the Pashtuns rule themselves, as they essentially are fighting to do anyway (while sending a hearty "FUCK YOU" to Pakistan). Keep an eye on them through SOF and send a drone with hellfires their way if they decide to harbor terrorists, one of the few tactics that's gone well over here. Then wash our hands, and bring our boys home.

If we could have killed our way out of this way, we would have by now. If we could have spent our way out of this war, we would have by now. This is a political war that does not have a military solution, no matter how badly we want it to. Now what was that Clausewitz was saying... "War is the continuation of Politik by other means."



</div></div>

This is on target I think and in hindsight we should have focused on fucking up Al Qada and the Taliban after 9/11 and then marched out and kept tabs. The fantasy of imposing centralized governments didn't start with us, look at the history of Iraq too.
 
#31
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mustafa</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Pashtun's fight us because the Taliban have a monopoly on violence in their regions. The Taliban IS the government in those areas because ISAF refuses to engage in REAL COIN operations that would see ISAF at the lowest levels living and patrolling with ANSF. Not just swinging by the ANSF base, grabbing a truckload of them and using them as an RCP, but actually mentoring them and making them better through example. ISAF spends too much time THINKING they are safe behind their tons of HESCO barriers instead of tying their safety to that of the locals. Just because you put a base on the hill overlooking the village does not mean the village is secure... Just protect them right now. The rest will follow.</div></div>Agreed. And well said.

You really should do this stuff for a living.
laugh.gif
 
#32
Re: Afghanistan

It's a shame none have the stomach for scortched earth policies where they are needed. Me, I would obliterate every single leadership position in every single Islamic state. Then I would obliterate anything that resembled anything that likes to celebrate victory dances in the streets when someone else dies, but cries offence when it is one of theirs. When that was done, well, anything left that looked like an Imam that was howling for anything remotely looking like revenge, uprising, etc would be obliterated.
That or just feed them all bacon. Bacon is the key to world peace. Everyone who loves bacon is usually peaceful. Ya ever notice there are only two peoples who do not love bacon here on this planet? Jews and the Muslims. If they ate bacon, there would be world peace.
wink.gif
 
#33
Re: Afghanistan

Genocide and brutality is not a great way to have any stability at all, sure you get a bit of peace and calm for a bit, at the cost of undying and unrelenting hatred for centuries. Americans just don't understand for the most part people who are willing to carry on an unrelenting fight for generations win or loose.

Think of it this way, the Jews and the Arabs have been fighting for 4000+ years over whether the first born son or the first son of the primary wife was the one who should have gotten the birthright. Do you really want to play in that game? Sure you can kill tons of their leaders and mullas, who will then go down in their history as martyrs (Ever wonder why Shite and Sunni like killing each other even more than outsiders?)

Perhaps maybe not go making trouble in countries that you don't need to be in & don't base your entire globaly economy on products that are most easily found in the most crazy parts of the world. It could be easily argued that the past 30 years of recent trouble in the middle east were more or less at least partially caused by things the Allies did blowing up in their faces later on.

A great line from the movie Ghandi is: "Mr. Kinnoch, I beg you to accept that there is no people on Earth who would not prefer their own bad government to the good government of an alien power"

If you got back over the past 200 years of modern history and ignore all the propaganda, it get's pretty obvious that nothing good comes of trying to play god of the sandbox.

That being said, I'm pretty sure after the next 2 wars we are about to have in the middle east, all the muslims will be pretty sure it is the West vs Islam and then life will get rather unplesant, not to mention some other players may not also like one set of players controlling the whole middle east.
 
#35
Re: Afghanistan

With regard to Afghanistan, I prefer Niven's fourth Law:

F × S = k. The product of Freedom and Security is a constant. To gain more freedom of thought and/or action, you must give up some security, and vice versa.

And the sixth:

It is easier to destroy than create.

And the eigth:

History never repeats itself.

And sixteenth:

There is no cause so right that one cannot find a fool following it.

 
#36
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Graham</div><div class="ubbcode-body">With regard to Afghanistan, I prefer Niven's fourth Law:

F × S = k. The product of Freedom and Security is a constant. To gain more freedom of thought and/or action, you must give up some security, and vice versa. </div></div>


Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.

