Are we past the peak prices?

[Muriner]

Not sure whether this belongs here or in the Bear pit but here it is.

I was picking up a new rifle from my FFL last week and I started bitching to him about firearm prices. He told me that he actually saw a small drop in AR pricing from the peak highs. I have no reason to doubt him, he has a lot of stuff going through his shop but I have to say I was surprised given the elections and stuff. Did you notice this too?

 

[AngryKoala]

I think it depends on the result of the election, impending legislation from a Biden/Harris administration (hope Trump pulls off a miracle) and impending mandates due to Covid.

I think if Biden becomes president the nationwide shutdown will occur. Gunshops/manufacturers may or may not be deemed essential. I think it will get worse before it gets better "if", Biden is elected.

Right now I think we are in sort of a lull, quiet before the storm. I hope I am wrong.

It is why my dumbass just dropped 1800 on a Arsenal AK because I am not confident in the future.

 

[tate1976]

nope. if biden gets in it will only get worse

 

[Qazwsx]

There’s no “if Biden wins”. He won, wishful thinking in the Republican Party is denialism. That denialism means there is still pent up demand because lots of folk have their head in the clouds, or am radio, whichever...

prices will march upwards, if the republicans hold the senate, they may level off. If legislation includes confiscation, prices will drop for guns with paper. Ftf sales will command a premium.

my best guess anyway

 

[Muriner]

My thought process was the same and I don't see prices dropping for at least a year or two (hence I blew my budget on new toys), that's why I was surprised.

As far as some draconian legislation, the chances of it going through the Senate AND SCOTUS are zero, so I'm not concerned there. However, there is a lot of shit that can be done administratively - make everything NFA, redefine what's a firearm (no more online sales of uppers, for example), etc.

 

[Greg Langelius *]

I got lucky, and did my purchasing out of the incentive payment. Things were available, and prices were only starting their rise. Some folks saw this coming. I'm not one of them.

If that gentleman with his sights set on the White House gets his way, my investments were totally in vain. I may not be alone in that.

Some days, life is that way.

 

[RUTGERS95]

only due to availability of ammo. If people can't find ammo, they are not going to buy as many or it may dissuade new shooters. Looking at prices of ammo has me shaking me head and what it must be like for new shooters

 

[chongoMT]

There’s no “if Biden wins”. He won, wishful thinking in the Republican Party is denialism. That denialism means there is still pent up demand because lots of folk have their head in the clouds, or am radio, whichever...

prices will march upwards, if the republicans hold the senate, they may level off. If legislation includes confiscation, prices will drop for guns with paper. Ftf sales will command a premium.

my best guess anyway

There’s no “if Biden wins”. He won, wishful thinking in the Republican Party is denialism. That denialism means there is still pent up demand because lots of folk have their head in the clouds, or am radio, whichever...

prices will march upwards, if the republicans hold the senate, they may level off. If legislation includes confiscation, prices will drop for guns with paper. Ftf sales will command a premium.

my best guess anyway

Biden won? Prove it with science please.
As for the top of the market prices, that is all speculation. We may have seen the upper end of firearms prices, but only the beginning of ammo prices and gouging. 80% kits and land to train and shoot with privacy will become premiums.

Fun fact, I won this disagreement. It feels really good to just put shit out and claim it as fact, probably gonna make this a new thing.

 

[RTH1800]

Really feel for the guys who just decided to get into reloading.

 

[chongoMT]

And the folks just starting to buy AR's and ammo.

 

[TxWelder35]

There’s no “if Biden wins”. He won, wishful thinking in the Republican Party is denialism. That denialism means there is still pent up demand because lots of folk have their head in the clouds, or am radio, whichever...

prices will march upwards, if the republicans hold the senate, they may level off. If legislation includes confiscation, prices will drop for guns with paper. Ftf sales will command a premium.

my best guess anyway

Biden hasn’t won shit yet. Lots has happened in the past week and more will happen next week. Fat lady ain’t sang yet, and when she does it’s possible trump is gonna be on stage

 

[W54/XM-388]

Part of it may also be the supply of money is a lot less plentiful for the normal serfs as the Elites have destroyed the economy for the small folks with the gleeful help of the government.

More than likely a lot of people understand they need to be able to afford more than just guns and ammo to prepare for the darkness ahead.

my favourite LGS for the past 6 months has been seeing people wanting to get armed up... but only if it was affordable.

 

[hesp]

Please don't let your self get down. . I promise you President Trump will pull this off. I can go into why but won't at this point. Trump WILL win & freedom will triumph. Prices & supply will return to normal levels. Just watch. It will take some time but will slowly turn around.. Righteousness will prevail....

 

[chongoMT]

It is surprising that we can get a vaccine in less than 1 year for a new virus (skeptic), but we can't get enough ammo for the election based increase in purchases. Every 4 years and then some we go through something like this and we can't get the manufacturers to plus up production in anticipation.

 

[r.tenorio671]

.."speculation" is what drives advance buying, people speculating on who will occupy the WH, what incoming legislators may/will do with existing laws and modifications to them or totally new laws, availability of supplies for manufacturers and any speculation of how much those supplies will cost them (and therefore the consumers)...once can never tell. Ammo and/or reloading components would be MY biggest priorities over new firearms, have to feed what I already have. Spare and replacement parts for what I already have would be the second priority, need to keep it all functional and maintain it's reliability. IMHO, if and that's a big IF, any attempt at seizure of already owned personal property was to occur, your currently owned property will most likely be grandfathered in, but if not, well .....

 

[BullGear]

January 20th will determine the prices for 2021. I don't see prices coming down that much even if Trump is sworn in to a second term. Fudds may have realized the error of their ways and sad to say, I do believe theri is an arm of the Demwits who have saddled up and are prepping now.

It will be interesting to see. I'm excited and a little concerned. I have a grandson who I'm fighting for.

 

[LRRPF52]

It’s all about the ammo. I just had a conversation with a local gun store that is part of a National chain. Not even their two wholesalers can get ammo or primers. All Hornady dies except .45 Long Colt were sold out. He showed me on their dealer ordering screen. Everything was 0 in stock, no order available.

2020 makes post-Sandy Hook 2013 look like a normal day at the beach. It has been a mega-storm of pre-election jitters x 10, COVID-19 BS/hype, ANTIFA and BLM riots scaring a lot of people into becoming first-time buyers, defund the police, plus the election fraud.

If you’re just trying to get prepared in the firearms department, it’s probably too late unless you have money to burn. I watched some young millennials walk into Cabella’s last weekend with smiles on their faces, thinking that they were getting prepared by purchasing whatever was left in the counter in terms of handguns (slim pickings). Good luck on finding ammo. No training? Don’t worry, it’s just like in the movies, right? How hard can it be?

We’re into 3 generations of people who were conditioned to be accustomed to push-button solutions, that don’t understand what actual work is or how raw violent encounters can be up close and personal. Most of the gun owners have limited-to-no skills with a firearm because the idea of shooting more rounds in training sessions over 2-3 days than the cost of the firearm itself is totally foreign to them, as is competent instruction.

Peak preparedness is what you should be looking at, not peak prices. The opportunity for peak preparedness sailed long ago. Food is next.

 

[Qazwsx]

See, pent up demand all over the place.

 

[BullGear]

Not price related, but we have seen 1000% increase of folks coming into the gun stores and thinking they could walk into the store and in 15 minutes walk out with their handgun. The employees laugh because it would seem that none of these Left Wing Radicals knew about the HQL (Handgun Qualification License), which calls for classroom and live fire before they can buy a handgun.

Guess what? Those classes are filled well into next Summer.

 

[Qazwsx]

Don’t forget places like North Carolina still have Jim crow pistol purchase permits

 

[Huskydriver]

Bahahahahahaha...the peak??? Bahahahahahaha you're funny op

 

[uffduh]

There’s no “if Biden wins”. He won, wishful thinking in the Republican Party is denialism. That denialism means there is still pent up demand because lots of folk have their head in the clouds, or am radio, whichever...

prices will march upwards, if the republicans hold the senate, they may level off. If legislation includes confiscation, prices will drop for guns with paper. Ftf sales will command a premium.

my best guess anyway

I thought that we’d seen the back side of Tahoe

 

[r.tenorio671]

It’s all about the ammo. I just had a conversation with a local gun store that is part of a National chain. Not even their two wholesalers can get ammo or primers. All Hornady dies except .45 Long Colt were sold out. He showed me on their dealer ordering screen. Everything was 0 in stock, no order available.