-- Thomas Jefferson.
 
#37
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Switchblade</div><div class="ubbcode-body">It's a shame none have the stomach for scortched earth policies where they are needed. Me, I would obliterate every single leadership position in every single Islamic state. Then I would obliterate anything that resembled anything that likes to celebrate victory dances in the streets when someone else dies, but cries offence when it is one of theirs. When that was done, well, anything left that looked like an Imam that was howling for anything remotely looking like revenge, uprising, etc would be obliterated.
That or just feed them all bacon. Bacon is the key to world peace. Everyone who loves bacon is usually peaceful. Ya ever notice there are only two peoples who do not love bacon here on this planet? Jews and the Muslims. If they ate bacon, there would be world peace.
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</div></div>

Sure worked well for the Russians!!!
 
#38
Re: Afghanistan

It actually WAS working really well for the Russians. Until we halted their ownership of the skies. Once we gave them stingers and the Muj started dropping helo's and CAS aircraft, things started to turn around in a big way. All those free guns, bullets, and training didn't hurt...

But the scortched earth WAS working. It is a viable COIN strategy, it just takes some pretty evil bastards to run it. The Soviets were. I mean, colorful airdropped mines that were designed to maim children so their parents were too busy to taking care of them to fight....That's some pretty heavy shit...
 
#40
Re: Afghanistan

Really, has any of our foreign policy since 1946 been worth a shit? I can see the brush wars in Central and South America, trying to keep communism out of the Americas, would Russia have really tried to invade Western Europe? I was to young to understand the fear of communism, or the why (born in 82). But I do remember the collapse of the Berlin Wall on TV and doing nuclear air raid, get under your desk drills in 1st and 2nd grade.

If we would have stayed out of the Iran-Iraq war, and not propped up the Shaw (sp?), then if we wouldnt of let Pakistan circle jerk us around after Zia killed Bhutto, would we be in Afghanistan right now? Would the whole middle east hate us? Not trying to be sarcastic, honestly want to know.

It seems to me we helped create the environment that is now Afghanistan. We let Pakistan fund whoever they wanted to with our money, they funded foreign fighters instead a lot of the local tribesman. Creating a huge influx of people that just wanted to control through fear and power. As bad as what the Russians were doing was, if we would of let them do it, where would be? If we would have stayed the first time and tried to stabilize the country by not letting the radicals have a safe haven, by building schools and educating the populace, it seems to me we would be 20+ years into the 40 year time line of wealth, freedom and knowledge that was posted above.

Would pulling out completely and leaving special ops in Afghanistan to kill who needed to be killed (terrorist training camps, Bin Laden 2 etc) and the occasional uav strike, would that work? Or would it be better to train villagers to protect the village and not rely on the taliban to do it. So the villagers could supply their own security and to hell with a centralized govt there?
 
#41
Re: Afghanistan

That last part is what we ARE trying to do right now, but failing at that miserably as well. Instead, we are training, arming, and funding MORE insurgents that just happen to not be shooting at US this week, so that when we leave, there will be a large number of trained, well armed, organized groups around to really add fuel to the Civil War fire...
 
#42
Re: Afghanistan

Seriously...no one has tried bacon over there. Case in point:

During OEF VII, a certain local national laundry worker, aged 46 was leaving work and very hungry. We will call him 'Crazy'. Well some Soldiers who he was very friendly with had some leftover breakfast to share, but with one caveat...it was bacon. Now Crazy, he was hungry, but exclaimed,"I am Muslim, I do not eat bacon. I am hungry!" The SOldiers pressed just a little by saying,"Crazy, you have a choice. You can be a hungry Muslim, or you can be full of good peace, eat the bacon"
Well Crazy WAS hungry, he looks furtively around, and then asks..."This bacon is good?" Oh yes Crazy, bacon is GOOD! Well crazy takes a slice, making sure no one can see him of Muslim decent, and eats a slice of bacon. After a moment, his eyes light up,"OH WOW! This bacon is GOOD! I am not such a Muslim but bacon is GOOD!" Crazy left work that day with a full belly, a smile, and a wish for bacon every day he left after that. Last I heard, a small group of Soldiers is trying to sponsor his trip to the US to become a US citizen... He has supposedly became quite the baconhead and like has stated that bacon is the key to world peace
 
#43
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Switchblade</div><div class="ubbcode-body">bacon is the key to world peace </div></div>LOL!
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I am working on a COIN power-point flow chart with this in mind. It should go over big at my next presentation.
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BTW: Agreed that scorched-earth has be used as a COIN policy, but I disagree that it is effective or useful in the long term. I've spoken with Russians who fought in Afghanistan, and the Soviet/Russian method of waging war is - dare I say - less corporate, less regulated, and with less direction from above than one would expect.
 