2020 makes post-Sandy Hook 2013 look like a normal day at the beach. It has been a mega-storm of pre-election jitters x 10, COVID-19 BS/hype, ANTIFA and BLM riots scaring a lot of people into becoming first-time buyers, defund the police, plus the election fraud.

If you’re just trying to get prepared in the firearms department, it’s probably too late unless you have money to burn. I watched some young millennials walk into Cabella’s last weekend with smiles on their faces, thinking that they were getting prepared by purchasing whatever was left in the counter in terms of handguns (slim pickings). Good luck on finding ammo. No training? Don’t worry, it’s just like in the movies, right? How hard can it be?

We’re into 3 generations of people who were conditioned to be accustomed to push-button solutions, that don’t understand what actual work is or how raw violent encounters can be up close and personal. Most of the gun owners have limited-to-no skills with a firearm because the idea of shooting more rounds in training sessions over 2-3 days than the cost of the firearm itself is totally foreign to them, as is competent instruction.

Peak preparedness is what you should be looking at, not peak prices. The opportunity for peak preparedness sailed long ago. Food is next.

...many valid points made in your observation about timeliness (Y)
...if one is going out now expending ammo to "train" on a new firearm that is the same caliber of something they already have and trained up on, it's a drain of limited resources that may be difficult to resupply
...even if you have money to burn, it too becomes a moot point if the resource you seek to buy isn't readily available
....if you survive the first "raw" encounter, you might survive subsequent encounters IF you learned from that first one
...pre or post -preparedness, remain flexible bcuz when "plans" fall apart in chaotic scenarios, being dogmatic will surely end in disaster..
...trust is an easy word to mouth, but even harder to determine the limits of who to extend it to, even harder to determine to receive it from when SHTF..

 

[RUTGERS95]

Not price related, but we have seen 1000% increase of folks coming into the gun stores and thinking they could walk into the store and in 15 minutes walk out with their handgun. The employees laugh because it would seem that none of these Left Wing Radicals knew about the HQL (Handgun Qualification License), which calls for classroom and live fire before they can buy a handgun.

Guess what? Those classes are filled well into next Summer.

yet getting a card to show who you are to vote in infringement. I find what you posted so unreal and sad.

That said, maybe this is good as it will make people wake up to a degree

 

[BullGear]

yet getting a card to show who you are to vote in infringement. I find what you posted so unreal and sad.

That said, maybe this is good as it will make people wake up to a degree

Not a chance, I live in Maryland and we call it the Socialist Republic of Maryland for a reason.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Not a chance, I live in Maryland and we call it the Socialist Republic of Maryland for a reason.

New Jermany here...lol

 

[bfoosh006]

I doubt we are past the peak prices.

IMHO, there has only been a lull in panic buying because the Anti Gunny folk have kept their mouths shut.

Just one public "official" comment, that shows their true intent... means we will start from now, all over again.

Every time they have failed, they get more sly... they do learn from their mistakes.

Soon enough, they will attempt a "Blitz" approach. Attempting to ban as much as possible... MSR parts, online ammo sales, , basically a lot of things we take for granted.

Whether or not they succeed, is up to us, the Supreme Court, and Pro firearm people.

 

[BytorJr]

Kicking my own ass for not stocking up on 40 bucks a box 143g ELD-X at BPS 3 days ago.

 

[BullGear]

The time to buy it is when you see it.

 

[BigBabyMoses06]

My LGS prices are nuts. Have seen poverty pony lowers going for $165. Spooky spooky. Would be nice to get ammo again at a reasonable price. Right now I have a bunch of really heavy paper weights

 

[Muriner]

Sadly, as far as ammo goes, I think it's going to get way worse before it gets better. It is just insane right now, people are willing to pay ridiculous prices and there is no end in sight. I thought it was bad in Summer - it looks like I had no idea. I stopped buying ammo in August, I just refuse to support this craziness. My current stash should last till mid '21, hopefully things will stabilize by then. If they don't, it'll hurt.

 

[acudaowner]

not yet not at least till 22lr hits 4.00 per round maybe higher

 

[hlee]

Maybe... I just got an email notification that CTD is “blowing out“ 9mm ammunition at $34.89 per 50 round box of Winchester “white box” fmj. Not exactly a deal, but better than the $1 per round they were asking a few weeks ago. Still 3x what I payed a few days ago at my local big box store...

 

[AngryKoala]

I doubt we are past the peak prices.

IMHO, there has only been a lull in panic buying because the Anti Gunny folk have kept their mouths shut.

Just one public "official" comment, that shows their true intent... means we will start from now, all over again.

Every time they have failed, they get more sly... they do learn from their mistakes.

Soon enough, they will attempt a "Blitz" approach. Attempting to ban as much as possible... MSR parts, online ammo sales, , basically a lot of things we take for granted.

Whether or not they succeed, is up to us, the Supreme Court, and Pro firearm people.

Agree 100% with this. Apparently walmart and cabelas still has reasonable prices but they are never in stock.

 

[ToddM]

Not even close, as soon as Biden takes office and his admin starts talking about gun bans, or the first shooting happens and the media goes after guns hardcore again, regardless of if they can get anything passed, panic buying on AR's, mags, etc. is going to go crazy. I'm honestly amazed it has not already done so. I'd bet dollars to donuts that a couple pallets of pmags could make someone a ton of $ in 6 months. But what do I know, I've only been saying there'd be huge ammo shortages 6-9 months before the election, telling people to stock up, and a couple pallets of ammo could pay off your house, since ammo prices came back down in 2017 and here we are, 9mm that was < $150 a case a year ago now selling for $700 a case.

With ammo stores are doing 1 of 2 things, either they are cranking prices up enough that no one is buying in bulk, ala the $700/1000rds of 9mm, or they are selling at normal prices but never in stock so unless you spend hours a day waiting to jump sales there's little hope of cheap ammo for the next 4+ years. This time around more stores seem to be doing the high prices thing than during Obama. My guess is we won't see ammo prices come down significantly for at least 2+ years. It never got back to normal during Obama, so as long as DNC holds the president office it won't get better. Also it seems like manufacturers have adopted higher prices, so those will likely never go back down.

It's not rocket science, we learned all of this during Obama, he also didn't get any real gun control passed, and we still had high prices and shortages for 6+ years. The only thing that's changed, is the media is even more against guns, and so are Biden and Harris. Biden was a ground floor player in both the 94 AWB and Brady he's on the same gun page that his buddy Feinstein is. Look at panic buyers and TP, Paper Towels, and hand sanitizer, things Covid doesn't even impact the manufacturing of. If you think gun/ammo buyers are going to be any better.....well I give you the last 9 months of ammo shortages and 500% increase in 9mm prices.

 

[Dildobaggins]

Here it goes. Election not over...biden won though, it is over in that sense. If reps keep the Senate, prices will hopefully go back to some what normal. Even if they didn't, the supreme court will shut down pretty much any attempt to do anything. The price increase or drop comes down to 1 thing and one thing only. SUPPLY AND DEMAND. In the first 3 months of the pandemic over 2 million guns were sold. God knows what the number is now. But the vast majority of panic buyers dont have the black rifle disease. So they will be one and done. Prices will drop. When that happens though I wish I knew.

 

[GONE BAD]

Actually it doesn't matter to me. I have enough right now to take whatever I need later! SHTF is going to be FREE STUFF for me

 

[LRRPF52]

Here it goes. Election not over...biden won though, it is over in that sense. If reps keep the Senate, prices will hopefully go back to some what normal. Even if they didn't, the supreme court will shut down pretty much any attempt to do anything. The price increase or drop comes down to 1 thing and one thing only. SUPPLY AND DEMAND. In the first 3 months of the pandemic over 2 million guns were sold. God knows what the number is now. But the vast majority of panic buyers dont have the black rifle disease. So they will be one and done. Prices will drop. When that happens though I wish I knew.

We haven’t even had the election yet. Read more Constitution on that. EC hasn’t even convened.

Prices aren’t going back to normal.

There hasn’t been a month lower than 2.7 million NICS checks alone (not counting any private sales) this year. 6 of those months have been over 3 millions NICS per month, and the other 4 months have been 2.7m, 2.8m, 2.9m, and 2.89m. We’ll have November’s NICS figures soon.

 

[Hound Dog]

Maybe... I just got an email notification that CTD is “blowing out“ 9mm ammunition at $34.89 per 50 round box of Winchester “white box” fmj. Not exactly a deal, but better than the $1 per round they were asking a few weeks ago. Still 3x what I payed a few days ago at my local big box store...

Why does any sane person do business with more expensive that dirt?

 

[Dildobaggins]

We haven’t even had the election yet. Read more Constitution on that. EC hasn’t even convened.

Prices aren’t going back to normal.