#45
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Switchblade</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I challengge anyone to find me a room full of men who eat bacon for breakfast, and drink bourbon at night who by nature are not peaceful men...until you threaten to take away their bacon, bourbon, or guns</div></div>

man if that isnt the truth!!!
 
#46
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Switchblade</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Bacon is the key to world peace. Everyone who loves bacon is usually peacefull. If they ate bacon, there would be world peace.
wink.gif
</div></div>
mind if I quote you on that for my new sig?
 
#47
Re: Afghanistan

It's an old story: The failure of COIN campaigns is often blamed on the unwillingness of military commanders to be ruthless. To the people on this Thread who are blaming the media, or the civilian leadership, or the 'softenss' of the politics of military leadership, I give the example of Morocco in the 1920's:

The failure to achieve a quick and/or decisive vistory over the Riff was not due to kidd gloves on the part of French and Spanish forces. In fact, their respective foreign legions committed atrocities of all kinds against the indigenous population, including wholescale raising of entire villages.

The Moroccans were also considered to be 'savages' against whom anything was permissible. And at that time the Geneva convention had not been signed and the International Court not yet established.

So, what happened? Why did blasting them into the stone age not work?

In the words of Ben Stein: "...anyone.....anyone... Beuler??!!"
 
#48
#49
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Switchblade</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I challengge anyone to find me a room full of men who eat bacon for breakfast, and drink bourbon at night who by nature are not peaceful men...until you threaten to take away their bacon, bourbon, or guns</div></div>

I didn't know I was a pacifist until I read this!
 
#50
Re: Afghanistan

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mustafa</div><div class="ubbcode-body">That last part is what we ARE trying to do right now, but failing at that miserably as well. Instead, we are training, arming, and funding MORE insurgents that just happen to not be shooting at US this week, so that when we leave, there will be a large number of trained, well armed, organized groups around to really add fuel to the Civil War fire... </div></div>

Not shooting at us this week? What do you call a Major & Lt. Col. shot in the head behind a locked combination door at the Interior Ministry? IMHO that was the day we should have taken out X billion dollars in "humanitarian aide and infrastructure" out of that country.

How many billions exactly are WE spending there per year, on money our government
has borrowed at WHAT interest rate, for a population of how many? You don't need to be a Nobel peace prize winner to figure out the corrupt government we imposed on that country will never work because of their deep-rooted culture. I'd be curious what cents (or fraction of) each $1K aide make it down to the "people" . They never see the aide, or fractions of it, so why would they trust us? We have given them ideas on how they can make their country work, but the failure of forcing our concepts on their people is proof they need to decide for themselves what they can accept and then need to sort it out themselves. ZL and people that have been there seem to have a pretty good grasp of what might work; somebody should pay attention to comments his and
keep a log, and present it to the people that will be reinforcing that structure once we are out - be it tribal leaders, gang warlords, Taliban or a combination of them to decide what will work within the constraints of their religious and cultural complexity.'They need help with that? Sure, if their people/"true" leaders there ask for it then send them ten of our current administration's best logistics people to help them sort out the details but
police them? No. Troops out except whatever SF element needed to prevent any acts of terror to our country and citizens.

Sounds like they were headed for civil war anyway and may still be after we leave - civil wars and civil unrest (not military coups) usually happen for a reason and may be in that country's best interest - if that's the case let's stay out of it. I guess it's too late to take out donated combat (oh, excuse me, that's not PC, II meant "peace-keeping") equipment out.

BTW mustafa I think we are on same page, I just took your quote out of context to make a cynical point.
 
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