There hasn’t been a month lower than 2.7 million NICS checks alone (not counting any private sales) this year. 6 of those months have been over 3 millions NICS per month, and the other 4 months have been 2.7m, 2.8m, 2.9m, and 2.89m. We’ll have November’s NICS figures soon.

No, no, we defiantly had an election. "Read more on definition of election on that." The states that matter have certified the election, its techincally not over...but its over. The senate will not use the 12 amendment, thats loony stuff too. Prices can fluctuate. As stated in the aforementioned, its about supply and demand. We had a plandemic and an election. By February of 2021 things will have settled way down. Come back then with those numbers, they will drop. However I will concede my nimber were wrong. I just reread the articel. It was over 8 million.

 

[Dildobaggins]

Sadly, as far as ammo goes, I think it's going to get way worse before it gets better. It is just insane right now, people are willing to pay ridiculous prices and there is no end in sight. I thought it was bad in Summer - it looks like I had no idea. I stopped buying ammo in August, I just refuse to support this craziness. My current stash should last till mid '21, hopefully things will stabilize by then. If they don't, it'll hurt.

I think deer season made the problem worse too. My father will never stock up on ammo. Even after repeated attempts from me to conivnce him. About 2 weeks ago he paid $50 for a box of hornady performance in .270

 

[hlee]

Why does any sane person do business with more expensive that dirt?

That's a good question. For me, getting their flyer in my email is like subscribing to a "joke of the day" club.

But then again, several years ago CTD was the only place I could find that had a decent price on m1 carbine magazines. It was a good price on something that I needed, so I bough it. If its not a good price, I don't buy it- regardless of who is selling, even if it is a "hide vendor."

 

[308pirate]

The senate will not use the 12 amendment, thats loony stuff too. .

You're an idiot. The popular vote and state certifications of such do not elect anyone.

Also, the Senate has nothing to do with the 12th Amendment.

But the 12th Amendment WILL be followed to elect the President.

 

[IanHusaberg]

No. Prices will go up.

 

[hlee]

You're an idiot. The popular vote and state certifications of such do not elect anyone.

Also, the Senate has nothing to do with the 12th Amendment.

But the 12th Amendment WILL be followed to elect the President.

I think that he was referring to this part of the 12th...

"... and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote..."

and, the Senate does have something to do with the 12th...

"... and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice..."

But yeah, as the 12th amendment does proscribe the method of electing the president and vice president, it will be followed.

 

[308pirate]

I think that he was referring to this part of the 12th...

"... and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote..."

and, the Senate does have something to do with the 12th...

"... and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice..."

But yeah, as the 12th amendment does proscribe the method of electing the president and vice president, it will be followed.

I'm not sure that procedure won't be needed...……………..

 

[Alpine 338]

The trend here in Colorado, as I hear from several FFL's and friends in the industry. Budget ARs (like S&W, Rock River, etc) and budget 9mm Pistols (Like Glock, S&W, etc) are still selling like hotcakes. The expensive stuff is still available. Except LMT and KAC AR's are being snatched up at premium prices. I saw an LMT Enhanced Bolt Carrier Group get bid up over $1K on GunBroker last week.

One interesting thing my FFL friends are telling me, the Millennials in general don't want to purchase used guns, they want brand new.

 

[Charger442]

back on topic, the market was FLOODED with ARs for years before this. cheap, expensive whatever. they were flooded. anyone who wanted one could get as many as they could store/afford. There was only a small excess capacity that hadnt hit that upper limit yet on AR demand, and now i think we have hit it.

you're probably going to see a lot of ARs flood the used market in the run-up to christmas. This will bring prices lower or flatten them out in the used and retail markets.

Ammo is another issue all together. and it all depends on what you want, want it for, and how badly you need it.

im personally good for atleast a couple of years, but will pickup match bolt rifle ammo when its available, just like I did today with some Prime 260.

 

[Charger442]

One interesting thing my FFL friends are telling me, the Millennials in general don't want to purchase used guns, they want brand new.

that is interesting. stupid.... but interesting.

 

[308pirate]

One interesting thing my FFL friends are telling me, the Millennials in general don't want to purchase used guns, they want brand new.

I'm guessing that's a combination of most millenials' complete lack of knowledge about firearms compounded with their near complete lack of basic mechanical aptitude.

Who do you think Home Depot aimed this video to?